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City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land CorridorPlanning and Economic Impact Analysis / Justification Report
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Sergio E. Pompilii & Assoc. Ltd. Date: July 20, 2011
City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land CorridorPlanning and Economic Impact Analysis / Justification Report
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Table of Contents
Part 1: Executive Summary......................................................................................1
Part 2: Planning Background
Subsection 1:
Responding to the Issue of the Altering of the Urban
Growth Boundary when there is an Oversupply ofUrban Reserve Industrial and Community Growth Lands.........................9
Subsection 2:
Analysis of the City of Londons Oversupply of Urban
Reserve Industrial and Community Growth Lands....................................11
Subsection 3:
Options the Corporation of the City of London ShouldConsider in Establishing the Highway 401 East Employment
Land Corridor and Rectifying of Urban Reserve IndustrialAnd Community Growth Lands.....................................................................14
Part 3: Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
Subsection 1:
Staging for Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor...........................18
Subsection 2:
Parameters for Determining Total Potential Developable
Square Feet within the Highway 401 East EmploymentLand Corridor
A. Developable Area.....................................................................26B. Lot Coverages..........................................................................27
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Subsection 3:
Calculating Total Potential Square Footage of theHighway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
A.
Stage 1 Lands..........................................................................28
B. Stage 2 Lands..........................................................................29C. Stage 3 Lands..........................................................................30D. Stage 4 Lands..........................................................................31E. Total Potential Developable Light or General
Industrial/Office Business Park Square FootageBased on the Above Four Phases............................................32
Subsection 4:
Total Potential Construction Costs to Develop the OverallHighway 401 East Employment Land Corridor..............................................33
Subsection 5:
Calculating Wage/Income Benefits of New ConstructionWithin the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
A. Direct Construction Costs........................................................34B. Income Benefit from the Creation of
Direct Construction Jobs..........................................................35
Subsection 6:
Comparative Analysis of Municipal Growth Rates.........................................36
Subsection 7:
Projected Municipal Employment Growth Rates
Based on Current Studies.................................................................................37
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Subsection 8:
What Londons Employment Growth Rate Should Be....................................39
Subsection 9:
Determination of Direct Permanent Jobs through
The Utilization of an Employment Growth Target
A. Direct Number of Permanent Jobs............................................40
B. Income Benefit of Creating
Direct Permanent Jobs...............................................................41
Subsection 10:
Municipal Financial Impact By Way of
Property Tax Revenue
A. Changes in Average per Acre Assessed Values.........................43B. Changes in Average Assessed Values........................................44C. Changes in Property Tax Revenue.............................................45
Subsection 11:
Assessing Spin-Off Effects Originating
From the Highway 401 East Employment Corridor...........................................46
Subsection 12:
Potential Population Growth Based
On New Employment Within the
Highway 401 East Industrial Corridor................................................................48
Subsection 13:
Comparative Analysis of
Londons Real GDP Figures...............................................................................49
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Subsection 14:
Missed Opportunities to Facilitate
The Recovery of Londons Economy................................................................50
Subsection 15:
Economic Analysis of London and
Identification of Opportunities to
Improve In Key Sectors.....................................................................................52
Subsection 16:
Recommended Options to Attract Industry
Within the Highway 401 East Industrial Corridor.............................................60
Part 4: Conclusion..........................................................................................................63
Part 5: Figures................................................................................................................73
Part 6: References..........................................................................................................92
Part 7: Bibliography.......................................................................................................100
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Part 1:
Executive Summary
This study will examine the economic impact of opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for
employment growth, note Figure 1 (p. 73). The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
will be examined in detail, as a result of its locational attributes, overall timing of development
and accessibility to strategic markets. Our firm has determined that the potential Highway 402
East Employment Land Corridor between the Highway 401/402 junction and Highway 4 will be
a longer term employment land development area because of its function as a secondary 400-
series freeway to Highway 401. Based on this assessment, it will begin to emerge after a
substantive portion of the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor has undergone
development. Presently, there is ample designated employment land within the Urban Growth
Boundary (UGB), north of Dingman Drive, and north and south of Exeter Road between
Wonderland Road and the Highway 401/402 interchange for the Southwest Area of London. In
addition, the Wonderland Road Corridor should be viewed as a community growth gateway for
the Southwest Area of London because it connects to Highway 402 and soon Highway 401.
As a result, this study recognizes that the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor has
both a more urgent need and practicality for employment growth than the Highway 402 EastEmployment Land Corridor. The principal reasons for this are as follows:
1. Londons traditional 400-series highway employment corridor is Highway 401 fromWellington Road to Forest City Industrial Park.
2. Veterans Memorial Parkway (VMP) has been recognized as an in-city expressway thatextends from Skyway Industrial Park, south to Innovation Park and Highway 401. The
Highway 401/VMP interchange will now be revamped to a full cloverleaf.
3. The VMP will now be extended to Wilton Grove Road, in order for the full interchangeat Highway 401 to take effect and open up additional lands for employment growth.
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4. Highway 401 is by far the most travelled 400-series highway within the City of Londonbecause of its direct connection to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and
overall Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), and both the Northeastern and Midwestern
United States (U.S.).
5. Lands fronting along Highway 401, east of Highbury Avenue, have already undergoneemployment growth by way of Forest City, Highbury, and Innovation Parks. In addition,
through the introduction of Office Business Park uses within this corridor, opportunities
for other forms of employment could emerge, in tandem with the traditional
manufacturing and logistics/warehousing uses (i.e. corporate headquarters, research and
development, information and communication technology, aerospace, and
biomedical/pharmaceutical). This will further strengthen and broaden Londons
economic diversity and provide increased employment within other sectors of the local
and regional economies, as will be further detailed within this analysis.
6. The Corporation of the City of London is presently recognizing the need and practicalityof opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for employment growth, specifically from
Highbury Avenue, east to the City limits.
Our firms findings can be summarized as follows:
1. Approximately 70% of the current oversupply of vacant and underutilized industriallands within the UGB, both designated and set aside for future industrial growth, are
unserviced and/or years away from development. This is a result of the fact that the
Vision 96 Process did not fully recognize the potential of the Highway 401 East
Corridor and London did not experience the population and employment growth
anticipated at that time, which would have coincided with historical trends. As aresult, Londons future has not been sufficiently addressed since that Process and this
trend could continue for the next 20 years. As a result, it is difficult to sustain or
increase the size of a municipalitys labour force if the appropriate measures are not
taken to attract employment and grow the local population.
