CHRISTMAS 2016 REVEALED! - Nielsen Christmas... · CHRISTMAS 2016 REVEALED! y. 2 ... Key Highlights...
Transcript of CHRISTMAS 2016 REVEALED! - Nielsen Christmas... · CHRISTMAS 2016 REVEALED! y. 2 ... Key Highlights...
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DID YOU ENJOY CHRISTMAS?
CHRISTMAS SPIRIT WAS HIGH THIS YEAR.
Source: Shopper Watch / Behaviour & Attitudes Jan 2017 Sample = 530
55% 34%
11% A Lot
A little
Not Sure /Much / At all
89%
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DID WE FEED OUR CHRISTMAS
SPIRIT ?
THE STATS REVEALED …
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NEVEN’S CHRISTMAS
SPECIAL
AMONG HIGHEST-RATING
COOKERY PROGRAMMES OF THE YEAR
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3.5 MILLION
TUBS OF CHOCOLATE
+5% year on year
(Nov + Dec 16)
Source: Nielsen Scantrack total trade 9 weeks Data to Jan 1st 17
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Key Highlights slide 621,000
BOTTLES of CHAMPAGNE &
SPARKLING WINE
+18% year on year 14% of Full year sales in the two weeks of
Christmas
(Nov + Dec 16)
Source: Nielsen Total Off Trade Data to Dec 16
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Key Highlights slide
90 MILLION
PINTS ENJOYED IN PUBS
+2.4% year on year
(Nov+Dec 16)
Source: Nielsen Total Off Trade Data to Dec 16
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€4 MILLION
ON STUFFING AND BREADCRUMBS
35% OF THE TOTAL YEAR
(Nov + Dec 16)
Source: Nielsen Scantrack total trade 8 weeks Data to Dec 25th
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WE LAUGHED!
# 1 Program Christmas Day
700,000 viewers
Source: TAM Ireland Ltd / Nielsen TAM / Individuals 4+, National, Consolidated. Average audience 000s / Top Programme ranking 25th December 2016, All Channels
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS STABLE AT THE END OF 2016
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey – ROI Q4, 2016
65 60
65
77
90 99 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q42010
Q42011
Q42012
Q42013
Q42014
Q42015
Q42016
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
STABLE
JOB PROSPECTS
PERSONAL FINANCES
READINESS TO SPEND
46%
45%
37%
56%
53%
44%
Q4 2014 Q4 2015
52%
42%
58%
Q4 2016
% responding Excellent /Good
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CONCERNS CHANGE FROM FINANCIAL WORRIES TO QUALITY OF LIFE AND PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey – ROI Q4, 2016
Q4 2015 Q4 2016
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TOTAL MEDIA
+8%
TOTAL
BUZZ WAS HIGH AS OVERALL ADVERTISING SPEND WAS UP, DRIVEN BY THE RETAILERS Advertising Spend % Year on Year Change
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix – Nov-Dec 2016 / Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)
FMCG based on Defined set including Food, Drink, Cosmetics & Toiletries, Household, Petcare, Tobaccco & Accessories
Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
+11%
FMCG RETAILERS
-6%
FMCG MANUFACTURERS
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55%
Will continue to switch to cheaper grocery
brands once conditions improve (-5%)
48%
Will cut down on out of home entertainment
(+4%)
BUT CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SAVINGS
Put any spare cash into savings (+1%)
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey – ROI Q4, 2016
42%
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+1.4% +0.6% +2.0%
+1.5% -0.1% +1.4% MARKET EXCL TOBACCO
TOTAL MARKET
NO
VD
EC 1
6
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Total Defined Market Read| MAT to Dec 2016
Volume Price Value
POSITIVE SENTIMENT & BUZZ DRIVES CHRISTMAS GROWTH - AHEAD OF FULL YEAR
+0.8% +0.3% +1.2% MARKET EXCL TOBACCO
+0.8% +1.1% +1.8% TOTAL MARKET
MA
T 2
01
6
FMCG Market Performance, Year on Year % Change
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Recession Recovery Stability?
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , Total Defined Market Read| 2010 – 2016 , * based on 12 weeks performance, all others based on NovDec periods.
Total FMCG Market Performance 2009 - 2016
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN 2016 ON BACK OF STRONG 2015.
