Class d Reserves Presentation

7/29/2019 Class d Reserves Presentation

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WORLD OIL/GAS

RESERVES:FUTURE SUPPLY &

PROSPECTS

NOV 2012 FSTPCLASS D


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PRESENTATION ELEMENTS

BACKGROUND: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND

BASIC CONCEPTS

GLOBAL STATISTICS: OIL & NATURAL GAS RESERVES

REGIONAL R/P RATIO

FUTURE DEMAND/SUPPLY OIL & NATURAL GAS

GLOBAL RESERVE GROWTH RATE & DEPLETION

GLOBAL CHALLENGES

STRATEGIES FOR ENHANCING RESERVES

DRIVING IT HOME: THE NIGERIAN SCENARIO

CONCLUSION


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:DEMAND

THE WORLD WILL CONTINUE TO NEED ENERGY


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:DEMAND

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND ISINCREASING.....

SOURCE: BP STATISTICAL

REVIEW 2012


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BASIC CONCEPTS

Hydrocarbon Initially in Place (HIIP) - This is the amount of hydrocarbon which

can either be crude oil or natural gas estimated to be in a reservoir.

Recovery Factor (RF) - This refers to the ratio of the recoverable oil reserves to

the oil initially in place in a reservoir.

Reserves - Reserves are those quantities of Hydrocarbon (oil/gas) which are

estimated to be recovered from known accumulations using current technology

and under existing economic condition.

Proved Reserves

Unproved Reserves

Probable ReservesPossible Reserves


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BASIC CONCEPTS

Conventional Hydrocarbon Resources: This usually means sand, shaly sand or

carbonate reservoir formations with intergranular pore systems, intermediate

to high porosity, intermediate to high permeability that contain gas or

intermediate to light oil.

Unconventional Hydrocarbons: The objective is to produce hydrocarbons that

are very difficult to extract, either because they are located in beds of very low

permeability, or because their very nature makes them difficult or impossible

to move.

Type Of Estimate Deterministic Terminology Probabilistic

Terminology

Statistical

DescriptionLow Proved (1P) P90 10TH percentile

Best Proved and Probable (2P) 950 Medium

High Proved, probable and

possible (3P)

P10 90th percentile


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ACCUMULATION


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:NATURAL GAS RESERVES

OIL

GAS

1652.7

MMBBL

7360.9

MMMSCF


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GAS RESERVES

0 10 20 30 40 50

Russia

Iran

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United States

Turkmenistan

United Arab

Nigeria

Venezuala

Algeria

44.8

29.61

25.37

7.807

7.716

7.504

6.453

5.292

5.065

4.502

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Venezuala

Saudi Arabia

Canada

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

UAE

Russia

Libya

Kazakstan

Nigeria

Qatar

US

296.5

265.4

175.2

154.58

115.35

111.5

97.8

77.4

48

39.8

37.2

25.38

20.682

PROVED OIL RESERVES BY COUNTRIES(Billion Barrels)

PROVED OIL

RESERVESTOP 10

COUNTRIES

PROVED

NATURAL GAS

RESERVES

TOP 10COUNTRIES

Trillion cubic meters


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REGIONAL R/P RATIO

41.7

102

22.3

78.7

41.2

14

Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratio (Years)

North America

South & Central America

Europe & Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

12.545.2

75.9

165

71.7

35

Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratio (Years)

North America

South & Central America

Europe & Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

R/P RATIO

FOR OIL

R/P RATIO

FOR GAS


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FUTURE DEMAND/SUPPLY OILPROJECTION OF OIL DEMAND BYREGION (Million BPD)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

