CHRISTIAN JOERGCHRISTIAN JOERG · production from South America Russia Ukraineproduction from South...
Transcript of CHRISTIAN JOERGCHRISTIAN JOERG · production from South America Russia Ukraineproduction from South...
CHRISTIAN JOERGCHRISTIAN JOERGGROWING IMPORTANCE OF THE BLACK SEA – HOW SUSTAINABLE?
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Source: Times Magazine, July 11, 2011
OutlineOutline
• Global food/feed trends• World grain production and use• Global food/feed trends• World grain production and useWorld grain production and use• World exports• Global food prices and use
World grain production and use• World exports• Global food prices and use• Global food prices and use• Climate change
L d il bilit
• Global food prices and use• Climate change
L d il bilit• Land availability• Ukraine – agricultural overview• Land availability• Ukraine – agricultural overview• Summary• Summary
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Trends in world food/feed demandTrends in world food/feed demand
• Global population expanding by 80m every year• Movement from country to cityo e e t o cou t y to c ty• Transition from rice dominated diets to meals including
meat and dairyy• Demand for food and feed is expected to increase by
15% or 300mmt in the next 10 years y
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ChallengesChallengesgg
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ChallengesChallengesgg
Limited availability of arable land Continued depletion of top soilsCo t ued dep et o o top so sReceding levels of ground water available for irrigationClimate changeClimate changeDemands for food and feed must be met by increased production from South America Russia Ukraineproduction from South America, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and southern Africa
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World grain production and use – mtWorld grain production and use – mtg pg p
2,700 600
U
2 3912,419
2,449 2,4692,505
2,5332,571 2,595
2,500
400
Use
Change in EndingStocks
2,242 2,234
2,3542,391
2,265
2,188
2,300
400StocksProduction
2,044
2,126
2,018 2,005
1 900
2,100 200
-93 -84
49
-46
82 35
-50
8 16 14 15 2 5 3 11 7-13-14-30
221,8211,8631,846
1,880
1,700
1,900
0
1,500 -200
/01
5/06 /1
1
5/16 /21
Source: USDA, FAO, OECD
2000
200 5
2010
2015
2020
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World grain use, by sector - mtWorld grain use, by sector - mtg , yg , y
0 8
3,000
Feedstuff Food Ethanol
155 165 175 178 180 180 182 182 183 181
8 95 32 051
,103
2,16
0
2,19
9
2,23
8
2,27
7
2,34
5
2,37
6
2,40
5
2,43
4
2,46
7
2,50
0
2,52
9
2,56
0
2,58
8
2,500
Feedstuff Food Ethanol
3 9 26 44 463
481
499
,518
29 31 39 43 48 56 72 95 114 135 150 155
1,86
6
1,91
0
1,91
4
1,94
8
1,99 2,0 2,0 2, 2
2,000
1,14
3
1,17
0
1,16
9
1,19
2
1,19
5
1,22
4
1,23
7
1,25
3
1,28
0
1,29
6
1,31
5
1,33
5
1,38
1
1,39
3
1,40
9
1,42 1,44 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,
1,000
1,500
94 09 06 13 52 52 42 55 766
767
773
787
799
808
818
829
842
855
866
878
889500
1,000
69 70 70 71 75 75 74 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
0
00/0
1
05/0
6
10/1
1
15/1
6
20/2
1
Source: USDA, FAO, OECD
200
200
201
201
202
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World wheat exports – mtWorld wheat exports – mtpp
144160
109 112117
112117
144136
126 128
120
140 Others
102 106 106 109 112 112
100
120
Ukraine
60
80
Russia
40
Top 5 Exporter
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20Top 5 Exporter(USA, Canada,EU, Australia,Argentina)
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Source: USDA
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World barley exports – mtWorld barley exports – mty py p
25
1 1718
20
1720
Others
17 1716 16
15 15 1517
15
1315 Ukraine
10 Russia
5Top 5 Exporter
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
p p(USA, Canada,EU, Australia,Argentina)
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Source: USDA
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World corn exports – mtWorld corn exports – mtpp120
77 77 78 78 82
9499
84
9791 93100
Others
77 75 77 78 78
60
80 Ukraine
40
60
Serbia
20 Top 5 Exporter(USA, India,
0
0/01
1/02
2/03
3/04
4/05
5/06
6/07
7/08
8/09
9/10
0/11
1/12
Brazil, SouthAfrica, Argentina)
00/0
01/0
02/0
03/0
04/0
05/0
06/0
07/0
08/0
09/1
10/1
11/1
Source: USDA
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Food prices - high volatilityFood prices - high volatilityp g yp g y
200 Swine (pork), 51-52% lean Hogs, U.S.
160
180 Sugar, Free Market, Coffee Sugar and Cocoa Exchange(CSCE) contract no.11 nearest future position,
M i ( ) U S N 2 Y ll FOB G lf f M i U S
140
160 Maize (corn), U.S. No.2 Yellow, FOB Gulf of Mexico, U.S.
Wheat, No.1 Hard Red Winter, ordinary protein, FOB Gulfof Mexico,
100
120
60
80
40
60
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
010
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: IMF
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Global food use growth stronger than wheat yield growthGlobal food use growth stronger than wheat yield growthwheat yield growthwheat yield growth
115
110
115
Net agricultural per capitafood consumption indexwheat yields
105
100
95
902000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: FAO, OECD, USDA13
Price development (%)Price development (%)p ( )p ( )
80
506070 Base 2008-10
Base 2001-10
203040
01020
-30-20-10
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Whe
at
Mai
ze
Ric
e
Oils
eeds
ed m
eals
Veg.