1%
4.5%
-1.0% -0.5%
-3.0%
1.0%
3.2%
1.4%
-6.80%
6.4%
-0.1% 0.0%
1.4%
3.2% 2.0%
-7%
-6%
-4%
-3%
-1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
7%
8%
Volume % Change
Value % Change
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3.6%
2.9%
0.3%
4.9%
2.5%
1.4%
3.2%
4.5%
3.1%
3.6%
5.2%
5.9%
ALCOHOL
CONFECTIONERY
GROCERY
2WKS 4 WkS 8 Wks MAT
3 BIG SEASONAL CATEGORIES DRIVE POSITIVE PERFORMANCE Category Value Performance Year on Year % Change ,NovDec Incremental €
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data Inc Dunnes and Discounters Data Week Ending 25th Dec 2016, Defined Total Market NovDec16, EXC TOBACCO
49% OF INCREMENTAL € +€12.7M
24% OF INCREMENTAL € +€6.1M
23% OF INCREMENTAL € +€6.1M
TOP 3 CATEGORIES ACCOUNT FOR 76% NOVDEC SALES
CONFECTIONERY
ALCOHOL
GROCERY
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0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.9%
0.9%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
2.9%
1.8%
3.8%
3.4%
5.9%
4.7%
FROZEN
HEALTH & BEAUTY
HOUSEHOLD
BAKERY
2WKS 4 WkS 8 Wks MAT
HOUSEHOLD
HEALTH &BEAUTY
BAKERY
FROZEN
NON SEASONAL CATEGORIES SAW GROWTH PRIMARILY IN DECEMBER
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data Inc Dunnes and Discounters Data Week Ending 25th Dec 2016, Defined Total Market NovDec16, EXCL TOBACCO
Category Value Performance Year on Year % Change ,NovDec Incremental €
ONLY HOUSEHOLD GROWS IN NOVDEC16
+€934k
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ALCOHOL FEATURES HEAVILY AMONGST TOP WINNING SECTORS
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Defined Market Data NovDec 2016
€0.62
€0.82
€0.92
€1.09
€1.19
€1.21
€1.23
€1.48
€1.56
€1.58
€1.85
€1.88
€1.91
€1.92
€2.03
€2.73
€3.63
€3.71
€4.08
€7.83
TOILET TISSUES
PREPACKED BACON
CRISPS/SNACKS/TUBES
BAKERY
CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS
MILK
IGNITION PRODUCTS
CONFECTIONERY
SPARKLING WINES
GIN
VODKA
PREPACKED SLICED MEAT
WHISKEY
SPECIAL DIETARY PRODUCTS
SPORT/ENERGY
TABLE WINES
MINERAL WATERS
LOOSE TOBACCO
LONG ALCOHOL
CIGARETTES
TOP 20 Sectors of Incremental Sales €m Nov-Dec 2016 vs 2015
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48.6
34.1
17.2
45.5
36.4
18.1 MULTIPLES &DUNNES
CONVENIENCE
DISCOUNTERS
MULTIPLES RETURN TO GROWTH AND WIN BACK SHARE
-0.5%
+4.0%
+3.6%
MAT +1.8%
+1.1% +€10.3M
+3.6% +€23M
+1.4% +€4.6M
NOVDEC16 +2.0%
Multiples return to share level of last year
Total Defined Market Value, Incl Tobacco, Share by Channel and % Change
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Defined Market Data NovDec 2016
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CHRISTMAS 2016 IN SUMMARY
ADVERTISING
Dial down of price/value message, focus on the
family, friends & connections. Tesco biggest growth / biggest change.
RETAILERS Return to growth for Multiples, continued
strong performance for Convenience.
CATEGORIES Alcohol delivered half of all incremental value,
and 72% of multiples growth, where promotions key to drive footfall.
THE TROLLEY TURF WAR
This year all retailers decide to create a
Christmas Story
as their main TV spot.
2016 Christmas ads were
• heart warming • family & friends • community /
customer focused
All Christmas ads launched in the first week of November Tesco – 1th Nov, Aldi – 7th Nov, Lidl -11 Nov, M&S – 11th Nov
Along the main story the retailers release
short 10-30 seconds offers spots that are
integrated with their main Christmas campaign.
CHRISTMAS ADS BUILD STRONG SENSE OF CONNECTION AND TOGETHERNESS
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42%
41%
8%
6% 2%
1%
TV
Press
Outdoor
Radio
Digital Display
Cinema
TV & PRESS WERE THE RETAILERS’ TOP MEDIAS OF CHOICE (83%) Outdoor, albeit off a smaller base also saw growth.
