Future  Iden**es      Chris  Hankin,  Imperial  College  London        Trust,  Risk,  Informa:on  and  the  Law  April  2015  

Overview

•  Foresight Project findings

•  Continuing Technological Trends

•  Academic response

Future Identities Changing identities in the UK: the next 10 years

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http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/policy-futures/identity

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Foresight

•  Foresight helps Government deliver major

policy agendas by enabling today’s decisions to be resilient to future uncertainties •  Foresight Projects: landmark studies looking at

key issues 20 - 100 years in the future where science and technology are the main drivers for change.

•  Horizon Scanning / Policy Futures Projects: small projects aiming to answer specific policy questions

•  Foresight Toolkits and Networks: share best practice within and across government

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Future Identities: Drivers of Change

•  The Report provides a unique

analysis of changes across a range of drivers which will impact identities in the UK.

•  Hyper-connectivity is removing the distinction between online and offline identities and blurring ‘public’ and ‘private’ identities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16832799

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Future Identities: Drivers of Change

Source: ONS. Estimated and projected age structure of the United Kingdom population, mid-2010 and mid-2035

•  Some trends change slowly so there is likely to be a gradual evolution or stability of identities rather than any rapid change.

•  For example, the median age of the UK population is projected to rise from 39.7 yrs in 2010 to 42.2 yrs by 2035.

•  Society may become more pluralised with dispersed or ‘virtual’ communities emerging.

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Future Identities: Implications for Policy Makers The Report identifies the implications of this for policy makers in six key areas:

•  Crime and criminal justice

•  Health, environment and wellbeing

•  Skills, employment and education

•  Radicalisation and extremism •  Social mobility

•  Social integration

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Future Identities: Key Finding

Types of identities: social, biographical and biometric identities and some examples of each type. Source: Foresight.

•  People have many different, co-existing identities.

•  Thinking of identities as fixed and singular is misleading

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Key aspects of Identities for policy makers

•  Identities are socially constructed and highly complex

•  Identities are co-created by individuals and by others

•  Identities can be inclusive, or act to exclude groups and individuals

•  Identities are a resource

Source: Foresight

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Future Identities: Key Trends for next decade

The report has identified three key trends that could impact on identities in the UK over the next ten years:

1.  Hyper-connectivity

2.  Increasing social plurality

3.  Blurring of public and private identities

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Hyper-connectivity

Graph showing, for those people surveyed who currently use the internet, the locations they access the internet. Survey conducted every two years. Sample sizes 2003: =1,202; 2005:=1,309; 2007: =1,578; 2009: =1,401; 2011:=1,498 Data reflecting mobile access to the internet only available from 2009 onwards. Respondents can select multiple responses to the question, ‘could I ask you about all the places where you access the Internet?’ Source: Oxford Internet Survey 2011, Oxford Internet Institute

•  Differentiation between online and offline identities will disappear.

•  This could increase the

pace and turbulence of social change.

•  Hyper-connected citizens may expect government to be able to react in real time to current events.

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Location of access to internet

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•  Society is likely to become more diverse.

•  Dispersed or ‘virtual’ communities may diversify society into less integrated, more transient groups.

•  These could be considered less cohesive but can also provide support and act to bring people together.

Increasing Social Plurality

Graph showing change in ethnic composition of the population in England and Wales Comparing data from 2001 and 2011 Census, England and Wales. Baseline for comparison is 1991 census data: '2001' data show change from 1991 to 2001; '2011' data show change from 1991 to 2011. Footnotes: 1. Comparability issues exist between these ethnic groups for the 2001 and 2011 Census 2. No comparable data exists for these ethnic groups in 2001 Census Source: Census data, Office for National Statistics.

Change (%)

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Blurring of public and private identities

•  Attitudes towards privacy are changing.

•  Individuals are sharing personal information more freely.

•  Trust between citizens and organisations who hold personal data and use large data sets is likely to become an issue.

Use of Social internet websites between 2007 and 2011. This graph shows the diffusion of social network sites has crossed over from being an activity pursued by a minority of the population in 2007 (17%) to a majority activity in 2011 (60%) Source: Oxford Internet Survey, 2011

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Implications for policy makers

Changing identities have implications for policy makers in six key areas: 1.  Crime and criminal justice 2.  Health, environment and wellbeing 3.  Skills, employment and education 4.  Radicalisation and extremism 5.  Social mobility 6.  Social integration

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Crime and Criminal Justice

•  Increased personal and financial data online means that there will be more opportunity for criminal exploitation.

