City of Palo Alto (CA) Staff Report: Retiree Health Care Costs/Liabilities

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    City of Palo Alto (ID # 2432)City Council Staff Report

    Report Type: Action ItemsMeeting Date: 1/30/2012

    January 30, 2012 Page 1 of 2

    (ID # 2432)

    Summary T itle: Retiree Medical Discussion

    Title: Retiree Medical Actuarial Report Discussion

    From: City Manager

    Lead Department: Administrative Services

    Recommendation

    Staff recommends that Council:

    Review, discuss and provide feedback on the attached actuarial valuation results (see

    Attachment A).

    Council Review and Recommendations

    On November 28, 2011, Council approved staffs recommendation to review and accept the

    updated retiree medical actuarial study with valuation dates as of January 1 and June 30, 2011.

    The actuarial study results are required by the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB)

    Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post Employment

    Benefits other Than Pensions.

    Included in their approval, Council directed staff to schedule a Council meeting, prior to the

    midyear budget, with the actuarial consultant who prepared the retiree medical actuarial study,Bartel and Associates. The meeting is scheduled for January 30, 2012. Council requested the

    meeting in order to have an in-depth discussion on several of the assumptions included in the

    actuarial study and its conclusions. Among the assumptions up for discussion are the closed

    amortization period (versus open) and the assumed rate of return on investments going

    forward and the medical trend assumptions. A listing of all assumptions appears in Attachment

    A.

    Council asked for the investment rate of return in the California Employers Retiree Benefit

    Trust (CERBT) for the Citys trust investment since its inception in March 2008. The rate of

    return (money-weighted) for the Citys trust investment for the period March 17, 2008 throughJune 30, 2011 is 3.62 percent. The rate of return (time-weighted) for the CERBT, overall, for the

    period of June 1, 2007 (trust inception) through June 30, 2011 is 1.24 percent.

    Attached to this memo are the related staff reports from the Finance Committee discussion on

    October 18, 2011 and the Council discussion on November 28, 2011.

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    January 30, 2012 Page 2 of 2

    (ID # 2432)

    Attachments:

    Attachment A: Retiree Medical Report (ID 2345) (PDF)

    Attachment B: Excerpt from Finance Committee meeting of November 28, 2011 (PDF)

    Prepared By: David Ramberg, Assistant Director

    Department Head: Lalo Perez, Director

    City Manager Approval: ____________________________________

    James Keene, City Manager

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    City of Palo Alto (ID # 2345)City Council Staff Report

    Report Type: Consent Calendar Meeting Date: 11/28/2011

    November 28, 2011 Page 1 of 2

    (ID # 2345)

    Summary T itle: City Council to Approve Retiree Medical

    Title: Finance Committee Recommendation that the Council Approve and

    Accept the Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study

    From: City Manager

    Lead Department: Administrative Services

    Recommendation

    The Finance Committee recommends that the Council approve and accept the updated retireemedical actuarial study (Attachment A).

    Committee Review and Recommendations

    On October 18, 2011, the Finance Committee voted unanimously to accept staffs

    recommendation to review and accept the updated retiree medical actuarial study with

    valuation dates as of January 1 and June 30, 2011. The actuarial study results are required by

    the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and

    Financial Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions.

    The updated study results in an increase of $3.8 million (39%) in the Citys retiree medical

    liability between 2009 and 2011. The result is that the Citys cost for retiree medical goes from$9.8 million to $13.6 million annually. The reasons for the cost increase are based on changes

    to actuarial assumptions and demographic changes and other changes as discussed in detail in

    Attachment A.

    Staff will provide funding recommendations as part of the FY2012 mid-year budget process and

    as part of the FY2013 proposed budget. In addition, staff will include the revised costs in the

    long range financial forecast, which will be presented to the Finance Committee in early 2012.

    Attachments:

    Attachment A: Retiree Medical Study (PDF)

    Attachment B: Finance Committee minutes 10/18/2011 (PDF)

    Attachment C: Staff Presentation(PDF)

    Attachment D: At places memo (PDF)

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    November 28, 2011 Page 2 of 2

    (ID # 2345)

    Prepared By: David Ramberg, Assistant Director

    Department Head: Lalo Perez, Director

    City Manager Approval: James Keene, City Manager

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    City of Palo Alto (ID # 2180)Finance Committee Staff Report

    Report Type: Meeting Date: 10/18/2011

    October 18, 2011 Page 1 of 5

    (ID # 2180)

    Council Priority: City Finances

    Summary Title: Retiree Medical Study

    Title: Review and Acceptance of Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study -

    Valuation Date January 1, 2011 and Valuation Date June 30, 2011

    From: City Manager

    Lead Department: Administrative Services

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    This report provides the City Council with the actuarial study results required by the

    Government Accounting Standards Board's (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial

    Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions. The results of the

    study as compared to the 2009 study show a fairly dramatic increase in Citywide costs. See

    Attachment B, slide 31 for a summary of the study results.

    RECOMMENDATION

    Staff recommends that the Council review and approve the attached actuarial valuation results

    (see Attachment A).

    BACKGROUND

    Per GASB Statement No. 45, beginning in Fiscal Year 2008, like other governmental entities, the

    City of Palo Alto was required to recognize in its financial statements any unfunded, earned

    retiree medical costs including those for current active employees. GASB 45 also requires the

    City to complete an actuarial study on a biennial basis, to determine the retiree medical liability

    and how much the City should be setting aside each year to fund that liability, the annual

    required contribution (ARC).

    In Fiscal Year 2008, the City established an irrevocable trust with California Employers Retirees

    Benefit Trust (CERBT) for retiree medical benefits. In Fiscal Year 2008, the City transferred $33.8million to the trust. As of January 1, 2011, the trust was valued at $40.2 million, and as of June

    30, 2011, it was valued at $44.8 million. Of course, recent market volatility may have a

    downward effect on future figures, not included in this study.

    DISCUSSION

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    October 18, 2011 Page 2 of 5

    (ID # 2180)

    Bartel and Associates completed an actuarial valuation for the City on October 11, 2011 with

    two valuation dates: January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011. The reason for the two valuation

    dates goes back to a new regulation pertaining to members of the CERBT (trust). All the Citys

    past valuations have used a January 1 valuation date. However, beginning FY 2012, members of

    the CERBT are required by GASB 57 to switch to a common valuation date of June 30.

    Therefore for this study only, the City opted to utilize both the January 1 and June 30 valuationdates. The January 1, 2011 valuation determines the Actuarially Required Contribution (ARC)

    for FY 2012; the June 30, 2011 valuation determines the ARC for FY 2013 and FY 2014.

    January 1, 2011 Valuation Date

    The actuarial study using a valuation date of January 1, 2011 valued the City's unfunded retiree

    medical liability at $134.7 million, compared to the unfunded liability of $105.0 million on

    January 1, 2009 a 28% increase.

    The Annual Required Contribution (ARC) associated with the January 1, 2011 valuation is

    $13.6 million for Fiscal Year 2012. This is an increase of $3.8 million (39%) over the ARC of

    $9.8 million associated with the January 1, 2009 valuation . The dramatic increase in the Citys

    retiree medical liability between the 2009 and 2011 studies is attributable to several

    differences in assumptions used by the respective actuarial firms (Milliman and Associates

    performed the 2009 study, and Bartel and Associates performed the current study). Those

    differences are as follows (Attachment A, page 7 also summarizes the assumption changes and

    their impact on the Citys liability):

    1. New CalPERS Decrements. The most recent CalPERS experience study which gathers

    demographic information throughout the state noted increasing lifespans of retirees,

    decreasing average retirement age, and other factors, all of which increase the Citys

    projected unfunded liability by approximately $8 million.

    2. Recent Spike in Palo Alto Retirements as cost-sharing and wage freezes have been

    implemented, many people have accelerated their retirement plans. There were more

    than the projected retirements between 2009 and 2011. All of the retirements since the

    last study added $2.7 million to the Citys unfunded liability.

    3. Medical Trend Assumptions The table below shows the difference in medical premium

    growth rates assumed in the respective studies. Milliman assumed a slow but steady

    increase in rates ranging from 6.5% in the early years and settling at 5.85% from 2018

    on. On the other hand, Bartel assumes that the rate of increase will be more front-loaded, starting at 9% and settling to 5% per year starting in 2021. Cumulative increases

    assumed in the more recent report are higher than those assumed in 2009. (See

    Attachment B, slide 10 for a comparison of specific medical trend assumptions in the

    two studies, and Attachment C for PERS Medical Plan rate changes 2002-2012.) This

    added $4.8 million to the Citys unfunded liability.

