China Influence DA Neg Supplement

7/29/2019 China Influence DA Neg Supplement

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Georgetown 2011-12[File Name] [Name]

NSP THREATENS CHINA

United states space policy (nsp) threatens Chinas security.Bao Shixiu 11, senior fellow of military theory studies and international relations at the Institute forMilitary Thought Studies, Academy of Military Sciences of the PLA of China, director of the Institute, avisiting scholar at the Virginia Military Institute in the United States, China Security, Winter 2007, pp.2 11, http://www.wsichina.org/cs5_1.pdf

The NSP presents a number of challenges to Chinas security environment. First, it grants the UnitedStates with exclusive rights to space: the right to use any and all necessary means to ensure Americansecurity while at the same time denying adversaries access to space for hostile purposes. This sets upan inequitable environment of haves and have-nots in space, raising suspicion amongst nations. Forinstance, the NSP declares that U.S. space systems should be guaranteed safe passage over allcountries without exception (such as interference by other countries, even when done for the purpose ofsafeguarding their sovereignty and their space integrity). With its significant space assets and militaryspace capabilities, this situation gives the United States an obvious and unfair strategic advantage inspace. Second, it refutes international restrictions and undercuts potential international agreements thatseek to constrain Americas use of space. This effectively undermines any potential initiatives put forth by

the international community to control space weaponization initiatives that China supports. This U.S.position leads the global community to suspect U.S. unilateralist intentions in space. Lastly, while thepolicy may not state it explicitly, a critical examination of its contents suggest its intention to dissuade anddeter other countries, including China, from possessing space capabilities that can challenge the UnitedStates in any way a parameter that would effectively disallow China to possess even a minimum meansof national defense in space. The resultant security environment in space is one with one set of rules forthe United States and another set of rules for other nations. In such a context, only U.S. security concernsare taken into account with a result of the reinforcement of a zero-sum dynamic to which space is alreadyprone and threatens to pressure others into a military space race.

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US SPACE EFFECTS CHINAChina pursues space because of American space activities.Theresa Hitchens 03, one of the leading U.S. analysts on U.S. military space policy, Monsters andshadows pg 25, 2003, http://www.unidir.org/pdf/articles/pdf-art1884.pdf

However, as indicated, much of Chinas interest in space seems to stem directly from concernsabout American military activities in space. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Chinas worriesabout protecting its space-based assets are due to concern about American development of missiledefences and future American global dominance as a result of American space power.47 Indeed, at the7 February 2002 meeting of the CD, Hu specifically mentionedAmerican actions as a key reason thatnegotiations on the weaponization of space should commence quickly. Now that the ABM [Anti-Ballistic Missile] Treaty has been scrapped and efforts are being stepped up to develop missile defenceand outer space weapon systems, there is an increasing risk of outer space being weaponized, hesaid.

If U.S. acts alone in space, China will react.Joan Johnson-Freese 4, Chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the UnitedStates Naval War College, Chinese Chess in Space, January 2004,

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/chinese-chess-space

The third alternative focuses on cooperation. The US has a long and successful tradition of internationalcooperation in space. Especially in the areas of space science and environmental monitoring, the US hashistorically viewed space as an opportunity to build bridges with countries while simultaneously co-optingthem into working on areas of our choice, rather than areas not to our liking. Cooperation is clearly thebetter option with China, too. The US could start slowly, rewarding Beijing for reciprocity and transparencyby granting China an increasingly larger role in a joint program of manned exploration and development.Specifically, a US proposal to multilaterally review and expand the future of manned space exploration -from the ISS to another lunar voyage or even a Mars mission - on an incremental, inclusive basis wouldallow Washington to revitalize American space leadership. Crucially, it would also give the US a means toinfluence the future direction of the Chinese space program. This option would counter the prevailing viewof the US as a unilateralist hegemon and allow for a focus on infrastructure development that does notrequire unrealistic budget burdens. While there is the risk of international politics intruding into theprocess over time, that is counterbalanced by the vested interest such a program would give participantsin system stability. To be sure, there would be resistance to working with China. Washington is repletewith individuals adamantly objecting to cooperation with China on grounds from human rights to its statusas the largest remaining communist country. Isolating China, however, is increasingly a stancecounterproductive to US interests, as a world without China is simply not possible. US and Chineseinterests frequently overlap, on North Korea and the Global War on Terror, for example, not to mentioneconomics. The United States has a window of opportunity to step in and use space cooperation to itsadvantage. Because space is considered so critical to the futures of both the US and China, any activityby one has been considered zero-sum by the other, triggering an action-reaction cycle and threateningescalation into an arms race of technology and countermeasure development. That direction can bechanged. A inclusive vision will give the US an opportunity to assume the mantle of leadership on amission that could inspire the world and shift Chinese activities into areas more compatible with USinterests. On the geostrategic Wei Qi board, cooperation is the best "next move" for the US.

