Civitas Institute Poll Presentation October 2013.

Civitas Institute Poll Presentation

October 2013

600 Registered Voters: 25% Cell

Margin of Error =+/-4.00%

Field Dates: October 20-24, 2013

National Research

22%

12%

8%29%

28%

Registration - Self-ID

Strong GOP GOPDemocrat Strong DemocratIndependent

Party Registration

34%

43%

23%

Registration as Polled

Republican Democrat Independent

#CivitasPoll

Party RegistrationCarolinaTransparency.com

#CivitasPoll

Jan '1

1

Feb '1

1

Mar

'11

May

'11Ju

l '11

Sep '1

1

Oct '11

Jan '1

2

Feb '1

2

Mar

'12

May

'12

July

'12

Sep '1

2

Oct '12

Jan '1

3

Feb '1

3

Mar

'13

Apr '13

May

'13

Jun '1

3

Oct '13

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

20%

44%

31%

Liberal Conservative Moderate

If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political beliefs?

#CivitasPoll

Performance Data

1-4 5-7 8-100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2%

5%

92%

#CivitasPoll

On a scale of one to ten, how likely are you to vote in the 2014 election for national and state offices? 1 = Not at all likely 5 = 50/50 10 = Certain you will

Oct

'12

Oct

'1310%

20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

40%

19%

55%

75%

Right Direction Wrong Track

Do you feel things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?

#CivitasPoll

Jan

'11

Feb

'11

Mar

'11

May

'11

Jul '

11Se

p '1

1O

ct '1

1Ja

n '1

2Fe

b '1

2M

ay '1

2Ju

l '12

Sep

'12

Oct

'12

Jan

'13

Feb

'13

Mar

'13

Apr '

13M

ay '1

3Ju

n '1

3O

ct '1

320%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%

33%

57%

Right Direction Wrong Track

Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?

#CivitasPoll

Jan '12

Mar '12

May '12

Jul '12

Sep '12

Nov '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Apr '13

May '13

Oct '13

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

37%

0.38

Republican Democrat

And if the election for the North Carolina State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:

#CivitasPoll

Elect a Republican who will support Governor McCrory's

programs and policies.

Elect a Democrat who will be a check and balance to Governor

McCrory's policies and programs.

Don’t Know/Neither/Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

38%

41%

20%

#CivitasPoll

And if the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…

Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.

Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s

programs and policies.

Don’t Know/Neither/Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

48%

37%

15%

#CivitasPoll

In the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…

Feb '13 May '13 Oct '1330%

40%

50%48%

37%

Elect Republican Elect Democrat

In the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…

#CivitasPoll

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

28% 15% 8% 43% 5%

Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion

Favorability – President Barack Obama

#CivitasPoll

Jan '12

Feb '12

Mar '12

May '12

Jul '12

Sept '12

Nov '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

May '13

Jun '13

Oct '13

40%

50%

60%

43%

52%

Favorable Unfavorable

Now, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama.

#CivitasPoll

Jan '12

Feb '12

Mar '12

May '12

Jul '12

Sept '12

Nov '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

May '13

Oct '13

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

44%

53%

Approve Disapprove

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States.

#CivitasPoll

When I say the name "President Barack Obama," what one or two descriptive words come to mind?

#CivitasPoll

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

17% 26% 15% 29% 12%


Favorability – Governor Pat McCrory

#CivitasPoll

Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '13 Jun '13 Oct '130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

43%44%


Now, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Pat McCrory.

#CivitasPoll

Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '13 Oct '130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

46%44%

Approve Disapprove

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Pat McCrory is doing as Governor of North Carolina.

#CivitasPoll

When I say the name "Governor Pat McCrory," what one or two descriptive words come to mind?

#CivitasPoll#CivitasPoll

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

14% 26% 13% 22% 23%


Favorability – Senator Kay Hagan

#CivitasPoll

Mar '13 Jun '13 Oct '1320%

30%

40%

50%

40%

34%


Now, please tell if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Kay Hagan.

#CivitasPoll

Jan '13 Feb '13 Oct '1320%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

43%

37%

Approve Disapprove

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator.

#CivitasPoll

Re-elect New Person Undecided/Don't Know/More Info

Needed

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18%Definitely

35%Definitely

19%

12% Probably

15%Probably

#CivitasPoll

Has Kay Hagan performed her job as US Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person a chance?

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

9% 22% 14% 14% 30%


Favorability – Richard Burr

#CivitasPoll

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Richard Burr is doing as US Senator.

#CivitasPoll

7%

29%18%

16%Strong ApproveSomewhat ApproveSomewhat Dis-saproveStrong Disapprove

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

15% 17% 11% 39% 15%


Favorability – Tea Party

#CivitasPoll

Oct '11 Jul '13 Oct '1320%

30%

40%

50%

60%

32%

50%


Now, please tell if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party.

