Sacred & SecularReligion and Politics Worldwide

Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

StructureI. Theories of secularization

Religiosity & existential security

II. Research designIII. EvidenceIV. Conclusions

Advanced industrial societies have become steadily more secular during the last 50 years

Yet the world as a whole has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before

Book Contents List of Tables and Figures Preface and Acknowledgments PART I: UNDERSTANDING SECULARIZATION

1. The Debate About Secularization and Religion 2. Measuring Secularization 3. Comparing Secularization Worldwide

PART II: CASE STUDIES OF RELIGION AND POLITICS

4. The Puzzle of Religiosity in the United States and

Western Europe

5. Religion and Politics in the Muslim World 6. A Religious Revival in Post-Communist Europe?

PART III: THE CONSEQUENCES OF SECULARIZATION

7. Religion, the Protestant Ethic, and Moral Values 8. Religious Organizations and Social Capital 9. Religious Parties and Electoral Behavior

CONCLUSIONS 10. Secularization and its Consequences

Select Bibliography

I:Theories of secularization Max Weber – Enlightenment Rationality

The loss of faith

Emile Durkheim - Functionalism The loss of purpose due to functional differentiation

Stark and Finke - Religious market theory “After nearly three centuries of utterly failed prophesies and misrepresentations

of both present and past, it seems time to carry the secularization doctrine to the graveyard of failed theories, and there to whisper ‘requiescat in pace’” Stark and Finke. 2000. Acts of Faith.

Public ‘demand’ for religion is constant Supply-side competition among clergy energizes religiosity Established churches dampen competition Religious participation explained by religious pluralism and freedom of religion

Theory of secularization & security

A#1Societies differ in

levels of basic human

security

A#2Societies

differ in theirpredominant

religious culture

Religious values

EgImportance of religion

Importance of God ReligiousParticipation

EgAttend religious servicesDaily prayer or meditation

Religious Political Activism

Eg Member religious groups

Support religious partyReligious beliefs

EgWithin each religion

Moral attitudes

Demographic trends

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

II. Research design?

World Values Survey 1981-2001

Included in the WVS

Included (76)Not yet included (112)

Classification of societiesCatholic

(28)Protestant

(20)Orthodox

(12)Muslim

(13)Eastern

(6)

Postindustrial

Eg Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Italy

Eg Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, US

Industrial Eg Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Poland

Eg Estonia, Latvia

Eg Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania

Eg Turkey, Eg South Korea, Taiwan

Agrarian Eg Dominican Rep, El Salvador, Peru

Eg South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda

Eg Armenia, Moldova

Eg Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria

Eg China, India, Viet Nam

Sources: Type of predominant religion: CIA World Factbook; Type of society: HDI UNDP

Core MeasuresINDIVIDUAL RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATIONApart from weddings, funerals and christenings, how often do you attend religious services?How often do you pray to God outside of religious services?RELIGIOUS VALUESHow important is God in your life? How important is religion in your life? RELIGIOUS BELIEFSDo you believe in heaven? Do you believe in hell?Do you believe in life after death?Do you believe people have a soul?

