China’s Space Plane Program

Richard Fisher, Senior FellowInternational Assessment and Strategy Center

www.strategycenter.netAugust 24, 2011

Summary

Presentation based on paper “China’s Space Plane Program,” IASC Web Page, July 27, 2011 http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.253/pub_detail.asp

China’s Space Plane ambitions date to the 1950s and were briefly at the forefront of China’s manned space vehicle deliberations in the late 1980s. Military requirements were at the basis of early preferences for space planes.

The “869 Program” of the Air Ministry considered five space plane proposals, and though all were dropped in favor of manned rockets, they helped propel space plane/hypersonic research.

Space plane goal likely revived by mid-1990s first as technology research programs. Shenlong (Divine Dragon) small space plane is a likely technology test platform; most likely glide tested by 2005 and powered hypersonic suborbital test reportedly in late 2010. Shenlong appears to mirror USAF X-37B in timing and size.

In 2006 Chinese engineers reveal initial space plane “road map” that reveals consideration of two nearterm concepts 1) reusable 7-ton payload space plane launched atop Long March 5 SLV; and 2) reusable sub orbital space plane that in turn launches 1-ton payload rocket. Longer term goals include fully reusable two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) and fully reusable single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicles.

Decision to proceed with nearterm concepts likely dependent on success of Shenlong, which is not known publicly. But in 2006 a Chinese engineer says RLV is possible by 2020 time frame.

Dual use space planes would be consistent with China’s dual use space program. Development of PLA strategy (doctrine) for space warfare would offer plenty of justification for space planes.

Military mission space planes could be tasked to perform that might include milsat maintenace, surveillance, ASAT or ground attack missions from Low Earth Orbit. Suborbital space planes could perform microsat launch, ASAT or hypersonic ground attack missions.

Qian Xuesen and Zhuang Fenggan, Early Space Plane Advocates

Standard narrative on Qian: In 1936 a brilliant physicist gets a prestigious scholarship to study in U.S, quickly makes major contributions to U.S. rocket science, helps found CalTech JPL and even interviews WW2 German scientists, but after being prevented from going back to China in 1950, is wrongly suspected by the FBI of sympathizing with Mao’s revolution, is deeply ashamed as career is put in limbo, then in 1955 is traded back to PRC for U.S. prisoners from Korean War. Long used to illustrate the excesses of the McCarthy period, this narrative is increasingly suspect but is a topic for another time.

A 1949 speech by Qian helped inspire the US X-20 DynaSoar space plane that helped lead the way to the Shuttle. From 1956 on, Qianbecomes a key figure in mobilizing China’s aerospace and rocket sector for advancing Communist Party power. Helps lead early manned space and ASAT initiatives of the 1960s and reportedly, in 1979 proposes an early Chinese space plane concept. Lauded as a major hero of science in service to the Party, he likely retains deep antipathy toward United States until his death in October 2009.

Zhuang Fenggan also came from China and studies under Qian at CalTech, which confers his PhD. in 1950. Biographic material indicates they shared an opposition to the Nationalist Government and may have sought to return to China at the same time. Zhuang, however is able to return to China after the start of the Korean War and in time is recruited to assist in the development of the PRC’s aerospace sector. From 1956 on he remains a protégé and close ally of Qian’s, assisting in missile, hypersonic and re-entry research, and following Deng’s ascension becomes a key senior aerospace expert contributing to major decisions. Though he helped opposed space plane development in the late 1980s, he emerges in the last decade as a high profile space plane advocate. He dies in November 2010.

869 Project and 863-204

By 1986 a large group of senior scientists convince Deng Xiaoping to start a large/broad program of basic science research to serve military and economic modernization goals called the “863 Program.”

Very quickly, a subsidiary 863 Program space project is established, with “863-204” responsible for quickly developing a Chinesemanned space access vehicle.

At about the same time the Air Ministry, sensing opportunity, starts its “869 Project” which advances space plane concepts to meet the goals of the 863 Program. This preference reflects their desire to compete with U.S., Soviet, French and Japanese space plane programs.

