CIS Oil&Gas Agoria Carbon Energy Club Moscow, April 4 th , 2011
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Transcript of CIS Oil&Gas Agoria Carbon Energy Club Moscow, April 4 th , 2011
CIS Oil&Gas CIS Oil&Gas Agoria Carbon Energy ClubAgoria Carbon Energy ClubMoscow, April 4Moscow, April 4thth, 2011, 2011
CIS Oil&Gas CIS Oil&Gas Agoria Carbon Energy ClubAgoria Carbon Energy ClubMoscow, April 4Moscow, April 4thth, 2011, 2011
Johan Vanderplaetse
VP CIS & Turkey
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BRIC Gross Domestic Product (GDP) BRIC Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita Per Capita BRIC Gross Domestic Product (GDP) BRIC Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita Per Capita
2010 GDP Per Capita $(000’s)
2000-2010 GDP Per Capita CAGR
India
China
Russia
Brazil
$15
$15
$12
$3
Russia Offers an Established Market and Steady Growth
2010-2020 GDP Per Capita $ ∆ (000’s)
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Macroeconomic Indicators RussiaMacroeconomic Indicators RussiaMacroeconomic Indicators RussiaMacroeconomic Indicators Russia
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Indicators 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP, % 6.4 8.2 8.5 5.2 (7.8) 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3
Inflation (year‐end), % 13.0 10.0 9.0 14.0 8.8 8.8 8.0 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.2
Unemployment rates, % 7.2 7.2 6.1 6.3 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.8 5.5
GFI, % 10.6 18.0 20.8 10.9 (15.9) 3.5 8.1 9.1 9.6 6.9 6.0
Industrial output 5.1 6.3 6.8 0.6 (9.3) 8.2 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.0
Rouble/$ (year‐end) 28.3 27.2 25.6 24.8 30.3 30.4 28.0 28.8 29.5 29.0 28.7
Recent Economic Developments
• After a deep fall during the 2008 downturn, Russia’s economy recuperated very fast (driven by high oil prices)
• But this also shows how dependent Russia remains from natural resources
• Russia’s GDP growth at 4%, current account balance and fiscal deficit perform better then expected
• Russia maintains enviable external account dynamics, with a robust current account surplus, limited foreign debt and high reserve holdings
• US $1trn public-private investment plan over the long term will substantially modernise Russia’s transport, communications, electricity and utilities infrastructure
Investment Climate
• Lessons from 2008 crisis has accelerated the efforts by the government to diversity its economy, with Skolkovo being a pet-project for President Medvedev
• Fight against corruption continues, but stays until today mostly on paper
• Still, Russia ranked world’s 5th top priority recipient economy for FDI for 2010-2012. The scheduled accession to the WTO in 2012 will further boost the economy
• Russia plans also the set-up of a “special sovereign fund” to attract foreign capital
• The government embarks on a massive new privatization plan: 600 state-controlled companies to be sold through 2015
Investments – Power Investments – Power RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030 Investments – Power Investments – Power RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030
Coal26.5 GW 24%
Gas73.6 GW 52%Hydro-power &renewables81.8 GW 63%
Nuclear38.2 GW 62%
TOTAL
Power generation in 2008, Total 224.9 GW
85.5 GW – 38%
68.4 GW – 30%
47.2 GW – 21%23.8 GW – 11%
112 GW – 25%142 GW – 32%
129 GW – 29%62 GW – 14%
Power generation in 2030, Total 445 GW
126$B
233$B
529$B
TOTAL (2009-2030): 900$BTOTAL (2009-2030): 900$B
Capital expenditures in power production, $B
Capital expenditures in power supply, $B
95$B
141$B
352$B
TOTAL (2009-2030): 600$BTOTAL (2009-2030): 600$B
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IN THE PERIOD 2009-2030 RUSSIA IS PLANNED TO INVEST $1,500B IN POWER PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY
220.1 GW 49%
By 2030 power generation capacity will almost double
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
Investments – Oil&Gas Investments – Oil&Gas RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030Investments – Oil&Gas Investments – Oil&Gas RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030RUSSIA: ENERGY STRATEGY TILL 2030
Russia (oil) – $300bn, 2010-
2020
Gas: 590$B / 49% Oil: 625$B / 51%
165$B 139$B
321$B
155$B 136$B
299$B
Growth – 41.6% (2008-2030)
Growth – 31.2% (2008-2030)
7Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
By 2030, 1,200$B is planned to be invested in Oil & Gas
By 2030, 1,200$B is planned to be invested in Oil & Gas
Investments – Oil&Gas: Global majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Global majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Global majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Global majors
Russia (oil) – $300bn, 2010-
2020
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RU: Sakhalin 2 (with Gazprom, Mitsui , Mitsubishi)
$24.5B
RU: Gazprom and Shell agree global cooperation
-
RU: Has started building a Lube blending plant $0.1B
RU: Salym field (JV): total project cost is $1B $1B
KZ: Kashagan field , Arman JV, Zhemchuzhina field , CPC. Till 2009 Shell invested more
than $3B -
RU: Oil deal with Rosneft (Barents & Black seas) -
RU: Total buys 12% of Novatek and joins the Yamal LNG project $4B
RU: Shtokman gas field (Total, Gazprom, Statoil) $15B
RU: In 2010 acquired a 49% stake in Novatek’s owned subsidiary, Terneftegas, for $44 m .
