Cities & Urbanisation#1 development tool?

June 2015

www.pwc.co.uk

Photo by ©peter biarlobrzeski

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PwC Megatrends

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The Urban Age

Over 70 %of globalgreenhousegas emissionscome fromcities

Over 80 % ofglobal GDPis generatedin cities

1.4 millionpeoplemove tocities eachweek – 55%of people nowlive in cities

A third of globalcity dwellerslive in slums,63% inAfricancountries

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93% ofurbanpopulationgrowth willtake place indevelopingcountries

Over $50trillion ofinvestmentis needed inurbaninfrastructureby 2050

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When countries grow, they urbanise – right?

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Urbanisation %

HICs

Upper MICs

MICs

Lower MICs

LICs

Ec

on

om

icm

atu

rit

y

Higher income countries with low-growth, complex and diversified economiesand urban systems with high degrees ofautonomy for cities

Middle income countriesexperiencing rapid economic and spatialtransformation

Low income countries withweak relationships betweeneconomy and geography

2013

1960

1960

2013

2013

1960

2013

1960

1960

2013

Plan Build Regenerate

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Making urbanisation work for developmentThree things to get right

Economies ofagglomeration

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National urbansystems

Rural – UrbanLinkages

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Unlocking thepower of cities inEthiopia

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Project objectivesSupporting Ethiopia’s urban transition

To develop a frameworkwhich Ethiopia can use todesign its spatial economicstrategy

Spatial EconomicPlanning Framework 1

To underpin this withanalysis tools that linkeconomic and urbanstrategies

Analysis thatsupports growth 2

To use scenario analysis tohelp inform planners andpolicymakers of the trade-offs and opportunities

A preferred spatialeconomic strategy 3

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Introducing the 5-stage Spatial EconomicPlanning Framework used to inform this work

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Implementation

planning

Objectives &

situation

analysis

Options

analysis

and

preferred

spatial

scenario

Benchmarking

& scenario

development

To be revisited and updated at each 5 year GTP cycle

4.1. 2. 3. 5.

Urban demand

model

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Stage 1: Population, urbanisation and economicdevelopment trends in Ethiopia

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40%

25%

18%

16%

15%

83m 87m

90m

100m112m

382mB

739mB

1,100mB

1,700mB

2,300mB

GDP

Pop.

Urbanisation

Projection

2015 2020 20302025

30%

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Stage 2: Spatial urban demand model

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D

C

A

B

Final urban Demand

Physical constraint layers

Economic input layers

+

+

=

Current urban structure

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Stage 2: Layering demand drivers and constraints

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Current urban structure

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Stage 3: Economic transformation storiesStructural transformation and urbanisation

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24

23

59

7

12

126

826

years to reachMIC status(Korea)

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

Honduras

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Stage 3: Spatial growth scenarios

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Polycentricnetwork ofcities

Key city‘clusters’

Distributedregionalcentres

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Stage 4: The Performance Assessment Framework

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Smarterurbansystems

Engines ofgrowth

Hubs ofsocialdevelopment

Greenergrowth

Low carbondevelopment

Environmentallysensitive

Resourceefficiency

ClimateResilience

Quality oflife

Equity andinclusion

Socialinfrastructure andservices

Rural-urbanlinkages

Competitivecities

MSMEgrowth

Access tomarkets

andservices

Connectedpopulation

Compacturban form

Coordinated urbannetwork

BAUscenario

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Stage 4: Scenario analysis

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Smarterurbansystems

Engines ofgrowth Hubs of social

development

Greenergrowth

Low carbondevelopment

Environmentallysensitive

Resourceefficiency

Resilience

Quality oflife

Culturallyinclusive

Socialinfrastructure andservices

Strong rural-urban linkages

Competitivecities

MSMEgrowth

Access tomarkets

Connectedpopulation

Compacturban form

Coordinated urbannetwork

BAUscenario

Primatescenario

Polycentricscenario

Clusteredscenario

Distributedscenario

Preferredscenario

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Stage 4: Preferred strategy: Three directions

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Unlocking the power ofnew and specialisedurban growth centres

Agglomerate and connecteconomic functions andmarkets

Embed compact,connected, resilient andsustainable urbanplanning and design

1. 2. 3.

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Stage 5: Implementation priorities

Governanceand capacity

Capital andfinancialmanagement

Key EconomicInfrastructure

Policy andregulation

Risks andconstraints

Privateinvestment

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Priorities for donor programming?

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EnvironmentGovernance &Capacity

Spatial economic planning

Improving the enabling environment

Unlocking finance and investment

Equitable and inclusive transition

Cities as market systems?

Key research and knowledge gaps

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