Civil disobedience cits

14
Value of Non-Violent Action as a Political Strategy Ryan Prior

description

 

Transcript of Civil disobedience cits

Page 1: Civil disobedience cits

Value of Non-Violent Action as a Political Strategy

Ryan Prior

Page 2: Civil disobedience cits

Puzzle: Two Tipping Points

1930, India Salt

Satyagraha Government

non-interference

1935, Government of India Act

1960, South AfricaPass Law ProtestPolice kill 69 people

ANC commences terrorism, 1961

Why did non-violent action succeed in British India (1930) but fail in British South Africa (1960)?

Page 3: Civil disobedience cits

Success and FailureGandhi is Man of the Year (1930)

South Africans Are Massacred (1960)

Page 4: Civil disobedience cits

Research Question

Why did mass organized disobedience to an unjust law (or laws) fulfill political objectives in India (1930) but not fulfill similar objectives in South Africa (1960)?

Page 5: Civil disobedience cits

Definitions

Non-violent action: Organized events of civil disobedience, strikes, and boycotts undertaken to compel government policy change

Page 6: Civil disobedience cits

Efficacy

Success: Degree of socio-economic disruption: ▪ GDP▪ Participation▪ Number of Arrests

Stated goals are achieved:▪ Polity IV Democracy Trends (Post-1946)▪ Policy Changes and Legislative Victories

Sustainment of non-violent action toward bigger goals:▪ Future non-violent action▪ Violent actions (Global Terror Database—START, post-

1960)

Page 7: Civil disobedience cits

Literature Review

Gene Sharp, Gandhi as a Political Strategist

Classic work that posits Gandhi’s strategic genius was of greater relevance than his moral and philosophical beliefs

Peter Ackerman and Chris Kreugler, Strategic Non-Violent Conflict

Rates various non-violent movements on their fulfillment of 12 principles of success

Page 8: Civil disobedience cits

Literature Review

Steven Zunes, “The Role of Non-Violent Action in the Downfall of Apartheid” Non-violent success in 1980s

Revolutionary and Dissident Movements of the World

BackgroundLong Walk to Freedom, Nelson MandelaThe Story of My Experiments With Truth,

Mohandas Gandhi

Page 9: Civil disobedience cits

Hypothesis

If a civil disobedience campaign lacks precisely articulated methods and organizational discipline (“coherent strategic vision”), then it will fail.

Page 10: Civil disobedience cits

Units of Analysis (“Coherent Strategic Vision”)

Setting Functional Objectives Non-Violent Discipline

Number and size of riots Protesters:

Total Members of Organizing Organizations▪ % of national population participating

Total Number of Chapters Economic or Racial Barriers to Entry

Page 11: Civil disobedience cits

Confounding Variables

Racist Ideology/Authoritarianism of Regime South African Republic Referendum (1960) British Colony vs. British Commonwealth

Legal status ANC/PAC were banned in SA, 1960

Singular, charismatic leadership Ideology of pacifism (present/not present) Non-Violent Tradition (Number of Past Protests) International Opinion

Soviet Influence in ANC British dragging their feet on international sanctions

Page 12: Civil disobedience cits

Causal Mechanism(s)

Boycotts, civil disobedience, marches

Bargaining, negotiations Policy Change

Social Disruption

Page 13: Civil disobedience cits

Findings

Specific literature of non-violent protest as a strategy

Specified rubrics for analyzing the strength and quality of a non-violent campaign

Analysis of effects. Need more analysis of conditions leading to start of non-violent events.

Page 14: Civil disobedience cits

Conclusions and Implications

Testing Hypothesis—Could be wrong? Lessons of 1960 Failure Explain

Success of “Ungovernability” in the 1980s?

Implications for success of Arab Spring movements and for 21st century revolutions