Chinas space program is accelerating because U.S. program is in turmoil.Clara Moskowitz 10, space.com Senior Writer, China's Lofty Goals: Space Station, Moon and MarsExploration, December 2010, http://www.space.com/10431-china-lofty-goals-space-station-moon-mars-exploration.html

China is shifting its space program into high gear, with recently announced goals to build a manned spacestation by 2020 and send a spacecraft to Mars by 2013 ? all on the heels of its second robotic moonmission this year. Yet some space analysts worry that China's ascendancy in space means the waning of

American superiority in spaceflight. The United States is retiring its storied space shuttle fleet in 2011 andplans to rely on commercial spaceships for orbital flights, once they're available, while planning future

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deep-space missions. "Certainly [the Chinese] see it as an opportunity to garner prestige at a time whenthe U.S. space program is in what some people call turmoil, and what others call regrouping," said JoanJohnson-Freese, chairwoman of the department of national security studies at the Naval War College inNewport, R.I., and an expert on China's space program. Among Americans, she said, "there is theperception that China is somehow getting ahead, that the U.S. is sliding behind."

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EAST ASIA STABLE

Strong China guarantees stability.David C. Kang 09, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East AsiaReview, , 2009 - 274 pages

Throughout the past three decades East Asia has seen more peace and stability than at any time sincethe Opium Wars of 1839-1841. During this period China has rapidly emerged as a major regional power,averaging over nine percent economic growth per year since the introduction of its market reforms in1978. Foreign businesses have flocked to invest in China, and Chinese exports have begun to flood theworld. China is modernizing its military, has joined numerous regional and international institutions, andplays an increasingly visible role in international politics. In response to this growth, other states in East

Asia have moved to strengthen their military, economic, and diplomatic relations with China. But whyhave these countries accommodated rather than balanced China's rise? David Kang believes certainpreferences and beliefs are responsible for maintaining stability in East Asia. Kang's research shows howEast Asian states have grown closer to China, with little evidence that the region is rupturing. Risingpowers present opportunities as well as threats, and the economic benefits and military threat Chinaposes for its regional neighbors are both potentially huge; however, East Asian states see substantiallymore advantage than danger in China's rise, making the region more stable, not less. Furthermore,

although East Asian states do not unequivocally welcome China in all areas, they are willing to deferjudgment regarding what China wants and what its role in East Asia will become. They believe that astrong China stabilizes East Asia, while a weak China tempts other states to try to control the region.Many scholars downplay the role of ideas and suggest that a rising China will be a destabilizing force inthe region, but Kang's provocative argument reveals the flaws in contemporary views of China and theinternational relations of East Asia and offers a new understanding of the importance of sound U.S. policyin the region.

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CHINA SPACE RAISES SOFT POWERSpace programs raise Chinas soft powerFreese 07, Summer 07, Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese is a Professor of National Security Affairs at theNaval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, Chinas space ambitions,http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=china+AND+%22space+program%22+AND+%28%28%22soft+power%22%29%28credibility%29%28diplomacy%29%29&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C9&as_sdtp=on

As previously mentioned, in March 2007, the Commission of Science, Technology and Industryfor National Defense (COSTIND) announced Chinas first plan for space science development.Included in the plans is the countrys first astronomy satellite, to carry a hard X-ray modulationtelescope, to be launched in 2010. Additionally three international cooperative projects are to beimplemented in the five-year period covered by the plan. Those include two missions with Russia ,including an unmanned mission to Mars, and the Small Explorer for Solar Eruptions (SMESE) missionwith France to observe solar flares and coronal mass ejections during the next Solar Maximum in about2011. The emphasis on international cooperation in these projects is not surprising. China understandsthe value of cooperation in the sense of both climbing the scientific and engineering learning curves fasterin some instances, but also in maximizing resources and building soft power relationships with othercountries. Not just in space science, but in all areas, China has reached out and been largely successfulin establishing a network of space partnerships.