Investment plan is n/a-
KZ: Kashagan field: total project cost is $136B . Consortium. -
KZ: Khvalynskoye field: total project cost is $5B. Total SA and GDF Suez Group will
invest $1B$1B
KZ: Total acquired a 50% interest in OTG -
AZ: Shah Deniz field . Stage 2. Consortium : Total’s investment share is n/a
-
AZ: Absheron block: the cost of the first exploration work is approx $200M
$0.2B
RU: Black sea oil deal with Rosneft $1B
RU: Sakhalin 1 (SODECO, ONGC Videsh , Rosneft) $12.8B
KZ: Tengiz field: Consortium is planning to invest $15.2B from 2016
$15.2B
KZ: Kashagan field: total project cost is $136B. Consortium. -
KZ: CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) . Pipeline expansion
$5.4B
AZ: Chirag field . Consortium: ExxonMobil’s investment share is n/a $6B
RU: Arctic oil deal with Rosneft (Kara sea) $1.4-2B
RU: Share-swap agreement (BP – 9.5% of Rosneft shares, Rosneft – 5% of BP’s) -
RU: TNK-BP: within 2011-2013 invests $14B $14B
RU: Sakhalin IV , V (BP-Rosneft) $5-7.6B
AZ: To date BP has invested in oil & gas projects $28B
AZ: Chirag field . Consortium: BP’s investment share is n/a $6B
RU: Black sea oil deal with Rosneft $32B
KZ: Tengiz field: Consortium is planning to invest $15.2B from 2016
$15.2B
KZ: CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) . Pipeline expansion
$5.4B
AZ: Chirag field . Consortium: Chevron’s investment share is n/a $6B
Investments – Oil&Gas: Local majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Local majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Local majors Investments – Oil&Gas: Local majors
Russia (oil) – $300bn, 2010-
2020
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Gas reserves (proved, bcf)Oil reserves (proved, mb)
22,850.013,696.0
Gas production (bcm/year)Oil production (mt/year)
14.597.6
Market Capitalization $59B
Russia & CIS:
Upstream: RU (Western Siberia, Timan-Pechora, Urals and Volga), KZ (Tengiz, Karachaganak), AZ (Shakh-Deniz), UZ (Kandym, South-West Gissar)
Abroad: Upstream: Egypt (Meleiha, WEEM), Iraq (WestQurna2)
Gas reserves (proved, bcm)Oil reserves (proved, mt)
816.02,483.0
Gas production (bcm/year)Oil production (mt/year)
12.7109.0
Market Capitalization $96B
Russia & CIS:
Upstream: RU (Timan-Pechora, Kharampurskoe gas field, Western Siberia, Vankor, Eastern Siberia, Sakhalin 1,3,4,5, Southern Siberia, Artic field, Black sea), KZ (Aday and Kurmangazy blocks)
Abroad: Upstream: Algeria (245-South Block)
Gas reserves (A+B+C1, bcm)Oil reserves (A+B+C1, mt)
33,578.01,785.0
Gas production (bcm/year)Oil production (mt/year)
550.032
Market Capitalization $189B
Russia & CIS:
RU (Yamal, North stream, South stream, Shtokman, Sakhalin II, Eastern Gas Program), UZ (Dzhel gas field)
Abroad: Vietnam, India, Venezuela, Libya (Elephant oil field) , Algeria, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iraq (Badra oil field) ,
Gas reserves (proved, bcm)Oil reserves (proved, mt)
1,144.073.0
Gas production (bcm/year)Oil production (mt/year)
37.83.6
Market Capitalization $39B
Russia & CIS: RU (Yamal-Nenets Autonomous region)
Abroad: -
Oil reserves (proved, mb) 13,069.0
Oil production (mt/year) 72.0
Market Capitalization $44B
Russia & CIS: Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, Volga-Ural region
Abroad:Veneuela (PetroMonagas, PetroPerija, Boqueron), Vietnam (offshore gas assets: Block 08-01, NamConSon gas pipeline, Phu My 3 power plant)
Oil reserves (proved, mt) 760.0
Oil production (mt/year) 22.0
Market Capitalization (Razvedka Dobycha KazMunayGaz AO)
$10B
Russia & CIS:
44 oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan (Kashagan, Tengiz, Kumkol, Kurmangazy, Khvalynskoe)
Abroad: Romania (oil refinery), Iraq (Akkas gas field)
Customer Segmentation Customer Segmentation Customer Segmentation Customer Segmentation
