Cim2013 oboni oboni_zabolotoniuk

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Can We Stop Misrepresenting Reality Can We Stop Misrepresenting Reality to the Public?to the Public?

By Franco Oboni, By Franco Oboni, Cesar Oboni, Oboni Riskope Associates Inc., Cesar Oboni, Oboni Riskope Associates Inc.,

www.riskope.comwww.riskope.com Susan Zabolotniuk Susan Zabolotniuk [email protected]@gmail.com

http://www.riskope.com/


mailto:[email protected]


Let's start with a point we probably Let's start with a point we probably all agree upon:all agree upon:There has been approximately half a There has been approximately half a century ofcentury of

PUBLIC DISTRUSTPUBLIC DISTRUST



There was a time Public considered There was a time Public considered Scientists trustworthy experts.Scientists trustworthy experts.



Meanwhile governments would Meanwhile governments would oftentimes neglect risk assessments,oftentimes neglect risk assessments,

leading, for leading, for example, to example, to disastrous disastrous residential zoning residential zoning decisions, decisions, generating vivid, generating vivid, media-friendy media-friendy consequences .consequences .



This simplified ISO This simplified ISO 31000 scheme 31000 scheme shows the shows the consideration given consideration given to communication to communication and consultation at and consultation at every stage of Risk every stage of Risk Assessment.Assessment.

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Documented risk assessment

Communication and consultation were Communication and consultation were considered, but rarely truly fosteredconsidered, but rarely truly fostered



Standard practice Communication Standard practice Communication evolution through Projects and Operationsevolution through Projects and Operations



During the same period many Industries During the same period many Industries became satisfied with Risk Assessments became satisfied with Risk Assessments performed following “Common Practices” performed following “Common Practices” based on "PIGs"based on "PIGs"



PIGs add confusion and mislead because PIGs add confusion and mislead because they are arbitrary. Just ask one question:they are arbitrary. Just ask one question:

How is the prioritization criteria defined?How is the prioritization criteria defined?



If we look at historic and recent sets of tolerability If we look at historic and recent sets of tolerability criteria and real probability-consequences data...criteria and real probability-consequences data...



Cases will be Cases will be challenged challenged

in Courts in Courts

of Law against of Law against companies companies using PIGs for using PIGs for their their

risk risk assessments assessments and the and the resulting resulting decisions.decisions.

...and plot the PIG on top, “hazardous” ...and plot the PIG on top, “hazardous” discrepancies become evident!discrepancies become evident!

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Using “frequency” instead of “probability” Using “frequency” instead of “probability” creates confusion. They are not synonyms. creates confusion. They are not synonyms. Frequency is not equal to probability in the Frequency is not equal to probability in the high range; and in the low range it is high range; and in the low range it is misleading! misleading!



PIGs also lead to the so called “overwhelming PIGs also lead to the so called “overwhelming syndrome” as they lack of definition, they are syndrome” as they lack of definition, they are “binning exercises”.“binning exercises”.

PIGs can often result in too many “High” and PIGs can often result in too many “High” and “Medium” risks.“Medium” risks.

Tackling, prioritizing and allotting resources to a Tackling, prioritizing and allotting resources to a large insufficiently differentiated portfolio of risks large insufficiently differentiated portfolio of risks generally ends with:generally ends with: - rejection of the results and - rejection of the results and - no remedial action!- no remedial action!



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Common Practices and sometimes codes Common Practices and sometimes codes have been adding to the brewing have been adding to the brewing confidence crisis by delivering misleading confidence crisis by delivering misleading and fuzzy information.and fuzzy information.

Optimum level of information



Many of these problems can be solved by:Many of these problems can be solved by:

- Developing a transparent tolerability - Developing a transparent tolerability thresholdthreshold- Analyzing in a comprehensive way - Analyzing in a comprehensive way potential consequences including social potential consequences including social ripple effectsripple effects- Using sensible quantitative analyses and - Using sensible quantitative analyses and accepting the inevitable uncertainties.accepting the inevitable uncertainties.



It is possible to do way better then the It is possible to do way better then the obsolete Standard Practicesobsolete Standard Practices

and the next slide shows one example and the next slide shows one example

from a real life holistic risk assessment.from a real life holistic risk assessment.

The results you will see INCLUDE of The results you will see INCLUDE of course a specifically developed course a specifically developed

client's tolerability threshold.client's tolerability threshold.



Acme Inc.4 Divisions: A,B,C,D;Diversified3 countries;International Exports.

Sources of Threats Sources of Threats

Media VulnerabilityMedia Vulnerability

Potential Losses per ProductPotential Losses per Product

Hazardous SectorsHazardous SectorsLogistic Risks Logistic Risks



Two general additional considerations:Two general additional considerations:

Designers performing Risk Assessments on their Designers performing Risk Assessments on their own projects/designs oftentimes constitute a conflict own projects/designs oftentimes constitute a conflict of interest that has been “picked-up” by public of interest that has been “picked-up” by public opinion.opinion.

Without a third party perspective Risk Assessments Without a third party perspective Risk Assessments most likely miss big picture items.most likely miss big picture items.The process should be consultative, but too many The process should be consultative, but too many times projects' developers “forget” that aspect times projects' developers “forget” that aspect because of the “overwhelming syndrome” we will because of the “overwhelming syndrome” we will discussed earlier.discussed earlier.



Risk Communication cannot be Risk Communication cannot be paternalistic... but a partnershippaternalistic... but a partnership



Partnering with the public requires Partnering with the public requires communication, consultation and communication, consultation and participation.participation.



Communication has to be understandable Communication has to be understandable by all partners.by all partners.



Trust and Trust and Credibility must Credibility must be earned by be earned by using modern, using modern,

transparent and transparent and understandable understandable methodologies methodologies which include which include

and foster and foster communication.communication.



Misrepresentation has to be avoided: Misrepresentation has to be avoided:

Unbiased “big picture” Unbiased “big picture” view of risks, view of risks,

in depth consequence in depth consequence and and

tolerability analyses tolerability analyses are necessary.are necessary.



Long term is critical. If we do not evaluate it Long term is critical. If we do not evaluate it right, our children will have to bear it. right, our children will have to bear it.


Cim2013 oboni oboni_zabolotoniuk

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