China space program is key to soft powerDe Sa 10, Tiago Moreira de S is guest assistant professor in New University of Lisbon and researcherat the Portuguese Institute for International Relations, CHINAS SPACE PROGRAM: A NEW TOOL FORPRC SOFT POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS?Space has become another area where China is exerting its soft power. It is positioning itself as a spacebenefactor to the developing world -the same countries in some cases, whose natural resources Chinacovets. China not only designed, built and launched a satellite oil rich Nigeria but also combined it with amajor loan to help pay the costs . It has signed a similar contract with Venezuela and is developing anearth observation satellite system with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru andThailand. 50 In addition to serving national security and domestic civilian use of space, Chinas spaceactivities are also being used as a tool for diplomacy. The nations space related international cooperation

efforts, which began with a bilateral arrangement for satellite development, have blossomed to include theestablishment of satellite tracking stations and a leading role in multilateral frameworks. Chinas pursuit ofsuch international cooperation is expected to expand in the future, and will likely help the nation to secureits necessary supply of resources and energy. In light of this posture and Chinas growing efforts toprovide African nations with official development assistance and debt relief, projects like the China-Nigeria partnership in communication satellite development and launches can be seen as examples ofChinas exploitation of space activities as a diplomatic tool.

China space program raises diplomacyDay 2008, October 13, Dwayne A. Day is the associate editor of Raumfahrt Concret, a Germanspaceflight magazine, and frequently writes about space history and policy, The New path to Space: Indiaand China enter the game.

According to Cheng, the PRC sees space as promoting zonghe guojia liliang, or comprehensivenational security . It improves the national economy both by raising Chinas level of science andtechnology and generating high-tech jobs, and serves national security, both through military security anddiplomacy . It is this latter point that often gets ignored in the West. The PRC uses space as a diplomatictool, Cheng noted, citing several recent examples including satellite sales to Venezuela and Nigeria, thesharing of satellite data, and Chinas membership in the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.Potential future efforts include offering insurance for space missions and training foreign astronauts.

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CHINESE SOFT POWER GOOD

China soft power key to African infrastructureDavid Musyoka, Student at Scott Christian University, PeterMutai, MANAGER at NICBANK LIMITED, and Ben Ochieng 11, Program Officer at Population Council,

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/17/c_13694941.htm

Use of soft power diplomacy will continue to be a key driver of China's strengthened relationswith Africa and likely to propel China to higher global economic and military influence it currentlycommands, analysts say. "China is a major global economic player and while it's not possible toknow how far the use of soft power can propel it," said Dr Moses Kavanga, executive director ofEast Africa Institute of Political Studies. "In Africa, soft power has worked so well for China,"Kavanga told Xinhua in an exclusive interview ahead of the Chinese leader' s visit to United Statesthis week. He said the important outcome of the growing China-Africa relations is the constructionand reconstruction of infrastructure especially roads, water works and hospitals happening inmuch faster pace than when Africa exclusively relied on the west as its strategic global partner

China helps African infrastructure

Fei Liena, writer for the English News, Xiong Sihao, author for the Beijing Review,09, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/29/content_10731854.htm

However, over the past 20 to 30 years, Africa's focus has been on the development ofcommunication and education, infrastructure has been neglected and constrained by a lack offinance, that's why China's involvement in Africa's infrastructure building "has had fundamentaland transformative impact", said the prime minister. "Chinese companies have the ability to doquality work, do it in time, and with competitive prices," said Meles: "They have penetrated theAfrican market in general, and the Ethiopian market in particular. And this has made a major impacton Africa's implementation of infrastructure projects." The Chinese government and bankshave provided billions of U.S. dollars worth of loans for the infrastructure projects in Ethiopia,said he, including 1.5 billion dollars in telecommunications and nearly one billion in otherinfrastructure projects. He also believes similar scale of loans are provided by China to other Africancountries.

Deterioration of infrastructure deepens poverty.Asia Report 11, sub group of crisis report, Central Asia: Decay and Decline, February,http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/201-central-asia-decay-and-decline.aspx

The consequences of this neglect are too dire to ignore. The rapid deterioration of infrastructure will

deepen poverty and alienation from the state. The disappearance of basic services will provide Islamic

radicals, already a serious force in many Central Asian states, with further ammunition against

regional leaders and openings to establish influential support networks. Economic development and

poverty reduction will become a distant dream; the poorest states will become ever more dependent

on the export of labour. Anger over a sharp decline in basic services played a significant role in theunrest that led to the overthrow of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010. It could well

play a similar role in other countries, notably Tajikistan, in the not too distant future. Events in one

state can quickly have a deleterious effect on its neighbours. A polio outbreak in Tajikistan in 2010

required large-scale immunisation campaigns in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and

triggered reports of infection as far away as Russia. Central Asia may also be negatively affected by its

neighbours: a further decline in infrastructure is likely to coincide with increasing instability in

Afghanistan, and a possible spilloverof the insurgency there. The needs are clear, and solutions to the

decline in infrastructure are available. The fundamental problem is that the vital prerequisites are

steps that Central Asias ruling elites are unwilling to take. These amount to nothing less than a total

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repudiation of regional leaders values and behaviour. They would need to purge their governments of

top-to-bottom systemic corruption; cease using their countries resources as a source of fabulous

wealth for themselves and their families; and create a meritocracy with decent pay that would free

officials from the need to depend on corruption to make ends meet. All these changes are so far from

current realities that foreign governments and donors may dismiss them as hopelessly idealistic. Yet

without organised change from above, there is a growing risk of chaotic change from below. Donorsare doing nothing to prevent such a scenario. Their cautious approach seems driven by the desire not

to upset regional leaders, rather than using the financial levers at their disposal to effect real change.