A key Chinese historical article* about this period makes clear that the Air Ministry was guided in particular by the military potential of space planes, to include consideration of space combat missions.

By 1989 the idea of developing a space plane loses to a rocket-based SLV, out of consideration of the higher risk, expense and delay in developing space planes, plus adverse publicity following the Challenger disaster. But this effort serves to create cadre of hypersonic and space plane related experts that will propel further space plane and hypersonic efforts.

* Li Chengzi and Zheng Xiaoqi (Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics), “The Debate Over Placing Priority on the Space Shuttle or Manned Spacecraft During Consideration of China’s Manned Space Program,” Science and Technology Review, Submitted August 2009.

869 Proposal: SAST Chang Cheng-1 (Great Wall-1)

A proposal of the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology and the 640 Institute of the Air Ministry.

Envisioned a 94 ton orbiter launched atop three-parallel HT-1 SLVs to a 200-500km orbit.

Only a 5-ton payload and maximum 5 personnel; most of orbiter weight taken up by fuel for “second stage” burn.

869 Proposal: CALT Tianjiao-1

China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) space plane “glider” totally dependent on booster to reach orbit. Orbiter weighs about 20-25 tons, with 2-3 ton payload.Likely influenced by French Hermes space plane. Likely modified version emerges in Chinese display at 2000 Hannover Expo.Possible lifting body based derivative featured in artwork for 2009 Chinese conference.

869 Proposal: SADI H-2 TSTO

Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute (SADI) produces only TSTO concept with air-breathing hypersonic reusable launch stage. Reusable launch stage weighs 198 tons and uses dual rocket and ramjet engine for Mach 5+ launch speed.Orbiter weighs 132 tons, with most of weight in fuel, very similar to CC-1 concept. Model of H-2 present in museum of the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. This concept has likely fueled much hypersonic related research in the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and universities of Shaaxni. This concept has likely influenced future Chinese space plane ambitions.

869 Proposal: CAC Co-production of French Dassault Hermes ?

In June 1982 the PLAAF and the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) send a delegation to test the Mirage-2000 fighter eying possible co-production. Mirage is too expensive but relationship apparently leads to discussion of Dassault’s Hermes space plane, which was sufficiently advanced by 1986 to merit consideration in the 863-204 program.

Chinese historical accounts relay that discussion led to consideration of Chinese co-production of the Hermes by CAC, but this was halted by the European Union Embargo following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre. So far, author cannot find French source confirmation of this potential deal.

Hermes starts as TSTO concept with reusable hypersonic first stage, but evolves to use rocket SLV. Advancing complexity, rising expense plus lower performance cause waning interest and Hermes is cancelled in early 1993. But for Tiananmen could this have been the PLA’s first space plane by the early in the last decade?

Author finds image of Hermes-like wind tunnel model during 1996 Zhuhai Airshow (bottom right).

1990s Hiatus to Shenlong (Divine Dragon) Test Platform

Zhang Zemin’s 1992 space program “921” has not been disclosed to include a space plane “phase” or program. Phase 3 of 921 concludes with lofting of 60-ton manned space station, reportedly slated for about 2020.

Goals of subsequent phases have not been made public, but could include manned Moon landing, Moon base, Mars and space planes.

Nevertheless, by 9th Five Year Plan (1996-2000) a decision is made to proceed with preliminary research that could lead to decision to commence a formal large space plane program during this decade.

By 10th Five Year Plan (2001-2005) work is underway for Shenlong (Divine Dragon) small space plane program as technology development platform.

Apparently, by end of 10th FYP, or 2005, the Shenlong makes unpowered air launched glide test launched by H-6 bomber from altitude of 4km. Configuration apparently evolves from wing-tip stabilizers to conventional vertical stabilizer.

Near to or soon after 11th FYP, perhaps end of 2010, Shenlong may have made powered Mach-15 hypersonic but 100km suborbital test atop Long March-2C SLV. Cryptic Shaanxi City TV program from 1/8/11 indicates Shenlong has achieved successful “test.” May have included horizontal/runway recovery.

It is not yet known if the Shenlong program will lead to larger platforms capable of orbital missions.

