Christoph Frei Generalsekretär des Word Energy Council€¦ · Christoph Frei Generalsekretär des...

Christoph FreiGeneralsekretär des Word Energy Council

SPEEDING UP THE CHANGE WITH GLOBAL INNOVATION

© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil

GRAND TRANSITION, DIGITAL REVOLUTION & NEW ENERGY REALITIES

@chwfrei@WECouncil


Carbon Intensity Reduction1970-2015

% reduction p.a. 1970-2015Actuals

Note: Positive % changes denote a reduction in CO2 emissions [Gt] per GDP [USD]Source: Total Economy Database, BP (2015) Statistical Review, IPCC (2015) “AR5, Synthesis Report”;

2015-2060de-carbonization required to achieve 1000 GtCO2 by 2100

Note: Assumes global GDP growth of 2.6%

0,6%

-0,4

%

2,7%

-0,7

%

0,4%

2,2%

2,9%

1,0%

0,2%

1,4% 1,

9%

0,2%

2,5% 2,1% 3,

3%

1,0%

0,5%

0,2%

2,4%

-0,4

%

1,0%

2,2%

3,0%

1,0%

6%

China India Germany Saudi Arabia Spain United StatesUnited

KingdomWorld

Average1000 GtCO2

by 2100

1970-2000 2000-2014 1970-2014

from 1%/yr

to 6%/yr

© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 30

• The Issues Monitor assesses 42 issues in a high-level overview, covering four categories:

1. Macroeconomic Risks2. Geopolitics3. Business Environment4. Energy Vision & Tech

• The responses are translated into three assessed dimensions:

1. Impact (x axis)2. Uncertainty (y axis)3. Urgency (size of

bubble)

What is the Issues Monitor


Issues Monitor - Global Trends

• Similar picture to last year: Consolidation of energy transition trends with high emphasis on renewables and energy efficiency


Tracking Innovation since 2010

• Technology innovation clusters of renewable energies, electric storage, & innovative transport are moving up.

• This technology push is going hand in hand with innovation in new market designs and decentralised systems.


Tracking Centralised issues since 2010

• Traditional baseload generation (i.e. coal, nuclear, etc.) are all very present in the global fuel mix now and in future projections, but decentralisation continues its push.

• Renewable energy and energy efficiency goals are keeping most countries busy.


Tracking Trade Barriers since 2010

• Trade barriers defined as constraining or enabling green growth (e.g. through technology transfer, tariffs on green goods and services, local content requirements, border tax adjustment) is on significant upwards move since 2011.


17/11 Mexico’s Energy Auction$19.18/MWh average price

17/10 300MW in Saudi Arabia$17.86/MWh average price


100 W

“uberisation in energy”

Internet of things (IoT) in energy

automating transactions between large numbers of small devices

enabled by distributed ledgers / blockchain

has potential to deliver system services at scale

and thereby reduce physical infrastructure needs


electric StreetScooterdo it yourself DHL -style


No ‘all electric’ vision: Green molecules, building on existing supply chains

green fuels from renewable electricity (power-to-X) include hydrogen, ammonia, methane, methanol, formic acid, diesel, gasoline, or kerosene

“power-to-X is a necessary element of the global energy transition” for storability, cost, availability and acceptability considerations due to reusing existing infrastructure [WEC Germany, frontiereconomics, 181018]

global trade is key for reasons of cost and resources availability

potential scale: today’s oil production is about equivalent to 2-3 times the electricity production in terms of energy


New business models:Rural electrification

Digitalization & decentralization:Rural household solutions

© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil @chwfrei@WECouncil

Energy realities are shifting. Faster than ever.

• The D3 driven transition offers a unique opportunity to achieve more secure, affordable and clean energy for all.

• Electricity is the new oil. The digit is the new battery.

• However: The way to Trilemma heaven needs green liquids.

• 100% energy access can be achieved by 2030.

Act now.


PRE-DETERMINED FACTORS: The Grand Transition

Population / Workforce

New technologies

Planetary boundaries

Shift in power

Pace of innovation and productivity

Int’l governance & geo-political change

Priority given to climate change

‘Tools for action’ - markets vs state

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

Modern Jazz

Market mechanisms, technology

innovation, energy access for all

Unfinished Symphony

Strong policy, long-term planning, united

climate action

Hard Rock

Fragmented scenario, inward looking

policies, low global cooperation

THREE ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS to 2060

Most recent set of scenarios were introduced by the Council in 2016 with focus on climate negotiations.

41

World Energy Scenarios (2016): at glance Are you listening to more than one side of the stor y of energy transition?


Demand peaks for coal and oil

… have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to “Stranded Resources”.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2014 2030 2060

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2014 2030 2060

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2014 2030 2060

Coal Demand(‘000 MTOE)

Oil Demand(mb/d)

Natural Gas Demand(‘000 MTOE or kbcm)

History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Hard Rock

Modern Jazz

Unfinished

SymphonyExpected increase in temperature*Modern Jazz: ~ 3 °CUnfinished Symphony: ~ 2 - 2,3 °CHard Rock: ~ 4 °C IPCC 2°C-Target

* compared to pre-industrial levels

Source: World Energy Council, Paul Scherrer Institut, Accenture Strategy

Global CO 2-Emissions (in bn t)

43

© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil44

Plausible: WEC MJ (Modern Jazz), WEC US (Unfinished

Symphony), WEC HR (Hard Rock), Shell M (Mountain), Shell O

(Ocean), Statoil Rf (Reform), Statoil Rv (Rivalry), Ener-Brown, IEEJ

AT (Advanced Technology)

Outlooks: IEA CP (Current Policies), IEA NP (New Policies), EIA Ref

(Reference), IEEJ Ref (Reference), BP (Evolving Transition), CEPSA

Ref (Reference), Exxon (Reference), Ener-Blue, DNV GL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2014 2030 2060

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

fro

m f

ue

l co

nsu

mp

tio

n [

Gt

CO

2]

Plausible Scenarios

History

WEC MJ

WEC US

WEC HR

Shell M

Shell O

Statoil Rf

Statoil Rv

IEEJ AT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2014 2030 2060

Outlooks

History

IEA CP

IEA NP

EIA Ref

IEEJ Ref

BP ET

CEPSA Ref

Exxon

DNV GL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2014 2030 2060

Normative Scenarios

History

IEA SD

Shell S

Statoil Rn

IRENA 662

EnerGreen

BP EFT

IPCC P1

IPCC P2

IPCC P3

IPCC P4

Normative: IEA SD (Sustainable Development), Shell S (Sky),

Statoil Rn (Renewal), IRENA 662 (66% below 2°C), Ener-Green,

IPCC P1 (Low Energy Demand), IPCC P2 (Sustainability), IPCC P3

(Middle of the Road), IPCC P4 (Fossil-Fuelled Development)

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion


UK

ENERGY TRILEMMA IN 2060

© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil @chwfrei@WECouncil

Energy realities are shifting. Faster than ever.

• The D3 driven transition offers a unique opportunity to achieve more secure, affordable and clean energy for all.

• Electricity is the new oil. The digit is the new battery.

• However: The way to Trilemma heaven needs green liquids.

• 100% energy access can be achieved by 2030.

Act now.

Christoph Frei Generalsekretär des Word Energy Council€¦ · Christoph Frei Generalsekretär des...

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