+11% +11%
1%
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec ‘16 – Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)/ Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters. Digital is Display & VOD ONLY – 25 Suppliers, no Search or Social
+13%
Media Type SHARE OF
SPEND Nov-Dec ‘16
Top Medias YOY % Change Nov-Dec ‘16
1. TV +11%
2. Press +5% 14%
3. Outdoor +80%
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21% 20% 15% 12% 5% 28% 20%
DISCOUNTERS SHARES
48% SPEND VS
17% TRADE
28%
35% 48% 47%
27%
55% 48%
47% 34% 40%
50%
32% 43%
10% 11% 5% 12%
2% 11% 11%
Lidl Tesco Aldi Dunnes Supervalu M&S
Cinema
Digital Display
Radio
Outdoor
Press
TV
TV WAS #1 CHOICE OF MEDIA FOR ALL RETAILERS BAR DUNNES & LIDL – THE BIGGEST SPENDER Retailers Media Mix Nov-Dec 2016
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec 2016 – Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)/ Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters. Digital is Display & VOD ONLY – 25 Suppliers, no Search or Social
-13%
Retailers SHARE OF SPEND Nov-Dec ‘16
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Total Retailers
Lidl Ireland
Tesco Ireland
Aldi Stores
Dunnes Stores
Supervalu
Marks & Spencer
-18.3
STRONG GROWTH IN SPEND FROM TOP THREE RETAILERS
+11%
28%
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec ‘16 – Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)/ Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
% Change YOY
-12.8
16.5
37.5
11.5
28.3
-1.8
Retailers Growth in Ad Spend Nov-Dec ‘16
LIDL
ALDI
TESCO
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7%
TRADITIONAL MEDIA REMAINS AN IMPORTANT WAY TO LEARN ABOUT RETAILER PROMOTIONS.
Radio
13% Newspapers
23% TV
Q9. How do you normally find out about supermarket offers and promotions over the Christmas period?
8% Magazines
NIELSEN IRELAND Christmas Shopper Report 2016 (Base n = 250)
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GETTING IMPACTFUL TV CREATIVE CRUCIAL AT CHRISTMAS
The average person watched over 3 hours of TV every day in November & December
TV reached over
3 million people daily November &
December
Source: TAM Ireland Ltd / Nielsen TAM Based on Individuals 4+ / National / ROI Commercial Channels Nov/Dec average based on 01/11/2016 – 31/12/2016
Consumers were
exposed to 2,397 different TV ads in
November & December
59% of those ads
were new to 2016
21% of all TV
advertising campaigns were in
November & December
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THE KEY TO CHRISTMAS IS EMOTION Up to 70% of advertising ROI is driven by CREATIVE
SUPERVALU
‘Real Food, Real People’ local and Irish.
TESCO – NEW
‘Here’s to the Host’ The Heroes of Christmas, friends/family/community.
ALDI - NEW
‘Kevin the Carrot’ ads humour to 2015 ‘My Favourite Things’
M&S – NEW
‘Christmas with Love’ warm and humorous.
LIDL
‘Share More Special Moments’ the whole family.
Driving emotions & encouraging memory activation are the best ways to drive action (purchase behaviour)
DUNNES
‘Make Christmas’ Make ‘special’, ‘believe’, ‘magic’.
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-1.8
5.8
-0.5
3.6
MULTIPLES & DUNNES
DISCOUNTERS
Value % Chg
Unit % Chg
DESPITE HEAVY WEIGHT MEDIA SPEND, DISCOUNTERS GROWTH SLOWS AND MULTIPLES RECOVER
MAT 2016
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Total Defined Market Read| data to Dec 2016
Volume Unit and Value % Change MAT vs NOVDEC 16.
MU
LIP
LEST
+ D
UN
NES
D
ISC
OU
NTE
RS
1.1
2.6
1.1
1.4
NOVDEC 16
GROWTH DECCELERATION
GROWTH ACCELERATION
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PRICE CHANGE MAT 2016
Price
+1.1%
-2.0%
DEFLATION AND A NARROWING PRICE PERFORMANCE GAP DRIVES FOOTFALL INTO THE MULTIPLES AT CHRISTMAS
PRICE CHANGE NOVDEC 16
-1.2%
-0.1%
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Total Defined Market Read| data to Dec 2016
ROI Defined Market (Excl Tobacco) Average price % Change MAT Vs NOVDEC.
