Christians Science Climate Religion 2014 2015 surveys

New Survey Data: Christians, Science, Climate Change, Env. Policy, & Religion

Aaron S. Routhe, Ph.D.Tuesday Lunch SeminarHarvey Mudd College, Claremont CA

Tuesday, 28 April 201512:00 – 1:00 pm, Room 3481

3 Recent Survey Data Releases

1. 2014 Feb: Religion and Public Life Program (RPLP), Rice University & American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

2. 2014 Nov: Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI)

3. 2015 Mar: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC)*

[*see note pane for further information]

1. Religious Understandings of Science study (RPLP 2014)

Mixed-method: surveys, in-depth interviews

Survey sample: >10K respondents, adults 18+ (63% original RR), bilingual N=9,138 Final analysis sample N=8,564 Non-scientists (95%) N=2,149 Evangelical Protestants* (23%)

Dates: Dec. 2013 – Jan. 2014. (survey)

1. Religious Understandings of Science study (RPLP 2014)

In-depth Interviews (N=315): Houston / Chicago White Evangelical* (large) = 19 / 14 White Evangelical (small) = 25 / 14 Low SES White evangelical = 11 / 0 White Mainline = 25 / 13 White Catholic = 15 / 0 Latino Protestant = 09 / 0 Latino Catholic = 10 / 20 African American Evan. (+SES) = 15 / 0 African American Evan. (-SES) = 20 / 15

2. Religion, Values, & Climate Change survey (PRRI)

Sample: 3,022 bilingual US 18+ adults (English, Spanish) phone interviews

Dates: Sept. 18 – Oct. 8, 2014

Margin of error: +/- 2.4 percentage points, 95% confidence level

3. Climate Change in American Christian Minds survey (YPCCC)

Sample: 1,263 Adults (18+)

Dates: February 27 – March 10, 2015

Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level


Survey examines CC beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, policy preferences, moral values

Reporting for 3 major religious groups: Born Again/ Evangelical Christians Non-Evangelical Protestants Catholics


Respondents’ religion categories based on… What is your religion? Would you describe yourself as “born

again” or “evangelical”?*

Religious sub-group samples: n=311 “Born-Again/Evangelicals” n=225 “Protestant Non-Evangelical ” n=299 “Catholic”

Christians’ Views on: Science

Science Information Seeking (RPLP 2014)

“Very likely” to read full story in newspaper, website about new scientific discovery 20% Evangelical Protestants Mainline Prot. (24%) , Catholics (25%), All (25%)

“Very interested” in scientific discoveries 21% Evangelical Protestants Mainline Prot. (28%) , Catholics (31%), All (31%)

Science Authority (RPLP 2014)

“Very likely” – to consult about science questions…

(Evan. Prot., Evan. Prot. Scientist, All) Internet: 24%, 33%, 30% Friend/family: 17%, 07%, 15% Scientific magazine: 14%, 12%, 16% Person w/science job: 14%, 28%, 14% Scientific magazine: 14%, 12%, 16% Local teacher: 11%, 06%, 09% Religious text: 11%, 03%, 05% Religious leader: 10%, 03%, 04% Book by PhD scientist: 08%, 18%, 10% Other congregants: 07%, 04%, 03%

Confidence in Scientists (RPLP 2014)

“I believe that the goal is objectivity, but I believe that scientists, just like I am, are human, subject

to the same temptations that our faith talks about – greed, ego, vanity, narcissism, all of that.

But I believe that what they believe in as scientists is objectivity. The greatest insult that you can give a scientist is that he skewed his

research to obtain a pre‐desired result.”

