Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
-
Upload
cp24-torontos-breaking-news -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
1/14
Conversions Value
insq/ftsq 144
m/yd 1.111
SQIN/SQ M 1600
sqft/sqm 10.764
Development in Toronto Downtown : Non-Residential GFAApplications received Jan 1, 2009 to Dec 31, 2013.
Area Square Metres Square Feet
Downtown and central waterfront 1,694,812 18,242,956
Other Mixed Use Areas 299,375 3,222,473
Source: Toronto City Planning, How Our City Grows, July 2014
www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdf
Location Square Feet Floors Source
First Canadian Place 2,700,000 62 Wikipedia
Commerce Court West 1,209,530 57 Commerce Court Website
Commerce Court North 238,441 32
Commerce Court East 163,073 5
Commerce Court South 91,561 13
Complex total 1,702,605
TD Bank Tower (rentable space) 1,332,667 56 TD Centre website
99 King W 973,513 46
100 Wellington W 514,769 3279 Wellington W 693,248 38
222 Bay (E+Y) 182,362 31
95 Wellington W 330,000 23
Retail T&D 150,000
Complex total 4,176,559
Retail % 3.59%
City of Toronto commercial tax rates 2014 % FractionCity tax 1.602303 0.01602303
Transit tax 0.002644 0.00002644
City total 1.604947 0.01604947
Education tax 1.292138 0.01292138
2.897085 0.02897085
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/Local%20Settings/Downloads/www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/Local%20Settings/Downloads/www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdf -
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
2/14
Link
http://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbers
http://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspx
http://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbershttp://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspxhttp://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspxhttp://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbers -
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
3/14
Area Description 2014
Downtown New commercial ft sq
total value($k)
cumulative value
assessed value
full taxes:current year increment
IMIT tax incentive for current year constructionIMIT net tax incentive: current year total
net taxes
PV of taxes
Fraction attributed to new transit
TIF available
investment attributed to transit
Liberty Village New commercial ft sq
total value($k)
cumulative value
assessed value
full taxes:current year increment
IMIT tax incentive for current year construction
IMIT net tax incentive: current year total
net taxes
PV of taxes
Fraction attributed to new transit
TIF available
investment attributed to transit
Donlands New commercial ft sqtotal value($k)
cumulative value
assessed value
full taxes:current year increment
IMIT tax incentive for current year construction
IMIT net tax incentive: current year total
net taxes
PV of taxes
Fraction attributed to new transit
TIF available
investment attributed to transit
AS-SPENT VALUE OF TOTAL INVESTMENT ($K) $20,371,862
ATTRIBUTED TO TRANSIT
PV OF TOTAL TIF REVENUES ($k) $929,283
Data assumptions Abbreviation 2014
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
4/14
Discount rate disc 0.04
Current value cvalue 1
Tax rate tax 0.016049
Construction cost cc 365
Construction cost inflation rate i 0.02
Tax rate escalation rate deltatax 0
Fraction of downtown due to transit basetif 0.64Increment on above incr 0
Fraction of LV due to transit lvtif 0.64
Fraction of Donlands due to transit dptif 0.64
IMIT tax incentive rate imitrate 0.6
IMIT eligible share imitshare 0.4
Methodology, notes and assumptions:
Basic methodology: assume square footage of total commercial construction, calcul
All tax totals discounted to present value in 2014, using discount rate.
Municipal tax rate is set for four-year periods, based on current value as observed in
City of Toronto offers 10-year tax incentive (IMIT) for certain office and industrial bu
Tax is calculated as accumulated assessed value of new construction times current t
Construction totals (square feet) in this calculation are taken from Toronto Star opin
In downtown core, 12000000 square feet of new commercial space over 30 years,
In Liberty Village, 15,000,000 sq ft. over 30 years, built as one million square feet e
In Donlands, 15000000 square feet over 30 years, taken as one million square feet
Note: all construction and tax values in thousands of dollars
Major assumptions in table above
Discount rate: rate used to calculate PV of future tax flows
Current value: ratio of assessed value to current value. Discounted from as-spent vaTax rate: overall municipal tax rate. Set at current City of Toronto general commerci
Construction cost: cost per square foot of typical commercial construction for buildi
Inflation rate. Used for inflating construction cost.
fractions due to transit: downtown is basetif; Liberty Village lvtif; donlands dptif
IMIT tax incentive rate: the rate of tax incentive offered to projects eligible for IMIT
IMIT eligible share: the fraction of buildings eligible to receive the IMIT tax incentive.