MU
LTIP
LES
+ D
UN
NES
D
ISC
OU
NTE
RS
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ALCOHOL
GROCERY
HOUSEHOLD
BAKERY
CONFECTIONERY
4 KEY CATEGORIES DRIVE MULTIPLES CHRISTMAS GROWTH Value % Change by Category MAT Vs NOVDEC.
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Category Read| data to Dec 2016
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
Only Alcohol performs better
Christmas vs MAT
+4.2%
+1.2%
+0.5%
NOVDEC
-0.4%
+0.9%
HEALTH& BEAUTY -2.3%
+2.1%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-2.5%
MAT
-0.3%
-1.8%
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12.7%
13.3%
10.0%
8.8%
11.6%
8.0%
14.3%
15.4%
48.6%
45.5%
NO
VD
ECM
AT
GROCERY CONFECTIONERY
ALCOHOL ALL OTHER
+1.2% pts
+3.6% pts
Value Share and SHARE Change MAT VS NOVDEC 16
5.5%
6.1%
4.0%
3.8%
2.5%
2.5%
5.3%
5.8%
17.2%
18.1%
NO
VD
ECM
AT
GROCERY CONFECTIONERY
ALCOHOL ALL OTHER
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
ALCOHOL AND CONFECTIONERY THE BIG DRIVERS OF SHARE WIN BACK FOR MULTIPLES OVER CHRISTMAS
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Category Read| data to Dec 2016
DISCOUNTERS
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ALCOHOL – THE BIG WINNER IN MULTIPLES
+4.2% = €9.1M incremental sales in Mults+Dunnes 72% of total incremental sales
PREMIUM SPIRITS
GR
OW
TH D
RIV
ERS
GIN +29%, +€1.7M
WHISKEY +4%, +1.8M
SPARKLING +20%, +€1.7M
TABLE WINE +1%, +€1.2M
WINE
LAGER +5%, +€1.9M
ALE +12%, +0.3M
BEER
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner, ROI Alcohol Read| NovDec 2016
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-1,237
-87
-73
-37
-31
-20
10
26
147
252
276
353
381
616
1,145
FRUIT JUICE
CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS
SQUASHES & CORDIALS
GRANOLA BARS
CHEWING GUM
CHOCOLATE BUSCUITS
NUTS
SPORT/ENERGY
POPCORN
PREPARED / SAVOURY DIPS
ICE CREAM
CRISPS/SNACKS/TUBES
BISCUITS
CONFECTIONERY
MINERAL WATERS
Incremental Value €K NOVDEC 16 Vs 2015
DISCOUNTERS PERFORMS AHEAD IN CONFECTIONERY
DISCOUNTERS
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner, ROI Confectionery Read| NOV DEC 2016
MULTS + DUNNES
-1,435
279
-32
-532
-36
-31
-439
528
169
-194
158
-78
-614
351 1,098
-0.4% +2.3%
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Hands up who didn’t buy one of
these tubs?!
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1
2
3
1.5M
3.1M
2.7M
2.7M
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Nuts +4%, Special Dietary +81%
Nut/Seed Butter +28%, Honey +6%
The Balance
Source: Nielsen Multiples Excl Dunnes 8 weeks Data to Dec 25th 2016 *Nielsen Multiples TSR, 4 w/e 25th Dec 2016 vs LY
Cake Decorations +6%, Flour +1% Baking Products +2%, Butter +7%
In Preparation
Chilled Poultry,+6%, Smoked Salmon, +5%*
Cranberry Sauce +6%, PrePack Bacon, +11%
PrePack Stuffing +5%, Tinfoil +8%
Stocks/Gravys/Extracts +13%
The Feast
say reduced their spend vs.
last year
shopped in Supermarkets they
had NOT considered before
shopped
wherever the price was right
43% 21% 38%
Source: Nielsen Shopper Study: Total Respondents: 250 | Time Range: Jan 28th and 29th 2017
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ALCOHOL
GROCERY
HOUSEHOLD
BAKERY
CONFECTIONERY
INCREASED SPEND ON PROMOTION A KEY DRIVER OF MULTIPLES GROWTH Value % Change by Category MAT Vs NOVDEC.
