Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, May 2013 Overcoming Policy Constraints to Achieve...

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Shenggen Fan, May 2013

Overcoming Policy Constraints to Achieve National Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plans

Shenggen FanDirector General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Agriculture Policy Exchange and Learning EventDakar, Senegal | May 16, 2013



African economies and agriculture are rapidly being transformed, but progress is uneven

Weak policymaking and research capacities, and poor data are key constraints

Strengthening capacities is essential for meeting agricultural investment targets

Key messages

Rapid transformation of economies and agriculture,

but progress is uneven



Rapid economic growth

Real GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA

Zambia

Angola

Tanzania

Malawi

Lesotho

Nigeria

Mozambique

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Ghana

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Average annual real GDP/capita growth, SSA, 2008-2012 (%)

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

-2

0

2

4

6Real GDP/capita Annual real GDP/capita growth (right)

2005

US

$

Per

cen

t

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110

15

30

45

Bil

lio

ns

(cu

rren

t U

S$)

Source: ERS, USDA 2012 Source: World Bank 2013

Large opportunities also from

• Agriculture

• Natural resources

• Urbanization…Source: ERS, USDA 2012



Accelerating agricultural growth

Average annual agricultural growth, SSA

2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-20111.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Pe

rce

nt

Value of agriculture and food exports, developing Africa

20002002

20042006

20082010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Agric raw materialsFood

Bill

ion

s (

US

$)

Source: UNCTAD 2013 Source: World Bank 2013

New initiatives for agricultural transformation e.g.• Agricultural Transformation Agency in Ethiopia; Agricultural transformation

agenda in Nigeria



BUT poverty and undernutrition remain high

Source: Ravallion (2013)

Number and prevalence of poverty, SSA

Number and prevalence of undernourishment in SSA

Source: FAOSTAT 2013

Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, Africa

Vitamin A-deficiency• Over 30% of preschool

age children

Anemia• 60% of pregnant women

Source: HarvestPlus 2011

1990 1999 2008 20150

200

400

600

800

0

20

40

60

80Number of poor

Poverty rate (right)

Mil

lio

ns

Per

cen

t

1990-92 1998-00 2006-08 2010-120

100

200

300

0

10

20

30

40Number of undernourishedPrevalence (right)

Mil

lio

ns

Per

cen

t



Alger

ia

Benin

Burkin

a Fas

o

Camer

oon

Centra

l Afri

can

Rep.

Comor

os

Congo

, Rep

.

Djibou

ti

Equat

oria

l Gui

nea

Ethio

pia

Gambi

a, T

he

Guine

a

Kenya

Libe

ria

Mad

agas

car

Mal

i

Mau

ritiu

s

Moz

ambi

queNig

er

Rwanda

Seneg

al

Sierra

Leo

ne

South

Afri

ca

Sudan

Tanza

nia

Tunisi

a

Zambi

a0

5

10

15

20

10% CAADP investment target remains largely unmet

Average annual agriculture expenditure share in total spending, 2003-2010 (%)

• Only 8 countries have met CAADP 10% investment target• 26 countries have signed investment plans

Source: Benin (IFPRI) 2013



Agricultural R&D spending is volatile

Agricultural R&D spending volatility, 2000-08

Source: Beintema et al. 2012



Dominance of ideology over evidence in policymaking

Emphasis on short-term agric. investments (e.g. subsidies)

over long-term investments (e.g. R&D)

Limited cooperation among countries in e.g.

• Agricultural research and technology development• Infrastructure development• Trade policy

Limited network of researchers, policy analysts, and policymakers

AND many barriers to overall progress remain (policy related)



Weak policymaking and research capacities, and poor data

are key constraints



Policymaking capacities remain weak

Weak capacity in policymaking and strategy formulation

Weak capacity in setting investment priorities and designing investment plans

Inadequate support for research for improved policymaking

Underinvestment in monitoring and evaluation

Evidence-based policymaking is critical



Lack of critical mass of well-qualified researchers

Long-term public sector recruitment restrictions • Senior research staff retirement without clear line of

succession

Low salaries and conditions of service in public agricultural R&D institutes• High staff turn over and “brain drain”

Limited in-country post-graduate training opportunities

Low levels of female participation in research

Research capacity challenges are high



Large variation in food policy research capacity

Mozambique

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Uganda

Tanzania

Zambia*

Niger*

Burundi*

Madagascar*

Malawi

Benin

Nigeria

Mali

Kenya

Zimbabwe*

Senegal

Liberia

Ghana

Togo

South Africa

Swaziland

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Full-time equivalent analysts/researchers with PhD equivalent per million rural population, 2011

Nigeria

Rwanda

Niger*

Senegal

Malawi

Tanzania

Madagascar*

Swaziland

Ethiopia

Uganda

Zambia*

Togo

Kenya

Zimbabwe*

Ghana

Mozambique

Benin

South Africa

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Source: Babu and Dorosh (IFPRI) 2013

Publications per full-time equivalent analysts/researchers with PhD equivalent, 2007-11



Reliable and timely data is limited

Lack of investments in physical and statistical infrastructure including ICTs and national and sub-national offices

Limited incentives to build up human resource capacity for data collection and analysis

Dearth of data to understand changing agricultural environment

Inadequate feedback from data users

Strengthening capacities is essential for meeting agric. investment targets



1. Strengthen research and policymaking capacities

Improve capacities for strategy formulation, policy design, and implementation

Create incentives and opportunities to attract and retain best talents e.g. on-the-job training, merit-based promotion

Increase support for policy research

Invest in monitoring and evaluation systems

Foster partnerships between national agric. research systems and int’l ones, incl. CGIAR



IFPRI: Strengthening policymaking capacities Africa Wide (ReSAKSS)

Support for CAADP

Provide analysis, data, and tools for evidence-based decision making

Improve awareness of role or agriculture

Fill knowledge gaps

Promote dialogue

Facilitate benchmarking and review processes



Country Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (SAKSS) nodes

Objective: strengthen national capacity for policy analysis, dialogue and review

Country SAKSS nodes to be established include:

• Burkina Faso, Benin, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, Niger, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe



Promote access to and use of state-of-the art modeling tools

Facilitate access to data, improve data quality, bridge data gaps

Support collaboration among leading African scientists

Build dynamic research community that can respond to needs of CAADP’s agenda

IFPRI: Strengthening policymaking capacities (AGRODEP)

Key components: Shared modeling infrastructure, common database platform, network of experts, community of practitioners



Ethiopia Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. agricultural growth options and prioritization of public

investment; determinants of food price shocks

• Capacity strengthening: e.g. economic modeling tools training such as GIS, CGE, micro-econometrics

Ghana Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. options for enhancing rural and urban linkages; analysis of

fertilizer marketing and pricing

• Capacity strengthening: survey and data management technical assistance to Ghana Ministry of Food and Agriculture

Nigeria Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. drivers of public investments; improvements in commodity

value chains;

• Capacity strengthening: e.g. research-cum-training and training courses

IFPRI: Supporting development of country strategies



2. Accelerate investment in national statistical systems

• Increase investments in statistical and physical infrastructure incl. ICTs, statistical software, and national and regional offices

• Increase knowledge and learning on the changing landscape of agriculture

• Expand and strengthen statistical training at high-school and university levels

• Promote transparent codes of conduct on data collection and analysis

• Beef up public knowledge and awareness campaigns on the benefits of evidence-based decision-making



In conclusion

Evidence-based policymaking and strong national capacities are crucial for achieving food and nutrition

security

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