Measures of religious participation

Frequency of prayer

7654321

Freq

uenc

y of

relig

ious

par

ticip

atio

n 7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Other

Eastern

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.7904

Zim

Yug

Viet

Ven

US

GB

Ukr

Uga

Sp

SAfr

Slovk

Rus

Por

Pol

Phil

Neth

Mex

Lux

LithJor

Jap

Ita

Ire

Iran

IceHung

Greece

Ger

Fr

FinEst

Egy

DenCzech

CroChilCan

BulBela

Bng

AusArg

Evidence Cross-national

Comparisons by type of society Time-series

Trends in survey data (WVS, Gallup, EB) Generational comparisons

By birth cohort Sectoral comparisons

Individual-level within societies

III: Evidence

2333344455556

778891010111111

1313141415

17171818

202020202122

2425

2627272828

303131

3537373738

4243444444

464647

4950

5358

6060

6565

7377

7983

8990

0 20 40 60 80 100

ChinaRussia Iceland

DenmarkJapan

EstoniaViet Nam

FinlandSwedenNorwayBelarus

LatviaAzerbaijan

BulgariaArmenia

YugoslaviaCzech Rep

FranceGeorgiaUkraine

Moldova Macedonia

TaiwanHungaryUruguayGreeceBritain

LithuaniaNew Zealand

GermanyAlbania

Korea, Rep Australia

LuxembourgSwitzerland

NetherlandsSloveniaRomania

AustriaBelgiumCroatia

ArgentinaIran

CanadaChile

SpainVenezuela

Bosnia &Brazil

TurkeySlovakia

ItalyPortugal

EgyptPeru

JordanUnited States

DominicanColombiaMorocco

AlgeriaIndia

MexicoSouth AfricaEl Salvador

PolandBangladesh

IndonesiaPhilippinesZimbabwe

IrelandUganda

MaltaNigeria

Tanzania

Note: Religious participation: Q185 “Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, about how often do you attend religious services these days? More than once a week, once a week, once a month, only on special hold days, once a year, less often, never or practically never.” The proportion who attended ‘Once a week or more.’Source: World Values Survey (pooled surveys, 1981-2001)

Religiosity by type of society

44

52

64

25

34 34

20

26

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Attend religious service atleast weekly (%)

Pray daily (%) Religion ‘very important’(%)

Agrarian Industrial Postindustrial

Religiosity & Development Religious

participation Frequency of prayer

Nations

SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT R Sig R Sig N. Human Development Index 1998 (UNDP 2001) -.521 *** -.506 *** 73 GINI coefficient for income inequality, latest year (WDI 2002)

.426 ** .530 ** 59

Logged per capita GDP (in $US PPP), 2000 (WDI 2002) -.469 *** -.512 *** 67 % Urban population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.451 ** -.490 ** 65 % Rural population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) .452 ** .493 ** 65 Agricultural production (as % of GDP), 1997 (UNDP 2001)

.270 * 57

EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATIONS % Adult illiteracy rate, 1998 (UNDP 2000) .406 ** .522 ** 73 Education (Gross enrollment ratio) 1998 -.487 *** -.435 *** 73 Access to mass communications -.533 *** -.468 *** 59 HEALTH CARE AIDS cases (per 100,000 people), 1997 . 403 *** .375 *** 67 Infant mortality rate, under 12 months per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)

.600 *** 562 *** 62

Child mortality rate, under-5 years, per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)

.604 *** .608 *** 64

Access to an improved water source (% pop) (WDI 2002)

-.481 ** -.507 * 43

Immunization (against measles, % of children under 12 months) (WDI 2002)

-.583 ** -.455 ** 64

Doctors (per 100,000 people), 1993 (UNDP 2001) -.582 *** .708 *** 66 DEMOGRAPHICS Population growth (annual %) (WDI 2002) .548 *** .742 *** 65 Life expectancy at birth, total years, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.535 *** -.454 *** 64 Population ages 0-14 (% of total) (WDI 2002) .607 *** .722 *** 64 Population ages 65 and above (% of total) (WDI 2002) -.557 *** -.743 *** 64

Trends in belief in God 1947-2001Ref Gallup polls & WVS

Nation 1947 1968 1975 1981 1990 1995 2001 Change b. Sig. (P)

Sweden 80 60 52 38 48 46 -33.6

-.675 .009

Netherlands 80 79 64 61 58 -22.0

-.463 .020

Australia 95 80 79 75 75 -19.9

-.379 .007

Norway 84 73 68 58 65 -18.9

-.473 .018

Denmark 80 53 59 62 -17.9

-.387 .023

Britain 77 76 73 72 61 -16.5

-.461 .021

Greece 96 84 -12.3

-.364 -

West Germany 81 72 68 63 71 69 -12.0

-.305 .169

Belgium 78 76 65 67 -11.2

-.487 .145

Finland 83 83 61 73 72 -10.8

-.296 .167

France 66 73 72 59 57 56 -10.1

-.263 .162

Canada 95 89 91 85 88 -7.2

-.387 .075

Switzerland 84 77 77 -7.2

-.277 .111

India 98 93 94 -4.0

-.231 .275

Japan 38 39 37 44 35 -3.0

-.016 .935

Austria 85 78 83 -1.9

-.097 .700

Italy 88 82 82 88 -0.1

.039 .873

United States 94 98 94 96 93 94 94 0.4 -.027 .533

Brazil 96 98 99 3.0

.056 .152

ALL 10 1947-2001 85 72 -13.5

-.315 .003

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Belgium Den France GB

Germany Greece Ire Italy

Lux Neth NI Portugal

Spain

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

1970 1980 1990

year

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Trends in European church attendance, 1970-2000Source: Eurobarometer annual surveys

