Class project presentation Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529 Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability...
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Transcript of Class project presentation Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529 Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability...
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture
Estimates in the Colorado River Basin
ATMO 529
Class Project Presentation
Seshadri Rajagopal
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Motivation
• Soil moisture plays an important role in land- atmosphere interactions at a variety of time scales
• Similar to SST it is a slow changing variable. In other words there is a persistence in SM
• Distributed observations of soil moisture are rare to find
• Most of the analysis is performed on GCM based assimilated values or from Hydrologic models
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Background
• VIC is a hydrologic model that solves for full water and energy balance
• Takes basic atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed etc as inputs
• Apart from other output it generates, for current purpose I use the soil moisture values
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Tasks
• Perform correlation analysis• Perform SVD analysis on the soil moisture data to
identify dominant modes of variability• Perform REOF analysis to identify regionalized patterns
Testable Hypothesis • Layer 1 soil moisture will show variability similar to the
ENSO index, whereas in the deeper layers (2, 3) due to persistence will correlate better to the PDO signal
• The spatial patterns of will indicate a higher dominance of PDO in the upper basin, and higher dominance of ENSO in the lower basin
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 1SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 1SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 2SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 2SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 3SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 3SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM PC1 and Nino3
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Var Explained = 47%
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
PC1 time-series and Nino3
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 winter index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 spring index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 summer index
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 fall index
PC1
Nino3
R = 0.47
R = 0.31
R = 0.19
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM PC1 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PDO &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM REOF 1 & 2 and Nino3
Regression coefficients for the REOF1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the REOF2 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 3 SM PC1 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-2
0
2
4
6
8
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Var Explained = 33%
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
PC1 time-series and PDO
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO winter index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO spring index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO summer index
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO fall index
PC1
PDO
R = 0.52
R = 0.57
R = 0.52
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 3 REOF 1 & 2 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the REOF1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the REOF2 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Summary
• Nino3 is more influential on layer 1 soil moisture– This make intuitive sense as the top layer soil
moisture will follow an annual cycle (similar to the precipitation cycle)
• Layer 3 soil moisture follows similar cycles as the PDO– This indicates that there is more hydrologic memory in
the deep layer soil moisture.