Climate and Air Quality: Investigating the Impacts of Changing Landscapes Earth and Atmospheric...
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Transcript of Climate and Air Quality: Investigating the Impacts of Changing Landscapes Earth and Atmospheric...
Climate and Air Quality:Investigating the Impacts of Changing Landscapes
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Seminar, Cornell UniversityApril 10, 2013
Colette L. HealdAmos P.K. Tai, Ashley R. Berg, Maria Val Martin
Atmospheric Composition is Linked to Major Environmental Issues
AIR QUALITY / HEALTH VISIBILITY ACID RAIN
CROP DAMAGE OZONE LAYERTOXIC
ACCUMULATION
CLIMATE
FERTILIZATION
Air Pollution is a Serious and Growing Public Health Issue
Number of people living in counties with air pollutant concentrations above EPA
Air Quality Standards in 2008
Fine particulate matter (complex chemical
composition)
Global premature deaths from environmental risk
[OECD, 2012]
Fine particulate
matter
Currently over 125 million Americans experience “unhealthy” air.By 2030 AQ surpasses unsafe water as the leading environmental cause of premature deaths.
Reminders from around the World of Linkages Between Air Pollution and Climate Change or Emissions
Summer 2010 Fires in Russia
55,000+ estimated deaths from smog and heatwave
Beijing “Airpocalypse” (Winter 2013)
Clear Day February 27, 2013
PM concentrations sky rocket. Remain high for several weeks. US Embassy tweets report
concentrations “beyond index” above 700 µg/m3 (EPA daily standard is 35 µg/m3).
EMISSIONS(natural & anthropogenic) CLIMATE
LAND USE CHANGE(natural & anthropogenic)
Atmospheric Composition(Air Quality)
[Tai et al., submitted]
Climate Change Alone Degrades Mean Air Quality over Continental Regions: The So-Called “Climate Penalty”
2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone
Ozone is predicted to increase over polluted continental regions (meteorological factors + natural emission changes) and decrease over the ocean (due to enhanced water vapour) as
predicted by Wu et al. [2008] and others.Offsets benefits from emissions control.
GISS+GEOS-Chem
0
1
2
3
Normalized isoprene emission
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
400 800 1200
A Critical Factor in the “Climate Penalty”: Isoprene Emissions
O3
Driver for many predictions of increasing ozone, organic aerosol
and methane increases [eg. Sanderson et al., 2003; Heald et al.,
2008; Shindell et al., 2007]
CO2 inhibition implies that isoprene emissions may stay ~ constant [Heald et al., 2009].
Need to revise future air quality projections!
Present-day level
2050 level
[Possell & Hewitt 2011]
Future: NPP ↑, Temperature↑ = Isoprene ↑
BUT CO2 inhibits Isoprene Emission!
CO2 Inhibition of Isoprene Emissions Reduces Ozone Sensitivity to Climate Change
Without CO2
effect
With CO2
effect
With minus without
2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone
In major populated regions, projected ozone increase due to climate change (max +6 ppbv) is
reduced by >50% (to max +3 ppbv) due to CO2 inhibition of isoprene
emission.
[Tai et al., submitted]
As a Result, Land Use Change and Climate ~Equal Players in Determining Ozone Air Quality
Land use change effect
2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone
Climate change effect
2000-to-2050 change in cropland fraction (IPCC A1B)
Land use change can offset or reverse in sign the effect of climate change on
ozone air quality.
Air quality control strategies needs to consider all three of emissions, land
use change and climate.
[Tai et al., submitted]
Climate and Air Quality Impacts on Global Crop Productivity?
f(temperature) f(O3 concentration) f(cropland area)
Rel
ativ
e Y
ield
[Mills et al. 2007]
Wheat
Ozone exposure (ppm-hour)
Tmax
Tmean
Thigh
Tbase
Day since 1 June
°C
based on Butler and Huybers
[2013]
tolerant
sensitive
Snap peas damage due to O3 exposure)Illinois heatwave summer 2012
Relative Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Pollution on Wheat Production
2000 global wheat production(103 ton/grid cell)
Under IPCC AR5 RCP8.5, using CESM ozone and climate
[Tai et al. in prep]
2050 change due to ozone pollution 2050 combined production change
2050 change due to climate change
Large sensitivity in future crop productivity to ozone pollution & climate change (± 25% regionally). Needs to be included along-side land use change and farming practices when
considering 21st century food security.