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    4. Actuarial Load This is a 2% premium applied to assumed costs based on the premise

    that PERS Preferred Provider (PPO) Medical Plan premiums have been increasing at a

    slower rate than have claim costs. PERS has been funding the difference from reserves,

    but Bartel believes that eventually rate increases will need to bounce upward to more

    evenly match the increased costs. This anticipated bounce adds $3.4 million to the

    Citys unfunded liability.

    5. Cost Sharing by Miscellaneous Group This change in benefits was implemented after

    the 2009 study and caused the Citys unfunded liability to decrease by $14.2 million.

    Note that the impact of any public safety group concessions is not included in this study.

    6. Migration of Retirees to More Expensive Medical Plans While 13% of actives are

    enrolled in PERS PPO plans, that percentage rises to 32% for retirees under 65, and to

    54% of retirees over 65. This seems to be due to the increased portability of the PPO

    plans for retirees who move out of the area. The last study may not have recognized

    this trend, which adds $7.7 million to the Citys unfunded liability. (See Attachment B,

    slide 7 for enrollment statistics for active and retired employees.)

    7. Asset Smoothing Bartel recommends smoothing gains and losses in the trust balance

    over 5 years, to avoid volatility in the Citys ARC. For example, the year-end 2010 Trust

    balance was $40.2 million, an increase of 26% over the year-end 2009 balance of $32.0

    million. With asset smoothing, the actuarial value of the trust assets for year-end 2010

    would be $35.3 million, since that 26% gain is spread over the next five years. By saving

    some of the market gain for subsequent years when there may be losses, the City

    assumed an additional $4.6 million in unfunded liability.

    8. Closed Amortization Period Rather than continually re-up the 30-year amortizationperiod, which would never actually completely pay off the liability, Bartel recommends

    amortizing over the remaining 28 years of the 30-year period beginning 2009. The

    impact of this change on the Citys unfunded liability is included in that of the

    Demographic and Other Factors discussed below.

    9. Demographic and Other Factors These are ways in which the City's actual experience

    differs from what is assumed in the CalPERS experience study. For example, to the

    extent that City employees retire earlier or later than average, or go out on disability

    more or less than the statewide average, this affects the liability. In our case these

    factors add $12.4 million to our unfunded liability. (See Attachment B, slide 5 forstatistics on active and retired employees included in the study.)

    The General Funds share of the citywide ARC totals approximately $9.5 million annually for

    FY 2012, an increase of $2.7 million from the amount budgeted for FY 2012 based on the

    January 1, 2009 valuation. That amount can be funded from the CERBT trust, if needed. Staff

    will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion by the October 18 Finance

    Committee meeting. (See Attachment D: Results by Fund.)

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    October 18, 2011 Page 4 of 5

    (ID # 2180)

    June 30, 2011 Valuation Date

    The actuarial study using a valuation date of June 30, 2011 valued the City's unfunded liability

    at $139.7 million, which is an increase of $5.0 million over the January 1 valuation date. The

    ARC associated with this valuation is $14.4 million for Fiscal Year 2013, and projected at $14.8

    million for 2014. (Again, see Attachment B, slide 31.) The $0.8 million jump in the ARCbetween FY 2012 and FY 2013 is primarily due to the decrease in assumed discount rate from

    7.75% to 7.25%.

    The reasons for the respective discount rate assumptions are:

    The January 1, 2011 valuation assumed a discount rate of 7.75% as mandated by CERBT.

    Beginning Fiscal Year 2013, CERBT requires that each member agency employ a discount rate

    no higher than 7.61%, as applicable to its selected asset allocation. The trust offers three

    possible asset allocations, of which Option 1 the Citys chosen option - has the highest

    projected yield. CERBTs expected return over a 20-year period for Option 1 Asset

    Classifications is 7.61%, with a 50% confidence limit. Bartel recommends dropping the assumed

    rate to 7.25% to achieve a 60% confidence limit.

    The General Fund portion of the FY 2013 and FY 2014 ARCs is $10.0 million and $10.3 million,

    respectively. Again, staff will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion of the

    FY 2013 and 2014 ARCs by the October 18 Council meeting.

    RESOURCE IMPACT

    The FY 2012 budget allocated $9.8 million towards the ARC for all funds, but this amount was

    an estimate before the actuarial study was completed. The ARC contained in the actuarial study

    was $13.6 million, representing an increase of $3.8 million across all City funds. The GeneralFund portion of the increase is $2.3 million for FY 2012, which may be drawn from the trust, if

    needed. Future years ARC funding will need to be incorporated into those years budgets. Staff

    will provide funding recommendations during the Mid-Year or FY 2013 proposed budget

    process.

    ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW

    The action recommended is not a project for the purposes of the California Environmental

    Quality Act.

    Attachments:

    -a: Attachment A: Executive Summary (PDF)

    -b: Attachment B: Revised Preliminary Results (PDF)

    -c: Attachment C: 2002-2012 PEMHCA Premiums (PDF)

    -d: Attachment D: Results by Fund (PDF)

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    October 18, 2011 Page 5 of 5

    (ID # 2180)

    Prepared By: Nancy Nagel, Senior Financial Analyst

    Department Head: Lalo Perez, Director

    City Manager Approval: ____________________________________

    James Keene, City Manager

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    City of Palo Alto

    Retiree Healthcare PlanJanuary 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial ValuationsExecutive Summary

    October 11, 2011

    Bartel Associates, LLC

    411 Borel Avenue, Suite 101

    San Mateo, California 94402Phone: 650-377-1600Email: [email protected]

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    O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Valuation Executive Summary.doc

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations

    Executive Summary

    October 11, 2011

    Governmental Accounting Standards Board Statement No. 45 (GASB 45), Accounting and FinancialReporting by Employers for Postemployment Benefits Other Than Pensions provides standards for thefinancial reporting of the Citys Retiree Healthcare Plan. The City implemented GASB 45 for the2007/08 fiscal year. The January 1, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financial reporting informationfor the Citys 2011/12 fiscal year and the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financialreporting information for the Citys 2012/13 and 2013/14 fiscal years.

    VALUATION RESULTS

    Participants: The same participant data was used to prepare both the January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011actuarial valuations. A summary of this data as of June 30, 2011 is:

    Participants 6/30/11

    Actives Number 923 Average Age 44.7 Average City Service 10.8 Average PERS Service 13.7 Average Pay $86,007 Total Payroll (000s) $79,384

    Retirees Number 860 Average Age 67.0 Average Retirement Age 55.5

    Plan Assets: Assets must be set aside in a trust that cannot legally be used for any purpose other than topay retiree healthcare benefits in order to be considered plan assets for GASB 45 purposes. The City'sretiree healthcare plan is currently funded with the CalPERS Trust (CERBT).

    The City began prefunding the plans obligations during 2007/08. The Citys intention is to fund the fullARC each year. Investment gains and losses relative to the assumed net rate of return are spread over a 5-year period by using an Actuarial Value of Assets rather than the Market Value of Assets to determine theplans costs and funded status. This helps smooth any volatility in the Market Value of Assets and providesan element of stability for the plan expense and City contributions. The Actuarial Value of Assets is keptwithin a corridor of 80% to 120% of the Market Value to make sure it does not diverge significantly fromthe Market Value of Assets.

    The Market Value of Assets was $40,213,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $35,294,000 on January1, 2011. The Market Value of Assets was $44,774,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $40,222,000on June 30, 2011. The following table shows how the Market Value of Assets changed through 6/30/11 andis projected to change during 2011/12.

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 2

    October 11, 2011

    Plan Assets

    (Amounts in 000s) 2009 2010

    1/1/11-

    6/30/11

    Projected

    2011/12

    Market Value at Beginning of Year $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774

    Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165 Benefit Payments - - - - Administrative Expenses (23) (34) (41) - Investment Earnings 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,246 Market Value at End of Year 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185 Actuarial Value at End of Year 35,294 40,222 49,279 Annualized Investment Return Market Value 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3% Actuarial Value 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7%

    Funded Status: A plans funded status is measured by comparing the Actuarial Accrued Liability (seedefinitions and assumptions section below) with Plan Assets. A plan is considered funded when PlanAssets equal the Actuarial Accrued Liability. As the Citys retiree healthcare plan had not been fundedprior to GASB 45 implementation in 2007/08, the City established a contribution policy that would fundbenefits as earned for each future year and would fund the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability over a30-year period.

    GASB 45 requires the discount rate used to determine the present value of future benefit payments be basedon the source of funds used to pay the benefits. This is the expected long-term net earnings rate on planassets for funded plans and the expected long-term net earnings rate on an agencys investment fund forunfunded plans. A 7.75% and 7.25% discount rate was used for the Citys January 1, 2011 andJune 30, 2011 valuations, respectively, representing the long-term expected net return for the CERBT. See

    page 5 in the Definitions and Assumptions Section for a discussion of the discount rates used in thevaluations.