Aid is often disbursed to fulfil annual plans or advance broader geopolitical aims. Donors have made

no effort to form a united front to push for real reform. Without their involvement, the status quo can

stumble along for a few more years, perhaps, but not much longer. Collapsing infrastructure could

bring down with it enfeebled regimes, creating enormous uncertainty in one of the most fragile parts of the

world.

Africa is in poverty due to infrastructure

LaRouche 10, August 11, Lyndon Hermyle LaRouche, Jr. is an American political activist and

founder of a network of political committees, parties, and publications known collectively as the LaRouche

movement

When one thinks ofAfrica , one thinks ofa continent that is lagging behind the rest of the World . The

satellite photograph here shows Africa at night, literally the Dark Continent, due to the lack of

infrastructure development. The lack of physical power in Africa, not only puts Africa in the dark, it means

poverty and want and the inability for high end economic production. Of course, in part, that is the result

of the deliberate policy of Europe and America to prevent development of Africa. The policy is to keep

Africa divided and primitive, and make of it one big game park, with exotic animals and people. How

about an opposite policy that favors and promotes African development into the 21rst Century for a

change, and let's get our first African President to back it! Here are remarks by Lyndon LaRouche on the

topic.

Poverty is the deadliest form of structural violence it is equivalent to an ongoing nuclear war.Gilligan, 96 [James, Former Director of Mental Health for the Massachusetts Prison System,Violence, p.]In other words, every fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative povertyas would be killed in a nuclear that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to threetimes as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide ofthe Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unenending, in factaccelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide,perpetuated on the weak and poor ever year of everydecade, throughout the world.

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CHINA SOFT POWER INCREASING

China is using its soft power as a threat

ERICH FOLLATH, reporter for the German Der Spiegel magazine, July 29, 2010,http://abcnews.go.com/International/chinas-soft-power-threat-united-states/story?

id=11277294

Beijing is happy to use its soft power to get what it wants -- and it is wrong-footing the West atevery turn. Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen once told me, half with amusement andhalf with resignation, that military people around the world are all more or less the same. "They canonly be happy when they have the most up-to-date toys ," he said. If this is true, Beijing's generalsmust be very happy at the moment. China has increased its military budget by 7.5 percent in 2010,making funds available for new fighter jets and more cruise missiles. Beijing's military buildup is asource of concern for Western experts, even though the US's military budget is about eight timeslarger. Some feel that China poses a threat to East Asia, while others are even convinced thatBeijing is preparing to conquer the world militarily.

Chinese soft power rising

Jacques DeLisle 10, director of the Asia Program at FPRI,http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5404/delisle.chinataiwan.pdf

Chinas accretion and use of soft power can be a palliative, genuinely allaying other statesworries about a China threat. Short of that, soft power can divert other states foreignpolicymaking from assessments based solely on Chinas growing capabilities into more complexones focusing on intent as well, giving Beijing a second front or a second chance to dissuadebalancing or containment-oriented responses. Or, more modestly still, Chinas soft power assetsand initiatives can provide arguments (or at least cover) for those in policy circles abroad whooppose stronger reactions to Chinas rise, whether rooted in calculations of national or narrowerparochial interest, political preference, expectations of opportunities to free ride on U.S.-providedinternational security public goods, or other reasons. As Chinas hard power resources continue torise and Beijing undertakes efforts to cultivate and employ greater soft power, the PRC may turn to relyingon soft power to pursue more assertive and potentially status quo-altering ends, but it has not done soyet. Taiwan is a major element in Chinas soft power agenda, and one toward which Chinas aims havelong been less than fully pro-status quo. Taiwan is both the immediate target of some PRC uses of softpower and the indirect object of others, primarily those seeking to undermine other statessupport for conferral of state-like status on the Republic of China (ROC)/Taiwan.

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HEGE CARDS

China space key to hegemonyPollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center forIntelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology duringthe tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?

AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfChinas burgeoning space program provides opportunities for China to use the benefits derived fromspace power to become a more influential and respected nation. While China does not have an officialgrand strategy, the Chinese leadership appears to have reached a consensus on a plan which sustainsthe conditions necessary for economic growth and military modernization in the context of operating in aunipolar world dominated by the United States . This strategy is designed to ultimately usher in amultipolar world in which China is one of several great powers by protecting Chinas core nationalinterests against external threats and by shaping the international system in which it operates.

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ZERO SUM

China space raises soft power which is key to heg and is zero sum.Pollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center forIntelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology duringthe tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?

AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfChinas efforts to develop its space program to transform itself into an economically and technologicallypowerful country may also come at the expense of U.S. leadership in both absolute and relative terms .China has also been able to use its space program to further its diplomatic objectives and to increase itsinfluence in the developing world and among second-tier space powers . Chinas increasingly capablespace program will have a net negative-sum effect on the United States and requires both domestic andinternational responses by the United States.

China space key to world influencePollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center forIntelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology duringthe tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?

AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfChinas grand strategy is reflected in its pursuit of space power. Chinas space program is intended toportray China as a modernizing nation that is committed to the peaceful uses of space while at the sametime serving Chinas political, economic, and military interests . It contributes to Chinas overall influenceand provides capabilities that give China more freedom of action and opportunities for internationalleadership . With the exception of its ASAT test in January 2007, China has been able to conduct many ofthese activities without directly challenging the United States in space. Indeed, despite the dual-usenature of space technology, China is loathe to mention the military utility of it space program. Chinasprogress in space technologies, however, has many negativesum aspects for the United States whichmay lead to confrontation or competition in space.

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CHINA IS A WORLD POWER.China is a world power.Shaun Breslin 10, University of Warwick, Chinas Emerging Global Role, 2010http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9256.2010.01385.x/pdf

China has (re-)emerged as a great power in a world not of its own making. The distribution of power inmajor organisations and the dominant norms of international interactions are deemed to favour unfairlythe existing Western powers, and at times obstruct China's ability to meet national development goals.Nevertheless, engaging the global economy has been a key source of economic growth (thus helping tomaintain regime stability), and establishing China's credentials as a responsible global actor is seen as ameans of ensuring continued access to what China needs. As an emerging great power which is also stillin many respects a developing country, China's challenge is to change the global order in ways that donot cause global instability or generate crises that would damage China's own ability to generateeconomic growth and ensure political stability. Chinese understandings of China's place in the world canbe summed up by the content of two separate news items from the same day. The first pointed to China'sglobal economic reach and significance. It was simply no longer possible for the existing powers to ignoresuch an important economic force and China had to be a central component of any new mechanisms ofglobal governance, Chinese interests and ideas had to be taken more seriously, and the existing powerstructures had to be revised to take account of China's economic power. The second focused on China's

position on global environmental issues. Although a big power, China, it argued, was still very much adeveloping country with more than 100 million people living in poverty and hundreds of millions morelacking the basic standards of living that are taken for granted in the West. It would simply not be fair forthe Chinese to be denied the same benefits of development that people in the developed world expected

particularly given that the developed world was responsible for the overwhelming majority of carbondioxide emissions since Europe began to develop two centuries ago. So we have, in the eyes of manyChinese, a China that deserves to be at the centre of global politics. And promoting the idea of returningto the great power status that China held for centuries before subjugation by militarily superior Westernpowers in the nineteenth century has a strong resonance within China. There is also a widely held andstrong popular sense of injustice that China is being unfairly demonised by its enemies (Liu and Liu,1997; Song et al., 2009; Song, Zhang and Qiao, 1996). China is a great power in a world that is not of itsown making, where existing power structures have been established by others to serve the interests ofthe developed West; a dissatisfied great power with myriad domestic developmental challenges that

remain the primary focus of China's leaders challenges that might even undermine continued rule bythe Chinese Communist party (CCP) if not correctly handled. But dissatisfaction and a desire for changehave not (yet) resulted in a revolutionary global agenda. On the contrary, China's leaders are keen toproject an image of responsibility and trustworthiness; of a responsible great power that is a force forglobal peace, stability and growth. This is not simply a desire to be liked. China's leaders understand thatthe world is watching them closely and that many of those watching are concerned. In particular, by thelate 1990s there was an increasing recognition by China's leaders that the rhetoric of Chinese foreignpolicy was raising concerns in other states about China's ultimate objectives (Johnston, 2003). Shouldthis concern result in policies designed to contain China and constrain its development, then the task ofmeeting domestic challenges would become ever harder (Shirk, 2007). Thus, external perceptions ofwhat China wants are partly driven by what China says and does and what China says and does ispartly a response to these external perceptions. For the promoters and supporters of the global liberalorder, the rise of China seems to have been identified as the single biggest challenge more so eventhan global economic chaos. So before outlining in more detail the understanding of a dissatisfiedresponsible great power, and what exactly China wants to change, this article first establishes why it isthat China seems to be such a source of concern. The answer is found partly in the simple speed andscale of change in China in the post-Cold War era; change that has had unintentional consequences forthe rest of the world. But it also goes beyond just the practical and real impact of China's rise into a moredeep-seated mistrust of China's long-term objectives, and the values and belief systems that underpinthese aspirations. In short, no matter what China's leaders might say, some in the West remain convincedthat China aims to shift not just the global balance of power but also the way in which internationalinteractions occur and are governed as soon as it is in a position to do so.

