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China and the Mekong: Timber Trade and Governance Snapshot · China and the Mekong: Timber Trade...
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China and the Mekong: Timber Trade and Governance Snapshot Kerstin Canby, Forest Trends January, 2011
Transcript of China and the Mekong: Timber Trade and Governance Snapshot · China and the Mekong: Timber Trade...
China and the Mekong:
Timber Trade and Governance
Snapshot
Kerstin Canby, Forest Trends
January, 2011
China timber product exports (million m3 RWE)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Es
tim
ate
d R
WE
Vo
lum
e(m
illi
on
cu
bic
me
ters
)
Furniture Plywood FiberboardFloorings & Moldings Sawn wood JoineryVeneer Wood chips Other wood
China timber product imports (million m3 RWE)
Logs 1st Q 2010:Total imports +54%Russian +31%NZ +140%Malaysia +114%
Lumber 1st Q 2010:Total imports +104%Russian +77%Canada +200% Thailand +140%USA +66%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Estim
ate
d R
WE
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3
)
Russia New Zealand Canada
Thailand Vietnam Africa
United States Australia Papua New Guinea
2009: China only major market show demand growth
China US Canada EU Japan M. East
Softwood lumber +20% -23% -15% -15% -14% +15%
Plywood +5 -16 -16 -29 -17 +16
Particle board +2 -5 -7 -13 -12 +3
MDF +5 -3 -20 -20 -19 +46
Pulp +21 -9 -19 -16 -21
Paper +7 -5 -2 -6 -14
Packaging & Tissue
+2 -21 -2 -16 -13
China’s domestic markets responsible for a large part of global recovery
• Strong economy > strong domestic markets• Lots of people• Stimulus package > infrastructure & construction• Increased acceptance of lumber construction
Numerous green economy programs, but they mainly focus on resource efficiency, not sourcing issues. This changed with recent food tainting scandals.
China’s domestic production• Reduced harvesting in natural forests in 1990s• Plantations plantations plantations• Domestic timber tracking systems in place, butk manufacturers have difficulty • Land allocation process & land use conflicts increasing
• Policy reform allowing households to transfer land rights to outsiders as long as voluntary• 2009 RRI study on Stora Enso plantation program
China Forest Product Exports (US$ billion)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US
$ B
illio
ns
United States European Union JapanHong Kong Australia Singapore Canada Africa South KoreaMalaysia Others
~60%
Vietnam Forest Product Imports (million m3)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3
RW
E)
Thailand Malaysia Indonesia China Taiwan
United States New Zealand European Union Laos Brazil
South Korea Japan Canada Russia Others
Vietnam• Like China, stopped harvesting own natural forests
• Demonstrated “leakage” effect on neighboring
countries (implications for REDD+)
• “conversion timber” likely dominant export source
• Plantations plantations plantations• 0 land certified; many CoC certifications• Industry very concerned about Lacey and EU TR• VPA discussions on-going, with preliminary studies
being undertaken w/ strong government – industry collaboration
• national civil society not yet involved
Vietnam Forest Product Exports (US$ billion)
~80%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US$
Bill
ion
United States European Union Japan
China Taiwan South Korea
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Esti
mat
ed R
WE
Vo
lum
e(m
illio
n c
ub
ic m
eter
s)
Malaysia Laos Chile China United States MyanmarNew Zealand European Union Others
Thailand Timber Product Imports (million m3’)
Thailand• Like CN, like VN, stopped harvesting own natural forests; control systems to track domestic harvests• Plantations plantations plantations• 7,000 ha certified (FSC)• History of land conflict, and a highly controversial policy process regarding community forest management / enterprises• Industry very concerned about Lacey and EU TR Regulation, but government slow to respond
Thailand Forest Product Exports (US$ billion)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US$
Bill
ion
China European Union Japan
United States Vietnam Malaysia
South Korea Taiwan Others
Laos Forest Product Exports (US$ million)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US$
Mill
ion
s
Vietnam Thailand China Japan Taiwan South Korea European Union Others
Laos• “conversion timber” predominant source of timber
• Signif challeges implementing “legal” conversion• Definition of “degraded” forests; size
• Means to justify harvesting timber outside normal quota system?
• Plantations plantations plantations• Land use conflicts increasing
• Unclear definitions of legality – loopholes everywhere
• Log export ban (?)
• Small area FSC certified but no CoCs
• Strong involvement of Vietnamese industry
• Poor environment for civil society
Cambodia Forest Product Exports (US$ million)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US$
Mill
ion
Vietnam China Thailand Taiwan
Japan Malaysia European Union Others
Cambodia• “conversion timber” likely dominant export source
• Land use permits not following legal procedures• Signif challeges implementing “legal” conversion• Importance of Vietnamese & Chinese investment
• No industrial scale concessions since early 2000s; log export ban (?)
• Plantations plantations plantations• Domestic markets > exports• Land use conflicts increasing
• Political patronage networks documented by GW
• Civil society not strong, but improving prospects for CFM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Esti
mat
ed R
WE
Vo
lum
e(m
illio
n c
ub
ic m
eter
s)
India China Thailand
Vietnam Bangladesh South Korea
Myanmar timber product exports (million m3 RWE)
Myanmar
• Opened up to private sector in 1989• Dominence of Myanmar Timber Enterprise, revenue
generating arm of MoF in logging, transport, manufacturing
• Plantations plantations plantations• Illegal logging and export widely reported• “Legal exports” via Yangoon stamped by government
can be subsequently mixed with “illegal” logs smuggled via Yunnan
• Exports to Europe rumored to be going through Malaysia, or MY / VN or trans-shipped via Singapore.
Summary of main issues:
1. Garden variety issues:
• Re-export problems of VN, Thailand, China
• Capacity, political and financial means for effective
forest governance
• Confusing laws & regulations
• Lack of good data….
2. Land use allocations and conflict
• Land allocations not proceeding according to law
• Underlying this is insecure land tenure, rights of access,
etc.
3. “conversion timber”
• Developmental projects are within sovereign rights of
each individual country, but are not proceeding
according to law
4. Plantations plantations plantations
• Rubberwood, teak, plantations
• Laos able to attract multi-nationals like Stora Enso
• Many pltn investments to feed pulp & paper mega mills
5. Dearth of domestic experts / civil society for both policy and
practical experience with legality verification processes
6. Lack of coordination between BINGOs
7. Potential for REDD / FLEGT mutual benefit huge, but so is
potential to have separate parallel processes
• VN, Cambodia, Laos engaged in UNREDD, FCPF, FIP
plus multiple bilateral donor programs
• REDD processes started ahead of any FLEGT dialogue
• Lao P-RR – majority of “REDD implementation”
activities are basic forest governance: inventories,
monitoring of illegal logging.
• Vietnam UNREDD plans to spend $100m in next 4
years -- $80m on performance based payments
presumably to households
Thank you for
your time
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