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2. The Corporation of the City of London should consider the following options torectify the oversupply of both Urban Reserve (UR) Industrial and Community
Growth lands:
a) A Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity to immediately include Stage 1 and 2lands within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor, currently outside
of the UGB, note Figure 6. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
(MMAH) could direct the Corporation of the City of London to include these
parcels as part of the UGB.
Stage 3 and 4 lands and the remnant parcel for future community growth, north of
Bradley Avenue, would not be subject to the Emergent Opportunity, as they are
not as strategic at this time, in terms of locational attributes and timing of
development, note Figure 6. Thus, they would remain outside of the UGB for
further consideration through the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review
Process.
b) Rectify the missed opportunity during the Vision 96 Process and the twosubsequent 5-Year Official Plan Reviews since then by placing all existing UR -
Industrial Growth lands into a four stage development timeline through the 2011
Official Plan Review Process.
Where appropriate, the re-designation of inadequate UR Industrial Growth lands
to UR Community Growth should be considered within the 2011 Official Plan
Review Process if their site specific characteristics permit. It could prepare these
land tracts for future residential, commercial, institutional and recreational uses,
once serviceable. In addition, these lands would support the amount of associated
population growth generated from the Highway 401 East Employment Land
Corridor.
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3. Based on a developable area of 772.17 hectares (1,908.07 acres), up to approximately28.37 million square feet of space could be developed within the Highway 401 East
Employment Land Corridor. An associated 17,520 to 20,040 construction jobs could
be created with an income benefit of up to $727.63 million. Through the utilization of
a 30 to 40-job per hectare target, between 23,165 and 30,887 direct permanent jobs
related to industrial and office business park uses could also be created. The income
benefit of creating the above direct permanent jobs would amount up to $2.51 billion.
4. The assessed value of lands within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridorpotentially increasing up to $1,396,043,232 once they are designated, zoned and
developed.
5. Property tax revenue potentially increasing up to $66,351,240 per annum, once landswithin the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor are designated, zoned and
developed.
6. If 23,165 to 30,887 direct jobs, potential originating from the Highway 401 EastEmployment Land Corridor were to be added to the labour force and 55% of
Londons population would continue to be part of the labour force, the municipalitys
population could increase by 42,118 to 56,158.
7. While London did increase infrastructural spending from 2009 to date, which assistedin increasing construction output, large-scale projects that could have been geared
towards providing the municipality long-term economic stability and growth were not
pursued. Based on the analysis of other centres (i.e. the Kitchener CMAs light rail
project, the Windsor CMAs Windsor-Essex Parkway, and the Hamilton CMAs Red
Hill Valley Parkway), these funds and the pursuit of more substantive upper level
governmental infrastructure monies could have been utilized to complete major road
works, bridges and municipal servicing that would have had long-term job creation
and economic stimulating effects, providing city-wide benefits. The Highway 401
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East Employment Land Corridor could serve a similar function to the two above
referenced expressway projects, enabling London to experience the aforementioned
direct benefits.
8. London should improve in the following sectors:
a) Economy, within which GDP per capita and growth have been middling since2006;
b) Education and society, where London continues to lose its proportion of the 25 to34 age group, which enables municipalities to be better positioned for the future,
despite Londons internationally recognized post-secondary institutions;
c) Innovation, where London has not been adept in wealth creation; and
d) Housing, where the number of starts since 2006 has reflected the municipalitysmiddling population growth and inability to attract large-scale employment.
9. The 15,000 manufacturing jobs lost since 2006 and 10,000 jobs shed in all sectorswithin the past 12 months have not been fully recovered. In addition, more jobs are at
risk, most notably from the Talbotville Ford Assembly Plant. London should have
been more proactive in retaining and attracting industry during this period.
10.London should recognize the fact that historically, its economic base has always beencontingent on its diversity. Londons economy was reasonably well-balanced, with an
appropriate mix of manufacturing and service industries. Because of this fact,
Londons cyclical swings were less violent than those of centres, dominated by a
single major company or industry. Londons diverse economy included insurance,
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finance, education, health care, manufacturing and service industries, along with
being a vibrant regional city.
Namely Kitchener and Hamilton are now outperforming London in several key
economic sectors and are increasingly working towards diversifying their economies.
In addition, London no longer has a dominant financial and insurance base. If London
does not address the sectors of its economy that are currently underperforming and
work towards becoming more innovative in opening up employment lands within the
Highway 401 East Corridor, its economic diversity will be subject to further decline.
11.London should embrace the fact that it is becoming increasingly linked to the TorontoCMA and the overall GGH from an economic standpoint and take advantage of the
attributes it has and can obtain to compete against municipalities of similar size.
12.London has an opportunity to capture its share of the need for industry to radiate outof the Toronto CMA. By doing so, it can compete against other centres in both
Southern and Southwestern Ontario. Opening the Highway 401 East Employment
Land Corridor would respond to the need of industrial users to look to locate along
400-series highways due to increased exposure and time-distance considerations.
13.London has an opportunity to expand its supply of Office Business Park land, whichwould result in the emergence of other forms of employment, in addition to the
traditional manufacturing and logistics/warehousing uses (i.e. corporate headquarters,
research and development, information and communication technology, aerospace,
and biomedical/pharmaceutical).
14.London should allow the private sector to play a larger role in employment growth, asbusiness investment confidence in non-residential development is projected to
increase within Ontario and public sector spending by all levels of government will
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f) Continue to exempt the private sector from development charges for industrialuses. However, lessen or lift the current surcharges the private sector is required
to pay for land exposed to Highway 401 and bear the cost of servicing
connections from the main to the property lines.
g) Provide the private sector and manufacturers tax credits, in a similar fashion to theOntario government.
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Part 2: Planning Background
Subsection 1:
Responding to the Issue of Altering theUrban Growth Boundary when there is
An Oversupply of Urban Reserve -
Industrial and Community Growth Lands
The cost of urban expansion led to legislated compact communities in Ontario during the mid
1990s because it affected all stakeholders within and around an urban area, such as home and
business owners, the agricultural sector, and both rural and urban municipal governments. As a
result, provincial, regional, and local governments realized that they needed to act by legislating
measures against urban expansion.