Bark Beetle Infestation in Western North AmericaWorst beetle outbreak in recorded history: peaked in BC in 2007 and in the Western US in 2009
[Kurz et al., 2008]
Over 100,000 km2 of forest killed, continued expansion.
Impacts: carbon cycling, fire susceptibility.
What about air quality?
VOCs ↓Mortality Effect↑Attack Effect
VOCs?O3
Bark Beetles Perturbing Monoterpene Emissions
Very few quantitative studies have been done
Amin et al. (2012; 2013) measure emissions from Lodgepole pine (and
spruce) under attack by mountain pine beetle, see significant
enhancements of some emissions.
Estimated Impacts on Monoterpene Emissions
Largest impact of MPB on monoterpene emissions in British Columbia in 2004
(increase up to 70%) and in 2008 in US (increase up to 104%).
Mortality Effect
Mortality Effect + Attack Effect
VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS
(CLM4)
ANNUALMORTALITY
(Meddens et al., 2012)
EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES
(Amin et al., 2012)
VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1)
(Guenther et al., 2012)
β-pinene, β-phellandrene, 3-carene, P-cymene
2004
2008
Estimated Impacts on Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation
[Berg et al., 2013]
Mortality Effect
Mortality Effect + Attack Effect
2004
2008
VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS
(CLM4)
ANNUALMORTALITY
(Meddens et al., 2012)
EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES
(Amin et al., 2012)
VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1)
(Guenther et al., 2012)
CHAMBER SOA YIELDS (6-55%)
(Lee et al., 2006)
More muted impact on SOA (~30-40% max increases) but also more regional.
Dependent on very uncertain species-variable response: scenario using spruce
data shows up to doubling of SOA (1 µgm-3 increase). This is comparable to
the estimate of “natural” aerosol background implications for
achieving EPA Regional Haze Rule
Evidence of importance of land use change in air quality.
September 11, 2005BEFORE
September 28, 2011AFTER
5 km5 km
Grand Grand Lake, COLake, CO
Grand Grand Lake, COLake, CO
High Park fire in Colorado (June 2012) burned in area of 70% beetle-killed trees
Bark Beetle Kill in Western US Raising Fire Susceptibility?
(links between climate change, land use and air quality)
2012: Most Destructive Fires in Colorado History, with Air Quality Implications
High Park Fire (June 2012)
Waldo Canyon Fire (July 2012)
Many local exceedances of daily PM2.5 standard (over 100 µg/m3 measured in Fort Collins!)How often do these events occur?
PM2.5 at Fort Collins (near High Park Fire)
Decadal Satellite Record Shows Large Aerosol Anomalies Associated with Both Local and Transported Smoke
June 2002MODIS Terra AOD anomalies
August 2012
Hayman Fire
High Park andWaldo Fires
AZ Wallow Fire(2011)
MT, WY, ID, WA FiresAZ, CA
Fires
CA Station Fire(2009)
Vertical Distribution of Wildfire Smoke
Smoke heights measured by MISR satellite for High Park Fire
Smoke plumesSmoke clouds
Smoke plumes (esp for energetic fires) are injected aloft.But smoke clouds also observed near surface.
Air quality impacts depend on whether aerosol reaches surface
[val Martin et al., submitted]
CALIOP aerosol profile over Colorado
Future Smoke Impacts on PM
2000 2050
Increased area burned results in ~150% increase in BC and OC fire emissions
Projected annual total biomass burned
[Yue et al, submitted]
Future PM2.5 may stay constant over western US due to increased fire activity!
PM2.5PM2.5 Fires
[val Martin et al., in prep]
[Westerling et al, 2007]
A Final Word on Land Use Change: Natural Land Use Change is Highly
UncertainSame land model (CLM) driven by 8 different climate projections Very sensitive to precip
[Alo and Wang, 2008]
LAI (2100-2000)
[mm]
CONCLUSIONS
Funding Acknowledgements:
The ozone “climate penalty” is not as severe as previously suggested. Land use change and climate change are equally
important in determining near-term air quality (2050).
Initial results suggest that both ozone pollution and climate change can substantially impact crop production by 2050.
Pine beetle infestation in W North America over the last decade estimated to be responsible for up to 40% increases in SOA. Large
uncertainties in emissions response.
Smoke from wildfires in the W. US results in both local and regional air quality degradation. Increasing wildfire activity may cancel out
emissions control benefits for PM air quality in the W. US.
Land use change is the most challenging driver of atmospheric composition to predict, and is a key uncertainty in chemistry-
climate projections.