ChinaChinas’s New Model - LarrainVial · Microsoft PowerPoint - 2013_03Mar05_LarrainVial_ARK.pptx...
Transcript of ChinaChinas’s New Model - LarrainVial · Microsoft PowerPoint - 2013_03Mar05_LarrainVial_ARK.pptx...
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China’sChina s New ModelA d Wh t It MAnd What It Means
For Latin America
Arthur KKroeber March 2013
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China is still growin
1. GDP growth will average 7% in 201
2. Structural reforms are necessary fodeliver enough despite political op
3 Th h d i i l d hif i3. The growth driver is already shiftin
4 D d f i t t i i f t4. Demand for investment in infrastrustrong and will be a key swing facto
5. Financial liberalization is moving faaccount opening is constrained byaccount opening is constrained by
ng – but differently
12-20, down from 11% in 2002-11
or that level of growth; new leaders will position and debt constraints
f i ig from investment to consumption
t h i d l t i tillucture, housing and new plant is still or
aster than many realize, but capital financial repression elsewherefinancial repression elsewhere
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Catch-up growth still has a long way to run
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Slower growth does not meaan China gets less important
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Policy shifts from cyclical man
• Government’s ability to smoot
d i i i d band investment is constrained b
ratios
• Achieving potential growth re
capital allocation:
o Financial liberalization (highe( g
o Competition (curtai
o Fiscal (improo Fiscal (impro
o Factor prices (energ
• New leaders will pursue reform• New leaders will pursue reform
incrementally
nagement to structural reform
th cycles by pumping up credit
b hi h i d d bby high investment and debt
quires reforms to improve
er return on investment))
il SOEs and local protectionism)
ove local govt incentives)ove local govt incentives)
gy, water, land)
m but cautiously andm, but cautiously and
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One policy constraint: Deebt levels are now higher
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Another constraint: Tight job markeet means more inflationary pressure
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Diminishing returns fromm a high investment rate
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How low could inve
Average real AveragePeriod
Average real growth in
investment
Averagegrowth inconsump
1996-2000 8.8% 8.9%
2001-2005 14.6% 8.6%
2006-2010 16.4% 11.1%
2011-2015e 6.5% 10.4%
2016-2020e 3.2% 9.8%
estment growth go?
e real Investmente real n final ption
Average real GDP growth
Investment ratio at end of
period
% 8.6% 34%
% 9.8% 40%
% 11.2% 46%
% 7.8% 44%
% 6.7% 39%
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‘Acceleration’ means fast growwth in high-value consumption
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Income inequality means a ffat tail of affluent consumers
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External imbalances are much less severe
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No capital misallocation: Returns in industry rise as state role shrinks
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A chronic houssing shortageWe estimate China’s urban housing stock to comprise around 170-180m units of independent housing (those with their own kitchen and bathroom) by 2012.
This is significantly less than the total number of urban households. The remaininghouseholds. The remaining “under-housed” population is mostly migrant workers whose living quarters do not meet the definition of independent housing.
Th t l d b tThe government-led boost in the construction of low-cost housing since 2009 will help gradually address thishelp gradually address this shortage.
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De facto interest rate libberalization is advancing
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A switch to promoting rather thhan restricting portfolio capital
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The changing environmeLast decade
F h
Revenue
• Fast growth as most main early stages of developmentLi it d titi d
Revenue • Limited competition dustructural undersupply
• All firms have pricing po
Costs
• Plentiful supply of laborlow prices
Costs • Low and undifferentiatereal interest rates
Winners
• Fast-growing markets reward those who can efirst and expand capacitfirst and expand capacitmost quickly
nt for Chinese companiesNext decade
k G h i l l larkets
t
• Growth in sales volume slows as markets mature
• More competition as it t h tue to
ower
capacity catches up to demand
• Pricing power falls
r at • Restricted labor supply; high and rising wages
ed • Higher and more differentiated cost of capital
enter ty
• Slower-growing, more crowded markets reward those who can control costs
ty and develop durable competitive advantages
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Implications fo
• Strong Chinese commodity growth is far lower; volumes a
• Markets for consumer goodsfaster than many expect; but cy p ;
• Financial liberalization will cforeign portfolio investors; bu
• Chinese capital goods / inframore foreign business as dommore foreign business as dom
r Latin America
demand will remain, but the and prices will be stable
s and services will expand competition will be fiercep
ontinue, with benefits to ut progress will be gradual
astructure firms will seek mestic market slowsmestic market slows
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