– Presbyterian respondent, small conservative church (Houston)

American Christians (YPCCC 2015)

97% climate scientists…who believe “global warming is happening, at least partly human caused” (Cook 2013)

Religious public…who believe “most scientists think human-caused global warming is happening” 29% Born-again/Evangelicals Non-evangelical Protestants (39%), Catholics (40%)

Religious public…who believe “there is a lot of disagreement among climate scientists” 37% Born-again/Evangelicals Non-evangelical Protestants (35%), Catholics (37%)


Who say they “Need a LOT MORE information to form a firm opinion about global warming” 26% Born-again Evangelicals Non-Evangelicals (23%) , Catholics (17%)

Who say they “Need NO MORE information to form a firm opinion about global warming” 35% Born-again Evangelicals Non-Evangelicals (22%), Catholics (19%)

Christians’ Views on: Climate Change

PRRI survey – 2014 Nov

Categorizes respondents by beliefs about climate change existence and causes into 3 groups…

46% “Believers” - earth is getting warmer primarily because of human activity

25% “Sympathizers” - global temperature is rising, but primarily natural variation, or uncertain cause

26% “Skeptics*” - no solid evidence earth’s temperature is rising Most frequently cited reason why (33%) - they have not

noticed much change in their local weather

White Evangelicals (PRRI)

Stark differences by religious affiliation, race in climate change beliefs, concern

Black vs. White evangelical Protestants: Believers - 50% vs. 27 % Sympathizers - 32% vs. 29% Skeptics - 16% vs. 39%

YPCCC : ‘6 Americas’ on CC

Categorizes respondents into 6 audience segments by… global warming beliefs, involvement with it, public policy preferences, and personal behaviors.

2008: “Dismissive” (7%); “Doubtful” (11%)

YPCCC : ‘6 Americas’

‘Doubtful’ (YPCCC 2008)

More likely than average to be… older, better educated, higher income, white

men

Tend to be Republicans Hold strongly individualistic values

More likely than average to identify as “born again” or evangelical Christians

Very likely to prefer economic growth over environmental protection

‘Dismissive’ (YPCCC 2008)

More likely than average to be… high income, well-educated, white

men

Much more likely to be… very conservative Republicans

Hold strongly traditional religious beliefs,

Most likely to be evangelical Christian

Other surveys : Pew 2008 April

“IT’S NATURALLY WARMING”

“NO SOLID EVIDENCE” OF CC

18 % U.S. public

16% White Evan. Prots.

26% Church > 1 time/week

16% Republican

21% Republican college

15% Midwest

21% U.S. public

33% White Evan. Prots.

25% Church > 1 time/week

42% Republican

43% Republican college

25% Midwest


Who think “global warming is happening”… 69% Catholics 62% Non-evangelical Protestants

Born-again/Evangelicals who… 51% Think global warming is

happening 27% Don’t think it is 23% Don’t know


Believe “Global warming caused mostly…by human activities vs. natural changes”

41% vs. 37% Born-again/Evangelicals 50% vs. 35% Non-evangelical

Protestants 57% vs. 33% Catholics

Christians’ Views on:Environmental (Climate) Policy

Climate change risk (PRRI 2014) Believe will be personally harmed

great deal 24% All Americans 41% Hispanic 36% Black Americans 18% White Americans

Believe people living in poorer developing countries will be harmed… 54% All Americans

Climate change risk (YPCCC 2015)

American Christians who believe “people in US being harmed today by global warming”…

27% Born-again, Evangelicals 25% Non-Evangelical Protestants 30% Catholics

Climate change concern (PRRI 2014)

White evangelical Protestants: 18% “very concerned“17% “somewhat concerned”

Hispanic Catholics: 43% “very concerned”30% “somewhat concerned”


Worried about global warming: Catholics:

10% “Very worried” 57% “Somewhat worried”

Non-evangelical Protestants:48% “Worried” 52% “Not worried”

Born-again/Evangelicals: 62% “Not very worried” or “Not at all

worried”


“Humans could reduce global warming, but unclear whether we will do what’s necessary” 37%Born-again Evangelicals 48% Non-Evangelical Protestants 49% Catholics

Who believe “We won’t because people are unwilling to change their behavior” 24%Born-again Evangelicals 18% Non-Evangelical Protestants 28% Catholics


Who believe “Humans can’t reduce global warming even if it is happening”

15% Born-again Evangelicals 16% Non-Evangelical Protestants 10% Catholics

Keystone XL Pipeline (PRRI 2014)