● FOREIGN CONTROLLED / MANAGED:
● INTERMEDIATE:
Centralized:
Decentralized:
● LOCAL:
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“EASY”
“DIFFICULT”
Decision Making Process: Russian SpecificsDecision Making Process: Russian Specifics
Decision Making Process: WesternDecision Making Process: Western
Decision Making ProcessDecision Making Process
Drivers & Dimensions Relevant For All SegmentsDrivers & Dimensions Relevant For All SegmentsDrivers & Dimensions Relevant For All SegmentsDrivers & Dimensions Relevant For All SegmentsDRIVERS
● Price
● Quality of offering– product quality
– address “pain”
● Financing– ducroire
● Implementation
● Relations– proper
– improper
DIMENSIONS
● Bottom-up : smaller deals
● Bottom-up & Top-down: large deals
Get your political story right 11
“RANDOM 3”: you win
“RANDOM 2” : you could win
“RANDOM 1” : you loose
TYPE OF COMPETITION
- local competition
- Western competition
- Chinese competition
Business Model & go-to marketBusiness Model & go-to marketBusiness Model & go-to marketBusiness Model & go-to market
● DIRECT MODEL
For large customers, large deals or “western” companies
● INDIRECT MODEL
For smaller customer, smaller deals or “local” customers
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Multinationals tend to go direct, SME’s more indirect
● customer intimacy ● master complexities
(customs , supply chain, etc.)
● maintain margin ● high direct costs
● low entry cost ● lower customer intimacy
● “outsource complexity” ● Impact on margin
● do you bet on right horse?
CIS CIS distributors/integratorsdistributors/integratorsCIS CIS distributors/integratorsdistributors/integrators
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Name Region Type Industry Accounts ServicesGlobalstroy-Engineering, JSC, Moscow
CIS EPC Oil&Gas Lukoil, Rosneft, Salavatnefteorgsintez, Shurtansky petrochemical complex (Uzbekistan)
EPC Oil and Gas + Civil and Structural projects
Stroytransgaz, Moscow CIS, Near East, N. Africa, Europe, S E Asia, Central Asia
EPC Oil&Gas, electric power BOTAŞ, ConocoPhillips, DEPA, Dolphin Energy, GAIL, Gazprom, LUKOIL, Mosenergo, NIAEP, Reliance Ind. Ltd, Rosneft, RUSAL, Saudi Aramco, Sintez, SONATRACH, Syrian Gas Company, TNK-BP, Transneft
EPC O&G, industrial building
GIPROGAZOOCHISTKA, Moscow
CIS, E Eu, M East, S E Asia
EPC Metallurgy, Oil&Gas, Chemistry, Power
ROSNEFT, Surgutneftegas, Gasprom Neft + Industrial and HC gas purification, processes related
HMS Group (HydroMash), Moscow
CIS OEM/EPC Oil&Gas, power generation, trunk pipe transport, water utilities
Various pump and oil&gas equipment
OZNA AK, Ufa CIS OEM/EPC Oil&Gas Various Industrial equipment&solutions
RusGazEngineering, Podolsk, Mosc. Reg.
CIS EPC Oil&Gas Lukoil, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, NOVATEK EPC Field facilities con-struction; Chemical facilities design and constr.
Grasis, Moscow CIS OEM All Shell, Eni, Enel, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, Rosneft, TNK-BP, Lukoil, NOVATEK, Surgutneftegaz, RITEC, Tatneft, Slavneft+
Gas production and separation
KRUG, Moscow CIS, Poland OEM/SI O&G, Heat-electric power, Municipal & civil constr. Ind.
Various Industrial automation systems and solutions
METROLOGY AND AUTOMATION, Samara
Russia, Volga SI (System Integrator)
Oil&Gas ROSNEFT, Lukoil + Automation
ARGOSY CJSC, Moscow Russia, Central D/SI Oil&Gas Various AutomationNPP "GKS", Kazan Russia, Volga,
UralSI Oil&Gas ROSNEFT, Gasprom, Gasprom Neft + Automation
IDELE INTERNATIONAL GMBH, St. Petersburg
Russia, Northwest
D (Distrib.) Oil&Gas Various Automation
Inkomsistem, Kazan Russia SI Oil&Gas Various Automation, Custody transf. skids
Nefteavtomatika, Ufa Russia SI Oil&Gas Various Automation, Custody transf. skids