GeoJournal 21.1/2 7 1 - 7 2 © 1990 (May/June) by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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China's Agricultural Labour Force Transfer Cheng Lu, Prof., East China Normal University, Department of Geography, Shanghai 200062, PR China

Major Direction of Current Agricultural Labour Force Transfer

China is the most populous country in the world, and agriculture had been dominant in the country for a very long period. In recent years, however, owing to the government reform of the national economic system, the production responsibility system and the new economic policy have been introduced in the vast rural hinterland. As a result, the enthusiasm of innumerable peasant farmers for production has been brought into full play. A spectacular number of rural enterprises ranging over industry, construction, transportation, trading and service have developed with the increase of rural pro- ductivity and commercial rates for agricultural products. Aiming at the market both at home and abroad, these enterprises are under a combined management. The rural production structure has been gradually readjusted. The transfer of surplus rural labour from agricultural to non-agricultural activities has also changed the occu- pation structure of the countryside.

Rapid development of rural township enterprises can bring local natural and labour resources into full use, producing goods needed locally, and for export to earn foreign currency. There is also an increase of state tax revenues and the income of peasant farmers. The accu- mulated funds can be utilized for the construction of small towns, expansion of production and supporting local agriculture. Even more important is the develop- ment of employment opportunities for the agricultural labour surplus (this is estimated nationally as about 100 million persons), and so reduce the pressure on cities caused by urban migration. To cite some figures as examples: for the last nine years, the output value of rural enterprises has been growing at an annual rate of 28%, and the amount of tax generated totalled more than 61 billion yuan. The total industrial income of peasant farmers reached to more than 210 billion yuan, and the fund for supporting agriculture accounted for more than 14 billion yuan. In 1987, 85 millions of the agricultural labour surplus transferred to non-agri-

cultural sectors, mostly to the township enterprises, without a change of residence. For the first time in China's rural history, the value of non-agricultural pro- duction will surpass that of agricultural production (1).

The township enterprises have become not only the mainstay of rural socio-economic development but also the targets to which the agricultural labour surplus transfers. This transfer is, of course, an occupation shift without change of residence.

There are many heavily populated provinces but with little land for expansion, such as Jiangshu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan and Shandong, where the agricultural labour surplus is mostly absorbed by local township enterprises. Some of the surplus labour, however, in order to earn more income, move as seasonal migrants to inland or remote provinces such as Heilongjiang, Neimong, Xingjiang, Qinhai, Tibet, Yunnan and Guiz- hou to be engaged mainly in handicraft, construction, trading and services. They leave home in spring and return in winter. The seasonal migrants have not only increased their income and extended their skills and techniques, but also have promoted the commodity economy in remote regions. Much of the agricultural labour surplus has moved to coastal cities (such as Shanghai and Beijing) as seasonal migrants, similarly engaged in construction, trading and services. According to incomplete statistics, in the two provinces of Jiangshu and Zhejiang alone seasonal out-migrants number above one million. It is difficult to estimate the nationwide total owing to the marked mobility of the migrants.

Some Viewpoints about Migration to Northwest and Urbanization

With the rural economic development and conti- nuous growth of population it is likely that the agri- cultural labour surplus moving to non-agricultural acti- vities will continue to grow. Of China's total population at the end of 1985 of 1046 million, about 500 million were economically active. Of these 310 million were

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engaged in agriculture, 62% of the total. It is estimated that by the year 2000 the total population of China will reach 1250 million and the economically active 680 million, while the number of agricultural workers will possibly remain the same. This estimate is based on an annual increase of the labour force by 1.2 million. So the question must be asked: what will happen to the rural labour surplus?

The following is a brief account of my personal views:

1. Migration to the Northwest?

China has vast territory, but most of its population dwell in the humid and semihumid areas to the SE of the Aihui (located in Heilongjiang province) - Tengchong (located in Yunnan province) - line. According to the 1982 population census, the area SE of the line represents 42.9% of China, but the population dwelling there accounts for 94.4% of the national total. The area NW of the line accounts for 57.1% of China, but the population makes up only 5.6% of the national total (2).

The NW part of China is sparsely populated, but is rich in mineral resources. This part of the country is basically arid and semi-arid with a large cold high mountainous area in addition to the Gobi desert. It is unlikely that either the mountains or the Gobi can receive further population. Almost all the arable land capable of development has already been utilized over a long period of time. According to incomplete statistics, during the period of 1950-82, about 15 million people from populous provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Hebei migrated in a planned or organized way to the NW provinces like Heilongjiang, Neimong, Ningxia, Qinhai, and Xingjiang, mainly to reclaim wasteland (3). It is now definitely impossible to organize further large scale migration there for land reclamation.

It is by no means easy to develop the NW part of the country without a population of certain quantity and quality, despite the mineral wealth of the region. Because of the scarcity of water resources the ecological environment is rather fragile. It should be noted that there must be a coordination of economic, population, resource, and environmental development even if the state has enough funds to be invested into the construc- tion of industries, transport and new cities there before the year 2000. The inmigrants from the populous SE part of the country should be controlled in number. But the priority should be given to the inmigration to those with special skills. Inmigration of excessive labour force will certainly disturb the balance of the natural and eco- logical systems of the NW.

2. Aggregation in Cities?

A nation's economic development level is measured, to a certain extent, in terms of the ratio of the rural labour force to the total labour force. The ratio is

smaller in developed countries but much greater in less developed ones. For a period, China has had almost 80% of its labour force engaged in agriculture. Low levels of urbanization illustrate the rural poverty and low productivity agriculture in China. In 1949, China's urban population totalled 57.65 million, or 10.6% of its total 541.67 million. In 1982, it reached 211.54 million, or 20.8% of its total population of 1015.41 million (4). So China has had a slow rate of urbanization, and this will be accelerated only if there is a change in attitude. For various reasons cities are not able to offer enough jobs to the ever-increasing labour force. If all the surplus agricultural labour migrated to the cities, the state would be heavily burdened with subsidies for food and with problems of housing, education and employment. For a state-owned enterprise to employ a worker requires an average investment of ten thousand yuan for fixed assets. If ten million migrants were employed in the cities each year, the state would have to raise more than 100 billion yuan in addition to its planned investment in capital constructions. And this is beyond the current financial capacity of the state (5). However, the state could alleviate this potential financial burden by developing village and township enterprises so as to absorb the agricultural labour surplus without migration. We must develop small enterprises as well as expanding the large and medium-sized. Small industrial enterprises can succeed in rural areas because of advantages in natural resources and markets. The needs of the market can be met at different levels where large or medium- sized state-owned enterprises in cities fail.

Under the condition of limited financial capacity currently faced by the state, the best policy is to encourage peasant farmers to open up village or township enterprises and to build small towns with their accumulated funds. Economic development will then proceed rapidly. Of course, there will still be some migration to the cities as well as the development of village or township enterprises, increase in income for peasant farmers, increase of small towns both in number and size, as well as self-sustained growth of urban population in large and medium-sized cities. According to an estimate, China's actual proportion of urban population (i.e. non-agricultural population) by the year 2000 would possibly account for 30% of its total of 1.25 billion. But it will vary in pattern and rate of develop- ment owing to the vast area of territory, great regional differences, imbalance of regional economic develop- ment, as well as the varied levels of urbanization between coastal and inland regions, and between the plains and mountainous regions.

Notes

(1) People's Daily, December 22, 1987 (2) 'China's First Map of Population Density', People's Daily,

March 13, 1988 (3) Nankai Economic Studies 1987 (4) China's Statistical Year Book 1985 (5) Hongqi, p. 20, August 16, 1987