•  However, there are also opportunities for enhanced crime prevention, intelligence gathering, and crime detection

•  It will be increasingly challenging to keep up with the pace of change, both in terms of new technology, and the myriad ways in which it interacts with people’s identities and behaviours. inpublicsafety.com/2012/03/the-world-is-

changing-police-officers-must-embrace-technology-whether-they-like-it-or-not

Technological  Trends  (source:  McKinsey  iConsumer)  

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Top$iConsumer$Trends$for$2012

Device$shift$from%PC%to%touch

Content$shiftFrom%bundled%to%fragmented

Social$shift$From%growth%to%monetization

Video$shiftFrom%programmer%to%user%controlled

Retail$shift$From%channel%to%experience

Communications$shiftFrom%voice%to%data

Share$of$usage2008 2012

PC 78% 57%Mobile 22% 33%Tablet 0% 11%Voice 39% 27%Email 42% 36%Social 15% 26%Other 4% 10%

Mobile<voice 61% 22%Mobile<data 39% 78%

Social 13% 23%Other<internet 87% 77%

Linear<TV 78% 65%DVR,<VOD,<OTT 22% 35%

EEcommerce/< 3.6% 4.9%All<retail

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iConsumer: Digital Consumers Altering the Value ChainConsumer behavior is rapidly changing, with “digital” activities growing rapidly in every sphere. In the US, nearly half (48%) of all the video we watch is now either “time-shifted” (using DVRs or Video-on-Demand), or “device-shifted” onto our laptop, tablet or mobile phone screens. Music is even more digital, with just over two-thirds of usage from streaming services, MP3 files, and satellite radio, leaving traditional AM/terrestrial FM radio with just 32% of usage share. Even among consumers aged 55-64, mobile phone usage has overtaken landline voice usage. These user-behavior changes have and will continue to disrupt existing industry value chains and economics, creating many opportunities and risks for stakeholders.

These shifts are supported by findings from our own primary iConsumer research, as well as, our experience working side-by-side with leaders in High Tech, Media, and Telecom (TMT) sectors. Our research tracks the cross-platform and cross-device behaviors of tens of thousands of consumers each year, in both developed and emerging markets around the globe. As we look back at findings from our fifth year of research, we see six major ongoing consumer trends that are reshaping TMT and related industries (see Exhibit 2).

Technology, Media & Telecommunications

EXHIBIT 1: SIX SIGNIFICANT iCONSUMER TRENDS

Data Breaches (source: Symantec)

Data exposed (source: Symantec)

Some Mobile Data

•  Today: • 7.3B mobile connections • 3.6B unique subscribers • 2.2B mobile internet subscribers • 85% within mobile coverage

•  2020 • 3 devices per person – super-connected • 3.8B mobile internet subscribers • 95% within mobile coverage

WDYTYA projects

•  SID (Super-Id) – static and behavioural measures of identity in both the real world and the cyber world – linkage between on-line and off-line cues have predictive power.

•  IMPRINTS – identity management technology, services and practices; identification of taboos and production of artefacts – the privacy paradox.

•  Uncertainty of Id – spatio-temporal aspects of identity in virtual and real domains – novel methods of identification.

•  Identiscope – multiple identities – as a resource.

Some future directions

•  Ethics in Data Access and Data Sharing in a Big Data world – privacy, security and replicability of science, consequences of privacy hurt.

•  Digital Redundancy and Identity Loss – what if communities lose identities through a cloud breach?

•  Social Sorting in Identity management – social exclusion and equitable solutions

•  Negative Identities – security through minimal disclosure

Some future directions, contd.

•  The Internet of Things – the technological and social challenge of how smart cities shape and define identities

•  Identities shaped by technologies – well-being, sociality, identity and cohesion in a technologically mediated world.

•  Scaling identity and identity management up to internet proportions

•  Identity as the new money – privacy, protection, value and attack

Digital Personhood

•  Overcoming barriers to the expression of digital identity.

•  Curating personal, digital narratives and memories. •  Physical proxies of digital self: connecting the digital

and physical world. •  Multiple, digital projections and online identities. •  Understanding how citizens could be empowered by

utilizing the value of their digital self.

Digital Personhood

Futures of Identity Network

A programme of twice-yearly events focussed on: •  Identity management (April 2013, US), •  Copyright in digital economies (Sept 2013, Edinburgh), •  Cloud-based security (April 2014, Bletchley Park), •  Mobile apps and access control (November 2014, City

University) •  Safety and cybersecurity conference (IET London, October

2015).

Thank you Questions?