    The plan was approximately 21% funded as of January 1, 2011, and 22% funded as of June 30, 2011:

    1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation

    Funded Status

    (Amounts in 000s)7.75%

    Discount Rate

    7.25%

    Discount Rate

    Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) Actives $ 51,179 $ 57,479 Retirees 118,800 122,444 Total 169,979 179,923

    Actuarial Value of Plan Assets (AVA) 35,294 40,222 Unfunded AAL (UAAL) 134,685 139,701 Funded Percentage (AVA/AAL) 21% 22%

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC): The Annual Required Contribution is the Normal Cost plus anamortization payment toward the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability. The Normal Cost is the value ofbenefits allocated to the current fiscal year for service worked during that year. The Unfunded Liability is

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 3

    October 11, 2011

    amortized as a level percent of payroll over a period of 28 years as of June 30, 2011 (27 years remainingas of June 30, 2012).

    The Citys Annual Required Contributions for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are as follows:

    7.75% 7.25%Annual Required Contribution

    (Amounts in 000s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791 Unfunded Liability Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054 Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845 Estimated Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992 ARC as a % of Payroll 16.9% 17.3% 17.3% Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs

    Net OPEB Obligation (NOO): The Citys Net OPEB Obligation is the historical difference since GASB

    45 implementation between actual contributions made and Annual Required Contributions. Benefits paidfor current retirees directly from City assets are considered contributions. The Net OPEB Obligationwould be zero for an agency that always contributed the Annual Required Contributions. An agency thatcontributed more than the ARC would have a Net OPEB Asset (NOA).

    Annual OPEB Cost (AOC): The Annual OPEB Cost is the plans fiscal year expense. It is equal to theAnnual Required Contribution plus expected interest on the Net OPEB Obligation less an amortization ofthe Net OPEB Obligation. It is different from the Annual Required Contribution because the AnnualRequired Contribution may include a provision for amounts not yet funded that have been expensed inprior Annual OPEB Costs. The Annual OPEB Cost equals the Annual Required Contribution when theNet OPEB Obligation at the beginning of the year is zero.

    7.75% 7.25%Annual OPEB Cost

    (Amounts in 000s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    Annual Required Contribution $ 13,603 $ 14,378 $ 14,845 Interest on Net OPEB Obligation (1,781) (1,687) (1,705) Amortization of Net OPEB Obligation 1,483 1,451 1,498 Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638 Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs

    The Citys expected Net OPEB Obligations for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are:

    7.75% 7.25%Estimated Net OPEB Obligation

    (Amounts in 000s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at Begin. of Yr $ (22,977) $ (23,275) $ (23,511) Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638 Estimated Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845 Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at End of Yr (23,275) (23,511) (23,718)

    The Citys actual June 30, 2012, June 20, 2013 and June 30, 2014 Net OPEB Obligations will differ fromthose shown above because actual contributions may differ from those estimated.

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 4

    October 11, 2011

    Projection: The following table shows the projected Net OPEB Obligation, Annual RequiredContribution, Annual OPEB Contribution, and City Contribution (including benefit payments paiddirectly by the City) over the next 10 years.

    Full ARC Pre-Funding Projection7.25% Discount Rate1

    (Amounts in 000s)

    ContributionFiscal

    Year

    Ending

    Begin

    Year

    NOO ARC

    Annual

    OPEB

    Cost

    (AOC)

    Benefit

    Pmts

    Pre-

    Funding

    Total

    Contrib Payroll

    Contrib

    % of

    Payroll

    2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9%

    2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3%

    2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3%

    2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3%

    2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3%2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3%

    2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3%

    2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3%

    2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3%

    2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3%

    DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS

    Present Value of Benefits: When an actuary prepares an actuarial valuation, he or she first gathersparticipant data (active employees, retirees, and beneficiaries) as of the valuation date. Using this dataand appropriate actuarial assumptions, the actuary projects the future benefit payments. The actuarialassumptions estimate when employees will retire, terminate, die or become disabled, as well as salaryincreases, inflation, and net investment earnings. The expected future benefit payments are discountedback to the valuation date using the expected net investment return or discount rate. This discountedvalue is the Present Value of Benefits. It represents the funds the plan needs as of the valuation date topay all expected future benefits if all assumptions are realized and no additional contributions are madeby the City. The Citys January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Present Value of Benefits were $204.3 millionand $219.2 million, respectively.

    Actuarial Accrued Liability: The Actuarial Accrued Liability is the portion of the Present Value ofBenefits that has been allocated to prior service through the valuation date. The Citys January 1, 2011and June 30, 2011 Actuarial Accrued Liabilities were $170.0 million and $179.9 million, respectively

    Normal Cost: The Normal Cost is the portion of the Present Value of Benefits allocated to the currentfiscal year. The plans Normal Costs for the 2011/12 and 2012/13 fiscal years are $4.9 million and $5.6million, respectively.

    1 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate.

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 5

    October 11, 2011

    Actuarial Cost Method: The actuarial cost method determines how benefits are allocated to each year ofservice. It has no effect on the Present Value of Benefits but has significant effect on the ActuarialAccrued Liability and Normal Cost. The Citys January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 retiree healthcare

    valuations were prepared using the Entry Age Normal cost method. Under the Entry Age Normal costmethod, the Plans Normal Cost is developed as a level percent of payroll over the participants workinglifetimes.

    Actuarial Assumptions: Under GASB 45, an actuary must follow current actuarial standards of practice.These standards generally call for the use of explicit assumptions which means that each individualassumption must represent the actuary's best estimate for that assumption.

    For the January 1, 2011 valuation, a discount rate of 7.75% was used, as required by CalPERS for plansfunded in the CERBT. In March 2011, the CalPERS Board approved the following changes to the CERBT:

    created 3 different asset allocation strategies, each with different expected returns and volatility, revised the discount rate assumption from a mandated rate (7.75%) to provide agencies and their

    actuaries with the flexibility to select the discount rate (up to a maximum rate based on the selectedasset allocation).

    For each investment option, CalPERS maximum discount rate is the median return2, with lower rates alsobeing acceptable. The following table shows CERBT target asset allocation strategies and CalPERSmaximum discount rates:

    Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

    Asset Allocation Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6% Global Real Estate 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

    Inflation Linked Bonds5.0% 15.0% 15.0%

    U.S. Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

    Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%Bartel Associates recommends a lower discount rate than the maximum to build in some level ofconservatism, so the assumption is expected to be realized (or exceeded) approximately 55% to 60% ofthe time. This results in the following discount rates:

    Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

    60% Realization 7.00% 6.50% 6.00%

    55% Realization 7.25% 6.75% 6.25%

    For the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation, the City chose the Option 1 asset allocation strategy, and agreedthat it would be prudent to build in a margin for conservatism when choosing a discount rate. The discountrate for the June 30, 2011 valuation is 7.25%, which represents an estimated 55% confidence level thatactual future returns will be at least that high. The change in discount rate from 7.75% to 7.25% between

    2 The median return represents the return at which of the returns are expected to be higher and lower.

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 6

    October 11, 2011

    these two valuations results in a $10.6 million actuarial loss.

    The January 1, 2009 Milliman valuation used actual premiums for 2009, and then used a healthcare inflationrate of 6.5% from 2010-2014, 6.0% from 2015-2017, and 5.85% for each year thereafter. In the January 1,

    2011 valuation, actual premiums were used for 2011 and 2012. The healthcare inflation rate for non-Medicare eligible participants starts at 9.0% (the increase in 2013 premiums over 2012 premiums) andgrades down to 5% after 8 years. The healthcare inflation rate for Medicare eligible participants starts 0.4%higher and also grades down to 5% after 8 years. This change in medical trend leads to a $4.8 millionincrease in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. This is partially offset by a $3.9 million gain, because of thedifference between actual 2011 and 2012 premiums and projected 2011 and 2012 premiums from theJanuary 1, 2009 valuation.

    A 2% load was added in the January 1, 2011 valuation, to take into account that recent PEMHCA PPOpremium increases are believed to be below per capita claims increases. This load results in a $3.4 millionincrease in the Actuarial Accrued Liability.

    Retirement, disability, termination, and mortality assumptions were changed from the CalPERS 97-02Experience Study in the January 1, 2009 valuation to the CalPERS 97-07 Experience Study in the January 1,2011 and June 30, 2011 valuations. This change results in a $7.9 million increase in the Actuarial AccruedLiability.

    Another key January 1, 2011 valuation assumption change is the assumed medical plan at retirement. Webelieve the 2009 valuation assumed each active participant remained in the same plan at retirement andMedicare eligibility (at age 65). The January 1, 2011 valuation assumes percentages, as shown below, basedupon actual participation of current retirees, which differs substantially from the participation of currentactives. This change increased the Actuarial Accrued Liability by approximately $7.7 million.