Possible Comparison: CAC Shenlong and Boeing X-37BShenlong (1) X-37B

Mission Technology demonstrator that could transition to military-mission capable space plane.

Same

Weight 3 tons (empty) to 4.8 tons or 5.1 tons to 7.5 tons (loaded)

4.9 tons

Length 8.6 or 9.9m 8.9mWingspan 4.2m 4.5mHeight 2.7m 2.9mLauncher LM-2C space launch vehicle or H-6 bomber Atlas-V SLVMain Contractor

Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute and/or CALT: overall design, ground control; China Aerospace Corporation: manufacturing; Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics: control system; Harbin Institute of Technology: thermal protection; Northwestern Polytechnical University; Northwest University: satellite navigation system

Boeing Corporation

Program Starts

2001, but program heritage dates to 1980s access to French Dassault Hermes program.

1999

First Unpowered Flight

2005 April 7, 2006

First Space Flight

2009 or 2010 but sub-orbital. Possible horizontal recovery.

April 22-December 3, 2010

1. Data for Shenlong based on informal data and is speculative.Sources: Chinese web sites cited in the article.

2006 CALT Roadmap: First Nearterm RLV ConceptAt the 2006 Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, three engineers from the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) lay out a road map for China’s reusable launch vehicles (RLVs).*

Their paper outlines four levels of space plane research/development: 1) Provides details about test article later revealed to be Shenlong, that will include an air launched glide and hypersonic suborbital test; 2) describes two nearterm space plane concepts for launching from Long March 5 SLV; 3) a longer term TSTO concept that will use an air breathing hypersonic first stage; and 4) a longer term ambition to develop a SSTO space plane.

The first near-term RLV concept has an estimated 32m length orbiter to be launched atop a Long March 5 SLV (due to be tested in 2014). This orbiter may be heavier than the Shuttle and Buran due to large fuel volume, but only has a 7 ton payload. Shows heritage of Chang Cheng-1.

Different illustrations raise possibility slower re-entry than Shuttle design. Internal fuel carriage raises possibility this may be an early “cross air vehicle,” a popular Chinese advanced aerospace concept. This orbiter conceivably could dip into upper atmosphere to perform “synergetic plane change” maneuvers with control surfaces to then rocket into a new orbit. This vehicle could be manned or unmanned.

At 2006 IAC Yong Yang tells Flight International that initial RLV could be ready by about 2020.

* Yong Yang, Defeng Hu and Menglun Yu (China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology), “Roadmap of Long March Reusable Launch Vehicle,” 57th International Astronautical Congress, Hyderabad, India, 2006, IAC-06-D2.4.03

Estimated Space Plane ComparisonCALT LM RLV Space Plane (1)

U.S. Space Shuttle Chang Cheng-1 Russian Buran

Length 32.5m 37m 24m 36.37mWing span 20m 23.79m 13m 23.92mOrbiter

Weight

120-140 tons 110 tons 94 tons 105 tons

Payload 7 tons 24+ tons 5 tons 30 tonsTotal Launch

Weight

700 tons 2,000 tons 1,015 tons 2,375 to

2,419 tons

Launch Mode

Single stack on top of LM-5 SLV first stage, boosted space plane “second stage”

Twin solid rocket boosters on large fuel tank for 3x space plane mounted engines

3x joined HT-1 SLVs, plus boosted space plane stage

Mounted on side of Energia rocket booster

Notes:

1. Estimated data.Sources: Yong Yang et al., op-cit; Du Tao et. al., op-cit; Li Chenzi, op-cit; Bart Hendrickx and Bert Vis, Energia-Buran, The Soviet Space Shuttle, Chichester: Praxis, 2007, p. 462-463; press reports, author estimates.

Second Nearterm RLV: Suborbital space plane

A second proposed RLV is much different. Called a “reusable sub orbital vehicle” or “RBS,” it would be a 100 ton space planewith a rocket engine.

It would be designed to fly up speeds less than Mach 10 to launch a second rocket stage that would place a 1ton payload in orbit. Very likely this vehicle in unmanned.