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
+4.2%
+1.2%
+0.5%
NOVDEC
-0.4%
+0.9%
+2.1%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-2.5%
MAT
-0.3%
HEALTH & BEAUTY -2.3% -1.8%
PROMO VALUE*
+9.2%
-2.1%
+26%
+0.8%
+17%
+15%
FULL PRICE VALUE *
-2.0%
+2.8%
-9%
+1.6%
-7.5%
-15%
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , ROI Category Read| data to Dec 2016 | * Nielsen Multiples Excl Dunnes 8 weeks to Dec 25th
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-1.6%
1.0%
4.6%
-0.1%
1.3%
3.3%
5.1%
1.2%
JAN-OCT NOV-DEC JAN-OCT NOV-DEC
BRANDS PRIVATE LABEL
MULTIPLES (Excl Dunnes) DISCOUNTERS
AND MULTIPLES GREW AHEAD IN BOTH BRAND AND PRIVATE LABEL (BUT PL PERFORMED AHEAD OF BRANDS)
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data Week Ending 25th Dec 2016, excludes Wine and Tobacco
Brand & Private Label Value % Chg
ALCOHOL
HOUSEHOLD
BAKERY
CONFECTIONERY
+1%
+3%
-11%
-9%
+8%
HEALTH& BEAUTY
-1% GROCERY
VALUE % CHANGE
BRANDS IN DISCOUNTERS 8 Weeks to Dec 25th
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2016
EFFECTIVE & IMPACTFUL ADVERTISING CAN HELP BRANDS DEFEND AGAINST PRIVATE LABEL
Top 10 FMCG brands Nov-Dec
1. Coca Cola
2. Heineken Lager
3. Guinness
4. Smithwicks
5. Carlsberg Lager
6. Knorr Soup Range
7. Schweppes Tonic
8. Lucozade Energy Drink
9. Cadbury Dairy Milk
10. Head & Shoulders
1. Coca Cola
2. Heineken Lager
3. Carlsberg Lager
4. Hop House 13
5. Ferrero Raffaello
6. Pepsi 7Up Free
7. Budweiser Beer
8. Jameson Irish Whiskey
9. Ferrero Rocher
10. Kenco Coffee
1. Coca Cola
2. Carlsberg Lager
3. Guinness
4. Coors Light
5. Heineken Lager
6. Cadbury Dairy Milk
7. Budweiser Beer
8. Erin Dine Ins
9. Lyons Tea
10. Kelloggs Cornflakes
2014 2015
Source: Nielsen All Media AdDynamix Nov-Dec ‘16 / Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema), FMCG based on Defined set
Appear in Top in NOVDEC
only
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ALCOHOL BRANDS DRIVE MULTIPLES GROWTH TOP 20 INCREMENTAL BRANDS, VALUE €K
247k
696k
HOP HOUSE 13
ZIP
DANONE LIGHT &…
FIRE & SMOKE
PALMOLIVE
DENNY
CLONAKILTY
ALPRO
LENOR
LUCOZADE
FULFIL
CADBURY DAIRY MILK
HAAGEN DAZS
ORCHARD THIEVES
HENNESSY
CUSHELLE
HEINEKEN
FAIRY
POWERS
JAMESON
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data , 8 Week Ending 25th Dec 2016
NEW LISTINGS
MULTIPLES (Excl Dunnes) DISCOUNTERS
141k
855k
JACOBS ELITE
MF M&M'S
KENCO
SHLOER
KOPPARBERG
MF GALAXY
BATCHELORS
NESTLE QUALITY…
PERRI
CADBURY
O HARAS
IRWINS
PRINGLES
DAIRYGOLD
NESTLE COOKIE CRISP
BARRYS
DORITOS
AVONMORE
TROLLI
APTAMIL
NEW LISTINGS
op
THE BASKET BATTLE
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38%
35%
20%
4% 4% TV
Press
Radio
Digital Display
Outdoor
RADIO IS AN IMPORTANT CHOICE OF MEDIA FOR CONVENIENCE RETAILERS (20% VS 6% MULTIPLES & DISCOUNTERS)
1%
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec ‘16 – Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)/ Convenience includes: Centra, Spar, ADM Londis, Costcutter, Mace, Topaz, Daybreak Stores, Applegreen, Quik Pick. Digital is Display & VOD ONLY – 25 Suppliers, no Search or Social
Media Type SHARE OF
SPEND Nov-Dec ‘16
Top Medias YOY % Change Nov-Dec ‘16
1. TV -22%
2. Press +45%
TV and Press # 1 choice
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GROWTH IN CENTRA, COSTCUTTER & TOPAZ SPEND SEES CONVENIENCE MEDIA SPEND INCREASE THIS CHRISTMAS
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec ‘16 – Includes All Media (TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio, Outdoor, Digital Display & Cinema)/ Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
Total Retailers
Centra
Spar
Londis
Costcutter