    Medical Plan at Retirement

    Miscellaneous Safety

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 7

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    Changes From January 1, 2009 Valuation to January 1, 2011 Valuation

    AAL (AVA) UAAL

    Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045 Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649 Assumption Changes

    Medical Trend 4,840 4,840 New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916 Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421 Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740 Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625

    Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552 Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452) Plan Change Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194) Experience (Gains)/Losses

    Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917) New Retirees 2,700 2,700 Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383

    Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614 Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263

    Changes From January 1, 2011 Valuation to June 30, 2011 Valuation

    AAL (AVA) UAAL

    Actual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685 Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263 Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561 Assumption Changes

    Discount Rate 10,613 10,613 Experience (Gains)/Losses

    Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510) Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103 Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663

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    City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan

    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 8

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    RETIREE HEALTHCARE BENEFITS

    Eligibility Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years ofCalPERS service or disability)

    Retiree Medical(Hired 1/1/074 Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic

    medical plan in the Bay Area Region

    For non-Safety Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPARetired > 4/1/115, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared evenly

    between City and employee, up to 10% Retiree Medical

    (Hired>1/1/046) Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)7:

    Years of Service %< 10 0%10 50%

    > 20 100%

    Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts:2011 2012

    Single $ 542 $ 566

    2-Party 1,030 1,074Family 1,326 1,382

    Police and Fire with 20 years City service do not need to retire directlyfrom City

    For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/118, all premiumincreases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, upto 10%

    Dental, Vision &Life

    None

    3 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA4 1/1/08 for PAPOA5 2/1/10 for SEIU6 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA7 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement8 2/1/10 for SEIU

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    January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary

    Page 9

    October 11, 2011

    Surviving SpouseBenefit

    100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree electsCalPERS survivor allowance

    Benefit Changesfrom PriorValuation

    New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases forMgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011

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    CITY OF PALO ALTORETIREE HEALTHCARE PLAN

    January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations

    Revised Preliminary Results

    Presented by John E. Bartel, President

    Prepared by Deanna Van Valer, Assistant Vice President & ActuaryAdam Zimmerer, Actuarial AnalystBartel Associates, LLC

    October 11, 2011

    Agenda

    O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Revised Preliminary Val Results.doc

    Topic PageBenefit Summary 1

    Participant Statistics 5

    Actuarial Assumptions Highlights 9

    Actuarial Methods 15

    Assets 17

    Results January 1, 2011 Valuation 19

    Results June 30, 2011 Valuation 29CERBT Investment Options 41

    Bartel Associates GASB 45 Database 43

    Other Issues 46

    Exhibits 48

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    October 11, 2011 1

    BENEFIT SUMMARY

    Eligibility Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years ofCalPERS service or disability)

    MedicalProvider

    CalPERS health plans (PEMHCA) Non-Safety PEMHCA resolution provides only for PEMHCA

    minimum (additional benefits paid by City)

    Retiree Medical(Hired 1/1/072 Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic

    medical plan in the Bay Area Region

    For non-Safety Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPARetired > 4/1/113, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 sharedevenly between City and employee, up to 10%

    11/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA

    2 1/1/08 for PAPOA3 2/1/10 for SEIU

    October 11, 2011 2

    BENEFIT SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical(Hired>1/1/044)

    Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)5:Years of Service %

    < 10 0%10 50%

    > 20 100%

    Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts:2011 2012

    Single $ 542 $ 5662-Party 1,030 1,074

    Family 1,326 1,382 Police and Fire with 20 years City service do not need to retire

    directly from City

    For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/116, allpremium increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between Cityand employee, up to 10%

    4 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA5 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement6

    2/1/10 for SEIU

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    October 11, 2011 3

    BENEFIT SUMMARY

    Dental, Vision& Life

    None Surviving

    Spouse Benefit 100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree

    elects CalPERS survivor allowance

    BenefitChanges fromPrior Valuation

    New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increasesfor Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011

    Pay-As-You-Go ($000s)

    FY 2011/12 (Est) $8,142 FY 2010/11 $6,216 FY 2009/10 $5,519 FY 2008/09 $5,204 FY 2007/08 $4,646

    October 11, 2011 4

    BENEFIT SUMMARY

    ImpliedSubsidy

    Non-Medicare eligible retirees pay active rates instead of actual cost Active employee premiums subsidize retiree cost

    Single Retiree Medical Cost

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

    Age

    MonthlyCost

    PremiumMale CostFemale Cost

    GASB 45 includes active implied subsidy with retiree cost Community rated plans not required to value implied subsidy PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers Valuation does not include an implied subsidy

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    October 11, 2011 5

    PARTICIPANT STATISTICS

    Participant StatisticsJune 30, 2011

    7 1 retiree with missing birth date assumed to retire at average retirement age8 Excludes 3 retirees with missing retirement date

    Miscellaneous Police Fire Total

    Actives Count 737 82 104 923 Average Age 45.7 38.2 43.4 44.7 Average City Service 10.4 10.8 14.0 10.8 Average PERS Service 13.8 11.4 15.0 13.7 Average Salary $78,762 $117,924 $112,185 $86,007 Total Salary (000s) $58,047 $9,670 $11,667 $79,384

    Retirees: Count 659 87 114 860 Average Age7 67.5 63.0 67.2 67.0 Average Retirement Age8 57.2 47.9 52.1 55.5

    October 11, 2011 6

    PARTICIPANT STATISTICS

    Participant Statistics9January 1, 2009

    9From 1/1/09 Milliman report

    Miscellaneous Police Fire Total

    Actives Count n/a n/a n/a 955 Average Age n/a n/a n/a 45.3 Average City Service n/a n/a n/a 11.2 Average Salary n/a n/a n/a $103,602 Total Salary (000s) n/a n/a n/a $98,940

    Retirees: Count n/a n/a n/a 710 Average Age n/a n/a n/a 67.2 Average Retirement Age n/a n/a n/a n/a

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    October 11, 2011 7

    PARTICIPANT STATISTICS

    Medical Plan ParticipationNon-Waived Participants

    Retirees

    Medical Plan Actives < 65 65 Total

    Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27%

    Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0%

    Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25%

    PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19%

    PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25%

    PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5%

    Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

    October 11, 2011 8

    PARTICIPANT STATISTICS

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    October 11, 2011 9

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation10January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Valuation Date January 1, 2009 Fiscal Years 2009/10 &

    2010/11 ARCs (end of year)

    January 1, 2011 Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end

    of year)

    June 30, 2011

    Fiscal Years 2012/13 &2013/14 ARCs (end of year)

    Funding Policy Full Pre-funding throughCalPERS trust (CERBT)

    Same Discount Rate 7.75% 1/1/11 7.75%

    6/30/11 7.25% Payroll

    Increases Aggregate Increases 3.25% Merit Increases CalPERS

    1997-2002 Experience Study

    Aggregate Increases 3.25% Merit Increases CalPERS

    1997-2007 Experience Study

    10 From 1/1/09 Milliman report

    October 11, 2011 10

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Medical TrendYear

    Increase fromPrior Year

    2009 Premiums2010 6.50%2011 6.50%2012 6.50%2013 6.50%2014 6.50%2015 6.00%2016 6.00%

    2017 6.00%2018+ 5.85%

    Increase from Prior YearYear Non-Medicare Medicare2009 n/a2010 n/a2011 Premiums2012 Premiums2013 9.0% 9.4%2014 8.5% 8.9%2015 8.0% 8.3%2016 7.5% 7.8%

    2021+ 5.0% 5.0%

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    October 11, 2011 11

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation10January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Actuarial Load n/a 2.0% load PEMHCA PPO premium

    increases below per capitaclaims increases

    Retirement,Mortality,Termination,Disability

    CalPERS 1997-2002Experience Study

    Misc Fire Police

    Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50

    CalPERS 1997-2007Experience Study

    Misc Fire Police

    Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50

    2%@6011

    ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0

    Participation atRetirement

    n/a DOH < 1/1/04: 100% DOH > 1/1/04: 95% Employees with cost sharing:

    reduce above %s by 5%

    11 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010

    October 11, 2011 12

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Medical Plan atRetirement

    n/a Miscellaneous:

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    October 11, 2011 13

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation10January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    MedicareEligible Rate

    n/a Actives hired < 4/1/86: Miscellaneous 80% Safety 90%

    Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100% Retirees < 65: 90% Everyone eligible for

    Medicare will elect Part Bcoverage

    Missing PERSGroup

    n/a Retirees missing PERS groupassumed to be Misc unlessfund designates Police or Fire

    October 11, 2011 14

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS

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    October 11, 2011 15

    ACTUARIAL METHODS

    Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Cost Method Entry Age Normal Level % ofPay

    Same Unfunded

    LiabilityAmortization

    30 years open period 28 years (closed period) FreshStart for total 6/30/2011 UAAL(27 years remaining on 6/30/12)

    15 years (closed period) forfuture gains and losses

    Maximum 30-year combinedperiod

    12 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman.