The most effective tool to legislate compact communities was to establish Urban Growth
Boundaries (UGBs) through Provincial Policy Statements (PPS), spearheaded through the Smart
Growth movement across Canada, where all forms of urban growth would occur within defined
areas over 15 to 20-year planning periods. During this timeframe, expansions to the UGB would
only be considered if they represented immediate emergent opportunities outside of 5-Year
Official Plan Reviews that could not be accommodated within defined areas. As a result, lands
outside of the UGB have been effectively excluded from development, along with other
measures through the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH).
Londons UGB was initiated through the Vision 96 / OPA No. 88 Comprehensive Official Plan
Review Process, which primarily oversaw the designation of lands that were annexed through
TheLondon-Middlesex Act, 1992(Bill 75). The UGB has seen limited expansion since the
approval of Official Plan Amendment (OPA) No. 88 in 1999 (i.e. O.R.E. and Forest City
Industrial Parks by way of the 2001 Official Plan Review). As a result, to be fixated on the fact
that Londons original UGB must be maintained at all costs to prevent urban expansion is largely
unjustified in this current economic climate. Community growth lands (i.e. residential,
commercial, and institutional uses) have traditionally been seen as requiring compact urban form
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and the need for infill and intensification because they constitute the largest component in the
development of urban areas.
On the other hand, employment lands are the engine of a local economy and should be treated
differently because of the nature of development that they bring (i.e. smaller in scale in relation
to community growth lands and only occurring in strategic areas of a municipality, as will be
further detailed in this analysis). In Londons case, the lack of full recognition of Highway 401,
as a driver for economic growth, should be addressed because of its uniqueness and strategic
location within the municipal boundary. This is especially the case at this time and in the future,
given Londons current economic state. It is now time that lands abutting and in close proximity
to the UGB be accepted as strategic and cost-effective for employment growth. There should be
the recognition of the fact that UGBs are imperfect and subject to strategic adjustments, most
notably the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor, which will provide city-wide
economic benefits and allow London to properly utilize the most significant trade corridor in
Ontario.
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Subsection 2:
Analysis of the City of Londons
Oversupply of Urban Reserve
Industrial and Community Growth Lands
The City of Londons May 28, 2007 Land Needs Study determined that there was an oversupply
of Urban Reserve (UR) Industrial and Community Growth lands within the UGB, which has
prevented any alteration to Londons UGB1. From an industrial perspective, the report concluded
that there was a sufficient supply of vacant and underutilized land for industrial growth for a 20-
year period, within intensified or disbursed growth scenarios2, as noted in Figure 2 (p. 74).
However, approximately 70% of the oversupply of vacant and underutilized industrial lands (i.e.
1,383 hectares), both designated and set aside for future industrial growth, are unserviced and/or
years away from development, as can be noted in Figure 3 (p. 75).
The following summary points from the City of Londons May 28, 2007 Land Needs Study
presentation provide the rationale behind the Vision 96 estimates being high and the oversupply
of UR- Community and Industrial Growth lands within the UGB:
a) Forecasts were based on 1991 Census data and were consistent with provincialforecasts at the time.
b) A 25% contingency factor was added to the forecast.
c) The Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) did not accept updated forecasts based on 1996Census data.
d)
In their final decision, the OMB added 35% more land (40% more residentialland) to the Urban Growth Area3.
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It can be argued that the above cannot be fully utilized as the cause for the oversupply of UR
Industrial and Community Growth lands. History demonstrates that Londons average annual
population growth rate from 1971 to 1991 of approximately 1.8%4 exceeded the 1.6% annual
population growth projections for the 1996 to 2016 period set in 1993 (i.e. from 326,000 to
432,000 people)5. More specifically, the average annual population growth rate of 1.5% for the
1991 to 1996 period6 mirrored the projection for 1996 to 2016. Employment growth proved to be
more favourable than population growth between 1971 and 1996, with an average annual
employment growth rate of 2.4%7891011. Thus, it is difficult to argue that the contingency factor
and additional land added to the UGB by the OMB was the primary cause for the oversupply of
UR Community and Industrial Growth lands. History provided the expectation of London to
continue the course of favourable population and employment growth as stipulated above.
However, subsequent to the Vision 96 Process, Londons actual population only increased from
326,000 in 1996 to 352,000 in 200612 and is forecasted at 368,400 for 2011 and 385,300 in
201613; thus it is expected to grow at annual rate of only 0.9% over this 15-year period. In
addition, there were 30,563 less people realized by 2006 than the Vision 96 target14. This trend
is expected to continue with an average annual projected population growth rate of 0.92% for the
2011 to 2026 period15. As a result, London is currently 8 years behind the projected Vision 96
target for 2011 and will be 10 years behind the 2016 target. While average annual employment
growth did sustain a rate of approximately 1.5% from 1996 to 2006, with the latter 5 years
experiencing the most significant gain of 1.8% annually161718, it is forecasted to decrease to an
average of 0.7% per annum from 2006 to 203119.
The above demonstrates that Londons future has not been sufficiently addressed and that it is
difficult to sustain or increase the size of a municipalitys labour force if the appropriate
measures are not taken to grow the local population and retain the 25 to 34-years of age
demographic group, as will be further discussed in Part 3, Subsection 15 (p. 52-53) of this
analysis.
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The Vision 96 Process did not identify strategic lands for industrial growth. Rather, lands were
designated UR Industrial Growth within the UGB that were located away from 400-series
highways and faced long-term development timelines due to the lack of short-term servicing. In
addition, many properties that were indentified for future industrial development were better
suited for community growth. Lands within the UGB for both future industrial and community
growth could have been classified in a staged process based on serviceability, as noted in the
following:
a) Stage 1 lands, which are immediately serviceable;
b) Stage 2 lands with possible 1 to 5-year servicing timelines;
c) Stage 3 lands with possible 5 to 20-year servicing timelines; and
d) Stage 4 lands with possible 20 plus year servicing timelines.
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Subsection 3:
Options the Corporation of the City of London
Should Consider in Establishing the Highway
401 East Employment Land Corridor andRectifying the Oversupply of Urban Reserve
Industrial and Community Growth Lands
Option 1: Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity for strategic lands within the Highway
401 East Employment Land Corridor
In terms of lands within the Highway 401 East Corridor from the Highbury Avenue, east to the
City limits, which are currently outside of the UGB, the MMAH could issue a Ministerial Order
directing the Corporation of the City of London to include these parcels as part of the UGB. This
is a result of the fact that these lands comprise an emergent opportunity for future employment
growth within the City of London. This was similarly the case with the lands for the Toyota
Motor Manufacturing Canada (TMMC) Woodstock plant, which were annexed from the
Township of Blandford-Blenheim into the City of Woodstock, as a result of a Provincial Order
from the MMAH to the County of Oxford.
