Cincinnati Law and Public Safety Committee Meeting Violence Update May 26, 2015 Institute of Crime...

Cincinnati Law and Public

Safety Committee Meeting

Violence Update

May 26, 2015Institute of Crime ScienceSchool of Criminal JusticeUniversity of Cincinnati

Year-to-Date and 6-Month

Violence Trends

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

25

19

2522

30

18

27

32

24

Cincinnati Homicide TotalsJanuary 1 –May 24

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

22

11

16

12

17

12

16

19

6

Cincinnati GMI Homicide TotalsJanuary 1 – May 24

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

0.0%

10.0

%

20.0

%

30.0

%

40.0

%

50.0

%

60.0

%

70.0

%

80.0

%

90.0

%

100.

0%

86.1%

53.8%

59.4%

59.3%

51.3%

60.9%

58.1%

64.1%

25.9%

Cincinnati Group Member Involved HomicidesNovember 25 – May 24

Cincinnati HomicideVictim Demographics 2005-2015

% Male % Black Avg. Age

2005 83.3% 85.9% 28.6

2006 82.2% 67.8% 31.3

2007 89.7% 85.3% 30.5

2008 91.8% 75.3% 32.8

2009 74.6% 90.9% 30.7

2010 87.8% 87.8% 27.3

2011 91.6% 95.5% 27.6

2012 86.8% 75.5% 30.2

2013 93.1% 91.5% 29.5

2014 87.1% 87.1% 29.9

2015 56.5% 69.6% 28.8

* 2015 does not contain full year of data

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

50

100

150

200

250

126134

160145 148 150 156

133

162

Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shooting VictimsJanuary 1 –May 24

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/150

50

100

150

200

250

170159

193 192 186 185 187

168

199

Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings Victims

Last 6 Month Trends, November 25 – May 24

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

50

100

150

200

250

170159

193 192186 185 187

168

199

Cincinnati Fatal and Nonfatal Shooting VictimsLast 6 Month Trends, November 25 – May 24

YTD Avg. +2 Std. Dev. -2 Std. Dev.

% Male % Black Avg. Age

2005 88.0% 84.6% 27.1

2006 87.4% 85.0% 26.8

2007 85.1% 83.5% 26.7

2008 90.4% 87.3% 26.9

2009 87.3% 92.2% 27.3

2010 90.2% 88.3% 27.6

2011 88.4% 87.0% 27.1

2012 90.1% 86.9% 27.7

2013 88.5% 92.0% 28.9

2014 87.9% 89.1 28.5

2015* 88.3% 91.4% 28.3

Cincinnati Fatal &Non-Fatal ShootingVictim Demographics 2005-2015

* 2015 does not contain full year of data

YearShooting Victims

Incidents

# of Multiple Victim

Incidents

% of Incidents with Multiple

Victims

Count of Victims from Multiple

Victim Incidents

2010 145 129 11 8.5% 27

2011 148 134 10 7.5% 24

2012 150 136 8 5.9% 22

2013 156 134 16 11.9% 38

2014 133 116 14 12.1% 31

2015 162 141 17 12.1% 39

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings: Multiple VictimsJanuary 1 – May 24


Incidents


Incidents


Victims


Victim Incidents

2010 145 129 11 8.5% 27

2011 148 134 10 7.5% 24

2012 150 136 8 5.9% 22

2013 156 134 16 11.9% 38

2014 133 116 14 12.1% 31

2015 162 141 17 12.1% 39

2015 to 2014

+21.8%

+21.6%



Incidents


Incidents


Victims


Victim Incidents

2010 145 129 11 8.5% 27

2011 148 134 10 7.5% 24

2012 150 136 8 5.9% 22

2013 156 134 16 11.9% 38

2014 133 116 14 12.1% 31

2015 162 141 17 12.1% 39

2015 to 2014

+21.8%

+21.6%

2015 to 5-year average

+10.8%

+24.8%


Neighborhood Count

Avondale 20

Westwood 13

Winton Hills 12

Walnut Hills 11

West End 11

Over-the-Rhine 10

Mount Airy 9

East Westwood 8

CUF 6

Roselawn 6

Top 10 Neighborhood Total 106

City Total 162

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings (Victims) in Top 10 Neighborhoods

January 1 – May 24

65.4% of all

shootings

41.4% of all

shootings

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings in Top 10 NeighborhoodsJanuary 1 – May 24

Neighborhood 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Avondale 18 14 15 16 20 20

Westwood 11 6 7 4 4 13

Winton Hills 6 10 6 12 5 12

Walnut Hills 6 4 20 6 14 11

West End 11 5 7 10 12 11

Over-the-Rhine 10 30 17 16 14 10

Mount Airy 6 0 4 3 6 9

East Westwood 0 1 0 6 3 8

CUF 1 2 2 1 1 6

Roselawn 9 6 2 7 2 6

Top 10 Neighborhood Total 78 78 80 81 81 106

City Total 145 148 150 156 133 162

% of City Total 53.8% 52.7% 53.3% 51.9% 60.9% 65.4%

1/1-2/25

2/26-3/4

3/5-3/11

3/12-3/18

3/19-3/25

3/26-4/1

4/2-4/8

4/9-4/15

4/16-4/22

4/23-4/29

4/30-5/6

5/7-5/13

5/14-5/20

5/21-5/24

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

5257

6369

7785

9199

108114 123

133140

146

39 45 46 53

6876

8891 99

114

124

144

157162

2012-2014 Avg.

2015

Fatal and Nonfatal Shooting Cumulative CountsJanuary 1 – May 24

Call-in

1/1-

1/7

1/8-

1/14

1/15

-1/2

1

1/22

-1/2

8

1/29

-2/4

2/5-

2/11

2/12

-2/1

8

2/19

-2/2

5

2/26

-3/4

3/5-

3/11

3/12

-3/1

8

3/19

-3/2

5

3/26

-4/1

4/2-

4/8

4/9-

4/15

4/16

-4/2

2

4/23

-4/2

9

4/30

-5/6

5/7-

5/13

5/14

-5/2

0

5/21

-5/2

7

5/28

-6/3

6/4-

6/10

6/11

-6/1

7

6/18

-6/2

4

6/25

-7/1

7/2-

7/8

7/9-

7/15

7/16

-7/2

2

7/23

-7/2

9

7/30

-8/5

8/6-

8/12

8/13

-8/1

9

8/20

-8/2

6

8/27

-9/2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fatal and Nonfatal Shootings –Weekly TrendsJanuary 1 – September 2

20152012/2013/2014 Avg

Call-In

Neighborhood ShootingVictims Population Rate per

1,000

Millvale 14 2,399 5.84

East Westwood 14 2,445 5.73

Winton Hills 21 4,787 4.39

Spring Grove Village 8 1,964 4.07

Avondale 49 12,466 3.93

Walnut Hills 25 6,495 3.85

Over-the-Rhine 22 6,064 3.63

West End 24 6,627 3.62

North Avondale 11 3,229 3.41

Fay Apartments 6 1,916 3.13

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shooting Rates in Top 10 Neighborhoods*

12 Month Trend: May 25, 2014 – May 24, 2015

*Neighborhoods with 5 or fewer shootings were excluded from this analysis

6 Month Violence Trend Maps

Top 5 Neighborhoods

Cincinnati Law and Public Safety Committee Meeting Violence Update May 26, 2015 Institute of Crime...

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