China and the Indo-Pacific Concept:

A perspective on the new Maritime Silk Road Concept

Seiichiro TakagiJapan Institute of International Affairs

November 27, 2015

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

I. Emergence of the Indo-Pacific concept 1. Pre-history (IISS, A-P Regional Security Assessment 2015) - Rich history of exchanges through two oceans - Division by the Cold War 2. Emergence of the perception of the linkage of the two - Sinzo Abe’ speech at the Indian Parliament (2007) 3. Official reference to the Indo-Pacific - Hillary Clinton (Oct. 2010, Oct. 2011) - Australian Defense White Paper (2013) - Shinzo Abe (March 2013) 2

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

II. Chinese Vies on the Indo-Pacific concept 1. Passivity of the discourse - It stimulated many Chinese strategic thinkers and planners (Minghao Zhao, 2013) 2. Major Characteristics of the concept 1) Connotation (Zhao Qinghai, 2013) (1) Geo-economic (2) Geo-politic: Extension of the “Asia-Pacific” (3) Geo-strategic:

- Expansion of strategic interest of China and India- US strategy and influence over the two oceans

2) Relationship among the three aspects * Close and inseparable * G-e and G-p: description; G-s: design 3) Not a geographical concept: No clear demarcation line * Difference among nations: interests, strategic needs, capability

3

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

3. Reasons for the emergence of the concept (Zhao Qinghai, 2013, et. al.) (1)East-ward shift of the strategic center of gravity (2) The rise of India’s strategic status (3) The rise of importance of the Indian Ocean (4) Obama administration’s rebalance - Emphasis in the first term: Southeast Asia, East China Sea - Emphasis in the second term: shift to the Indian Ocean (5) Use by relevant countries to raise international status - India, Australia, Japan

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

4. Significance of the Indo-Pacific concept for China 1) Shock: Aspects with clear conflict with China’s interests (Zhao Qh) (1) Dilution of China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific (2) International attention to China’s protection of maritime interests (3) Promotion of mini-lateral mechanisms targeted at China

- US central objectives: Alliances with Aus. and Japan plus India 2) China’s own Indo-Pacific identity (Zhang Li, 2013) (1) China’s role in the I-P concept: Major undecided issue * US approach to China in the I-P context: Deterrence, constraining * Remaining uncertainty: Need to be open-minded (2) Need to engage US and India: Xiangshang trilateral dialogue (2013)

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

III. The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Concept 1. Overlap with the I-P concept (“Vision and Actions,” March 2015) *The Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on …. connecting China with

Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean. *The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road goes from China's coast:

(1) to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and (2) through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other

*Avoidance of the most of the Pacific - Demarcation of sphere of influence with the US?

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

2. Avoidance of the Indo-Pacific concept 1) Negative reasons (APRSA 2015) * Denial of India’s “privileged status” * Focus on the rout (> geographical region):

- Importance of China as the terminus * Paralleling with the OR: Relativizing the maritime theater 2) “Silk Road” concept as a superior alternative (Positive reasons) * Image of silk: Affluence and softness

- “Silk glove over the iron fist” (Chellaney) * Possible association with Zhen He’s “peaceful” voyages

- Image: non-military, economic and culutural

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

3. Relevance to Southeast Asia (South China Sea) [“Vision and Actions,” March 2015] 1) Areas covered *The Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on …. connecting China with Southeast Asia, South Asia

and the Indian Ocean. *The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road goes from China's coast:

(1) to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and (2) through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other

2) Cooperation mechanism *ASEAN Plus China (10+1) *Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) *Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) *Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) *Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) *Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) Economic Cooperation *Omission: ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN+3, East Asian Summit

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

2. Relevance to Southeast Asia (Continued) 3) Connection with the domestic regional development (Southwest)

(1) Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as a neighbor of ASEAN countries *The Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Zone, *an international corridor opening to the ASEAN region, create

*new strategic anchors for the opening-up and development of the southwest and mid-south regions of China, and form

*an important gateway connecting the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

(2) Yunnan Province, advance the construction of *an international transport corridor connecting China with neighboring

countries *a new highlight of economic cooperation in the Greater Mekong Sub-region

*a pivot of China's opening-up to South and Southeast Asia

China and the Indo-Pacific Concept: A perspective on the new MSR concept

2. Relevance to Southeast Asia (Continued) 4) Major projects in the near future * Connectivity through transportation infrastructure development 5) Funding mechanism * Primary role: AIIB * Supporting role: Silk Road Fund and BRICS New Development Bank * Supplementary (for SEA): China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund 6) Role of Li Keqiang * Mention of Li Keqiang’s speech at the China-ASEAN Exhibition (2013),

emphasizing the need to build the Maritime Silk Road oriented towards ASEAN

*The first official document written by three departments of the State Council