Approximately 1,214 hectares (3,000 acres) of land were annexed from the Township of
Blandford-Blenheim to the west (i.e. the traditional municipal boundary of Woodstock) and to
the south (i.e. the Dundas Street/Highway 2 corridor), note Figure 4 (p. 76). This was a result of
accommodating TMMCs 405 hectare (1,000 acre) site and future employment lands in East
Woodstock. In addition, the Township of East-Zorra Tavistock and the City of Woodstock
negotiated a boundary adjustment to provide the latter with an increased supply of future
employment and residential lands. As part of this agreement, the City of Woodstock would
support and make every effort to provide a trunk sanitary sewer outlet for a connection from
Innerkip in the vicinity of the intersection of County Road 4 and County Road 17 within 5 years
of the date of annexation20.
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The MMAH assumed the responsibility of re-designating the TMMC lands to primarily
Traditional Industrial. The Minister of MMAH issued an Order to the County of Oxford to
rezone 28 properties that were acquired as part of the TMMC lands to Industrial. This
Ministerial Order did not require the County of Oxford to undergo Site Plan Control of the
TMMC plant, prior to the commencement of its construction. Both the Province of Ontario and
the County of Oxford did not require TMMC to submit a background study, justifying their need
to locate a manufacturing plant in Woodstock and outlining how their chosen location would
function from a planning perspective. This was utilized as tool to lure large-scale private sector
investment to a county in need of a long-term economic generator. Given this example, the City
of London can pursue its own economic initiative that will lure large-scale private sector
investment through securing a Ministerial Order for its Highway 401 East Employment Land
Corridor.
Based on the direction achieved to revamp the VMP/Highway 401 interchange and extend the
VMP south to Wilton Grove Road, two existing bookends or anchors will soon be completed
south of Highway 401, as can be noted in Figure 5 (p. 77). As a result, the need exists to create
Highway 401 employment land opportunities on both sides of this corridor through a Ministerial
Order/Emergent Opportunity. The scope of Londons Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity
would include Stage 1 and 2 lands, comprising a developable land area of 376.56 hectares
(931.39 acres) within an expanded UGB. They are located along the south side of Highway 401,
as depicted in Figure 6 (p. 78). The Stage 1 lands would be given a Light Industrial designation
and zoning to develop immediately, based on the fact that they possess full municipal services
along their frontage and have undergone approximately 80 to 85% of the required background
studies through the former Sun Life Financial initiative. This would fulfill the OMB compromise
of 2002 to remove the appeal during the Official Plan Amendment process to approve O.R.E.
and Forest City Industrial Parks, which stipulated that the Stage 1 lands, comprising the former
Sun Life Financial initiative, would be the first properties to be considered for UGB inclusion
within the next 5-Year Official Plan Review Process. Concurrent to the Stage 1 lands being
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immediately included within the UGB, the Stage 2 lands would receive UR Industrial Growth
designations. These lands would then be subject to an area plan
process to determine the nature, scope and timing of development. The Stage 3 and 4 lands andremnant parcel for future community growth, north of Bradley Avenue, as noted in Figure 6 (p.
78), would not be subject to the Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity at this time. Thus, they
should remain outside of the UGB for further consideration though the Comprehensive 2016
Official Plan Review Process. However, as will be discussed in Part 3, Subsection 1 (p. 24-25)
of the report, the Stage 4 lands, which comprise a developable land area of 212.74 hectares
(525.60 acres), could also be part of the Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity based on
servicing considerations.
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Part 3: Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
Subsection 1:
Staging for the Highway 401
East Employment Land Corridor
Stage 1: Properties Considered for the Former Sun Life Financial Initiative, note Figure 6
(in blue).
Developable Land Area:
40.06 hectares (99 acres)
Rationale:
Readily available water and sanitary services along the full Wilton Grove Road frontage.
Approximately 80-85% of the required approvals have already been achieved, in terms of
justification for UGB inclusion from both planning and engineering perspectives.
Immediately abuts the UGB and directly south of Forest City Industrial Park, which is
approximately 85% developed.
Work undertaken within the former Sun Life Financial initiative has already determined
that the subject properties overall developable land area of 99 acres is significant enough
to attract all forms of employment land development.
What is required for development?
Inclusion within the UGB, in order to achieve an UR Industrial Growth designation that
would immediately remove the impediments a private sector development initiative
traditionally faces.
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How can this be achieved?
The introduction of a Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity, which would expedite the
UGB inclusion process and achieve a wide-ranging Light Industrial designation andzoning, prior to the commencement of a private sector development initiative.
Based on this fact, a private sector development initiative would only entail industrial
plan of subdivision and building permit approvals, in order for the subject properties to
develop.
Timing of Development:
Once the above referenced land use approvals are achieved (i.e. UGB inclusion and wide-
ranging Light Industrial designation and zoning), a private sector development initiative
can immediately proceed within the subject properties, once the above preconditions are
completed.
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Stage 2: Lands along the south side of Highway 401 (east of Cheese Factory Road to the
City limits) and the south side of Wilton Grove Road from Hubrey Road to
Commerce Road), note Figure 6 (in green).
Developable Land Area:
336.50 hectares (832.39 acres)
Rationale:
Based on the fact that the Corporation of the City of London will soon extend the VMP,
south to Wilton Grove Road, an easterly bookend will be in place, south of Highway 401.
The westerly bookend is presently in place through O.R.E.s Highbury Business Park and
the Corporation of the City of Londons Forest City Industrial Park. As a result, lands
that front the south side of Highway 401 between Cheese Factory Road and the proposed
VMP extension would connect these two industrial bookends.
Once the Stage 1 lands are in place, a replicate of the bookend concept for lands south of
Wilton Grove Road on either side of Highbury Avenue that are also recommended as
Stage 2, will be created, as noted in Figure 6 (in green).
What is required for development?
UGB inclusion and ultimately an area plan process, which would determine future land
uses and servicing through background studies and a public approval process.
How can this be achieved?
The introduction of a Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity, which would complete
the UGB inclusion of these lands.
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Timing of Development:
Development timing is further behind the Stage 1 lands because there has been no prior
comprehensive planning and engineering work completed.
Qualifier:
Through our firms analysis of how Stage 1 and 2 lands can be achieved, there is a
recognizable opportunity that both of these stages can be brought in unison within the
UGB through a single comprehensive Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity option.