Mace
Topaz
% Change YOY
-38.0
-17.1
-29.9
13.5
90.2
Press top choice for Centra - 38% total AdSpend
TV top for Spar - 67% of total AdSpend
TV top for Londis - 63% of total AdSpend
Convenience Growth in Ad Spend Nov-Dec ‘16
57.5
24.0
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34.1%
84.5%
36.2% 34.3%
16.7% 21.4% 18.4% 10.1%
CONVENIENCE GROWS ACROSS ALL KEY SEASONAL CATEGORIES
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner, ROI Convenience Read| NovDec 2016
Convenience Category Value Share of Total Market & % Change Year on Year
Excl Tobacco Growth
+2.2% +€9M
NOVDEC 16 % Chge Vs LY +3.6% +3.4% 6.2% +3.2% +1.5% -0.5% +1.4% -1.7%
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167k
685k
CADBURY BOOST
TAYTO
7 UP
MF GALAXY
RED BULL
COCA COLA ZERO
POWERS
VIT HIT
CADBURY DAIRY MILK
HUNKY DORYS
DENNY
ORCHARD THIEVES
BALLYGOWAN
EXTRA
ZIP
JAMESON
MONSTER
SMIRNOFF
LUCOZADE
FULFIL
CONFECTIONERY BRANDS DOMINATING GROWTH IN CONVENIENCE TOP 20 INCREMENTAL € VALUE BRANDS IN CONVENIENCE
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data , Convenience (Symbols + Forecourts + Specialists) 8 Week Ending 25th Dec 2016
1,548k
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NI MARKET SEES STRONGEST GROWTH THIS CHRISTMAS
Source: ROI :Nielsen Total Defined Market Growth NOVDEC 16. NI Nielsen Scantrack TSR Grocery Multiples (excl General Merchandise and Fresh Food) UK: Nielsen Scantrack TSR Grocery Multiples (Including General Merchandise) 12 weeks to 31st December 2016 vs year ago
Volume
Value
+1.4%
+2.0%
+3.3%
+5.5%
+0.7%
+1.4%
FMCG Market Performance, NOVDEC Year on Year % Change
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PERFORMANCE GAP BETWEEN THE MARKETS NARROWS IN THE WEEKS TO CHRISTMAS BUT VERY STRONG CHRISTMAS WEEK IN NI
• Source: Nielsen NI Multiples & ROI Multiples excl Dunnes, 4 weekly Sales data Total Store Read– data to Nov 6th 2016
4 Week Rolling
TOTAL FMCG (Incl Fresh) - NI & ROI - MULTIPLES MARKET VALUE - YR ON YR % CHANGE
4.0
0.5
8.5
6.4
0.0
-1.7
3.7
0.2
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
% C
HA
NG
E
TOTAL MULTIPLES(NI)
TOTAL MULTIPLES(ROI)
BREXIT
€1.42 €1.36
€1.32 €1.28 €1.26 €1.28 €1.30
€1.20 €1.18 €1.18 €1.15 €1.11
€1.16 €1.17 €1.16
Monthly Exchange Rate
£:€
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4 weeks to Dec 25th 16
4 weeks to Nov 6th 16
ROI WINS BACK SHARE IN RUN UP TO CHRISTMAS
Pre Brexit Avg Jan – June 16
+0.8%
-0.8%
* Based on constant exchange rate of €1.32: £1
Total IOI Multiples Market
Source: Nielsen NI Multiples & ROI Multiples excl Dunnes, 4 weekly Sales data Total Store Read– data to Jan 1st 2017
61.0%
39.0%
62.3%
37.7%
61.5%
38.5%
MULTIPLES ONLY – NI & ROI MARKET VALUE SHARE - TOTAL IOI
% Share Change VS PRE BREXIT
of Irish shoppers say they start their Christmas
Grocery shop before December
Completed their main grocery shop in
Christmas week
54% 68%
Source: Nielsen Shopper Study: Total Respondents: 250 | Time Range: Jan 28th and 29th 2017
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163.5
187.8 214.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
CHRISTMAS DAY FALLING ON SUNDAY DRIVES BIG CHRISTMAS WEEK BUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FINAL 3 WEEKS UNCHANGED
Christmas Day:
Source: Nielsen ROI Multiples + Dunnes + Discounters, all categories excl lTobacco
All categories behave similarly
Sale
s V
alu
e €
M
+14% +14% Value % Change
3 wk contribution to NovDec:
36.0% 36.5% 36.6%
CHRISTMAS 2017
Christmas day falls on Monday
The TWO full weeks before Christmas will be KEY to delivering strong sales …
Time and optimise ATL & BTL spend to drive sales.
