Clean Coal in a post COP21 era · Renewable power capacity at record high with 147 GW installed in...
Transcript of Clean Coal in a post COP21 era · Renewable power capacity at record high with 147 GW installed in...
Clean Coal in a post‐COP21 eraKamel Ben‐Naceur
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2016 International SymposiumTokyo, 7‐8 September 2016
© IEA 2016
Context: Coal in today’s energy system
• The importance and implication of coal today
Generates over 40% of electricity
Can be important for economic & social development & energy security
Produces almost 50% of CO2 emissions & is a key source of air pollution
• China is at the center of the coal world
Responsible for 80% of rise in coal use since 2000 & now half global use
Is world's top coal producer and – until recently – largest importer
• After a decade of growth, global coal use halted in 2014 and is declining in 2015
Coal prices are at decade lows on a glut of supply & tepid demand
© IEA 2016
CIF Prices in North West Europe (ARA)
Global overcapacity and weaker than expected demand look set to put further downward pressure on coal prices through 2020
Context: Coal prices keep hitting new lows
Development of thermal coal prices
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New supply capacity meets slowing demand
© IEA 2016
• First clear signs of decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP Global energy‐related CO2 emissions flattened in 2014‐2015 despite
growing GDP Renewable power capacity at record high with 147 GW installed in
2015
• COP21 provided a historic push for clean energy Start of a new era of collaboration: Country‐based approaches preferred to
top‐down regulation New goals put forward – going beyond what everyone already considered
challenging when our first ETP was released in 2006
Context: Global Emissions and Renewables
© IEA 2016
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Context: Wind and PV Downward price trends continuing rapidly
Best results occur where price competition, long‐term contracts and good resource availability are combined
Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned over 2016-2019
Chile
© IEA 2016
Context: Renewable Energydeployment prospects
With recent policy changes, 35% of gap between main and accelerated case is bridged
World renewable power annual capacity additions, main vs. accelerated case
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Historical AcceleratedPost COP21
MTRMR 2015-Main case October 2015Post- COP21 March 2016
RM2
The COP21 Agreement in Paris
LONG‐TERM MITIGATION GOAL
• Temperature goal "well below" 2°C, and pursue efforts to limit to 1.5°C
• To achieve the temperature goal, Parties aim to reach a peaking of global emissions as soon as possible, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter so as to achieve a balance between emissions and removals by sinks in the second half of this century (i.e. net‐zero emissions but these words were not used).
• Parties are encouraged to develop and communicate national long‐term low greenhouse gas development strategies.
© IEA 2016
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two‐thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Addressing the COP21 challenge
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GtCO2
Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
© IEA 2016
Re‐thinking electricity supply
• Generation today:• Fossil fuels: 68%• Renewables: 22%
Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 67% Fossil fuels: 17%
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Biofuels and waste
Nuclear
Coal with CCS
Coal
Oil
Natural gas with CCS
Natural gas
Low‐carbon share
Innovation can support a multitude of sustainable energy solutions
Primary energy mix in the ETP scenarios
Fossil fuels remain an important part of global energy supply in the 2DS with a 45% share in 2050
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6DS 4DS 2DS
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Other renewables
Hydro
Biomass and waste
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
RM3
© IEA 2016
Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal‐fired power
Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On trackClean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal,
but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate
© IEA 2016
Action can begin today
Five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, and including a reduction in inefficient coal to peak then reduce global energy emissions.
•Five measures save almost 5 Gt of emissions by 2030 & achieve a global emissions peak by 2020, without harming economic growth & using only proven technologies
Energy efficiency
49%
Reducinginefficient coal
Reducinginefficient coal
Renewablesinvestment
Upstream methanereductions
Fossil‐fuelsubsidy reform
17%
15%
10%
Emissions savings in the Bridge Scenario by measure, 2030
9%
© IEA 2016
The economic benefit of improved power generation efficiency is partly offsetting weak low‐carbon policies
© OECD/IEA 2015
Carbon intensity of coal‐fired power generation
The use of fossil fuels is graduallymore efficient and sustainable
© IEA 2016
but unabated coal use is rising …
Unabated coal use in electricity generation is incompatible with 2DS objectives
ETP 2014, 2015
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CO2 intensityin 2DS
Subcritical
Supercritical
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Ultra‐supercritical+post combcapture
We will need CCS to make coal “low‐carbon”
Coal: ‘High efficient‐low emissions’?
© IEA 2016
What kind of potential exists to retrofit CCS on China’s existing coal‐fired power fleet?
Analysis partners:China Electricity Council (CEC)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)International Energy Agency (IEA)
Facilitated by:Administrative Centre for China’s
Agenda 21 (ACCA21)
https://www.iea.org/publications/insights/insightpublications/ready‐for‐ccs‐retrofit‐.html
Coal: ‘Unlocking’ in China
© IEA 2016
310GW of plant ‘suitable’ for retrofit
© IEA 2016
Relative (additional) retrofitting costs
© IEA 2016
Power generation efficiency:Reducing the cost of CO2 abatement
Raising efficiency significantly reduces the CO2/kWh emitted
Impact of efficiency improvement on CO2 abatement
© IEA 2016
Coal: to avoid carbon lock‐in, Improve efficiency, then deploy CCS
To meet the 2DS, generation from subcritical plants need to cease before their technical lifetimes end.
© IEA 2016
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality
© OECD/IEA 2015
Projected Levelised Cost of Electricity of coal power generation in the USA
Assumptions on Capture Cost and Performance in the 2DS
Projected Levelised Cost of Electricity of coal power generation in Japan
Early stage support is key to improve future technology competitiveness
© IEA 2016
Collaboration: the New Modus Operandi to meet sustainability goals
• COP 21 invited Non‐State Actors to actively contribute to the climate solutionIncreased participation from Business, NGOs and Local Governments“Paris Pledge for Action” support to ensuring that the level of ambition set by the Paris Agreement is met or exceeded
• International co‐operation can drive innovationActing together, governments and industry can make decarbonisation easier and even more affordableClean Energy Ministerial, Mission: Innovation, Breakthrough Energy Coalition
© IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2015
This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area. Experts from countries shown above participate in activities of the Technology Collaboration Programmes.
IEA Energy Technology Network:Technology Collaboration Programmes
© IEA 2016
Clean Coal related TCPs
IEA Clean Coal Centre (IEA CCC) IEA CCC provides information on the clean and efficient use of coal
worldwide through in‐depth topical reports, literature reviews and online databases, as well as through conferences and workshops.
IEA Fluidized Bed Conversion (IEA FBC) IEA FBC provides a forum for experts in the field of fluidized bed
conversion. The main activity of the TCP is technical exchanges on current FBC research during meetings and workshops.
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG) IEAGHG studies and evaluates technologies that can reduce
greenhouse gas emissions derived from the use of fossil fuels. A focus of the work of the IEAGHG has been on carbon capture and storage.
© IEA 2016
Conclusions
• While coal has been a strong support for expanded electricity use, it also leads to over 50% of the CO2 emissions
• 2015 has seen an exceptional growth of investment in renewables, helped partly by declining generation costs
• The Paris Agreement requires decarbonisation of the energy sector at a much faster rate than currently observed
• Electricity generation will be completely transformed by 2050
• To avoid carbon lock‐in, improve efficiency, then deploy CCS
• China coal retrofit study
• Collaboration is the new Modus Operandi to meet the sustainability goals
© IEA 2016
Thank you for your attention