    October 11, 2011 16

    ACTUARIAL METHODS

    Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    ActuarialValue ofAssets

    Market Value of Assets Investment gains and lossesspread over a 5-year rollingperiod

    Not less than 80% nor more than120% of market value

    Same as CalPERS, but shorterperiod

    ImpliedSubsidy

    Employer cost for allowing retirees to participate at active rates

    Community rated plans are not required to value an implied subsidyif active rates are independent of number of retirees

    PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers Valuation does not include an implied subsidy

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    October 11, 2011 17

    ASSETS

    Market Value of Plan Assets(amounts in 000s)

    2009 20101/1/11-6/30/11

    Projected2011/12

    MVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774 Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165 Benefit Payments13 - - - - Admin. Expenses (23) (34) (41) - Investment Return 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,24614

    MVA (End of Year) 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185Approx. Annual Return 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3%

    13 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts.14 Investment return based on 7.25% net of expenses

    October 11, 2011 18

    ASSETS

    Actuarial Value of Plan Assets(amounts in 000s)

    2009 20101/1/11-6/30/11

    Projected2011/12

    AVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 28,209 $ 35,294 $ 40,222 Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165 Benefit Payments15 - - - - Exp. Inv. Return 1,935 2,323 1,342 2,916

    Exp. AVA (End of Year) 27,251 34,064 39,084 48,303Preliminary AVA 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279

    Min AVA (80% MVA) 25,633 32,170 35,819 42,548 Max AVA (120% MVA) 38,450 48,255 53,729 63,822

    AVA (End of Year) 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279Approx. Annual Return 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7%

    15

    Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts.

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    October 11, 2011 19

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Funded Status 7.75% Discount Rate(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/0916 1/1/11Projected

    6/30/11 Present Value of Benefits

    Actives $ 78,831 $ 85,476 Retirees 78,384 118,800 Total 157,215 204,276

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 51,277 51,179 Retirees 78,384 118,800 Total 129,661 169,979 $ 174,485

    Actuarial Value of Assets (AVA) 24,616 35,294 40,222 Unfunded AAL 105,045 134,685 134,263 Funded Ratio 19% 21% Normal Cost 3,478 4,937 Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,075 8,438

    16 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman.

    October 11, 2011 20

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Gain/Loss 7.75% Discount Rate(000s Omitted)

    AAL (AVA) UAALActual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649Assumption Changes

    Medical Trend 4,840 4,840 New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916 Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421 Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740 Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625

    Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)Plan Change Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)Experience (Gains)/Losses

    Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917) New Retirees 2,700 2,700 Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383

    Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263

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    October 11, 2011 21

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC) 7.75% Discount Rate(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 ValuationAnnual Required Contribution 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

    ARC - $ Normal Cost $ 3,478 $ 3,591 $ 4,937 UAAL Amortization 6,308 6,757 8,666 Total 9,786 10,348 13,603

    Projected Payroll 98,940 102,156 80,664 ARC - % Pay

    Normal Cost 3.5% 3.5% 6.1% UAAL Amortization 6.4% 6.6% 10.7% Total 9.9% 10.1% 16.9%

    October 11, 2011 22

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration 7.75% Discount Rate(Amounts in 000s)

    Estimated Net OPEB Obligation(Asset)

    CAFR2009/10

    Estimate2010/11

    Estimate2011/12

    NOO at Beginning of Year $(26,352) $(23,242) $(22,977) Annual OPEB Cost

    Annual Required Contribution 9,786 10,349 13,603 Interest on NOO (2,042) (1,801) (1,781) NOO Adjustment 2,585 2,213 1,483 Annual OPEB Cost 10,329 10,760 13,306

    Contributions Benefit Payments Outside Trust17 5,519 6,216 8,438 Trust Funding 1,70018 4,280 5,165 Total Contributions 7,219 10,496 13,603

    NOO at End of Year (23,242) (22,977) (23,275)

    17 Estimated cash payments shown for years after 2010/11. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote.18

    Shortly after year end, the City contributed another $1.832 million to the trust

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    October 11, 2011 23

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Amortization Bases 7.75% Discount Rate(000s Omitted)

    1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation

    6/30/2009 6/30/2010 6/30/2011

    Outstanding Balance 2009 UAAL $ 105,045 $ 106,878 $ n/a 2010 Gains & Losses - 2,567 n/a 2011 Fresh Start UAAL - - 134,263 Total 105,045 109,445 134,263

    October 11, 2011 24

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Amortization Payments 7.75% Discount Rate(000s Omitted)

    1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation

    2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

    Amortization Payment - $ 2009 UAAL19 $ 6,308 $ 6,513 $ n/a 2010 Gains & Losses - 244 n/a 2011 Fresh Start UAAL20 - - 8,666 Total 6,308 6,757 8,666

    19 Amortized over 30 years beginning 2009/1020

    Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12

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    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Obligations 7.75% Discount RateJanuary 1, 2011(Amounts in 000s)

    Benefits Age 65

    Total

    Present Value of Benefits Actives $ 45,464 $ 40,013 $ 85,476 Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800 Total 83,041 121,236 204,276

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 26,106 25,074 51,179 Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800 Total 63,683 106,297 169,979

    Normal Cost 2,711 2,226 4,937

    October 11, 2011 26

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

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    October 11, 2011 27

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Obligations 7.75% Discount RateJanuary 1, 2011(Amounts in 000s)

    Misc Police Fire Total Present Value of Benefits

    Actives $ 54,725 $ 12,832 $ 17,919 $ 85,476 Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800 Total 140,834 27,554 35,888 204,276

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 33,204 6,496 11,479 51,179 Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800 Total 119,313 21,218 29,448 169,979

    Actuarial Value of Assets21 24,774 4,406 6,114 35,294 Unfunded AAL 94,539 16,812 23,334 134,685 Normal Cost 3,381 719 836 4,937 Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,285 935 1,218 8,438

    21 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.

    October 11, 2011 28

    RESULTS JANUARY 1,2011VALUATION

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC) 7.75% Discount Rate2011/12 Fiscal Year

    (Amounts in 000s)

    Misc Police Fire Total

    ARC - $ Normal Cost $ 3,381 $ 719 $ 836 $ 4,937 UAAL Amortization22 6,072 1,087 1,507 8,666 ARC 9,453 1,807 2,344 13,603

    Projected Payroll 58,983 9,826 11,855 80,664 ARC - %

    Normal Cost 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 6.1% UAAL Amortization 10.3% 11.1% 12.7% 10.7% ARC 16.0% 18.4% 19.8% 16.9%

    22 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.

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    October 11, 2011 29

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Obligations(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation

    1/1/11Projected

    6/30/11 6/30/11Projected

    6/30/12

    7.75% 7.25% Present Value of Benefits Actives $ 85,476 $ 96,769 Retirees 118,800 122,444 Total 204,276 219,213

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 51,179 57,479 Retirees 118,800 122,444 Total 169,979 $ 174,485 179,923 $ 189,943

    Actuarial Value of Assets 35,294 40,222 40,222 49,279 Unfunded AAL 134,685 134,263 139,701 140,663 Funded Ratio 21% 22% Normal Cost 4,937 5,609 Pay-As-You-Go Cost 8,438 9,986

    October 11, 2011 30

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Gain/Loss(000s Omitted)

    AAL (AVA) UAALActual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561Assumption Changes

    Discount Rate 10,613 10,613Experience (Gains)/Losses

    Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510)Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663

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    October 11, 2011 31

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC)(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 ValuationAnnual Required Contribution 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    7.75% 7.25%

    ARC - $ Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791 UAAL Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054 Total 13,603 14,378 14,845

    Projected Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992 ARC - %Pay

    Normal Cost 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% UAAL Amortization 10.7% 10.6% 10.6% Total 16.9% 17.3% 17.3%

    October 11, 2011 32

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

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    October 11, 2011 33

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Amortization Bases(000s Omitted)

    1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation

    6/30/2011 6/30/2012 6/30/2013

    7.75% 7.25%

    Outstanding Balance 2011 Fresh Start UAAL $ 134,263 $ 140,663 $ 142,093 Total 134,263 140,663 142,093

    October 11, 2011 34

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Amortization Payments(000s Omitted)

    1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation

    2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    7.75% 7.25%

    Amortization Payment - $ 2011 Fresh Start UAAL23 $ 8,666 $ 8,769 $ 9,054 Total 8,666 8,769 9,054

    23Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12

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    October 11, 2011 35

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 ValuationEstimated Net OPEB Obligation

    (Asset)Estimate2011/12

    Estimate2012/13

    Estimate2013/14

    NOO at Beginning of Year $(22,977) $(23,275) $(23,511) Annual OPEB Cost Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845 Interest on NOO (1,781) (1,687) (1,705) NOO Adjustment 1,483 1,451 1,498 Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638

    Contributions Benefit Payments Outside Trust24 8,438 8,988 9,986 Trust Funding 5,165 5,390 4,859 Total Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845

    NOO at End of Year (23,275) (23,511) (23,718)

    24 Estimated cash payments shown for all years. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote.

    October 11, 2011 36

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Estimated Full ARC Funding Projection 7.25% Discount Rate25(Amounts in 000s)

    ContributionFiscalYearEnd

    BeginYearNOO ARC

    AnnualOPEBCost

    (AOC)BenefitPmts

    Pre-Funding

    TotalContrib Pay

    Contrib% of

    Payroll

    2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9%

    2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3%

    2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3%

    2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3%2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3%

    2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3%

    2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3%2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3%

    2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3%

    2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3%

    25Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate.