#CivitasPoll

#CivitasPoll

If the Republican primary for US Senate were being held today and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you vote between… (Rep & UNA voters Only)

Harris

Tillis

Grant

Brannon

Undecided

Not Voting

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

4% 5% 2% 3%

57%

19%

North Carolina Taxes

When I mention North Carolina state taxes what comes to mind?

#CivitasPoll#CivitasPoll

Raised sales taxLowered everyone's income tax

ratesCut taxes on the wealthy

Raised income taxes

Nothing

Eliminated tax deductions

Other/Don't Know

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

19%

19%

16%

16%

13%

7%

34%

#CivitasPoll

In North Carolina, what action did the General Assembly take when it came to taxes? (More than one response accepted)

Overall, have your taxes gone up, gone down or have they stayed the same over the last year?

Gone up Gone down Stayed the same

Don't Know0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

50%

4%

35%

11%

#CivitasPoll

National Issues

Support Oppose Don't Know/No Opinion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

26%Strongly

45%Strongly

10%

10% Somewhat

8%Somewhat

36%

54%

#CivitasPoll

Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as The Affordable Care Act? (Split Sample)

Access

Fair

Helps the Poor

Necessity

Affordable

Favorable

Pre-existing Conditions

Other/None/Don't Know

0% 10% 20% 30%

22%

16%

16%

16%

13%

13%

1%

12%

#CivitasPoll

And why do you support The Affordable Care Act?

Cost

Mandate

Won't Work

Unfavorable

Socialism

Unfair

Have Insurance


0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

28%

16%

13%

12%

7%

7%

6%

33%

#CivitasPoll

And why do you oppose The Affordable Care Act?

Support Oppose Don't Know/No Opinion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

27%Strongly

44%Strongly

11%

12% Somewhat

7%Somewhat

#CivitasPoll

Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as “Obamacare”?

39%

51%

Fair

Access

Affordable

Favorable

Necessity

Pre-existing Conditions

Helps the Poor


0% 10% 20% 30%

24%

21%

17%

14%

11%

10%

8%

9%

#CivitasPoll

And why do you support Obamacare?

Cost

Mandate

Socialism

Won't Work

Taxes

Complicated

Unfavorable


0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

27%

24%

14%

11%

9%

7%

6%

33%

#CivitasPoll

And why do you oppose Obamacare?

Don't Know/No Opinion

Oppose

Support

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Obamacare - 11%

Obamacare - 50%

ACA - 10%

ACA - 54%

ACA - 36%

Obamacare - 38%

Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as The Affordable Care Act/“Obamacare”?

#CivitasPoll

Yes

No

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total - 9%

90%

#CivitasPoll

With the newly enacted federal health care law, the federal government is running a health care exchange for individuals to purchase health insurance. Have you had any experience with the health care exchange?

I have signed up - 3%I was unsuccessful in accessing - 3%I accessed but have not signed up - 3%

Republican

President Obama and Democrats in Washington DC

Republican Members of Congress in Washington DC

Both Equally

Don't Know

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

31%

42%

24%

3%

#CivitasPoll

In your opinion, who would you say is mostly to blame for the Federal Government shutdown that happened earlier this month...

31%

69%

1%

YesNoDon't Know

#CivitasPoll

Did the recently concluded Federal Government shutdown impact you or someone in your family personally?

Republican

Furloughed

Loss of Pay

Saw and Impact

Services

Military Impact

Vacation

Financial Impact

Emotional Impact

Federal Employee

Other/None

0% 10% 20% 30%

23%

17%

15%

10%

10%

8%

7%

5%

4%17%

#CivitasPoll

And how were you impacted?

Questions?

Keep in touch with Civitas!

@nccivitas

facebook.com/CivitasInstituteyoutube.com/CivitasInstitute

72%

22%

3% 1%

WhiteBlackLatinoNative American

Ethnicity

#CivitasPoll

66+ 56-65 41-55 26-40 18-250%

10%

20%

30%

25%

20%

25%

17%

8%

Age

#CivitasPoll

48%52%MenWomen

Gender

#CivitasPoll

Don’t Know/Refused

Spouse

Unemployed

Work for Government

Self Employed

Work for Private Company

Retired

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

3%

4%

8%

9%

11%

32%

33%

Employment

#CivitasPoll

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

32%33%

Are Self Employed Work for a Private Company Work for GovernmentAre a Spouse Are Retired Are Unemployed

In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…

#CivitasPoll

Other/Don't Know/Refused

Disability or injury

No work available

My Age

Able to financially retire

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

12%

14%

3%

53%

18%

#CivitasPoll

And what would you say is the MAIN reason that you are retired?

Facebook

Twitter

Reddit

LinkedIn

Pinterest

Instagram

Tumblr

NoOther/Don't

Know

46%

13%

3%

12%

7%

10%

3%

50%

1%

Social Media Use

#CivitasPoll

Northeast

Southeast

Western

Piedmont Triad

Charlotte

Triangle

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

11%

15%

15%

18%

19%

22%

Geographic Area

#CivitasPoll

Civitas Institute Poll Presentation October 2013.

Documents

Transcript of Civitas Institute Poll Presentation October 2013.