CIFOR Bruno Locatelli

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THINKING beyond the canopy Forests and Trees for a Climate Smart Agriculture Climate Change Adaptation and African Agriculture Grantee Convening, 24-25 February 2011, Nairobi, Kenya, The Rockefeller Foundation Bruno Locatelli A Research Proposal

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Rockefeller convening presentation by CIFOR's Bruno Locatelli

Transcript of CIFOR Bruno Locatelli

THINKING beyond the canopy

Forests and Trees for a Climate Smart Agriculture

Climate Change Adaptation and African Agriculture Grantee Convening, 24-25 February 2011,

Nairobi, Kenya,

The Rockefeller Foundation

Bruno Locatelli

A Research Proposal

THINKING beyond the canopy

CIFOR-ICRAF

Current CGIAR Reform

• New Consortium Research Program on Forests and Trees

CIFOR, ICRAF, CIAT, Bioversity, and other partners

Component on climate change:

• Mitigation

• Adaptation

• Linkages between adaptation and mitigation

Center for International Forestry Research

World Agroforestry Center

Climate change mitigation and adaptation are priority issues

Headquarters

Climate change activities

THINKING beyond the canopy

The role of forests and trees in people’s adaptation

Increasing interest in the role of ecosystem services for people’s adaptation

• In science, policy, and practice

• Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

Forests and

Trees Livelihoods

Ecosystem Services

Conservation, Restoration, Adaptive Management

Adaptation

Huge potential for synergies between:

• Agriculture, forests and trees

In livelihoods and landscapes

• Adaptation and mitigation

THINKING beyond the canopy

Adaptation of agriculture and rural livelihoods: The role of forests and trees

Role of regulating services for agriculture

• Regulation of water (infiltration, conservation of base flow)

• Regulation of microclimate (temperature during heat waves, moisture, wind)

Role of provisioning services (timber, fuel wood, non timber forest products, etc.) for rural livelihoods

Safety nets as coping strategy during extreme events

Diversification as an adapting strategy

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Provisioning services: Ex. in Malawi

“Although forests do not currently play a role in anticipatory adaptation by rural households, they do appear important for reactive coping: providing food during shortages, and a source of cash for coping with weather-related crop failure”.

“Households most reliant on forests have low income per person”

Fisher M., Chaudhury M., McCusker B., 2010. Do Forests Help Rural Households Adapt to Climate Variability? Evidence from Southern Malawi. World Development 38(9): 1241–1250.

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Regulating services

A lot of methods and data on the effect of trees and forests on nutrient & water at different scales:

• water redistribution in soil profile

• increased infiltration affecting river flows and water quality

• regional tree cover may effect rainfall?

Sinclair F., Barrios F., Sileshi G., Bayala J., Muthuri C., 2011. Managing effects of trees on soil and water productivity and their impacts on other ecosystem services. ICRAF Map produced by Meschack Nyabenge from data in Coe, Cooper and Sinclair, in prep.

Need for: - Replicating - Synthesizing (e.g., meta analysis) - Up scaling - Adding an adaptation perspective

THINKING beyond the canopy

Overall objective

To contribute to the integration of forests and trees into local plans and national policies for the adaptation of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate variability and change, for risk reduction, poverty alleviation, human well-being, and synergies with climate change mitigation.

THINKING beyond the canopy

4. Capacity

-building

5. Commu

nication

1. Policy analysis and

policy-science dialogue

3. Adaptation

planning

2. Vulnerability

assessment

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Vulnerability Assessment

What is the role of tree and forest products in the coping and adapting strategies of rural communities?

What is the role of regulating services (water and microclimate) in the resilience of agriculture?

Livelihood analysis, historical analysis (shocks and trends)

Meta-analysis, modeling, and biophysical field research

Questions

Methods

Outputs Scientific evidence on the role of trees and forests in agricultural adaptation

Methods and tools for assessing the role of ecosystem services in adaptation

THINKING beyond the canopy

Adaptation Planning

What forest and tree-related measures can be designed for reducing the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods?

What will be outcomes of these measures in terms of adaptation and mitigation and in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and equity?

Participatory scenario building, backcasting

Modeling, trade-off analysis

Questions

Methods

Outputs

Analysis of possible interventions for integrating trees and forests in agricultural adaptation.

Methods and tools for planning agricultural adaptation with trees and forests.

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Our impact pathways

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Conclusion

Integrating agriculture, trees, forests into adaptation and

mitigation needs:

• Capacity and knowledge

• Policymakers and practitioner networks

• Policies

This project can contribute to this.

But we need:

• Strong partnerships with RF grantees

• Strong partnerships with adaptation initiatives

THINKINGbeyond the canopy THINKING beyond the canopy

Thank you!

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PC1 (Policies)

Are forests and trees currently considered in adaptation plans for agriculture? Why (missing links between forest, agriculture, development, adaptation, and mitigation arenas)?

What are the opportunities for integrating forests and trees into adaptation policies and linking mitigation and adaptation in policies?

Analysis of policy documents

Analysis of stakeholders’ perceptions

Policy network analysis

Questions

Methods

Outputs

Analysis of policy processes, networks, and opportunities for bridging adaptation, agriculture, and forests/trees.

Identified targets for action and communication (in PC4 and PC5)

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Provisioning services: Ex. in Cameroon

Livelihood

actitvities

Climatic exposure

Agriculture Livestock NTFPs Hunting Fishing

Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2

Heavy rainfall --- --- o o o o o o + + Punctual droughts

during rainy season --- - -- - - o o

Occasional rainfall

during dry season ++ + + o

Low rain during all year + + - - o o - Strong winds -- - o - - o Dry season heat waves --- - o o - - o

Forest-related activities: Less sensitive (safety nets?)

Agriculture and livestock: Very sensitive to climate variability

Forests are part of the adaptation strategies proposed by local people. Ex.:

NTFP (domestication, market access, training). Forest governance (e.g., community management with equitable benefit sharing).

--- High negative, -- Med negative, - Low negative, o No, + Low positive, ++ Med positive

THINKING beyond the canopy

Provisioning services: Ex. in Mali

Livelihood activities related to forests:

• Use of fodder for animals.

• Increased charcoal production and wood collection

Forests as a safety nets

• Growing pressure on forest resources during dry years

• Maladaptation unless forest governance ensures resource sustainability and shared benefits

How to move the forest contribution from coping to adapting strategies?

• Need for cross-scale governance

Djoudi H., Brockhaus M., Locatelli B., 2011. Vulnerability to climate variability and change among communities depending on livestock and forest in Northern Mali: a multi-level analysis. Regional Environmental Change, forthcoming

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Approach

Science (analysis of the role of ecosystem services, policy analysis, data, methods and tools … )

Communication (to practitioners, NGOs,

policymakers, government, academic … )

Collaboration with adaptation

initiatives (joint research, capacity building…)

PC1 (policy)

PC2 (vulnerability)

PC3 (adaptation)

PC4 (action)

PC5 (communication)

)

At different scales. International to local.

Key actors identified in PC1 Need to build partnerships with adaptation initiatives

(scientists and practitioners).

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Articulation of the scientific activities and the support to adaptation initiatives and policy processes

Situation analysis

Ecosystem analysis

Livelihood analysis

Current vulnerability

Future scenarios

Future vulnerability

Adaptation options

Evaluation

Adaptation strategic plans

Implementation (through PC4)

Vulnerability assessment (PC2) Adaptation plans (PC3)

Policy review, Policy network analysis, Institutional mapping

Key stakeholders Key processes Policy analysis (PC1)

Sequential order

Interactions

National

Sub - national

Local