CLAVIER: region of interest-Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania
-
Upload
carrington -
Category
Documents
-
view
31 -
download
0
description
Transcript of CLAVIER: region of interest-Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania
CLAVIER: region of interest-Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania
Climate ChAnge and Variability:Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope
Coordination: Daniela Jacob, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Germany
CLAVIER participants
RomaniaIGThe Institute of Geography of the Romanian Academy
13
RomaniaUBBUniversity of Cluj12
RomaniaINHGANational Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest
11
BulgariaUNWEUniversity of National and World Economy, Sofia10
BulgariaNIMHNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia
9
HungaryEiCEnv-In-Cent Consulting Ltd., Budapest8
HungaryBMEBudapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Budapest
7
HungaryVITUKIVITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Institute, Budapest
6
AustriaJRJoanneum Research Graz5
FranceCNRSInstitut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris4
AustriaWegCenterUniversity of Graz/Wegener Centre3
HungaryOMSZHungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest2
GermanyMPI-MMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, 1
CLAVIER goals
• Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and their associated uncertainties in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) until 2050
• Analyses of possible impact of climate changes in CEEC on weather pattern and extremes, air pollution, human health, natural ecosystems, forestry, agriculture and infrastructure as well as water resources
• Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate changes on CEEC economies, concentrating on four economic sectors, which are agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector
CLAVIER Workpackages
Observed changes
in means and extremes
2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000
Annual
Annual: negative anomaly for the large part of Europe for the first two decades, then increasing positive anomaly
2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean
Winter: the most significant changes, the highest for Iceland and Northern Europe
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter
Winter
2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean
Summer: similar, but not so drastic tendency
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer
Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer
Summer
Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000
Annual
Slight increase of the daily mean temperature for the last decade
Anomaly of daily mean temperature
Anomaly of daily mean temperature
Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000 for summer
Summer
The highest increase is in summer (up to 1.5°)
Daily maximum wind gustFrequency distribution of the daily maximum wind gust
Periods: 1971–1980 and 1991–2000. Location: Budapest
Budapest
Increase of the heavy and stormy wind gust
Possible future changes until 2050 using
IPCC scenario A1B and the modelling chain: (ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)
More calculations and analyses will be done within the project
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
ºC
Temperature changes (A1B), 2050
(ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
%
Precipitation changes (A1B), 2050
(ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)
CLAVIER Workpackages
CLAVIER Workpackages
CS2: Roads
CS1: Grassland (Hortobágy)
CS3: Buildings (roof)
CS4: Heat waves
CS5: Ragweed
Case studies
CLAVIER Workpackages
Selected case studies
for economic investigations on:
• public sector (natural catastrophes, risk transfer, national level)
• agriculture (BUL: Severoiztochen, RO: Nord Vest,)
• energy (BUL: Vratsa (Kozloduj), Pleven (Belene), HU: Gyor-Moson-Sopron, RO: Arges (Vidraru))
• tourism (BUL: Blagoevgrad (winter), HU: Vezprem (summer), RO: Prahova/Braşov (winter), Constanţa (summer))
WP4 – ECONOMY: Economic Vulnerability of CEE Societies and Economic Impact Assessment
The CLAVIER-Region
CLAVIER Hotspot areas : Romania
1. North-West Development Region; (NUTS 2); Agriculture
2. Arges Basin; Vidraru Reservoir; Hydroelectric Power Plant;
3. Prahova Valley & Poiana Brasov, Southern Carpathians; Tourism
4. Bend Subcarpathians; Natural hazards (erosion, landslides)
5. Black Sea Coast, Constanta County; Tourism
The meteorological station at the Vitosha mountain top „Cherni Vrah“
of the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Thank you!