Religious participation in the United States, 1972-2004

Note: Q: “How often do you attend religious services?” Never/ At least once a week or more often. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N.43,204

Never

Once a week+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1980

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Never Weekly or moreLinear (Weekly or more) Linear (Never)

Never

At least weekly

US denominational identities

Note: “What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, some other religion, or no religion?” The graph excludes religious identities adhered to by less than 3% of Americans. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N. 43,532

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PROTESTANT CATHOLIC NONE

Protestant

None

Catholic

Strength of US religious identities, 1972-2004

Note: Q: “Would you call yourself a strong/not very strong [religious affiliation]?” No religion/ Strong affiliation. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N.43,204

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

1 STRONG 4 NO RELIGION

Strong affiliation

None

Religious participation by cohort

Cohort of birth

1977-19841967-19761957-19661947-19561937-19461927-19361917-1926

Mea

n fr

eque

ncy

of a

ttend

ing

relig

ious

ser

vice

s

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Type of Society

Postindustrial

Industrial

Agrarian

Postindustrial

Industrial

Agrarian

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Lowes

t 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Highes

t

Pray daily Religion 'very' important

Religiosity & household income, postindustrial societiesSource: WVS 1981-2001

Supply-side theory?

Indicators of supply-side Religious pluralism: the Herfindahl Index

(Alesina 2002) The state regulation of religion: Scale measured

by Mark Chaves and David E. Cann (1992). Freedom House religious freedom scale, 2001.

www.freedomhouse.org Religious Freedom Index

Religious freedom index: Classification: US State Dept International Religious Freedom, 2002.

1. The constitution limits freedom of religion.

2. The constitution does not recognize freedom of religion. (Or the law does not recognize

freedom of religion, in countries without a written constitution).

3. A single official (established) state church exists.

4. The state favors one religion.

5. Religious organizations must register with the state or be designated by it to operate

legally, or the government imposes restrictions on those organizations not registered or

recognized.

6. The state issues legal permits for religious buildings.

7. The state appoints or approves church leaders, church leaders appoint or approve

government officials, and/or church leaders have specific positions in the government.

8. The state pays church salaries directly.

9. The state subsidies some/all churches.

10. The state provides tax exemptions for some/all churches.

11. The state bans clergy from all or some specified religions from holding public office.

12. The state owns some church property and buildings.

13. The state mandates some religious education in state schools, even though students can

be exempted from this requirement with a parent’s request.

14. There are reports of forced religious conversions.

15. The state restricts some denominations, cults, or sects.

16. The state restricts/bans some missionaries entering the country for proselytizing

purposes.

17. The state restricts/censors some religious literature entering the country or being

distributed.

18. The state imprisons or detains some religious groups or individuals.

19. The state fails to deter serious incidents of ethno-religious conflict and violence directed

against some minority groups. 20. The state is designated a country of particular concern for freedom of religion by the

United States state department.

Indicators in postindustrial societies

Indicators Religious participation

How often pray? N. of nation

R Sig. R Sig.

RELIGIOUS MARKETS Religious pluralism .018 N/s .119 N/s 21

Religious Freedom index .367 N/s .477 N/s 21

State regulation of religion .427 N/s .423 N/s 18

Freedom House religious freedom scale -.314 N/s -.550 N/s 13

HUMAN SECURITY Human Development Index -.249 N/s .077 N/s 21

Economic inequality (GINI coefficient) .496 * .614 * 18

Note: Pearson simple correlations (R) without prior controls and their significance. * 0.05 level **

0.01 level (2-tailed).