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Stage 3: Lands between Highway 401 and the south side of Bradley Avenue from Jackson
Road to the westerly limits of Innovation Park (Old Victoria Road), note Figure 6
(in orange).
Developable Land Area:
182.87 hectares (451.86 acres)
Rationale:
The UGB presently abuts both the western and eastern boundaries of the subject land
area.
This land area fills in the remaining future employment lands within the Highway 401
East Employment Land Corridor from Jackson Road to the southerly end of Innovation
Park (i.e. similar to the aforementioned bookend analogy).
It should be noted that the Stage 3 lands are not within the same development window as
the Stage 2 lands, primarily due to the inherent encumbrances this area has, based on the
location of the Ontario Hydro corridor along their full Highway 401 frontage and theslope of the land towards the southwest and south, away from the VMP servicing
corridor.
In addition, it would provide the potential to include lands south of Commissioners Road,
west of Innovation Park and north of Bradley Avenue within the UGB as UR
Community Growth. Moreover, this land area presently abuts the existing UGB, along
its eastern, northern and western boundaries.
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What is required for development?
Future municipal servicing can be achieved through further review of the Innovation
Park/Hamilton Road trunk connection for the north and northeasterly portions of thesubject land area that could be considered for possible UR Community Growth and the
remaining potential UR Community and Industrial Growth lands that slope to the
southwest could be considered for servicing and development, subsequent to the
completion of Stage 2 lands, south of Highway 401.
How can this be achieved?
The land area south of Bradley Avenue could be included within the Comprehensive
2016 Official Plan Review Process, in order to achieve a UR Industrial Growth
designation.
It should be noted that the consideration of the aforementioned potential UR
Community Growth lands may or may not be part of the final direction taken from the
2016 Comprehensive Official Plan Review Process.
Timing of Development:
The Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review Process could include the Stage 3 lands
within the UGB and designate them UR Industrial Growth.
In addition, lands north of Bradley Avenue and west of Old Victoria Road could be
included within the UGB and designated UR Community Growth through this same
process.
The above would trigger an area plan process(es) for these lands.
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Stage 4: Lands south of Wilton Grove Road between the Stage 1 lands and easterly City
limits, note Figure 6 (in red).
Developable Land Area:
212.74 hectares (525.60 acres)
Rationale:
Once Stage 1 and 2 lands are included within the UGB and the required servicing and
development has taken place and a need is established, this subject land area would
complete the full development of Wilton Grove Road from Hubrey Road to the easterly
City limits.
This land area is designated Stage 4 primarily due to the fact that it does not possess the
same locational attributes as the Stage 3 lands, in terms of fronting along Highway 401,
and positioned closer to the established urban fabric. Thus, this renders the lands south of
Wilton Grove Road as the final stage of employment land development within the
Highway 401 East Corridor.
What is required for development?
Completion of the above three preconditions (i.e. establishment of servicing,
development occurring within Stages 1, 2 and 3, and the need to extend the UGB along
the south side of Wilton Grove Road, in order to accommodate future employment
growth.
How can this be achieved?
The Stage 4 lands would have to await the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review
Process.
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Qualifier:
If a pumping station is situated at the extreme southwestern quadrant of the subject land
area (in close proximity to the easterly flankage of the Stage 1 lands) and there is a need
for more immediate employment lands, the Stage 4 lands could be included within the
Stage 2 UGB timeline and development requirements.
Timing of Development:
The Stage 4 lands would have to await the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review
Process. However, as noted above, timing of development could be sooner.
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Subsection 2:
Parameters for Determining Total
Potential Developable Square Feet within
The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
A. Developable Area:The total land area of the potential Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is
approximately 983.07 hectares (2,429.13 acres). However, in order to realistically assess
the suitability of this overall land area for development, environmental features and/or
hazards were taken into account.
Schedule B-1 to the City of Londons Official Plan was utilized to delineate the natural
heritage features within the subject corridor (i.e. ESAs, Potential ESAs, Significant
Woodlots, Woodlands, Significant Corridors, Provincially and Locally Significant
Wetlands, and Maximum Hazard Lines), note Figure 7 (p. 79).
Schedule B-2 to the City of Londons Official Plan was utilized to delineate natural
resources and hazards within the subject corridor, note Figure 8 (p.80).
By taking the above Official Plan Schedules into consideration, approximately 210.90
hectares (521.14 acres) were omitted from the total area of the subject corridor; thus
resulting in a total developable area of approximately 772.17 hectares (1,908.07 acres).
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B. Lot Coverages:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Properties:
Subdivisions: 33% lot coverage
Site Specific Development: 22 to 56% lot coverage
Justification:
The site plan for the former Sun Life Financial development proposal was utilized
as a template for industrial and/or office business park development with internal
roads in determing lot coverages.
Lot coverages of developed properties within Highbury (O.R.E.), Forest City,
Innovation and Skyway Industrial Parks and along the VMP were utilized to
determine the above range for site specific industrial and/or office business park
development, along public roads; thus, mirroring the existing market situation.
The lot coverage provisions within Zoning By-law Z.-1 for General and Heavy
Industrial uses proved to be an unrealistic measure in determining potential
developable areas for each phase within the Highway 401 East Employment Land
Corridor. In reality, it is rare to see industrial and/or office business park
development take up the maximum lot coverage provisions within the Zoning By-
law.
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Subsection 3:
Calculating Total Potential Square
Footage of the Highway 401 East
Employment Land Corridor
The calculation for each stage was arrived at by converting the lot coverage of properties (in
hectares) into square feet; thus reflecting the size of future buildings within each stage of
development.
It should be noted that Figure 9 (p. 81) delineates potential industrial and/or office business park
subdivisions and site specific parcels within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor,
which could be undertaken by both the private and public sectors.
A. Stage 1 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:
Developable Land Area: 40.06 hectares (99 acres)
Lot Coverage: 33%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 1,435,389 SF
Total Potential Developable Square
Footage of Stage 1 Light or General
Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 1,435,389 SF
Note: Based on the previous Sun Life Financial initiative and the cumulative size of the
properties in question, the Stage 1 lands are anticipated to be developed as a
private sector Light Industrial subdivision.