How to change assumptions
Square footage: no automatic changes. Make new assumptions and paste into spre
Fraction attributed to transit: for downtown, change base tif and increment; for Lib
Construction cost per square foot: change base by changing cell D51Tax rate escalation: change tax rate escalation rate in cell D53.
Discount rate: change cell D48
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
5/14
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000
$0 $161,196 $164,420 $167,708 $171,062 $174,484 $177,973
$0 $161,196 $325,616 $493,324 $664,386 $838,869 $1,016,843
$0 $148,920 $294,920 $493,324 $651,359 $806,295 $958,193
$0 $2,587 $2,639 $2,692 $2,745 $2,800 $2,856
$0 $621 $633 $646 $659 $672 $686$0 $621 $1,254 $1,900 $2,559 $3,231 $3,917
$0 $1,769 $3,479 $6,017 $7,895 $9,709 $11,462
$0 $1,454 $2,750 $4,573 $5,769 $6,822 $7,743
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$0 $931 $1,760 $2,927 $3,692 $4,366 $4,956
$0 $103,165 $105,229 $107,333 $109,480 $111,669 $113,903
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
$402,989 $419,270 $0 $436,209 $0
$402,989 $402,989 $822,260 $822,260 $1,258,469 $1,258,469
$372,300 $365,000 $822,260 $806,137 $1,209,601 $1,185,883
$6,468 $0 $6,729 $0 $7,001 $0
$1,552 $0 $1,615 $0 $1,680 $0
$1,552 $1,552 $3,167 $3,167 $4,847 $4,847
$4,423 $4,306 $10,030 $9,771 $14,566 $14,185
$3,635 $3,403 $7,622 $7,139 $10,234 $9,583
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$2,327 $2,178 $4,878 $4,569 $6,550 $6,133
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$402,989 $419,270 $0 $436,209 $0
$402,989 $402,989 $822,260 $822,260 $1,258,469 $1,258,469
$372,300 $365,000 $822,260 $806,137 $1,209,601 $1,185,883
$6,468 $0 $6,729 $0 $7,001 $0
$1,552 $0 $1,615 $0 $1,680 $0
$1,552 $1,552 $3,167 $3,167 $4,847 $4,847
$4,423 $4,306 $10,030 $9,771 $14,566 $14,185
$3,635 $3,403 $7,622 $7,139 $10,234 $9,583
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$2,327 $2,178 $4,878 $4,569 $6,550 $6,133
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
6/14
1 0.923845426 0.90573081 1 0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335
0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605
395.1 403.0 411.0 419.3 427.7 436.2 444.9
te cost of construction, assume assessed value in year of in-service will equal construction cost, then assume
January of previous year. Therefore, taxes in second through fourth years are not based on current cost. Ad
ildings. Amount of incentive is calculated as fraction of tax for that year and is applied for 10 years, then subt
x rate minus impact of IMIT tax incentive.
ion piece, Oct. 14, 2014, by Arthur Lofsky
aken as 400000 square feet per year.
very other year.
every other year.
lue during later years of four-year current value period.ial rate, including only the City and transit portions and excluding the education portion which is not at the cit
gs over 30 stories. Cost is high end of range from 2014 Altus Construction Cost Guide for buildings in GTA ov
ax incentive (as % of total tax)
.