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A2 CHINAS SPACE BUILDUP BADChinas Space goal is peaceful.Sun Dangen 6, senior research fellow at the Academy of Military Sciences, Shenzhouand Dreams ofSpace Issue 2 of China Security Journal, 2006 http://www.wsichina.org/attach/cs2_5.pdf

Numerous commentators in the international media have looked beyondthese obvious economic rationales and suggested that Chinas mannedspace program will greatly enhance its military capabilities. Theseallegations do not stand up to scrutiny, however. The peaceful objective of Chinasspace exploration program is undisputable. In the history of human society, everymajor scientific and technological breakthrough has been closelyintertwined with both war and peace. Whether such a breakthrough hasaided the advancement of human society or destroyed the fruits of thatsociety has depended on whether the country or organization masteringthat technology intends to seek peace through development, or to winpeace through wars and hegemony. To take a stark example, nuclear

technology is one the greatest scientific innovations mankind has knownin the 20th Century. When applied to military goals, nuclear weapons coulddestroy our civilizations several times over. However, when used forpeaceful intent, nuclear technology can play a huge role in the area ofenergy, medicine and other scientific purposes. In light of the importanceplaced on intent, Chinas space program faces critical choices: to serve military or civilianpurposes. Chinas national development strategy focuses on economic development, with the goal ofproviding Chinas vast population a prosperous livelihood by building a harmonious society. Today,Chinas space program serves the nations strategic goals: economic development, social improvement

and scientific and technological advancement. Alternatively, when the security of a rising China isthreatened or violated, its space capabilities will no doubt be key to protecting the nations national

security interests.This is not unique to Chinas space program, but is true forthe Sun Dangen programs of other major nations, including the UnitedStates. Keeping in mind the important role that scientific and economic development play inChinas space program, all the technologies used for Chinas manned space flights have been essential

for sending humans into space and for its peaceful exploration and use. Anyone withrudimentary military knowledge will understand that any assertions to thecontrary are inaccurate and incorrect.

China can rise peacefully.Jonathon M. Seidl 11 , assistant editor at The Blaze,http://www.theblaze.com/stories/chinese-general-dont-worry-america-our-

military-doesnt-compare-to-yours/

Seeking to counter U.S. worries about his countrys rapid military growth, a top Chinese generalsaid Wednesday the communist nations defense clout lags decades behind the U.S., and thatChina wants warmer relations. Gen. Chen Bingde, whose position in Beijing is roughly the equivalentof chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, used a 45-minute speech at the National DefenseUniversity to play down fears of Chinese intentions. Although Chinas defense and militarydevelopment has come a long way in recent years, a gaping gap between you and us remains ,Chen said through a Chinese interpreter. He added, China never intends to challenge the U.S.Chen made a similar point later at a Pentagon news conference with his American counterpart, Navy

Adm. Mike Mullen. I can tell you that China does not have the capability to challenge the United

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States, he said, adding that Chinas wealth and military strength pales in comparison with that ofthe United States. He said Chinas navy is 20 years behind the U.S. Navy. Chens remarks were inline with Chinas strategy of countering U.S. fear of China as a military threat by emphasizing thelimited scope of its military reach and advancing efforts to cooperate in areas likecounterterrorism and anti-piracy. Chen said he invited Mullen to make his first visit to China as JointChiefs chairman. Chen and Mullen announced several agreements, including a plan for the U.S. and

Chinese militaries to jointly conduct a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise in 2012. Theyalso agreed to use a special telephone link to maintain communication between their offices.