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B. Stage 2 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:
Developable Land Area: 327 hectares (808.92 acres)
Lot Coverage: 33%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 11,628,858 SF
Site Specific Light or General Industrial/Official Business Park Parcels:
Developable Land Area: 9.5 hectares (23.47 acres)
Lot Coverage: 22%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 224,933 SF
Lot Coverage: 56%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 572,557 SF
Total Potential Developable SquareFootage of Stage 2 Light or General
Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 11,853,791 to 12,201,415 SF
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C. Stage 3 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:
Developable Land Area: 155.22 hectares (383.54 acres)
Lot Coverage: 33%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 5,513,735 SF
Site Specific Light or General Industrial/Official Business Park Parcels:
Developable Land Area: 27.65 hectares (68.32 acres)
Lot Coverage: 22%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 654,790 SF
Lot Coverage: 56%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 1,666,684 SF
Total Potential Developable Square
Footage of Stage 3 Light Industrial orGeneral Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 6,168,525 to 7,180,419 SF
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D. Stage 4 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:
Developable Land Area: 212.74 hectares (525.60 acres)
Lot Coverage: 33%
Potential Developable Square Footage: 7,555,898 SF
Total Potential Developable Square
Footage of Stage 4 Light or General
Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 7,555,898 SF
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E. Total Potential Developable Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park SquareFootage Based on the Above Four Phases:
Subdivisions: 26,133,880 SF
Site Specific Parcels: 879,723 to 2,239,241 SF
Grand Total: 27,013,603 to 28,373,121 SF
Based on the above, a range of27,013,603 SF to 28,373,121 total potential developable
square feet for all forms of industrial and/or office business park uses will be utilized as a
parameter for this analysis.
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Subsection 4:
Total Potential Direct Construction Costs to Develop the
Overall Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
2011 per Square Foot Cost for 16 ft to
30 ft Clear Height Buildings Assuming
Londons Construction Costs are
$9.00 per Square Foot Less than Torontos: $53.90 - $59.00/SF2122
Total Potential
Developable Square Footage: 27,013,603 SF to 28,373,121 SF
Grand Total: $1.46 Billion to $1.67 Billion (In
Direct Construction Costs)
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Subsection 5:
Calculating Direct Wage/Income Benefits
Of New Construction within the Highway
401 East Employment Land Corridor
A. Direct Construction Costs:
Jobs per $1 Billion in Construction: 12,00023
Direct Construction Costs: $1.46 Billion to $1.67 Billion
Note: Private industry, not the Corporation
of the City of London, would have to
bear the cost of constructing new
buildings within the Highway 401
East Employment Land Corridor.
The only situation where
construction costs could arise for the
Corporation of the City of London is
public-private partnerships.
Number of Full Time Equivalent
Construction Jobs Created: 17,520 to 20,040
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B. Income Benefit from the Creation of Direct Construction Jobs:Direct Construction Jobs Created
Over the Long-Term: 17,520 to 20,040
Average Annual Income for
Construction Trades (2005): $36,30924
Income Benefit from New
Direct Construction Jobs: $636.13 Million to $727.63 Million
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Subsection 6:
Comparative Analysis of
Municipal Growth Rates
Londons Current Annual
Projected Growth Rate: 1% as per the March 22, 2011 Committee of the
Whole Growth Planning, Management and Finance
Orientation Presentation25
Region of Waterloos Annual
Growth Rate (15-Year
Average from 1995 to 2010): 1.8%, as per the Region of Waterloos 2010 Year-
End Population and Household Estimates26
City of Guelphs Approximate Annual
Growth Rate from 1993 to 2011: 2%, as per the City of Guelphs 2004 Population
Growth Fact Sheet27
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Subsection 7:
Projected Municipal Employment
Growth Rates Based on Current Studies
City of Londons Anticipated Employment
Growth Rate for 2006 to 2031: 17 jobs per hectare, based on the following:
a) 33,300 jobs in employment growth from 2006 to2031, as per the March 22, 2011 Committee of
the Whole Growth Planning, Management and
Finance Orientation Presentation28;
b) 1,978 hectares in available employment land(serviced and unserviced) for 20+ years, as per
the City of Londons 2006 Official Plan Review
Land Needs Background Study29.
City of GuelphsEmployment Growth Rate: 35 jobs per hectare targeted for future
industrial/business park areas based on historical
trends, as per their 2009 Local Growth Management
Strategy Implications Study30.
Region of Waterloos Target for
Employment Growth within the
City of Kitcheners Southwest Area,
Based on an Employment Land
Area of 440 Hectares: 40 jobs per hectare, as per their 2009 Regional
Transportation Master Plan: Implications of
Southwest Kitchener Development Beyond
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Countryside Line. Most of this area will comprise
Office Business Park uses and the balance will be
Light Industrial31.
Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)s
Employment Growth Target
For 2006 to 2031: 50 jobs per hectare, as per their 2006 Growth Plan
for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This high
employment density target is primarily a result of
the intensification policies contained within the
Growth Plan32.
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Subsection 8:
What Londons Employment
Growth Rate Should Be
The Corporation of the City of London should be committed to its municipality growing at a rate
of 2 to 2.5% per annum.
The Corporation should view the City of London as the leading regional centre, west of the
Kitchener CMA.
The Corporation of the City of London should target an employment growth rate of 30 to 40 jobsper hectare for an overall employment land strategy over the long-term.
London growing at a rate of 2 to 2.5% per annum will assist in ensuring that at least 30 jobs per
hectare are being created over the long-term.
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Subsection 9:
Determination of Direct Permanent
Jobs through the Utilization of
An Employment Growth Target
A. Direct Number of Permanent JobsThe approximate direct number of permanent jobs that could be created based on the
previously described employment growth rate target of30 to 40 jobs per hectare, range
between 23,165 and 30,887 for the aforementioned 772.17 hectare land area. This
employment growth rate target would reflect a potential mix of Light Industrial development
(comprising lower densities) and Office Business Park uses (comprising higher densities). In
order for the City of London realize such employment per hectare targets, the Highway 401
East Employment Land Corridor should be intensified, as much as possible, as it will prove
to be the most strategic gateway for attracting new non-residential assessment. It will
represent smart growth and compact urban form from an employment land standpoint and
there will always be a market for such uses, as 48% of all Canadian exports33 and the $2
billion in business that passes along Highway 40134 are not fixed figures and will continue to
rise.