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    October 11, 2011 37

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Obligations 7.25% Discount RateJune 30, 2011

    (Amounts in 000s)

    Benefits Age 65

    Total

    Present Value of Benefits Actives $ 49,568 $ 47,201 $ 96,769 Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444 Total 85,650 133,562 219,213

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 28,139 29,340 57,479 Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444 Total 64,221 115,701 179,923

    Normal Cost 2,978 2,631 5,609

    October 11, 2011 38

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Actuarial Obligations 7.25% Discount RateJune 30, 2011

    (Amounts in 000s)

    Misc Police Fire Total Present Value of Benefits

    Actives $ 61,777 $ 14,823 $ 20,168 $ 96,769 Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444 Total 150,340 30,063 38,809 219,213

    Actuarial Accrued Liability Actives 37,268 7,445 12,766 57,479 Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444 Total 125,831 22,685 31,407 179,923

    Actuarial Value of Assets26 28,129 5,071 7,021 40,222 Unfunded AAL 97,702 17,614 24,386 139,701 Normal Cost 3,823 825 960 5,609 Pay-As-You-Go Cost 7,385 1,132 1,469 9,986

    26 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.

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    October 11, 2011 39

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC) 7.25% Discount Rate2012/13 Fiscal Year

    (Amounts in 000s)

    Misc Police Fire Total

    ARC - $ Normal Cost $ 3,823 $ 825 $ 960 $ 5,609 UAAL Amortization27 6,111 1,116 1,541 8,769 ARC 9,934 1,941 2,501 14,378

    Projected Payroll 60,900 10,145 12,240 83,285 ARC - %

    Normal Cost 6.3% 8.1% 7.8% 6.7% UAAL Amortization 10.0% 11.0% 12.6% 10.5% ARC 16.3% 19.1% 20.4% 17.3%

    27 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.

    October 11, 2011 40

    RESULTS JUNE 30,2011VALUATION

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    October 11, 2011 41

    CERBTINVESTMENT OPTIONS

    Additional CERBT asset allocations and revised discount rate assumption Agency selects one option effective July 1, 2011

    Target asset allocationsAsset Classifications Option 1 Option 2 Option 3Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6%US Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4%

    REIT's 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%U.S. Inflation Linked Bonds 5.0% 15.0% 15.0%Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

    CalPERS reported expected returns (20 year period):Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

    75% Confidence Limit28 5.80% 5.60% 5.25%50% Confidence Limit 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%25% Confidence Limit 9.43% 8.52% 7.47%

    Standard Deviation 11.73% 9.46% 7.27%

    28 Confidence Limits Actual Return will exceed the given rate with indicated probabilities, rates vary by year.

    October 11, 2011 42

    CERBTINVESTMENT OPTIONS

    CalPERS discount rate development: 1st 10 year expected returns based on asset advisors 10 year projections Significantly higher returns assumed after 10 years based on long term historical returns implies actuarial losses in 1st 10 years achievable?

    Requirement that discount rate cannot be greater than 50% confidence limit rateBartel Associates Recommendation: select rate at 55% or 60% confidence limit

    Option 1 Option 2 Option 355% Confidence Limit

    Discount Rate 7.25% 6.75% 6.25%Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.36%) (0.31%) (0.14%)

    60% Confidence LimitDiscount Rate 7.00% 6.50% 6.00%Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.61%) (0.56%) (0.39%)

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    October 11, 2011 43

    BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB45DATABASE

    50% of 90% of 100% of

    results results results

    are are are

    within within within

    this this this

    range range range

    0th Percentile

    GASB 45

    50th Percentile

    100th Percentile

    Sample Percentile Graph

    Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison

    95th Percentile

    5th Percentile

    75th Percentile

    25th Percentile

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    55%

    60%

    PercentofPay

    October 11, 2011 44

    BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB45DATABASE

    Miscellaneous

    NC ARC NC ARC

    95th Percentile 11.7% 31.4% 11.9% 32.2%

    75th Percentile 7.5% 19.4% 7.0% 20.5%

    50th Percentile 3.6% 8.9% 2.9% 10.2%

    25th Percentile 1.3% 3.3% 1.4% 3.6%

    5th Percentile 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1.8%

    Percent of Pay 6.3% 16.3% 8.0% 19.9%

    Percentile 67% 67% 82% 73%

    Safety

    Discount Rate = 7.25%, Amortization Period = 27 Years

    GASB 45

    Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison

    Normal Cost & Annual Required Contribution

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    PercentofPay

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    October 11, 2011 45

    BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB45DATABASE

    95th Percentile 251% 275%

    75th Percentile 151% 166%

    50th Percentile 74% 87%

    25th Percentile 23% 28%

    5th Percentile 8% 12%

    Percent of Pay 207% 242%

    Percentile 89% 92%

    Miscellaneous Safety

    Discount Rate = 7.25%

    GASB 45

    Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison

    Actuarial Accrued Liability

    0%

    50%

    100%

    150%

    200%

    250%

    300%

    350%

    400%

    450%

    500%

    Percento

    fPay

    October 11, 2011 46

    OTHER ISSUES

    GASB Pension Accounting Exposure Draft for pension accounting changes issued 7/8/2011: Usually the last public document issued before issuing final statement Similar views expected for OPEB Comment deadline 9/30/11 Likely effective for 2013/14 fiscal year

    Major issues: Unfunded liability on balance sheet Lower discount rate if funding less than ARC Immediate recognition of:

    Service & Interest Cost Benefit changes Inactive gains/losses & assumption changes

    Deferred recognition of: Active gains/losses & assumption changes, over (future working lifetime)

    closed period Asset gains/losses, over 5 years

    Entry age normal cost methodNational Health Care Reform Too early to know impact

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    October 11, 2011 47

    OTHER ISSUES

    Timing:Present preliminary results September 26, 2011Present revised preliminary results October 11, 2011

    October 11, 2011 48

    EXHIBITS

    Topic Page

    Premiums E- 1

    Data Summary E- 3

    Actuarial Assumptions E-29

    Definitions E-36

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    October 11, 2011 E-1

    PREMIUMS

    2011 PEMHCA Monthly PremiumsBay Area

    Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible

    Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family

    Blue Shield $675.51 $1,351.02 $1,756.33 $337.88 $675.76 $1,013.64

    Blue Shield NetValue 581.24 1,162.48 1,511.22 337.88 675.76 1,013.64

    Kaiser 568.99 1,137.98 1,479.37 282.30 564.60 846.90

    PERS Choice 563.40 1,126.80 1,464.84 375.88 751.76 1,127.64

    PERS Select 492.68 985.36 1,280.97 375.88 751.76 1,127.64

    PERSCare 893.95 1,787.90 2,324.27 433.66 867.32 1,300.98

    PORAC 527.00 987.00 1,254.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00

    October 11, 2011 E-2

    PREMIUMS

    2012 PEMHCA Monthly PremiumsBay Area

    Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible

    Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family

    Blue Shield Access+ $711.10 $1,422.20 $1,848.86 $337.99 $675.98 $1,013.97

    Blue Shield NetValue 611.59 1,223.18 1,590.13 337.99 675.98 1,013.97

    Kaiser 610.44 1,220.88 1,587.14 277.81 555.62 833.43

    PERS Choice 574.15 1,148.30 1,492.79 383.44 766.88 1,150.32

    PERS Select 487.39 974.78 1,267.21 383.44 766.88 1,150.32

    PERSCare 1,029.23 2,058.46 2,676.00 432.43 864.86 1,297.29

    PORAC 556.00 1,041.00 1,323.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00