Oils
aw S
ugar
Bee
f
Pigm
eat
Poul
try
Fish
But
ter
Che
ese
O
Oils
ee V
Ra
Source: FAO, OECD14
Challenge climate changeChallenge climate changeg gg g
North America Europe•More precipitation in the winter months•Warmer winters in Canada and in the north of the USA•Vegetation period in Canada becomes longer•Drier, warmer summers
Asia• More precipitation in northern and eastern China•Yield increases in northern and eastern China
Europe•Less precipitation in southern Europe•More precipitation in northern Europe•Hot, dry summers in southern Europe
and eastern China•Yield losses in China
Australia•Less precipitation in the south and west•Yield losses in the west and south•Heavier bush fires
South America•More precipitation from December through February•Yield increases for corn and soybeans
Africa•Yield losses in North Africa•Loss of arable land of up to 90m ha
Source: IPCC
Yield increases for corn and soybeans•Wheat yield losses due to worse seeding and growing conditions
in large parts of Africa•75-250m people affected by climate change until 2020
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Ukraine – agricultural overviewUkraine – agricultural overviewgg
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Country profilesCountry profilesy py p
A t liA t li Uk iUk i C dC d
• Population: 21.5 million (UN, 2010)
• Population: 45.4 million (UN, 2010)
• Population: 33.8 million (UN, 2010)
AustraliaAustralia UkraineUkraine CanadaCanada
(U , 0 0)• Area: 7.7 m sq km (2.9 m
sq miles)• Life expectancy: 80 years
( ) 84 ( )
(U , 0 0)• Area: 603,700 sq km
(233,090 sq miles)• Life expectancy: 64 years
( ) 74 ( )
0 0)• Area: 9.9 m sq km (3.8 m sq
miles)• Life expectancy: 79 years
( ) 84 ( )(men), 84 years (women)• GDP per capita: US
$43,770 (World Bank, 2009)
(men), 74 years (women)• GDP per capita: US
$2,800 (World Bank, 2009)
(men), 84 years (women)• GDP per capita: US $42,170
(World Bank, 2009))
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Ukrainian agriculture strengthsUkrainian agriculture strengthsg gg g
• Fertile soils across the country• Fertile soils across the country
• Soils with a high water retention capacity
• Climate supportive for crop growth
• Soils with a high water retention capacity
• Climate supportive for crop growth• Climate supportive for crop growth
• Large scale farms
• Climate supportive for crop growth
• Large scale farms
• Access to Black Sea ports and the key import nations• Access to Black Sea ports and the key import nations
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Wheat yield developmentWheat yield developmenty py p
3A t li
Basis average wheat yields 1992-2010
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Australia
Canada
Ukraine
+1: above average yield0: average yield
-1: below average yield
1
1
0
-2
-1
-300/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Prevention of lack of supply: Diversification of investments: In case of below normal yields, above normal yields are noted elsewhere
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Source: Viterra, USDA19
Farmland developmentFarmland developmentpp
200,000
160,000
180,000
100 000
120,000
140,000 Average 1993-1997
Average 1998-2002
60 000
80,000
100,000Average 2003-2008
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
USA
Indi
a
Rus
sia
Chi
na EU
Bra
zil
anad
a
stra
lia
krai
ne
entin
a
hsta
n
Source FAO
R C B
Ca
Aus U
k
Arg
e
Kaz
akh
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Total nitrogen use per ha of arable land Total nitrogen use per ha of arable land g pg p
350
300
200
250Average 1998-2003
100
150 Average 2004-2008
50
100
0
USA
Indi
a
ussi
a
Chi
na EU
Bra
zil
anad
a
stra
lia
krai
ne
entin
a
hsta
n kg/ha
R C B
Ca
Aus U
k
Arg
e
Kaz
akh
Source: Viterra, FAO21
Summary Summary yy
World grain and oilseed use will increase furtherExport potential out of key export nations must be po t pote t a out o ey e po t at o s ust beextendedUkraine is the breadbasket of EuropepHigh potential to increase yieldsTrade of agricultural commodities will growTrade of agricultural commodities will growInvestments in Ukraine are helping to reduce the risk of supply lossessupply losses
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Source: Times Magazine, July 11, 2011
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Source: Times Magazine, July 11, 2011