Indicators inpost-communist societies

Human Development Index 1998

.9.8.7.6

Impo

rtanc

e of

God

sca

le

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.4264

Ukr

SlovSlovk

Rus

Rom

Pol

Mol

Mac

LithLat

Hung

Geo

Est Czech

Cro

Bul

Bela

Aze

Arm

Alb

Low -- Religious pluralism -- high

.7.6.5.4.3.2.1

Impo

rtanc

e of

God

sca

le

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

Religious culture

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.0133

Ukr

SlovSlovk

Rus

Rom

Pol

Mol

Mac

Lith

Lat

Hung

Geo

EstCzech

Cro

Bul

Bos

Bela

Aze

Arm

Alb

Human development index

Religious pluralism

Low -- Religious Freedom Index -- High

1009080706050

Impo

rtanc

e of

God

sca

le

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.1261

Yug Ukr

SlovSlovk

Rus

Rom

Pol

Mol

Mac

LithLat

Hung

Geo

EstCzech

Cro

Bul

Bos

Bela

Aze

Arm

Alb

Failure of religious markets theory

Yet religious population expands

Annual population growth rate (%), 1975-1997

543210-1

Impo

rtanc

e of

relig

ion

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Type of Society

Agrarian

Industrial

Postindustrial

Rsq = 0.5882

Zim

Viet

Ven

Uru

US

Uga

Slovk

Rus

PolPeru

NZ

Mol

Malta

SKor

Jor

Jap

ItaIre

Iran

Indonesi

India

Ice

Ger

Geo

Fr

ElSal

Egy

Den

Czech

Cro

China

Chil

Can

Bul

Braz

Belg

Bng

Aze

AusAustl

Arm

Alg

Alb

Religion & demographic trends

(Source: World Bank 2003)

Fertility rates by type of society

Type of society 

Nations

Annual population growth rate (%), 1975-1997

Annual population growth rate (%), 1997-2015

Most secular 25 0.7 0.2

Moderate 24 0.7 0.3

Most religious 24 2.2 1.5

Total 73 1.2 0.7Type of society: Based on mean macro-level religious values measured on the 10-point to ‘importance of God’ scale, WVS 1981-2001.

Nations: Number of societiesSource: World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators. Washington DC: World Bank: www.worldbank.org

IV: Conclusions

Conclusions1. Virtually all advanced industrial societies are

moving towards more secular orientations.2. Yet the world as a whole now has more people

with traditional religious beliefs than ever before

3. The religion gap becomes increasingly salient on the global agenda, yet the consequences for international conflict remain unclear.

Further details/chapters: www.pippanorris.com

Details: www.pippanorris.com

Values & participation

Importance if religion

4.03.53.02.52.01.5

Atte

nd r

elig

ious

ser

vice

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Major religion

Other

Buddhist

Hindu

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.7299

Zim

Viet

Ven

Uru

US

Ukr

Uga

Turk

Tai

SwiSp

SAfr

Slovk

Rus

RomPor

PolPhil

Nigeria

NZ

Mex

Lat

SKor

Jor

Jap

Ita

Ire

Iran

India

Ice

Greece

Ger

Fr

Fin

Est

ElSal

Egy

DenCzech

Cro

China

ChilCan

GB

Braz

BelgAze

Aus

Arm

ArgAlb

Values & participation

Model A Model B Model C

Development Development +Religious Orientation

Development + Religious Orientation + Religious

culture

b (s.e.) Beta Sig. B (s.e.) Beta Sig. B (s.e.) Beta Sig.

SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT

Level of human development (HDI 1998) 2.575 1.18 .279 .034 .244 1.16 .026 N/s .695 1.16 .075 N/s

Levels of economic inequality (Gini coeff.) -.037 .017 -.275 .036 -.002 .014 -.018 .035 -.029 .014 -.219 .038

RELIGIOUS ORIENTATION

Religious values (4-point scale) .912 .342 .462 .010 1.58 .354 .803 .000

Religious beliefs (4-point scale) .454 .171 .366 .010 .422 .148 .340 .006

TYPE OF RELIGIOUS CULTURE

Catholic societies -.148 .408 -.058 N/s

Protestant societies -.375 .461 -.101 N/s

Orthodox societies -.374 .444 -.100 N/s

Muslim societies 1.97 .534 .556 .001

Constant 4.29 .013 .292

Adjusted R2 .184 .520 .646

Models of religious participation