Chinese Drought, Bread Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring Beijing, 2013 Natural hazards –...
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Transcript of Chinese Drought, Bread Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring Beijing, 2013 Natural hazards –...
Chinese Drought, Bread Chinese Drought, Bread
and the Arab Springand the Arab Spring
Beijing, 2013
Natural hazards – food security – political stability
Troy Sternberg Geography
University of Oxford
China . . .
• 22% of world’s people, 7% of water• 4 million km2 – largest dryland country in Asia• 60% agricultural production in northern China,
12% of the water• Farmland – decreased >6% 1997-2006• > 50% urban
Climate change – 1.50C temperature increase
Climate hazards:2008 – ice storms, 77 million people2009-10 – drought in south, 60 million people2010 – floods, 134 million people
Globalization of hazards:
Chinese drought, Bread and the Arab Spring
Egyptian change – political and economic causesHigh cost of living
40% poverty rate
Bread as a symbol of protest
WHEAT
‘Non-political Bread Riots are Breaking Out in Egypt, Killing Three’
Wall Street Journal, Feb 01, 2011
WHEATRole of the global market
2010 – decrease in world wheat production by major exporters
Russia, Ukraine – drought, extreme heat
Canada – cold, excessive rain Australia – excessive rain
Changing climate patterns – El Nino, Pacific Oscillation
Only 6-18% of wheat harvest exported
2010 Wheat ImportsRank Country Metric tons
(in '000s)1 Egypt 9,8002 Brazil 6,0003 Algeria 5,3004 Indonesia 5,3005 Japan 5,200
2010 Wheat ProductionCountry Metric tons Increase/
(in '000s) decreaseChina 114,500 -0.54%
US 60,103 -0.44%Russia 41,500 -32.74%Canada 23,167 -13.71%Ukraine 16,850 -19.38%Australia 13,500 -8.72%
Egypt – wheat low-value cropGrew higher value flowers and mangoes for export
3% of GDP spent on wheat subsidies
1/3 of calories from bread
‘Bread Intifada’ 1977
Bread riots – 2008
August 2010 –Russia stops wheat export to Egypt
Army runs wheat distribution system
•Egypt imports from majors, Argentina, Romania, Kazakhstan…
Egypt
Chinalargest wheat producer/consumer
usually self-sufficientlargest foreign reserves
Nov. 2010 – lack of rainconcern about winter wheat (22 - 90% of total) crop failure
China buys wheat on international market
Government maintaining ‘social stability’
Wheat region Drought Shangdong, Henan, Anhui – Standard Precipitation Index250+ million people through Feb. 28, 2011
SPI drought values:<-1 moderate, <-1.5 severe, <-2 extreme drought
Mckee et al. 1993, Wu et al. 2005, Sternberg et al. 2010
Months 1 2 3Anqing -0.85 -0.56 -1.41Anyang -0.48 -1.19 -2.1Bengbu -1.63 0.01 -1.05Bozhou -1.37 -2 -3Dongtai -1.94 -0.67 -1.77Huoshan -0.72 -0.96 -2Jinan -0.75 -1.26 -2.1Laohekou -1.26 -1.5 -2.1Nanjing -1.33 -0.9 -1.86Wuhan -1.21 -1.32 -1.93Xinyang -1.71 -2.6 -2.7Zhenzhou -0.85 -1.65 -2.7
Central Agricultural region – 525 million people
Drought timescale‘worst in communist party history’
3 month
6 month
Government - $1.9 billion aid, irrigation, wells, water delivery
Future? _______________________
Sternberg, T. 2011. Regional Drought has a global impact. Nature. 472:169Sternberg, T. 2012. Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring. Applied Geography, 34: 519-524.New York Times, March 3, 2013 – Opinion-Editorial
220% increase
Effect of drought on
global wheat prices
Wheat imports per capita
Countries impacted
2010 - Wheat Imports per Capita Per CapitaRank Country Metric tons Income Food - %
per million US$ of income1 UAE 370.659 47,400 92 Libya 242.803 12,062 373 Israel 238.968 27,085 184 Jordan 173.611 4,435 415 Algeria 101.439 4,477 446 Tunisia 89.330 4,160 367 Yemen 86.843 1,230 458 Egypt 81.284 2,771 399 Iraq 76.701 2,625 3510 Cuba 70.503 5,000 n/a
Soybeans
• 60% of world’s soybeans exported to China
• 83% of soybeans imported from US, Brazil, Argentina
• 16% demand increase - record 69 million metric tons
pigs
cows
chickens
Meat consumption quadrupled in 30 years, 75% protein from pork
Litres of water needed per kg:
vegetables - 322, pork - 6,000, beef 15,400
Environmental Challenges
• 300 million people live on <$2 / day
• 70% water unfit for human touch
• North China – half groundwater unfit for industry
• Coal processing consumes 1/6th of China’s water
• Pollution – northerners die 5.5 years earlier (coal heating)
• Air – Beijing ‘worst in world’? Particulate reaches US
• 20-30% cropland contaminated (arsenic, lead, mercury etc)
• Food safety/security
China - 34% income on food. UK – 9%
• 64% $ millionaires seeking 2nd residency
Arsenic in Yunnan
Environmental rehabilitation• $635 billion on water projects, e.g. South-to-North canal
• $76 billion on air
• $5 billion on soil
• $35 billion desertification
Drinking water for Beijing ‘pipeline from Lake Baikal’
Chinese Academy of Sciences, May 2014
Agricultural land
Model anti-desertification