Clarkson Class lecture 070903
24
Lena Hansen Rocky Mountain Institute Biofuels: Considerations and Potential Clarkson University 5 September 2007
Transcript of Clarkson Class lecture 070903
Len a Han se nRocky Mou ntain Inst itu te
Biofuels:Considerations and Potential
Clarkson Univ ersi ty5 Sep tember 2007
Abundance by DesignTM
Understanding the Goal
• President Bush’s goal– Produce 35 billion
gallons of alternativefuel by 2017
• Several possibleunderlying motivators:– Increase energy
security– Decrease fuel price
volatility– Increase sustainability
Abundance by DesignTM
Where does a car’s gasoline go?
• 6% accelerates the car, <1% moves the driver
• Three-fourths of the fuel use is weight-related
• Each unit of energy saved at the wheels saves ~7-8 units ofgasoline in the tank (or ~3-4 with a hybrid)
• So first make the car much lighter! (safer, ~free)
Rolling Resistance
Braking Resistance
Aerodynamic drag
Accessory lossEngine Loss
Idling Loss
Drivetrain Loss
87% of the fuel energy is wasted13% tractive load
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Abundance by DesignTM
The future of high efficiency vehicles
•Heavy trucks use 12% of all US oil
•Could save 65% of that for the equivalentof $0.25/gallon of diesel
•Move from 6.2 mpg to 11.8 mpg
•Airplanes can become 2-3x more efficient
•Could save 45% of 2025 demand for theequivalent of $0.45/gallon of jet fuel
•Personal cars are largest users of US oil
•Could save 69% of that for the equivalentof $0.46/gallon of gasoline
•Move from ~20 mpg to 66 mpg
Abundance by DesignTM
After efficiency…alternative supply
Conventional Wisdom
Conventional Wisdom
State of the Art
State of the Art
Net Imports
Total Petroleum Use
mill
ion
barr
els/
day
1950 1975 2000 2025
30
20
10
U.S. petroleum product consumption and net petroleum imports What are the choices?
Hydrogen
Compressed natural gas
Synthetic fuel
Electricity
Biofuels
What are the choices?
Hydrogen
Compressed natural gas
Synthetic fuel
Electricity
Biofuels
Abundance by DesignTM
How do we use transportation oil?
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Abundance by DesignTM
Different types of biofuels for different needs
Need:
Alternative:
Chemicalstructure:
Feedstocks:
US production:
Substitute for Diesel
Biodiesel
Oil
Waste veggieoil, soy beans,jatropha, palm
Substitute for Gasoline
Ethanol
Alcohol
Corn, sugar,cellulose
Abundance by DesignTM
Current production reflects demand
Detail on: Ethanol
Abundance by DesignTM
Types of Ethanol:not all ethanol is created equal
Can be grown onmarginal lands,
potentially high yields
Energy-intensive,competes with food
Key Characteristics
Pilot projectsCommercial scaleStatus
Enzymatic hydrolysis,thermochemicalFermentation
Conversion process
Switchgrass, poplarSugarcane, cornFeedstockexamples
CelluloseSugar/starchFeedstocks
State ofthe Art
Conventional
Abundance by DesignTM
Market reality: biofuels must be cost-competitive
Current tax exemption ends
Abundance by DesignTM
Key drivers of costState of the ArtConventional WisdomCost Element
DOE grants
$2.50/gal (current)
~100-120 gal/ton(target)
5 (current)-10 (target)tons/acre
Site specific
?
Cellulose
State incentives, renewable fuel standards, fuelingstation incentives, etc
Many others
n/aResearch &Development
$0.51/galProduction Tax Credit
Incentives
$1.40/galTotal Production Cost
~100-110 gal/tonProcess efficiency
Conversion
~7 tons grain/acreYield
Site specificTransportation
ExpensiveCrop Cost
CornFeedstock
Detail on: Biodiesel
Abundance by DesignTM
Types of Biodiesel
Dedicated CropsDedicated CropsWaste OilType
International
Not established in U.S.
Commercialized
Transesterification,gasification
Jatropha, palm oil,cellulose
State of the Art
DomesticDomesticLocation
High cost feedstock,competes with food
Low cost, reducesinput to landfills
KeyCharacteristics
CommercializedCommercializedStatus
TransesterificationTransesterificationConversion
process
Soy bean oilUsed cooking oilFeedstockexamples
Conventional
Abundance by DesignTM
Market reality: biofuels must be cost-competitive
EPACT subsidy ends
CCC subsidy ends
CCC subsidy starts
EPACT subsidy starts
Abundance by DesignTM
Key drivers of cost
•Conversion process is well understood andreasonably inexpensive
•Cost is in the feedstock
•Oil crops generally have low yields
•Exceptions are tree crops like palm and jatropha
•Costs of these crops is unclear…very few fieldtests in the U.S.
Non-economic factors
Abundance by DesignTM
Benefits of Biofuels
?
?
~80%
SOA
~70%
CWWasteSOACW
?
~80%?
Biodiesel
Energy Security
New Revenues
Jobs
Agricultural Revitalization
~85%~25%GHG reduction
Ethanol
Abundance by DesignTM
Pitfalls of Biofuels
Competition with food crops
?
?
SOA
CWWasteSOACW
Biodiesel
Labor Exploitation
?Damage to Ecosystem Services &
Preservation
Water use
Ag Impacts (toxics, soil erosion,
water pollution)
Ethanol
Abundance by DesignTM
Key Barriers to Biofuels Adoption:the biofuels value chain
Agriculture End UseDistributionConversion
Abundance by DesignTM
Key Barriers to Biofuels Adoption:the biofuels value chain
Agriculture End UseDistributionConversion
Abundance by DesignTM
And wait, there’re more barriers
Agriculture End UseDistributionConversion
Abundance by DesignTM
Key questions to consider
• Is the goal energy security, fuel price hedge,agricultural revitalization, or climate change mitigation?
• How much biofuel do we really need?
• How do you distinguish between sustainable andunsustainable biofuels?
• How quickly will R&D efforts progress?
• What policy interventions are necessary and possible?
