Christopher Auricht chris@auricht ACFID Canberra 21 August 2012
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Transcript of Christopher Auricht chris@auricht ACFID Canberra 21 August 2012
Spatial Data and Analysis in Support of Improved Policy and Planning – An ACIAR example using Africa
Christopher Auricht [email protected]
ACFIDCanberra 21 August 2012
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR
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Current status of spatial data and applications
Applications now matured to point where such systems: Can and are being used in various capacities. For
example - Humanitarian scenarios (especially as they relate to
malnutrition, morbidity and mortality) Economic scenarios with and without interventions at
differing stages i.e. decision support systems e.g. pre-emptive, resilience building / risk management interventions v’s emergency response triggered by high mortality or threat i.e. once a crisis has eventuated
Have ability to look at multiple scales( local, national, regional) and longitudinally (forwards and backwards)
See for example – FAO FIVIMS http://www.fivims.org/ and World Bank sites http://data.worldbank.org/indicator?display=map
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Percentage urban and urban agglomerations by size class
1960198020112025
Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm
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Urban agglomerations by size class and potential risk of drought
197020112025
Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm
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Talk outline – Sub-Saharan Africa Example
Context and Background Need for a strategic approach Issues and status of spatial data Methodology used in developing an updated
farming systems dataset and analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa
Food Security and Nutrition AIFSC
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Stitch in time saves nine Spatial data and systems can help inform
where the stitch is needed and the type of stitch required
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Facts According to CGIAR analysis
One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed primarily by: hundreds of millions of small-holder farmers (often
with less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or two), or
Herders (most with fewer than five large animals)
Solution ? Develop sustainable farming systems that
improve efficiency gains to produce increased food production
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One Billion People Suffer Chronic Hunger and Poverty
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Scale of Rural Hunger Nearly one billion people experience debilitation,
health-threatening hunger each year 4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers
Trends in maize shortage in ZambiaPercentage of farm households with maize shortage
The Hunger Period
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Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems
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Background ‘Business-as-usual’ investments in agriculture
unlikely to deliver sustainable solutions in many countries
Numerous obstacles to progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery, political uncertainty etc. These are not the only problem!
Existing systems (often under stress) have been / are expected to continue to accommodate large increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising demand for animal products, plus competition for land and water
Forecasts suggest that current practices will not stay abreast with population growth, environmental change and increasing demand for animal products.
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Population 2000 and 2040 Sub-Saharan Africa (Millions)
Population
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Total Pop 659 746 843 952 1,071 1,333 1,623
Rural Pop 447 491 537 586 635 724 795
Urban 212 255 306 366 436 609 828
Agric Pop 403 437 472 508 544
Females in Ag
78 87 97 109 121
Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision and FAOStat http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm and http://
faostat.fao.org/site/550/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=550#ancor
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Needs Requires a strategic approach, an appreciation of
scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and within systems
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The current ACIAR SSA Farming Systems project Builds on the work of Dixon et al 2001
www.fao.org/farmingsystems/
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2001 Farming Systems and Poverty Widely accepted as pioneering body of work – looked
at things as a ‘surface’ across landscape not confined by country borders – often problems are regional
Largely driven by LGP/AEZ and market access, supplemented by expert opinion
Extensively used to guide investment at the program level and frame analysis in numerous global studies
Approach focused on high level farming systems within six developing regions
Involved use of various thematic data layers to underpin the delineation, characterisation / description and subsequent analysis of systems
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Kenya
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Moz
ambiqu
e
Uganda
Rwanda
Malawi
#
900 0 900 Kilometers
N
Major Farming Systems
1. Irrigation
2. Tree crop
3. Forest based
4. Rice-tree crop
5. Highland perennial
6. Highland temperate mixed
7. Root crops
8. Cereal-root crops mixed
9. Maize mixed
11. Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum
12. Pastoral
13. Sparse (arid)
14. Coastal artisanal fishing
Major Lakes
National Boundaries
Major rivers
Regional ProgrammeCountries
10. Large commercial and smallholder
Program Application
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Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems
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Sub-Saharan Update Is there a demand for this information?
Farming systems website in FAO still one of the most visited sites within the organisation – up to 4,000 hits per month (Site > 10 years old!)
Consistent seamless datasets somewhat limited in original work
In need of updating as spatial extent of systems and frame conditions changed e.g. climate, population, urbanisation, market access, economics etc.
Many updated and new datasets available
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Capture and use data and information in an manner that informs decisions in a simple fashion
Maintain rigour and transparency Establishing an enduring
infrastructure/framework to enable changes to be monitored over time
Ability to support numerous policy initiatives – Principle: collect it once – use it many
Challenge
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Current Situation 2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300
alone in the Harvest Choice database temporal and some predictive data now available
GAEZ 3.0 - 1,000’s of datasets representing 100’s of thematic layers
Question - which ones to use and how Strategic approach
Access and collation Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage,
scale etc) Process Products Disseminate
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Methodology Work in collaborative fashion with authors and other large
data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO, ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others
.
Spatial and Tabular Data
Delineate new Farm-ing System Boundar-ies – Iterative pro-cess based on concept of central tendency
Statistics and Anal-ysis
Characterise and describe systems
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Approach Integration of new datasets –
LGP and Market access Supporting Datasets
Population (rural, urban, total) Livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, LU and
TLU Crop areas and production Yield gaps Protected areas Poverty $2.00 and $1.25 /day Nutrition
ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs
Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow
Port travel times & costs
Terrain, Demography,
Infrastructure, Admin Units
ProductionEnvironment &
Constraints
ProductionSystems &
Performance
Interventions/Responses
Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoffAdministrative Units Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed WheatCrop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person
NA
010
2030
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100 80 60 40 20 0
IrrigationThreshold
% of AvailableSoil Water
MaizeYield
Potentialt[DM]/ha
Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha
Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits
Linkage toMacroModels
Aggregate to FPUs
Source: HarvestChoice 2010
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Changes between 2001 and 2012
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Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops
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Big questions for management and policy
What is it? Where is it? What are its characteristics and how does it
operate ? What are the risks/threats ? What are the opportunities (Research / Extension)
? How are these issues changing with time ? Evaluation and Performance
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Spatial data Tool to support process Understand Analyse Develop interventions Monitor Not the answer in itself
has limitations Fit for purpose Complement with expert knowledge
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Spatial data and ACIAR Activities Update of Farming Systems for Sub-Saharan Africa Informing development of policy and program
development as part of the ACIAR ‘Australian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)’ Announced by Prime Minister Gillard October 2011-
International focus, recognising the significance of food security to developing countries.
Providing a bridge between agriculture (technologies, policies and practices) and their adoption by smallholder farmers (including livestock keepers). Increase adoption increase productivity and diversity and generate additional income
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AIFSC Research gaps in terms of food security,
agriculture and nutrition in line with the AIFSC strategy and African priorities
Support in determining how AIFSC could best complement work being undertaken by partners in target countries and where we should invest
Nutrition indicators – under-nutrition, child nutrition, maternal under-nutrition, micronutrient deficiencies
Nutrition interventions , regional analysis, country snapshots
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Thanks Acknowledgements
ACIAR IFPRI – Harvest Choice CGIAR ILRI ICRAF FAO IIASA others
Questions & Discussion