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WHAT CAN DRIVE SUCCESS IN CHRISTMAS 2017?
Generate Emotion to stimulate memory and
action.
Create a Plan that builds to the final
two weeks.
ADVERTISING
Secondary displays & in-store
activation to grow sales. Integrate
with ATL.
Find the right promo price point timed to hit final
two weeks.
PRICE & PROMO
MUST be on shelf in the final two
weeks.
Discounters opportunity in key
sectors.
DISTRIBUTION
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06
-No
v-1
6
08
-No
v-1
6
10
-No
v-1
6
12
-No
v-1
6
14
-No
v-1
6
16
-No
v-1
6
18
-No
v-1
6
20
-No
v-1
6
22
-No
v-1
6
24
-No
v-1
6
26
-No
v-1
6
28
-No
v-1
6
30
-No
v-1
6
02
-De
c-1
6
04
-De
c-1
6
06
-De
c-1
6
08
-De
c-1
6
10
-De
c-1
6
12
-De
c-1
6
14
-De
c-1
6
16
-De
c-1
6
18
-De
c-1
6
20
-De
c-1
6
22
-De
c-1
6
24
-De
c-1
6
26
-De
c-1
6
28
-De
c-1
6
30
-De
c-1
6
01
-Jan
-17
Lidl Ireland Gmbh
Tesco Ireland
Aldi Stores Ltd
Dunnes Stores Ltd
Supervalu
Marks & Spencer
CREATE A MEDIA PLAN THAT BUILDS TO THE FINAL 2 WEEKS
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix Nov-Dec 2016 – Includes TV excluding UTV NI & CH4 NI, Press, Radio / Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters.
Retailers weekly AdSpend
Nov & Dec ’16 Spend: 16% of FMCG & 30% of Retailer's annual AdSpend for 2016
Top 5 FMCG Cats weekly AdSpend
06
-No
v-1
6
08
-No
v-1
6
10
-No
v-1
6
12
-No
v-1
6
14
-No
v-1
6
16
-No
v-1
6
18
-No
v-1
6
20
-No
v-1
6
22
-No
v-1
6
24
-No
v-1
6
26
-No
v-1
6
28
-No
v-1
6
30
-No
v-1
6
02
-Dec
-16
04
-Dec
-16
06
-Dec
-16
08
-Dec
-16
10
-Dec
-16
12
-Dec
-16
14
-Dec
-16
16
-Dec
-16
18
-Dec
-16
20
-Dec
-16
22
-Dec
-16
24
-Dec
-16
26
-Dec
-16
28
-Dec
-16
30
-Dec
-16
01
-Jan
-17
Alcoholic Drinks
Beauty Aids & Cosmetics
Hair Products
Confectionery & Snacks
Soft Drinks
Weekly breakout includes only ROI TV, Press & Radio Only
Key 2 wks
1
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RETAILERS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE WIDENS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER DIGITAL FORUMS
NIELSEN IRELAND Christmas Shopper Report 2016 (Base n = 250)
34%
33%
30%
26%
19%
10%
8%
6%
5%
Retailer loyalty card vouchers and mailers
Leaflets through the door
Supermarket websites
A supermarket flyer/newsletter picked up when in-store
Word of mouth
Retailer alerts (when you sign-up to receive emailsfrom a retailer)
Social media / twitter
Price comparison websites
Internet forums
Q9. How do you normally find out about supermarket offers and promotions over the Christmas period?
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WHAT CAN DRIVE SUCCESS IN CHRISTMAS 2017?