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B. Income Benefit of CreatingDirect Permanent Jobs:
Total Potential Direct JobsCreated Over the Long-Term: 23,165 to 30,887
Average Employment Income Range for a Select List
of Workers Outlined Below, which could Encompass
Uses (i.e. Manufacturing, Logistics, Processing, Research
and Development, Information and Communication
Technology, and Biomedical/Pharmaceutical) within
Future Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
Industrial and Office Business Park Subdivisions: $30,630 to $81,238 (2005)35
Aerospace Engineers
Chemical Engineers
Computer Engineers
Industrial & Manufacturing
Engineers
Interactive Media Developers
Medical Laboratory
Technicians
Professional Engineers
Recording, Scheduling &
Distribution Workers
Shippers and Receivers
Software Engineers &
Designers
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Traditional
Manufacturing/Processing
Workers
Income Benefit Range from New Direct Jobs: $709.54 Million to
$2.51 Billion
Income Benefit Based on the
Midpoint of the Earnings ($55,934): $1.3 Billion to $1.73 Billion
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Subsection 10:
Municipal Financial Impact
By Way of Property Tax Revenue
The assessed value of existing vacant/agricultural properties within the Highway 401 East
Employment Land Corridor and both vacant and developed industrial properties within Highbury
(O.R.E.), Forest City, Innovation and Skyway Industrial Parks were utilized to derive per acre
assessed values in depicting the change in property tax revenue for the City of London by
opening up and allowing the ultimate development of the subject corridor.
A. Changes in Average Per Acre Assessed Values36Average per Acre Assessed
Value of Lands Designed and
Zoned Agricultural: $3,470 to $9,446 per Acre
Average per Acre Assessed
Value of Lands Designated and
Zoned Light, General or Heavy
Industrial (Not Developed): $34,750 to $96,154 per Acre
Average per Acre Assessed
Value of Lands Designated and
Zoned Light, General or Heavy
Industrial (Developed): $382,050 to $731,652 per Acre
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B. Changes in Average Assessed Values
Based on a total developable land area of 1,908.07 acres (772.17 hectares) and an average
assessed per acre range of $3,470 to $9,446, the total average assessed value of the existing
agricultural Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:
$6,621,003 to $18,023,629
Based on a total developable land area of 1,908.07 acres (772.17 hectares) and an average
assessed per acre range of $34,750 to $96,154, the total average assessed value of a future
designated, zoned, but undeveloped Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as
follows:
$66,305,432 to $183,468,563
Based on a total developable land area of 1,908.07 acres (772.17 hectares) and an average
assessed per acre range of $382,050 to $731,652, the total average assessed value of a future
designated, zoned, and developed Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as
follows:
$728,978,143 to $1,396,043,232
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C. Changes in Property Tax Revenue37
Based on a municipal property tax rate of 0.367567% (2010) for farmland, excluding transit,
and a total average assessed value of $6,621,003 to $18,023,629, the average property tax
revenue from the existing agricultural Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as
follows:
$24,337 to $66,249 per annum
Based on a municipal property tax rate of 3.089325% (2010) for industrial taxable vacant
and/or excess land (new construction), including transit and a total average assessed value
of $66,305,432 to $183,468,563, the average property tax revenue from a future designated,
zoned, but undeveloped Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:
$2,048,390 to $5,667,940 per annum
Based on a municipal property tax rate of 4.752807% (2010) for industrial taxable (new
construction), including transit and a total average assessed value of $728,978,143 to
$1,396,043,232, the average property tax revenue from a future designated, zoned, and
developed Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:
$34,646,924 to $66,351,240 per
annum without factoring in rebates
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Subsection 11:
Assessing Spin-Off Effects Originating
From the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
As noted above, opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for employment growth would result
in further jobs, increased income, assessment, and property tax revenue for the City of London.
With new firms being recruited and increased economic activity originating from the Highway
401 East Employment Land Corridor, there would be further interaction among industries/firms
within the region. More inputs being purchased at the local level, along further consumer
expenditures, would result in increased spin-offs resulting from employment growth within the
subject corridor. By London directing its growth within the subject corridor, the geographic scale
of economic activity would increase beyond the region. Because Highway 401 is the most
significant trade corridor in Ontario, the promotion of a diverse range of employment
opportunities within the subject corridor would increase the scope and geographic scale of
economic interaction among different industries/firms and garner further spin-offs. This would
have positive implications on the overall well-being of London and will assist in sustaining and
further diversifying the economy over the long-term. A detailed analysis of spin-off
employment/effects could be assessed in a later report. The types of multipliers that could part of
this additional report are as follows:
a) Output multiplier, which provides an estimate of the total increase in sales for thestudy area38;
b) Employment multiplier, which measures the total change in employment within amunicipality or region, resulting from an initial change in employment of an
exporting industry39;
c) Income multiplier, which measures the total increase in income in the local economyresulting from a one dollar increase in income received by workers in the exporting
industry40;
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d) Value added multiplier, which provides an estimate of the additional value added tothe product as a result of this economy activity (i.e. employee compensation, indirect
business taxes, proprietary and other property income)41.
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Subsection 12:
Potential Population Growth Based
On New Employment Within the
Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor
The City of Londons Planning Department projects a 23,600 increase in employment within the
municipality from 2006 to 2031 at an average annual employment growth rate of only 0.8%; thus
resulting in Londons labour force increasing from 202,600 to 226,20042. Population growth in
London faces a similar trend, with a 66,000 increase projected over the same time period at an
average annual growth rate of only 1%; thus resulting in Londons population increasing from
352,400 to 435,00043.
The Conference Board of Canadas forecasts are similar to those of the Planning Department, but
from the perspective of a 4-year period for the London CMA. A 12,000 increase in employment
is projected within the London CMA from 2011 to 2015 at an average annual employment
growth rate of only 1.25%; thus resulting in the London CMAs current labour force increasing
from 243,000 to 255,000 within this 4-year period44. Similar to the case of the municipality, an
average population growth rate of only 0.7% is anticipated for the London CMA; thus resulting
in the current population of 497,000 increasing to 511,000 by 201545.
The City of Londons current labour of 202,600 represents 55% of the municipalitys population
of 368,40046. As a result, if 23,165 to 30,887 direct jobs related to industrial and office business
park uses, potentially originating from the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor were
to be added to the labour force and 55% of Londons population would continue to be part of the
labour force, the municipalitys population could increase by 42,118 to 56,158. As previously
outlined, employing targets of 30 to 40 jobs per hectare and 2% to 2.5% annual growth would
result in the above figures being achievable.
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Subsection 13:
Comparative Analysis of
Londons Real GDP Figures
Promoting employment growth within the Highway 401 East Corridor will be essential in
achieving the above targets, given the Real GDP growth figures for the London CMA within the
Conference Board of Canadas Winter 2011 Metropolitan Outlook publication, noted in Figure
10 (p. 82).