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    October 11, 2011 E-3

    DATA SUMMARY

    Active Medical CoverageBay Area Plans

    Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Waived Total

    Blue Shield 90 68 210 - 368

    Blue Shield NetValue 2 1 1 - 4

    Kaiser 74 65 151 - 290

    PERS Choice 22 39 47 - 108

    PERSCare - - 1 - 1

    PORAC 12 7 54 - 73

    Waived - - - 79 79

    Total 200 180 464 79 923

    October 11, 2011 E-4

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical Coverage - Under Age 65Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total

    Bay Area 48 42 25 115

    Los Angeles 1 - - 1

    Northern CA - 1 1 2

    Sacramento 4 3 1 8

    Blue Shield

    Southern CA - 1 - 1

    Bay Area 37 26 11 74

    Northern CA 2 1 3 6

    Out of State - 5 1 6

    Sacramento 3 3 - 6

    Kaiser

    Southern CA 2 1 1 4

    Bay Area 22 19 7 48

    Northern CA 3 2 - 5

    Out of State 7 13 2 22

    Sacramento 1 - - 1

    PERS Choice

    Southern CA 2 - - 2

    Bay Area 11 5 2 18

    Northern CA 1 2 - 3

    Out of State 13 2 - 15

    Sacramento 2 - 1 3

    PERSCare

    Southern CA 1 - - 1

    PORAC 10 14 12 36

    Total 170 140 67 377

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    October 11, 2011 E-5

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical Coverage - Over Age 65

    Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total

    Bay Area 53 40 2 95

    Northern CA - 2 - 2

    Sacramento 1 - - 1

    Blue Shield

    Southern CA 2 3 - 5

    Blue Shield NetValue Southern CA 1 - - 1

    Bay Area 44 42 6 92

    Northern CA 2 2 - 4Out of State 4 3 - 7

    Sacramento 6 6 1 13

    Kaiser

    Southern CA 1 - - 1

    Bay Area 14 21 - 35

    Los Angeles 1 - - 1

    Northern CA 3 5 1 9

    Out of State 12 17 2 31

    Sacramento 1 3 - 4

    PERS Choice

    Southern CA 4 1 - 5

    Bay Area 47 34 - 81

    Northern CA 9 7 - 16

    Out of State 41 19 2 62

    Sacramento 3 4 - 7

    PERSCare

    Southern CA 5 3 - 8

    PORAC 1 1 1 3

    Total 255 213 15 483

    October 11, 2011 E-6

    DATA SUMMARY

    Medical Plan ParticipationNon-Waived Participants

    Retirees

    Medical Plan Actives < 65 65 Total

    Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27%

    Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0%

    Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25%

    PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19%

    PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25%

    PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5%

    Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

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    October 11, 2011 E-7

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical Coverage by Age GroupMiscellaneous

    Age Single 2-Party Family Total

    Under 50 2 - 2 4

    50-54 20 17 8 4555-59 55 38 17 110

    60-64 61 62 14 137

    65-69 58 68 5 131

    70-74 55 41 1 97

    75-79 32 23 - 55

    80-84 24 15 1 40

    Over 85 28 12 - 40

    Total 335 276 48 659

    Average Age 68.7 67.4 59.5 67.5

    October 11, 2011 E-8

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Age Distribution

    Miscellaneous

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

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    October 11, 2011 E-9

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical Coverage by Age GroupPolice

    Age Single 2-Party Family Total

    Under 50 5 3 1 9

    50-54 6 3 4 1355-59 8 5 4 17

    60-64 8 6 2 16

    65-69 6 3 1 10

    70-74 5 1 - 6

    75-79 4 2 - 6

    80-84 4 4 - 8

    Over 85 2 - - 2

    Total 48 27 12 87

    Average Age 64.8 62.7 56.5 63.0

    October 11, 2011 E-10

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Age Distribution

    Police

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

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    October 11, 2011 E-11

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Medical Coverage by Age GroupFire

    Age Single 2-Party Family Total

    Under 50 1 1 3 5

    50-54 1 2 10 1355-59 5 2 4 11

    60-64 7 8 3 18

    65-69 4 8 2 14

    70-74 11 16 - 27

    75-79 5 8 - 13

    80-84 4 4 - 8

    Over 85 4 1 - 5

    Total 42 50 22 114

    Average Age 70.6 69.8 55.0 67.2

    October 11, 2011 E-12

    DATA SUMMARY

    Retiree Age Distribution

    Fire

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

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    October 11, 2011 E-13

    DATA SUMMARY

    Actives by Age and ServiceMiscellaneous

    City Service

    Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25 Total

    < 25 1 2 1 - - - - 4

    25-29 9 22 11 2 - - - 44

    30-34 7 39 23 16 4 - - 89

    35-39 6 25 25 23 3 - - 82

    40-44 3 24 21 31 14 3 - 96

    45-49 4 31 17 46 34 23 5 160

    50-54 7 20 23 31 23 15 14 133

    55-59 1 13 11 25 11 10 4 75

    60-64 - 8 4 13 8 7 - 40

    65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14Total 38 184 138 190 101 59 27 737

    October 11, 2011 E-14

    DATA SUMMARY

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    October 11, 2011 E-15

    DATA SUMMARY

    Active Age Distribution

    Miscellaneous

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    25

    Service

    Number

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    October 11, 2011 E-17

    DATA SUMMARY

    Actives by Age and ServicePolice

    City Service

    Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25 Total

    < 25 - 2 - - - - - 2

    25-29 1 6 2 - - - - 9

    30-34 1 10 9 1 - - - 21

    35-39 - 3 6 7 2 1 - 19

    40-44 - - 3 1 4 1 - 9

    45-49 - - 1 2 6 4 4 17

    50-54 - 1 1 1 - 1 1 5

    55-59 - - - - - - - -

    60-64 - - - - - - - -

    65 - - - - - - - -Total 2 22 22 12 12 7 5 82

    October 11, 2011 E-18

    DATA SUMMARY

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    October 11, 2011 E-19

    DATA SUMMARY

    Active Age Distribution

    Police

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    25

    Service

    Number

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    October 11, 2011 E-21

    DATA SUMMARY

    Actives by Age and ServiceFire

    City Service

    Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25 Total

    < 25 1 2 - - - - - 3

    25-29 - 3 2 - - - - 5

    30-34 2 3 4 - - - - 9

    35-39 - 4 4 10 1 - - 19

    40-44 - - 4 9 3 1 - 17

    45-49 - 1 4 7 6 13 2 33

    50-54 - - - 2 - 5 7 14

    55-59 - - - 1 - - 1 2

    60-64 - - - - - 1 1 2

    65 - - - - - - - -Total 3 13 18 29 10 20 11 104

    October 11, 2011 E-22

    DATA SUMMARY

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    October 11, 2011 E-23

    DATA SUMMARY

    Active Age Distribution

    Fire

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    25

    Service

    Number

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    October 11, 2011 E-25

    DATA SUMMARY

    Actives by Age and ServiceTotal

    City Service

    Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25 Total

    < 25 2 6 1 - - - - 9

    25-29 10 31 15 2 - - - 58

    30-34 10 52 36 17 4 - - 119

    35-39 6 32 35 40 6 1 - 120

    40-44 3 24 28 41 21 5 - 122

    45-49 4 32 22 55 46 40 11 210

    50-54 7 21 24 34 23 21 22 152

    55-59 1 13 11 26 11 10 5 77

    60-64 - 8 4 13 8 8 1 42

    65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14Total 43 219 178 231 123 86 43 923

    October 11, 2011 E-26

    DATA SUMMARY

    This page intentionally blank

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    October 11, 2011 E-27

    DATA SUMMARY

    Active Age Distribution

    Total

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    25

    Service

    Number

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    October 11, 2011 E-29

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Valuation Date January 1, 2009 Fiscal Years 2009/10 &

    2010/11 ARCs (end of year)

    January 1, 2011 Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end

    of year)

    June 30, 2011 Fiscal Years 2012/13 &

    2013/14 ARCs (end of year)

    Funding Policy Full Pre-funding throughCalPERS trust (CERBT)

    Same General

    Inflation 3.00% Same

    Discount Rate 7.75% 1/1/11 7.75% 6/30/11 7.25%

    29 From 1/1/09 Milliman report

    October 11, 2011 E-30

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    PayrollIncreases

    Aggregate Increases 3.25% Merit Increases CalPERS

    1997-2002 Experience Study

    Aggregate Increases 3.25% Merit Increases CalPERS

    1997-2007 Experience Study

    Medical TrendYear

    Increase fromPrior Year

    2009 Premiums2010 6.50%2011 6.50%2012 6.50%

    2013 6.50%2014 6.50%2015 6.00%2016 6.00%2017 6.00%2018+ 5.85%

    Increase from Prior YearYear Non-Medicare Medicare2009 n/a2010 n/a2011 Premiums2012 Premiums

