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![Page 1: China and the Global Energy and Emissions Landscape with Reference to Africa and Oil Moustapha Kamal Gueye Senior Programme Manager – Environment Cluster,](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032600/56649dd05503460f94ac4aef/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
China and the Global Energy and Emissions Landscape
with Reference to Africa and Oil
Moustapha Kamal Gueye
Senior Programme Manager – Environment Cluster, ICTSD
Moving ideas, pursuing solutions
![Page 2: China and the Global Energy and Emissions Landscape with Reference to Africa and Oil Moustapha Kamal Gueye Senior Programme Manager – Environment Cluster,](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032600/56649dd05503460f94ac4aef/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
China and Global Energy Demand
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Climate Scenarios in the IEA World Energy Outlook
• 550 ppm Policy Scenario: Global temperature at 3 degrees - Energy-related CO2 emissions rise from 27 Gt in 2006 to 33 Gt in 2030. The share of low-carbon energy in global primary energy mix increases from 19% in 2006 to 25% in 2030.
– Global investment in energy-related infrastructure and equipment in 2010-2030 is $4.1 trillion (or 0.25% of annual world GDP).
• 450 ppm Policy Scenario: Global temperature at 2 degrees - Energy related CO2 emissions drop sharply from 2020 onwards, reaching 25.7 Gt in 2030.
– Low carbon energy accounts for 40% of global power generation by 2030.
– Global energy investment is $9.3 trillion, or 0.55% of annual world GDP.
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Fossil Fuel Dominate Global Energy Mix in 2030 IEA Reference Scenario
IEA WEO 2008: Global demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – Fossil fuels account for 80% of the world’s primary energy mix – Oil remains the dominant fuel, but coal accounts for more than 1/3 of the overall rise – Renewables grow most rapidly, overtaking gas after 2010 to become the 2nd largest source of electricity behind coal.
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China and India Drive the Rise in Global DemandIEA Reference Scenario, 2006-2030
India’s demand grows at 3.9% per year, followed by China, at 3.5% – Non-OECD countries account for 87% of the increase – Demand in OECD drops – Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure amounts to $26.3 trillion to 2030.
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Change in Oil Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030
All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
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China and Global GHG Emissions
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World Greenhouse-gas Emissions
Energy-related CO2 emissions will continue to be the main source of GHG in all scenarios
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Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the IEA Reference Scenario
Non-OECD countries account for 97% of the projected increase in energy-related emissions between now and 2030 – 3/4 coming from China, India & the Middle East alone
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Reductions in Energy-related CO2emissions in the Climate Policy Scenarios
Improvements in energy efficiency provide the greatest potential for emissions cut – Increased deployment of existing low-carbon technologies accounts for most of the CO2 savings
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Implications for Global GHG Reduction Efforts
OECD countries alone cannot take the world to a 450-ppm goal, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero. Hence the importance of enabling and supporting National Appropriate Mitigation Actions in developing countries
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Facing an Unprecedented Challenge
• "It took developed countries several decades to solve the problems of saving energy and cutting emissions, while China has to solve the same problem in a much shorter period. So the difficulty is unprecedented”
Chinese Premier, at Beijing High-level Conference
on Climate Change Technology
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China, Africa and Oil Trade and Investment
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Meeting China’s Energy Demand
• China’s primary energy demand is projected to more than double from 2005 level to 2030.
• In the IEA Reference Scenario, net coal imports reach 3% of its demand and 7% of global coal trade in 2030.
• China’s net oil imports jump from 3.5 mb/d in 2006 to 13.1 mb/d in 2030, as conventional oil production in China peaks in the next decade and starts to decline.
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Growing Oil Demand from Africa
China’s imports from Africa as a share of China’s global imports
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Share of Africa's Exports by Destination
Average annual merchandise export growth rate, Africa to AsiaShare of Africa's exports
by destination
Source: Broadman, 2007
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Product Distribution of Africa’s Trade with China
Africa's merchandise exports to China, 2004
Africa’s Exports to China by Commodity Groups
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Chinese FDI in Africa
Chine FDI flows to Africa and their % growth
2004 Chinese FDI outflows
Source: Broadman, 2007
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Transfer of Technology and Skills
• The 2006 white paper on “China’s Africa Policy” seeks to promote cooperation in technical knowledge for development.
• A World Bank survey (Broadman, 2007) found that in engineering services, in general, Chinese firms sub-contract services to local firms, providing opportunities for acquisition of experience and access to technology.
• However, African firms are not equally benefiting from acquisition of experience and access to technology through sub-contracting, because in many cases, Chinese firms import all materials, technology and staff from China.
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Oil/Gas Exports: Development Spillover for Africa?
• Government revenues from oil and gas in the top ten oil and gas producing African countries is projected to rise from some $80 billion in 2006 to about $250 billion in 2030 – with a cumulative revenues of all ten countries over 2006-2030 reaching $4.1 trillion (IEA, 2008).
• Less than a third of households in the majority of these African countries have access to electricity or to clean fuels for cooking, like LPG, kerosene, biogas and ethanol gelfuel.
• An estimated $18 billion is needed to achieve universal access to electricity and to LPG cooking stoves = 0.4% of the projected cumulative government revenues from oil and gas export revenues in 2007-2030.
• With the right policies, oil and gas revenues can contribute to alleviating energy poverty in African countries and to a sustainable energy transition
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Thank you
International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)
www.ictsd.org
ICTSD is the publisher of BRIDGES Between Trade and Sustainable Development© and
BRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest©, and co-publisher ofPUENTES entre el Comercio y el Desarrollo Sostenible©; and
PASSERELLES entre le commerce et le développement durable©; and
PONTES Entre o Comércio e o Desenvolvimento Sustentável©
Moving ideas, pursuing solutions