dsheet in rows 2, 15, 28
rty Village and Donlands, change fraction
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
7/14
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000
$181,533 $185,163 $188,867 $192,644 $196,497 $200,427 $204,435
$1,198,375 $1,383,539 $1,572,405 $1,765,049 $1,961,546 $2,161,972 $2,366,408
$1,107,113 $1,383,539 $1,541,574 $1,696,510 $1,848,408 $1,997,328 $2,366,408
$2,914 $2,972 $3,031 $3,092 $3,154 $3,217 $3,281
$699 $713 $727 $742 $757 $772 $787$4,616 $5,329 $6,057 $6,799 $6,935 $7,073 $7,215
$13,153 $16,876 $18,685 $20,429 $22,731 $24,983 $30,765
$8,544 $10,541 $11,222 $11,797 $12,622 $13,338 $15,794
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$5,468 $6,746 $7,182 $7,550 $8,078 $8,537 $10,108
$116,181 $118,505 $120,875 $123,292 $125,758 $128,273 $130,839
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
$453,832 $472,166 $0 $491,242 $0 $511,088
$1,712,300 $1,712,300 $2,184,467 $2,184,467 $2,675,709 $2,675,709 $3,186,797
$1,581,901 $1,712,300 $2,141,634 $2,099,641 $2,521,380 $2,471,941 $3,186,797
$7,284 $0 $7,578 $0 $7,884 $0 $8,203
$1,748 $0 $1,819 $0 $1,892 $0 $1,969
$6,596 $6,596 $8,414 $8,414 $10,306 $10,306 $12,275
$18,793 $20,886 $25,958 $25,284 $30,160 $29,367 $38,871
$12,208 $13,045 $15,590 $14,601 $16,747 $15,679 $19,955
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$7,813 $8,349 $9,977 $9,345 $10,718 $10,035 $12,771
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$453,832 $472,166 $0 $491,242 $0 $511,088
$1,712,300 $1,712,300 $2,184,467 $2,184,467 $2,675,709 $2,675,709 $3,186,797
$1,581,901 $1,712,300 $2,141,634 $2,099,641 $2,521,380 $2,471,941 $3,186,797
$7,284 $0 $7,578 $0 $7,884 $0 $8,203
$1,748 $0 $1,819 $0 $1,892 $0 $1,969
$6,596 $6,596 $8,414 $8,414 $10,306 $10,306 $12,275
$18,793 $20,886 $25,958 $25,284 $30,160 $29,367 $38,871
$12,208 $13,045 $15,590 $14,601 $16,747 $15,679 $19,955
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$7,813 $8,349 $9,977 $9,345 $10,718 $10,035 $12,771
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
8/14
0.923845426 1 0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335 0.923845426 1
0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605
453.8 462.9 472.2 481.6 491.2 501.1 511.1
fraction attributable to transit and compute revenue available for TIF.
justment is made by deflating by rate of inflation in three years after rate set.
racted.
y's disposal.
er 30 stories. Base 2014 in cell D48. Subsequent years escalated at rate of inflation.
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
9/14
2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000
$208,524 $212,694 $216,948 $221,287 $225,713 $230,227 $234,832
$2,574,932 $2,787,626 $3,004,574 $3,225,862 $3,451,575 $3,681,802 $3,916,634
$2,524,443 $2,679,379 $2,831,278 $2,980,198 $3,451,575 $3,609,610 $3,764,546
$3,347 $3,414 $3,482 $3,552 $3,623 $3,695 $3,769
$803 $819 $836 $852 $869 $887 $905$7,359 $7,506 $7,656 $7,810 $7,966 $8,125 $8,288
$33,157 $35,496 $37,784 $40,021 $47,430 $49,807 $52,131
$16,367 $16,848 $17,244 $17,563 $20,013 $20,208 $20,338
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$10,475 $10,783 $11,036 $11,240 $12,809 $12,933 $13,016
$133,455 $136,124 $138,847 $141,624 $144,456 $147,345 $150,292
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
$531,736 $553,218 $0 $575,568 $0
$3,186,797 $3,718,533 $3,718,533 $4,271,751 $4,271,751 $4,847,319 $4,847,319
$3,124,310 $3,574,138 $3,504,056 $3,946,438 $4,271,751 $4,752,274 $4,659,092
$0 $8,534 $0 $8,879 $0 $9,238 $0
$0 $2,048 $0 $2,131 $0 $2,217 $0
$12,275 $14,323 $14,323 $16,454 $16,454 $18,671 $18,671
$37,868 $43,040 $41,915 $46,884 $52,105 $57,600 $56,105
$18,693 $20,428 $19,129 $20,574 $21,986 $23,370 $21,888
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$11,963 $13,074 $12,243 $13,168 $14,071 $14,957 $14,008
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$531,736 $553,218 $0 $575,568 $0
$3,186,797 $3,718,533 $3,718,533 $4,271,751 $4,271,751 $4,847,319 $4,847,319