North

America

23.9 24.1 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.3

Western

Europe

14.5 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.9

OECD Pacific 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.7

OECD 46.1 46.0 45.2 44.2 43.1 41.9

Latin America 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.8

Middle-East

& Africa

3.4 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.1

South Asia 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 8.0 9.2

Southeast

Asia

6.2 6.8 7.6 8.4 9.1 9.9

China 8.9 11.6 13.8 15.6 17.1 18.4

OPEC 8.1 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.5

Developing

Countries

35.9 41.8 47.2 52.2 57.0 61.9

Russia 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4

Other

Transition

economies

1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5

Transition

economies

4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9

World 86.6 92.9 97.8 102.0 105.8 109.7


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FUTURE DEMAND/SUPPLY OILPROJECTION OF OIL SUPPLY BYREGION (Million BPD)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US & Canada 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0

Mexico 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6

Western Europe 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9

OECD Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

OECD 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3

Latin America 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7

Middle-East &

Africa

4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Asia 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0

China 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3

DCs, excl. OPEC 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4

Russia 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3

Other Transition

economies

1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5

Transition

economies

4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9

Processing Gains 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4

OPEC NGLS 4.8 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.4

OPEC GTLs 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6

OPEC Crude 29.3 31.3 33.2 35.4 37.4 39.3

World 86.4 93.1 98 102.2 106 109.7


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GAS

PROJECTION OF NATURAL GASDEMAND BY REGION

PROJECTION OF NATURAL GASSUPPLY BY REGION

SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL

ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012


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DEPLETION

WHEN WILL WORLDWIDE CONVENTIONAL OIL

PRODUCTION PEAK?

SOURCE: UK ENERGY

RESEARCH CENTRE


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DEPLETION

SOURCE: US ENERGY

INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION


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GLOBAL CHALLENGES

WORLD ECONOMICS

Current crude price and projected future productionRising Oil Prices will stimulate Exploration and

Development

Cost of exploration and development

GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

Global Issues (Political Stability, Climate Change)

Security Challenges

World Politics(Local/International)

OPEC and Non-OPEC production regulations

TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION

Technological developments

Skilled Manpower


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RESERVES

TECHNOLOGY

Development & Innovation in 3D/4D Seismic

(Acquisition, Processing & Interpretation)

Advances in Directional Drilling Technology;

Horizontal Drilling Technology, Multiple Reservoir

Contact (MRC) Technology.

Offshore Technology Development projects

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques


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RESERVES

UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVES

Heavy and Extra-heavy Oil , Tar Sands, Tight Oil,

Shale Oil Tight Gas, Shale Gas , Coal bed Methane (CBM)

Arctic Region

Deep and Ultra Deep Water

CAPACITY BUILDING

Extensive Research


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SCENARIO

RESERVES ADDITION??

FROM WHERE??

PROSPECTIVE BASINS

Anambra Basin

Benue Basin

Bida Basin

Chad Basin Sokoto Basin

Niger Delta Basin

Ultra Deep Basin of the

Niger Delta

ENORMOUS RESERVES POTENTIAL EXIST BUT KEY

ISSUES NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED (PIB, POLITICAL

INSTABILTY,SECURITY CHALLENGES)

CONCLUSION


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CONCLUSION

World Energy Demand is increasing due to major

drivers such as population growth, economic growth

and rapid industrialization

Crude Oil and natural gas will remain a major source

of energy for world consumption as projected by

world energy analysts

Projected Crude supply will come from conventional

and unconventional sources. Unconventional sources

will contribute substantially to the crude oil and

natural gas supply requirement.

Countries like the US (Oil Shale) and Canada (tar

sands) have developed core technologies of

exploiting these resources and have increased their

CONCLUSION


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CONCLUSION

Uncertainties exist over when the world

conventional oil peak will occur.

Critical issues such as world economics (crude price

and cost of exploration and development), global

geopolitics and human resources requirement will

substantially affect projected demand and supply in

the future

Large reserves and key regions in the world still

remain unexplored, this include the deep and ultradeep offshore locations and Arctic region. Advances

in Technology will enhance reserves addition from

these locations.

Technolo will la a vital role in future discover of


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