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A2 DEFENSE INVESTMENTS

Chinas defense investments leads to an arms race.LESLIE P. NORTON 11, Asia editor and a feature writer at Barron's, Dragon Fire, JUNE 25, 2011http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903349804576403561272392884.html#articleTabs_

panel_article%3D1.Even the most casual observer seems to know that China's economy has been growing at a roughly 10%annual rate for much of the past decade. Less recognized and arguably more important to the state of theworld is the fact that China's defense spending rose even faster than that -- 12% or more a year between2000 and 2009. "The accelerating pace of China's defense budget increases is driving countries in theregion, as well as the U.S., to react to preserve a balance of power and stability," says Jacqueline Newmyer,head of Long-Term Strategy Group, a Cambridge, Mass.-based defense consultant. "There is a realpotential for arms races to emerge," she adds. "While once we assumed we'd have access to areas toconduct anti-terrorism or anti-insurgency operations, now we're compelled to think about preserving ourability to gain access to East Asia." Stephen Rosen, Harvard's Beton Michael Kaneb professor of nationalsecurity and military affairs, agrees. "All of us are clearly moving in that direction: We, the Japanese, theIndians. The only thing stalling it now are fiscal problems in Japan and the United States," says the formeradvisor to one-time presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani. Highlighting one of the fastest military buildups in

history was China's debut of its stealth jet just hours before the January visit to Beijing by outgoing U.S.Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The fighter will rival the U.S.'s F-22 Raptor, the world's only operationalstealth fighter. Larger than the F-22, with bigger fuel tanks, it will fly higher, faster and with less chance ofdetection. It's one of many Chinese weapons that will impede the U.S. military's ability to roam freely inthe region. The investment implications for China's military modernization are only starting to take shape.But some U.S. companies like Lockheed Martin (ticker: LMT) and United Technologies (UTX), facing bigbudget cuts as President Obama withdraws the U.S. from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, should get someoffset from a new spending cycle worldwide. Like it or not, U.S. investors also are likely to hear moreabout Chinese companies such as Xi'an Aero-Engine (600893.China) and China Shipbuilding Industrial(601989.China) that are helping arm the country. There's likely to be a steady stream of new IPOs forChinese defense companies that some Western investors may choose to avoid. The effects go beyondequities. The sounds of new sabers rattling will stir both the bond and currency markets. THREEDECADES AFTER Vietnamese forces defeated China's People's Liberation Army in a border fight,

Beijing's military has the potential to rearrange geopolitical relationships -- and military needs. In October,China conducted a joint air exercise with Turkey, its first with a NATO member. En route, its fightersrefueled in Iran, the first time Iran allowed a foreign military to refill at its airfields since the Shah departed.Though they don't constitute a far-flung naval power, China's ships increasingly sail the world. InFebruary, Beijing dispatched a frigate to Libya to evacuate 12,000 Chinese workers; it was able to arrivequickly because it was conducting antipiracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. These exercises seem benign,but they haven't escaped the notice of China's regional foes, particularly in Taiwan. China has about1,500 ballistic missiles, many of them trained at Taiwan. Indeed, incoming Defense Secretary LeonPanetta told the Senate this month that China "appears to be preparing for potential contingenciesinvolving Taiwan, including possible U.S. military intervention." China contests its border with India, partof which analysts refer to as "Southern Tibet." It also claims sovereignty over spits of land in the EastChina Sea, including the Senkaku islands between Taiwan and Japan. When Japan detained a Chinesetrawler there last year, China banned rare-earth exports critical to high-tech manufacturing; Japan backed

down. It also asserts authority over the Spratlys and Paracels -- largely uninhabited atolls in the SouthChina Sea that sit on the oil-rich continental shelf. Those claims are variously disputed by Vietnam, thePhilippines, Indonesia and Taiwan. China's claims have raised tensions. As a result, Vietnam held live-firenaval training earlier this month in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Philippines renamed the SouthChina Sea the "West Philippine Sea," and Taiwan said it would dispatch missile boats and tanks to theSpratlys. Most worrying, of course, is control of the sea lanes, through which valuable merchandise andenergy shipments pass. China maintains there's no ill intent. "We do not want to use our money to buyequipment or advanced weapons to challenge the United States," People's Liberation Army Chief of StaffChen Bingde said in a visit to Washington, D.C., last month. He noted the "gaping gap" between Chineseand U.S. military capability. Many analysts are skeptical. Bradley Kaplan, a consultant to U.S. PacificCommand, says "Sun-tzu taught that the weaker power never demonstrates its intent or capability."Barron's has interviewed about two dozen experts on China's arms buildup; they date its modernization to

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Desert Storm, when Chinese generals saw how quickly the U.S. and its allies vanquished Iraq. Thencame the election of Lee Teng-hui, the first native Taiwanese to become the island nation's president,which triggered the third Taiwan Strait crisis. The first Bush administration sold Taiwan 115 F-16 fighters."In 1993, the PLA air force was in such poor shape that the F-16s made a difference," says DavidFinkelstein, director of China Studies at Center for Naval Analyses. China's increasing wealth pays for abig budget. Following its decade of spending increases, China's defense outlays are scheduled to rise

another 12.7% in 2011 to 601 billion yuan (nearly $100 billion). That's far less than the U.S.'s $708 billiondefense budget -- but the two are headed in opposite directions.