Americans who…52% support building 37 % opposed

Americans who… favor stricter limits on power plant

carbon dioxide emissions even if raising prices (goods, services)

57 % support increased regulation 38% opposed


Support policies to reduce global warming:(Evangelicals, Non-Evangelical, Catholics) 80%, 83%, 80% - Increase funding to make

transportation more resistant to extreme weather 74%, 80%, 83% - Tax rebates: E-EVs, solar panels 73%, 81%, 81% - Fund renewable energy research 72%, 75%, 74% - Regulate CO2 as pollutant 60%, 68%, 67% - Require 20% renewable energy

utility sources, even if adds $100 household cost


“Strongly or somewhat support” – Stricter CO2 emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants to reduce global warming and improve public health, with increased cost of electricity to consumers and utilities

60% Born-again Evangelicals 70% Non-Evangelicals 74% Catholics

Christians’ Views on:Religion

Is Global Warming… (YPCCC 2015)

“A major moral issue?” 16% Born-again Evangelicals Non-Evangelicals (21%), Catholics (22%)

“A major religious issue?” 9% Born-again Evangelicals Non-Evangelicals (6%), Catholics* (5%)

“A major spiritual issue?” 9% Born-again Evangelicals Non-Evangelicals (6%), Catholics (8%)

“God expects…” (YPCCC 2015)

“People to rule over nature” 18% Born-again Evangelicals 11% Non-Evangelicals 12% Catholics

“People to be good stewards of nature” 49% Born-again Evangelicals 36% Non-Evangelicals 41% Catholics

Religion and Science (PRRI 2014)

“White evangelical Protestants stand out from other religious groups in their…

willingness to embrace theological over scientific explanations for the severity of recent natural disasters and in their

skepticism that human beings are playing a role in rising global temperatures,”

- Robert P. Jones, CEO of Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI)

Recent natural disasters (PRRI)

White evangelical Protestants’ beliefs about reasons for their severity…

77% = agree evidence of biblical “end times”

49% = attribute it to climate change

Religion and Science (PRRI 2014)

54% Americans say… religion and science are often in

conflict

38% say their… own religious beliefs are at odds

with science


Who “accept scientific explanations when they conflict with prior religious or spiritual beliefs” 11% Born-again Evangelicals 20% Non-Evangelicals 22% Catholics

Who “accept religious or spiritual beliefs over scientific explanations when the two conflict” 55% Born-again Evangelicals 18% Non-Evangelicals 18% Catholics

Religion-Science Relationship Is…(RPLP 2014)

“Conflict…I’m on the side of religion.” - 29% Evan. Prot. Vs. Mainline Prot. (12%), All (14%)

“Conflict…I’m on the side of science.” - 01% Evan. Prot. Vs. Mainline Prot. (07%), All (13%)

“Independence…they explain different realities.” - 21% Evan. Prot. Vs. Mainline Prot. (39%), All (35%)

“Collaboration…they can support each other.” - 48% Evan. Prot. Vs. Mainline Prot. (43%), All (38%)

ReferencesSurvey data sources [links next slide]

PRRI - http://publicreligion.org/research/2014/11/believers-sympathizers-skeptics-americans-conflicted-climate-change-environmental-policy-science/

RPLP - https://rplp.rice.edu/Content.aspx?id=4294967368

YPCCC - http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/climate-change-in-the-american-christian-mind

ReferencesSurvey data sources – web links

PRRI - http://publicreligion.org/research/2014/11/believers-sympathizers-skeptics-americans-conflicted-climate-change-environmental-policy-science/

RPLP - https://rplp.rice.edu/Content.aspx?id=4294967368

YPCCC - http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/climate-change-in-the-american-christian-mind

http://publicreligion.org/research/2014/11/believers-sympathizers-skeptics-americans-conflicted-climate-change-environmental-policy-science/



https://rplp.rice.edu/Content.aspx?id=4294967368

http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/climate-change-in-the-american-christian-mind



Christians Science Climate Religion 2014 2015 surveys

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