Generate Emotion to stimulate memory and
action.
Create a Plan that builds to the final
two weeks.
ADVERTISING
Secondary displays & in-store
activation to grow sales. Integrate
with ATL.
Find the right promo price point timed to hit final
two weeks.
PRICE & PROMO
MUST be on shelf in the final two
weeks.
Discounters opportunity in key
sectors.
DISTRIBUTION
Generate Emotion to stimulate memory and
action.
Create a Plan that builds to the final
two weeks.
ADVERTISING
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2016 INSTORE ACTIVITY
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CREATE NOISE IN STORE WITH VISUAL IMPACT
Source: Nielsen Europe, MPA + Event Analysis, Benchmark Database
In Store Activation
Category
+2% to +6%
Brand
+4% to +14%
Secondary Displays
Category
+2.8%
Brand
+11.8%
In Store Sampling
Category
+6.6%
Brand
+31.4%
Incremental sales as a direct result of the in store activity in those stores.
How much incremental value can you expect?
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WHAT CAN DRIVE SUCCESS IN CHRISTMAS 2017?
Generate Emotion to stimulate memory and
action.
Create a Plan that builds to the final
two weeks.
ADVERTISING
Secondary displays & in-store
activation to grow sales. Integrate
with ATL.
Find the right promo price point timed to hit final
two weeks.
PRICE & PROMO
MUST be on shelf in the final two
weeks.
Discounters opportunity in key
sectors.
DISTRIBUTION
Secondary displays & in-store
activation to grow sales. Integrate
with ATL.
Find the right promo price point timed to hit final
two weeks.
PRICE & PROMO
Generate Emotion to stimulate memory and
action.
Create a Plan that builds to the final
two weeks.
ADVERTISING
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RETAILER ADVERTISING MESSAGES HITTING DIFFERENT THEMES ON PRICE, IRISH, QUALITY, FAMILY TIME
Lidl: ‘Share More Special Moments’
#ShareMore Emotional ad set in rural Ireland showing family get-together to the tune of ‘Have Yourself a Merry Little (LIDL) Christmas’
KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 - LIDL
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017
Product offer spot incorporated into the main theme
1 minute spot
20 seconds spot
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Lidl: ‘Homecoming’
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RETAILER ADVERTISING MESSAGES HITTING DIFFERENT THEMES ON PRICE, IRISH, QUALITY, FAMILY TIME
Aldi: ‘Kevin the Carrot’ #KevinTheCarrot
Creative and funny series of Ad episodes telling the festive adventures of Kevin the Carrot using rhymes and the well know tune from ‘Home Alone’
KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 - ALDI
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017 20 seconds up to 1 minute spots
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Aldi: ‘Kevin The Carrot’
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KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 - TESCO Tesco: ‘Here’s To The Host’ Campaign
#ToTheHosts Innovative campaign putting the hosts - ‘the unsung heroes of Christmas’ in the spotlight and featuring 35 different spots of letters to the hosts
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017
Product offers spots integrated within the main theme
1 minute spot
10 seconds spot
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Tesco: ‘Here’s To The Hosts’
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Dunnes: ‘Make Christmas’ #MakeChristmas
Continues with their beautiful 2014 campaign showing how Dickens’s Christmas Carol is still relevant in modern context
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017
KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 – DUNNES STORES
Short spots encourage to ‘make the savings that make Christmas’
40 seconds ad
30 seconds ad
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Dunnes Stores: ‘Make Christmas’
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Supervalu: ‘Real Food, Real People’ Story spots celebrating ‘local and Irish’ this Christmas featuring festive preparation of SV customers and suppliers in a series of heart-warming ads
Supervalu: ‘Fill your trolley with Value’ Offer spots promoting local food and Irish suppliers
KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 - SUPERVALU
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017
1 minute spot
10 seconds spot
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Supervalu: ‘Real Food, Real People’
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KEY TV CAMPAIGNS CHRISTMAS 2016 M&S: ‘Christmas with Love’
#LoveMrsClaus A warm, touching and humorous story of Mrs Claus, who saves Christmas
M&S: ‘Christmas with Love’ Creative series of Ads about being creative with food
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix 2017
1 minute spot
30 seconds spot
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M&S: ‘Christmas with Love’
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PRINTED CHRISTMAS ADS – SOME INTEGRATED AND REINFORCING THE TV SPOTS MESSAGE …