Article appears to indicate the two or four RBS could be launched around a core Long March 5 booster, but this is not clear. Space plane could also constitute the first stage.

2006 CALT article makes clear that progress with RLV is dependent on progress in five areas: Aerothermodynamics; Thermal protection system; Rocket propulsion; Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) avionics; Structure.

In a 2010 IAC paper, engineers from Northwestern Polytechnical University state a clear preference for the RBS concept as it would easier to develop such a vehicle.

Force Multiplier: Tian Lian TDRSTwo Tian Lian TRDS satellites launched in 2008 and 2011. Possibly a third is planned.

Initially intended to support Tiangong missions but will also support Space Station and Chinese engineering literature suggests they will also support future hypersonic aircraft, which could also include space planes.

China’s Dual Use Space Program

China’s space program is at its highest level commanded by the People’s Liberation Army with the General Armaments Department of the Central Military Commission being the principle command and leadership authority. Having initiated strategy (doctrine) development to “combine air and space,” it is expected that the PLA Air Force will also soon command active military space assets. Could space planes become a principle PLAAF space platform while GAD controls the rockets? Or will the PLAAF come to control suborbital space planes?

Precedents for manned space program also being dual use include the use of all unmanned and manned Shenzhou missions to date to serve some military mission. For Shenzhou-5, China’s first manned flight, astronaut Yang Liwei shares ride with two surveillance cameras in the orbital module.

In September 2008, Shenzhou-7 passes to a distance of 45km from the International Space Station just after launching its BX-1 microsatellite. Was this a simulated co-orbital combat interception? Sadly there has been no public comment from U.S. or Russian space agencies about this incident.

Tiangong space station development craft contains two cavities for stowing surveillance equipment or for launching nanosatellites.

Larger 60-ton space station copies modular concept of the Russian Mir space station, which had purpose designed military modules and was considered as a potential combat vehicle space station.

China’s forays to the Moon and to the Lagrangian Points will likely also feature early dual use elements.

Military Uses for PLA Space Planes

Should the PLAAF become the principle user of future Chinese space planes they will perform a range of military missions. For orbital space planes these could include:

Earth or space surveillance.

Military satellite deployment and maintenance.

Covert deployment of military equipment or modules to space stations.

Anti-satellite surveillance and attack with kinetic and/or microwave weapons.

Ground attack.

Military missions for suborbital space planes could include:

Attacking near-space assets beyond the reach of usual surface-to-air missiles.

Deployment of military satellites.

Deploying anti-satellite SLVs to distant launch points.

Hypersonic deployment of a range of payloads to perform surveillance or attack missions against ground targets.

Cautionary Tale: Professor Zhang Litong

The case of Zhang Litong, Professor and leader of ceramic matrix composite (CMC) research at the Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU), was revealed during the course of research on Chinese space plane and hypersonic issues.

Zhang was a star graduate of NPU in 1961 with expertise in high temperature casting techniques for metals, and in the 1970s to 1980s was involved in the PLA’s failed attempt to reverse engineer the British Rolls Royce Spey turbofan.

In 1987, likely in direct response to the rise of the 869 and 863-204 programs, her career is redirected to develop China’s early competency in ceramic matrix composites to support future thermal protection system goals.

Then in April 1989 she receives a windfall; an invitation to be a Senior Visiting Fellow via NASA’s Center for Commercial Development, then associated with NASA’s Lewis (now John Glenn) Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. There she pursues research on CMCs, aids graduate students and is even offered monetary rewards (which she declines) for her research.

Despite the 1989 Tiananmen arms embargo she does not return to China until 1991, “with her foreign research,” and starts developing NPU into a major center for CMC and thermal protection research, earning a prestigious “Key National Laboratory” under her leadership. In 2005 she receives a high prestige award from Premier Wen Jiabao and is regularly lauded as a “hero” exemplifying how China’s science serves the goals of the Communist Party.

Her research is also assisting the development of new 10-1 TWR turbofan engines. It is the visit to her labs in early January 2011 by a Provincial Governor (right) that leads to new insight into NPU’s contribution to the Shenlong space plane and to the possible revelation of its “successful” test flight.