Arms race leads to nuclear war.Van Jackson 09, the Executive Editor of Asia Chronicle, Can U.S. Nuclear Plan PreventAsian Arms Race, May 2009, http://www.asiachroniclenews.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=92&twindow=Default&...

From an East Asian security perspective and that of the Six Party Talks to denuclearize theKorean peninsula, the timing of President Obamas announcement could not have beenbetter. Tensions have been rising in Asia in recent months. Negotiations over North Koreasnuclear program have deadlocked, yet again, and North Korea has just tested its long-range Taepodong-2

Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, against the expressed desires of not simply the United States, but allthe countries participating in the Six Party Talks. One of the myriad fears associated withNorth Koreas possession of nuclear weapons is the potential for it to spark a nuclear arms race in

Asia. The doomsday scenario plays out rather intuitively: 1) North Korea confirms unequivocallythat it will be keeping its existing nuclear weapons or possibly adding to its stockpile; 2) Japan, which hasrepeatedly mentioned its belief that a nuclear North Korea is a threat to Japanese security, dramaticallybuilds up its defensive and offensive military capability, possibly developing its own nuclear program whileit pushes for greater involvement in transnational security issues such as terrorism; 3) China, continuingto see Japan as the only near-peer realistically capable of challenging its regional leadership, isthreatened by Japans remilitarization and responds by increasing its own military spending; 4) Partly inresponse to Chinas increased military expenditures and partly in response to nagging historically basedconcerns over Japans remilitarization, both South Korea and Taiwan build up their own conventionalarmaments, potentially engaging in secret nuclear programs as well. Under such circumstances, political

risk indicators would shoot through the roof and foreign direct investment inflows of capital would quicklydry up as multinational corporations seek a safer, more stable region in which to do business. Theregions resulting economic contraction would place increasing pressure on nationalgovernments to pander to xenophobic and nationalistic sentiments, as has been done manytimes before, thus stoking the fire of conflict. The region, in sum, would become a powderkeg. This is not overly pessimistic hyperbole but a realistic scenario according to the classicliterature on security dilemmas.[1] Just imagine a world where the most powerful countriesin Asia all either possess nuclear weapons or are engaged in covert programs to develop anuclear weapons capability, each in the name of its own security. Such a dreadful possibilityis exactly what the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was designedto prevent. But the efficacy of the NPT has been called into question by some in recent yearsbecause of the actions of de facto and aspiring nuclear weapons states.[2] De jure nuclearweapons states like the United States have done little to help matters. In 2005, the BushAdministration took actions that some consider contrary to the spirit of the NPT by initiatinga push to rewrite U.S. law and international regulations to recognize Indias nuclearcapability in such a way that NPT-based sanctions would no longer apply.[3] Legallyspeaking, the NPT is the only thing that has prevented a global nuclear arms race to dateand it is increasingly at risk of becoming irrelevant. Absent strategic changes on the part ofglobal leaders like the United States and China, a North Korean decision to keep its nuclearweapons could spark the spiral model arms race described above. Hope for Change Againstthe backdrop of such a security dilemma and with the future utility of the NPT hanging in thebalance, the initiation of a global trend away from nuclear weapons is a breath of fresh air.President Obamas call for strategic change, if heeded by the other declared nuclearweapons states and the U.S. Congress, is the only solution that can prevent an Asian arms race overthe long term. However nave this strategy may seem to some, expert practitioners of

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realpolitik like former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Schultz have agreedwith the need to at least make the effort. Gradual, global denuclearization efforts wouldreinforce the NPT while simultaneously creating the kind of international social pressure towhich responsible nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and others should respondpositively. For decades, the U.S. nuclear umbrella obviated the need for its Asian allies todevelop nuclear capabilities. This same U.S. security guarantee, unfortunately, encouraged

the North Koreans to obtain their nuclear capacity. Whether one ultimately blames thisdevelopment on the effectiveness of the NPT or the apparent failure of the U.S. nucleardeterrent, preventing new nuclear weapons states will require the strengthening of, androbust commitment to, a global nonproliferation regime like the NPT. Whatever theprospects of President Obamas plan for dampening an Asian arms race, it will have little ifany effect on either the amicable resolution of the Six Party Talks or the North Koreandecision whether to remain a de facto nuclear state. With the possible exception of effortsby China, North Koreas isolation vis--vis the international community of states hasunintentionally made the recalcitrant regime nearly invulnerable to international law,intergovernmental institutions, economic sanctions, and the employment of soft power.

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China Influence DA Neg Supplement

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