$3,124,310 $3,574,138 $3,504,056 $3,946,438 $4,271,751 $4,752,274 $4,659,092
$0 $8,534 $0 $8,879 $0 $9,238 $0
$0 $2,048 $0 $2,131 $0 $2,217 $0
$12,275 $14,323 $14,323 $16,454 $16,454 $18,671 $18,671
$37,868 $43,040 $41,915 $46,884 $52,105 $57,600 $56,105
$18,693 $20,428 $19,129 $20,574 $21,986 $23,370 $21,888
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$11,963 $13,074 $12,243 $13,168 $14,071 $14,957 $14,008
2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
10/14
0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335 0.923845426 1 0.980392157 0.961168781
0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605
521.3 531.7 542.4 553.2 564.3 575.6 587.1
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
11/14
2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000
$239,528 $244,319 $249,205 $254,190 $259,273 $264,459 $269,748
$4,156,162 $4,400,481 $4,649,687 $4,903,876 $5,163,150 $5,427,608 $5,697,356
$3,916,445 $4,065,365 $4,211,365 $4,354,502 $4,494,833 $4,632,412 $4,767,293
$3,844 $3,921 $4,000 $4,080 $4,161 $4,244 $4,329
$923 $941 $960 $979 $999 $1,019 $1,039$8,453 $8,622 $8,795 $8,971 $9,150 $9,333 $9,520
$54,403 $56,624 $58,795 $60,917 $62,989 $65,015 $66,993
$20,408 $20,424 $20,391 $20,314 $20,198 $20,045 $19,861
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$13,061 $13,071 $13,050 $13,001 $12,927 $12,829 $12,711
$153,298 $156,364 $159,491 $162,681 $165,935 $169,254 $172,639
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
$598,821 $0 $623,014 $0 $648,183 $0 $674,370
$5,446,140 $5,446,140 $6,069,154 $6,069,154 $6,717,337 $6,717,337 $7,391,707
$5,132,020 $5,031,392 $5,497,020 $5,389,235 $5,847,846 $5,733,183 $6,185,050
$9,611 $0 $9,999 $0 $10,403 $0 $10,823
$2,307 $0 $2,400 $0 $2,497 $0 $2,598
$20,978 $20,978 $23,378 $23,378 $25,874 $25,874 $28,472
$61,388 $59,773 $64,847 $63,117 $67,981 $66,140 $70,795
$23,028 $21,560 $22,490 $21,048 $21,798 $20,392 $20,988
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$14,738 $13,798 $14,394 $13,471 $13,951 $13,051 $13,432
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$598,821 $0 $623,014 $0 $648,183 $0 $674,370
$5,446,140 $5,446,140 $6,069,154 $6,069,154 $6,717,337 $6,717,337 $7,391,707
$5,132,020 $5,031,392 $5,497,020 $5,389,235 $5,847,846 $5,733,183 $6,185,050
$9,611 $0 $9,999 $0 $10,403 $0 $10,823
$2,307 $0 $2,400 $0 $2,497 $0 $2,598
$20,978 $20,978 $23,378 $23,378 $25,874 $25,874 $28,472
$61,388 $59,773 $64,847 $63,117 $67,981 $66,140 $70,795
$23,028 $21,560 $22,490 $21,048 $21,798 $20,392 $20,988
0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
$14,738 $13,798 $14,394 $13,471 $13,951 $13,051 $13,432
2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
12/14
0.942322335 0.923845426 0.90573081 0.887971382 0.870560179 0.853490371 0.836755266
0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605
598.8 610.8 623.0 635.5 648.2 661.1 674.4
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
13/14
2046 2047 2048 Totals
400000 400000 400000 12,000,000
$275,143 $280,646 $286,259 6,539,404
$5,972,499 $6,253,145 $6,539,404
$4,899,530 $5,029,174 $5,156,275
$4,416 $4,504 $4,594
$1,060 $1,081 $1,103$9,710 $9,904 $10,103
$68,925 $70,811 $72,653
$19,647 $19,409 $19,148 441,393
0.64 0.64 0.64
$12,574 $12,422 $12,255 282,491
$176,091 $179,613 $183,206 4,185,218
1,000,000 15,000,000
$0 $701,614 $0 8,093,322
$7,391,707 $8,093,322 $8,093,322
$6,063,774 $6,509,159 $6,381,529
$0 $11,261 $0
$0 $2,703 $0
$28,472 $31,174 $31,174
$68,848 $73,294 $71,246
$19,626 $20,089 $18,777 505,306
0.64 0.64 0.64
$12,561 $12,857 $12,017 323,396
1,000,000 15,000,000$0 $701,614 $0 8,093,322
$7,391,707 $8,093,322 $8,093,322
$6,063,774 $6,509,159 $6,381,529
$0 $11,261 $0
$0 $2,703 $0
$28,472 $31,174 $31,174
$68,848 $73,294 $71,246
$19,626 $20,089 $18,777 505,306
0.64 0.64 0.64
$12,561 $12,857 $12,017 323,396
$20,371,862
$929,283
2046 2047 2048
-
8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math
14/14
0.8203483 0.804263039 0.788493176
0.01605 0.01605 0.01605
687.9 701.6 715.6