Christian Palliere

www.fertilizerseurope.com

The Outlook for EU Agriculture

Challenges, constraints and opportunities to productivity

The cereals sector

COPA COGECA - 29 June 2011


Content

The challenges ahead, reminder Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity Productivity improvement – from where? Fertilizations:

Recommendations towards higher productivity Measurable productivity criteria

The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021

The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011

Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity




More people – Less arable land

0.2

0.22

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0.26

0.28

0.3

5.5

6

6.5

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7.5

8

8.5

We must produce more food per hectar

World population(in Bn)Arable area

(in ha per person)

20301998




Agricultural areas in EU 15


The global economic growth is expected (GDP) to be 3,3 % p.a. towards 2019

Canada China EU India Japan Latin Mexico Middle South USA Amerika East Corea




The challenges ahead

World population growth >> +50% in 2050

GDP >> income growth leads to diet change (emerging countries)

To ensure food security inside EU, and contributing outside

To cope with increased demand for non food crops

>> by 2030, world need for cereals will rise by 50% (FAO)




Content







Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity

Resource availability Arable land, water availability

Agronomic constraints Rotational requirements Soil structure Balanced nutrition

Economic constraints High and unpredictable energy prices High price volatility of agricultural

commodities



Natural and environmental constraints Extreme weather events (droughts, floods) Climate change and its impacts on cereal

yields Ensuring minimum impact on environment

Organizational constraints Dissemination of good practice onto farms

Policy uncertainties CAP post 2013 Biofuels production in EU Market instriment to address price volatility GMO development in EU


Increased market volatility in Europe

Source: Weekly price development milling wheat, Matif






Comparisons of phosphate inputs and offtakes for UK wheat, not accounting for any manure inputs


Financial crisis Lower productivityImbalanced

Nutrition(P,K)



Impact of the economic situation on productivity


Content






www.fertilizerseurope.comSource: University of Copenhagen

Increase in productivity - from where?

Biotechnology 29%

Cultivation technology 31%

Irrigation systems 23%

Fertilizers 17%




Content







Recommendations: Good Fertilizer Practice towards a more productive agriculture

Improve extension of scientific and practical knowledge onto farm – best practice and balanced fertilization

• Improving and monitoring Nitrogen Use Efficiency• Use of precision farming techniques (right rate at right time)• Using the appropriate nitrogen form, nitrate vs urea (right product)• Better control of nutrient availability:

– Urease inhibitors – Nitrification inhibitors

• Localization and/or incorporation (right place)

Improved understanding and use of recycled products on farm and better use efficiency of their nutrients

• Coordinated use of all nutrient sources

Integrated approach of environmental protection• Vertical: Life Cycle approach• Horizontal: Interactions between environmental compartments




Precision farming tools towards Good Agricultural Practice

Software and crop monitoring tools help to calculate the right nutrient rateand apply it at the right time

=> these tools helped to improve Nutrient Use Efficiency






Applying Sustainable Farming principles


Productivity criteria / indicator should be measurable: Nitrogen Use Efficiency as an indicator

Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) the ratio between the amount of N removed from the field with the harvest and the N applied

>> NUE is proposed by an UN ECE Task Force as a « legal instrument » to monitor the implementation of the revised Gothenburg protocol.

>> NUE is proposed by a group of scientists as a sustainability indicator for the evaluation of the sustainability of first generation biofuels




The Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Europe

Source: own calculation based on FAO and Fertilizers Europe data

N use efficiency (NUE in %) = (N removal/N application) x 100




Content







CAP post 2013: A policy opportunity

Supporting agricultural productivity To boost competitiveness of EU agriculture

– ensuring farmers’ income while limiting market support To contribute towards food security - a central issue for EU agriculture

– Both for EU self reliance and contribution to global food supply To help EU agriculture (and forestry) to respond to the new demand for

renewable resources – Bioenergy, biomass

Improving environmental protection while increasing productivity Improving environmental protection is essential for EU agriculture

– ‘’Sustainable productive farming systems’’ (such as IFM) can reconcile productivity and respect for the environment.

Mitigation of environmental impacts – Increasing productivity in existing cropland and avoiding the need

to crop more land will benefit biodiversity and save GHG emissions




Content







- 13.6%

- 11.3%

Fertilizers Europe forecast consumption 2011/2021 (reference 2007)

>> slow return to 2005/2007 level

- 0.9%

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N

P2O5

K2O

Fertilizer nutrient consumption in the European Union 27Nutrient (million tonnes)






without fertilizer with fertilizer

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

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any question?any question?

Christian Palliere

Technology

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