Londons numbers in population and economic growth will be among the lowest in Canada and
the overall Real GDP growth figure and ranking for the 2006 to 2015 period indicate that the
London CMA has not been performing to the standards of CMAs of similar size and diversity,and both provincial and national trends, as can be noted in Figure 11 (p. 83).
When compared to CMAs of similar size (i.e. Windsor, Kitchener, and Hamilton), London has
not fared well amidst the current economic recovery, as noted in Figure 12 (p. 84).
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Subsection 14:
Missed Opportunities to
Facilitate the Recovery of
Londons Economy
An argument can be made that CMAs, such as Windsor and Kitchener have been experiencing
favourable Real GDP growth rates due to the funds they have been able to obtain from the upper
levels of government for infrastructure projects. The Kitchener CMA, which takes into account
Cambridge and Waterloo, lobbied that projects valued at a total of $110.86 million be part of the
Infrastructure Stimulus Fund47. Furthermore, the Kitchener CMA recently received $265 million
from the federal government to help fund their approximate $800 million light rail system, which
could be operational by 201548.
In comparison, London was able to secure funding for projects valued at a total of $98.24
million, as part of the Infrastructure Stimulus Fund49. One of the most significant infrastructure
projects the City has been undertaking is the London International Airport Cargo Hub. The City
initially secured $8 million dollars from the federal government50 and expanded the terminal at a
cost of $6.5 million51. While London did increase infrastructure spending from the course of
2009 to date, which assisted in increasing construction output, large-scale projects that could
have been geared towards providing the municipality with long-term economic stability and
growth were not pursued. The most notable example of this is how the City of London spent the
funds they received from the Federal Gas Tax Fund in 2009. The $21.87 million share the City
of London received, which was double the 2008 figure, was spent primarily on bike lanes and
several road improvements52. Based on the analysis of other centres, these funds and the pursuit
of more substantive upper level governmental infrastructure monies could have been utilized to
complete major road works, bridges and municipal servicing that would have long-term job
creation and economic stimulating effects, providing city-wide benefits.
Windsor was able to secure upper governmental funding for the largest infrastructural project
ever seen in their overall region, the Windsor-Essex Parkway53. It is anticipated that the project
will create 12,000 direct construction jobs54. Most importantly, it will serve as the new key
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gateway for Midwestern U.S. trade and distribution of goods, support existing industry, attract
new investment, and create business opportunities within the region55.
Hamilton has been positively affected by the Red Hill Valley Parkway, an approximate 7kilometre expressway, which extends from the Lincoln Alexander Parkway to the Queen
Elizabeth Way (QEW). Almost half of the $245 million municipal project was funded by the
provincial government (i.e. $120 million)56. It serves a key node for facilitating the distribution
of goods from Southern Ontario to the Northeastern U.S. and has created opportunities for
further employment growth in the Hamilton CMA.
The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor could serve a similar function to the above
referenced expressway projects, enabling London to experience the aforementioned direct
benefits. Because London is more strategically positioned to serve the Midwestern U.S., GGH
and Northeastern U.S., the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor will prove to be a
more viable initiative for the local economy than in the case of the Windsor-Essex Parkway
because it will provide significant future employment lands, rather than in large part being
bounded by existing development, as in the case in the case of Windsor and Hamilton.
Based on the above, the London CMAs 2010 and 2011 Real GDP growth figures demonstrate
that the region missed out on key infrastructural projects to not only stimulate the economy, but
to work towards planning its long-term stability. As per the Conference Board of Canadas
analysis of 27 Canadian CMAs, it can be argued that many have been better prepared than
London to recover from the 2008 economic downturn, as a result of the fact that they took
advantage of opportunities to invest in growth.
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Subsection 15:
Economic Analysis of London and
Identification of Opportunities to
Improve In Key Sectors
The following provides a breakdown of key economic sectors where the City of London
performed at middling to poor levels, as per the Conference Board of Canadas City Magnets
Report Cards, prior to the 2008 economic downturn:
a) Economy, where the London CMA was ranked 16th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200757.GDP per capita represents the broadest measure of economic activity and is
utilized on a comparative basis to the relative wealth of other municipalities58.
London has continued to experience middling GDP per capita and growth rates
since 2006, with an overall grade of C5960. If this situation is not rectified, it will
have a long-term negative effect on Londons prosperity and well-being of its
citizens.
London should take into account the fact that municipalities with stronger GDP
growth rates and employment figures generate more work opportunities and
increase their attractiveness to migrants61.
b) Education, where the London CMA was ranked 17th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200762.
This ranking and grade of C should not have been the case, as London is home to
two internationally recognized post-secondary educational institutions, the
University of Western Ontario and Fanshawe College, which continue to provide
the municipality a competitive advantage in this economic sphere, opposite other
centres. However, this ranking reflects the fact that London has been poor in
retaining graduates, a fact that will be further exposed in discussing Londons
ranking in the sphere of Society, as the proportion of the local population over
the age of 25 with bachelor and advanced degrees is decreasing.
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c) Society, where the London CMA was ranked 16th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200763.London has been subject to losing its share of population aged 25 to 34. The
retention of this demographic group has been middling to poor with a grade of Cand ranking of 31st of 50 Canadian cities in 201064.
London should take into account the fact that municipalities retaining and
attracting this demographic group, which represents the mobile and educated
heart of the creative class, allows them to be better positioned for the future65.
d) Innovation, where the London CMA was ranked 14th of 27 Canadian CMAs in200766.
Innovation remained middling to poor from 2007 to 2010. In the latter year, it was
particularly middling in the level of productivity, receiving a grade of C and poor
in productivity growth with a grade of D (i.e. ranked 27th of 50 Canadian cities)67.
London has not been adept in making gains in wealth creation; thus, it should be
cognisant of the fact that productivity enables a local municipality to foster
economic growth and purchasing power for households68.
e) Housing, where the London CMA was ranked 12th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200769.Growth in residential building permits has experienced a significant decline since
2006, from receiving a grade of A from 2002 to 200670, to declining by 35%
between late 2006 and late 200871. Despite increasing by approximately 20%
from late 2008 to late 200972, housing starts are now suffering a 15% decline,
according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC),
compared to the initial four months of 201073. Housing starts in the London CMA
are forecasted to decline by another 20% from 2012 to 201574.
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