    2013 9.0% 9.4%2014 8.5% 8.9%2015 8.0% 8.3%2016 7.5% 7.8%2017 7.0% 7.2%2018 6.5% 6.7%2019 6.0% 6.1%2020 5.5% 5.6%2021+ 5.0% 5.0%

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    October 11, 2011 E-31

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Actuarial Load n/a 2.0% load PEMHCA PPO premium

    increases below per capitaclaims increases

    Mortality,Termination,Disability

    CalPERS 1997-2002Experience Study

    CalPERS 1997-2007Experience Study

    Retirement CalPERS 1997-2002Experience Study

    Misc Fire Police

    Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50

    CalPERS 1997-2007Experience Study

    Misc Fire Police

    Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50

    2%@6030

    ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0

    30 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010

    October 11, 2011 E-32

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Participation atRetirement

    n/a Hired < 1/1/04: 100% Hired > 1/1/04: 95% Employees with cost sharing:

    reduce above %s by 5%

    Medical Plan atRetirement

    n/a Miscellaneous:

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    October 11, 2011 E-33

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    MedicareEligible Rate

    n/a Actives hired < 4/1/86: Miscellaneous 80% Safety 90%

    Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100% Retirees < 65: 90% Everyone eligible for

    Medicare will elect Part Bcoverage

    SpousalCoverage atRetirement

    Actives: 60% Retirees: based on current

    elections

    Currently covered: based oncurrent elections

    Currently waived: 80% Family

    Coverage at

    Retirement

    Actives: 18% until age 65 Retirees: based on current

    elections until age 65

    Actives Misc : 10% until age 65 Safety : 20% until age 65

    Retirees: based on currentelections until age 65

    October 11, 2011 E-34

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Missing PERSGroup

    n/a Retirees missing PERS groupassumed to be Misc unlessfund designates Police or Fire

    MissingBargainingUnit

    n/a Retirees missing bargainingunit assumed to be SEIUunless fund designates Police(PAPOA) or Fire (IAFF)

    MissingDepartment

    n/a Retirees missing departmentassumed to be 80% GF,10% Elec, and 10% WWT

    Missing Fund n/a People assumed to be 80% GFfrom above assumption placedin Unknown Fund

    SurvivingSpouseParticipation

    n/a 100%

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    October 11, 2011 E-35

    ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS

    January 1, 2009 Valuation29January 1, 2011 &

    June 30, 2011 Valuations

    Spouse Age Actives Males 3 years olderthan females

    Retirees Males 3 yearsolder than females if spousebirth date not available

    Same

    Future NewParticipants

    None Closed Group Same

    October 11, 2011 E-36

    DEFINITIONS

    GASB 45AccrualAccounting

    Project future employer-provided benefit cash flows for current activeemployees and current retirees

    Discount projected cash flow to valuation date using discount rate (assumedreturn on assets used to pay benefits) and other actuarial assumptions todetermine present value of projected future benefits (PVB)

    Allocate PVB to past, current, and future periods using the actuarial costmethod

    Actuarial cost method used for this valuation is the Entry Age Normal Costmethod which determines Normal Cost as a level percentage of payroll (samemethod used by CalPERS)

    Normal Cost is amount allocated to current fiscal year Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) is amount allocated to prior service with

    employer

    Unfunded AAL (UAAL) is AAL less plan assets pre-funded in a segregatedand restricted trust

    PayGo Cost Cash subsidy is the pay-as-you-go employer benefit payments for retirees Implied subsidy is the difference between the actual cost of retiree benefits

    and retiree premiums subsidized by active employee premiums

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    October 11, 2011 E-37

    DEFINITIONS

    Present Value of Benefits

    Present Value of Benefits

    (With Plan Assets)

    Unfunded

    Actuarial Accrued

    Future

    Normal

    Costs

    Normal Cost

    Assets

    Present Value of Benefits

    (Without Plan Assets)

    Unfunded Actuarial

    Accrued Liability

    Future

    Normal

    Costs

    Normal Cost

    October 11, 2011 E-38

    DEFINITIONS

    AnnualRequiredContribution(ARC)

    Required contribution for the current period including: Normal Cost Amortization of:

    - Initial UAAL- AAL for plan, assumption, and method changes- Experience gains/losses (difference between expected and actual)- Contribution gains/losses (difference between ARC and contributions)

    ARC in excess of pay-as-you-go costs not required to be fundedNet OPEB

    Obligation

    (NOO)

    Net OPEB Obligation is the accumulated amounts expensed but not funded Net OPEB Asset if amounts funded exceed those expensed

    Annual OPEBCost (AOC)

    Expense for the current period including: ARC Interest on NOO Adjustment of NOO

    NOO adjustment prevents double counting of expense since ARCs include anamortization of prior contribution gains/losses previously expensed

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    Blue Shield 23.35% 17.95% 23.71% 9.11% 13.80% 10.06% 5.19% 2.99%

    Blue Shield NetValue 3.61% 0.98%

    Kaiser 23.33% 17.83% 16.13% 9.78% 10.73% 9.16% 7.99% 4.77%

    PERS Choice 18.88% 18.04% 5.82% 9.43% 12.50% 6.00% 0.00% 5.44%

    PERS Select -3.00% 4.80%

    PERSCare 22.05% -0.59% 13.80% 9.76% 13.09% -2.56% 0.00% 15.78%

    WHA 15.00% 34.23% 15.00% 9.80% 11.80%

    PORAC 21.25% 9.91% 1.65% 0.00% 9.97% 2.99% 6.99% 0.00%

    Blue Shield 4.00% 17.95% -10.06% -0.45% 11.33% 7.05% 0.00% -12.27%

    Blue Shield NetValue 0.00% -1.68%

    Kaiser 55.60% 31.90% -11.19% -10.13% 32.52% -5.63% 2.49% 6.50%

    Kaiser/OOS 13.21% 36.39% 8.96% -19.53% 29.43% 9.89% 6.75% 0.16%

    PERS Choice 5.08% -1.40% -8.53% 15.18% 6.12% 2.15% 0.00% 2.00%

    PERS Select 0.00% 2.00%

    PERSCare 5.92% -1.16% -13.91% 20.01% 7.05% 8.86% 0.00% 1.48%

    PORAC 21.30% 5.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -9.33% 7.03% 10.00%

    WHA 12.08% 55.09% 0.00% -1.00% 7.00%

    Medicare - All Regions

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Percent

    Change

    Bay Area

    CalPERS 2002-2012 Health Premiums - Regional

    2003-04

    Percent

    Change

    2004-05

    Percent

    Change

    Medicare PercentChange

    2009-10

    Percent

    Change

    2007-08

    Percent

    Change

    2008-09

    Percent

    Change

    2005-06

    Percent

    Change

    2006-07

    Percent

    Change

    Basic2002-03

    Percent

    Change

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    -: Attachment C: 2002-2012 PEMHCA Premiums (2180 : Retiree Medical Study

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    October 12, 2011 1

    RESULTS BY FUND

    Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)(Amounts in 000s)

    January 1, 2009 January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011

    7.75% 7.75% 7.25%

    CIP $ 1,564 $ 2,409 $ 2,572 Elec1,2 13,214 16,325 17,225 Gas1 4,589 6,227 6,668 GF3 91,488 118,946 125,564 ISF - Technology 2,226 2,079 2,257 ISF - Vehicle 1,225 1,411 1,510 Refuse 3,063 4,931 5,256 Storm Drain 494 1,478 1,565 Water1 4,673 5,189 5,539 WWC1 2,013 2,103 2,313 WWT 5,112 8,881 9,454 Total 129,661 169,979 179,923

    1Assets for Fiber Optics Fund appropriated to Elec due to no Fiber Optics employees in data

    2 AAL for UTL employees allocated to Elec, Gas, Water, and WWC in proportion to each Funds AAL3 Assets for Printing & Mailing Fund appropriated to GF due to no Printing & Mailing employees in data

    October 12, 2011 2

    RESULTS BY FUND

    Annual Required Contribution (ARC)(Amounts in 000s)

    1/1/09

    Valuation

    1/1/11

    Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation

    Annual Required Contribution 2009/10 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

    7.75% 7.75% 7.25%

    CIP $ 142 $ 220 $ 237 $ 245 Elec1,2 953 1,164 1,235 1,275 Gas1 344 390 515 532 GF3 6825 9,510 10,018 10,344 ISF - Technology 214 229 245 253 ISF - Vehicle 95 126 132 136 Refuse 245 402 420 434 Storm Drain 36 112 118 121 Water1 386 428 464 479 WWC1 169 200 223 230 WWT 377 730 771 796 Total 9,786 13,603 14,378 14,845

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    Excerpt from Finance Committee minutes of October 18, 2011.

    2. Review and Acceptance of Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study Valuation Date January 1, 2011 and Valuation Date June 30, 2011

    Director of Administrative Ser