China and emerging currency index World: Exchange rates ......2015/09/10 · China’s economic...

1 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: [email protected]

10 Sep 2015 Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets China-related currency risks: who is most vulnerable?

China’s unexpected decision to allow its currency to depreciate on August 11 has intensified

global currency risks. Currencies most at risk of weakening in the months ahead include those of

countries with large trade links to China, weak fundamentals and – especially – high sensitivity to

global commodity prices. The major currency most vulnerable is the Australian dollar. Among

emerging countries Brazil, Chile, South Africa and Malaysia are among those in danger.

There has already been a sell-off in many currencies in the wake of the China devaluation but this is not

necessarily the end of the story. China’s economic slowdown may yet have further to go, and the danger

of further currency depreciation in China is quite significant. In addition, some emerging countries such

as Argentina have yet to see the China effect impact on their currencies – but are likely to.

So far, trade links to China have not correlated well with currency moves since August 11. This in part is

due to many of China’s closest trading partners having large current account surpluses and managed

exchange rates. Current account positions also help explain other recent features of currency markets

such as the strengthening of the euro and yen and the poor performance of the Turkish lira.

China devaluation raises FX risk…

China’s unexpected decision to allow its currency to

depreciate on August 11 was a shock to world financial

markets generally and has intensified global currency

risks. Both advanced and emerging currencies have

been significantly affected, with measures of currency

volatility rising.

6.10

6.15

6.20

6.25

6.30

6.35

6.40

6.45

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15

China and emerging currency indexIndex, Dec 30 2010=100

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

CNY/$ rate (RHS)

OE emerging currency index (LHS)

CNY/$

So far, China’s depreciation has been small, at around

3%. But this modest move nevertheless set off a chain

reaction of currency moves elsewhere. Our OE emerging

market currency index (based on 17 major emerging

currencies) has declined by 3.5% since August 10,

reinforcing a miserable existing trend that has seen the

index slump by 16% in the last year.

-10 -5 0 5

Brazil

Malaysia

South Africa

Turkey

Russia

Australia

Ukraine

Indonesia

Mexico

India

China

Taiwan

Korea

Chile

UK

Thailand

Philippines

Canada

Argentina

Poland

Switzerland

Eurozone

Japan

World: Exchange rates versus dollar% change in exchange rate versus US$ since August 10


Some emerging currencies have fared rather worse than

this: the Brazilian real, Malaysian ringgit and South

mailto:[email protected]

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10 Sep 2015

Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: [email protected]

Emerging Markets

African rand have slumped 7-8%, and the Russian rouble

and Turkish lira by about 6%.

There have been some big moves among the advanced

economy currencies as well. The Japanese yen has

gained over 4% versus the dollar and the euro put on as

much as 3% at one stage. Meanwhile, the Australian

dollar has fared badly, declining by over 5%.

…and risks remain

What factors have caused this pattern of currency

performance, and what do currency risks look like going

forward?

In our view, China’s devaluation has increased investor

concerns about Chinese growth prospects and caused

investors to reassess the economic outlook in other

emerging markets (EM) also. So there has been a

downward re-rating of EM assets, with countries thought

to be most vulnerable to the Chinese slowdown among

the worst losers.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World: Equity volatilityVIX index

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Investors have become more concerned about the

broader global growth outlook too, as evidenced by

widespread and significant declines in stock markets in

advanced economies and the sharp rise in equity

volatility, to the highest levels since the Eurozone crisis in

2010-11.

These factors have created a classic flight from risk to

‘safe haven’ advanced economy currencies such as the

yen, euro and Swiss franc. The US dollar has of course

gained too, with its trade weighted exchange rate rising

1.5% since August 10 – extending its gains over the last

year to some 15%.

After the big FX moves of the last few weeks, the natural

instinct is to assume that markets will relax again and

some part of these moves will unwind. This may indeed

occur in the short term but there are also good reasons

for thinking that there are risks of further big currency

moves over the coming months.

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Non-FDI capital flows (est.)

Trade balance

Services balance

FDI

Change in FX assets

China: Balance of paymentsUS$bn

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics In particular, there looks to be a real danger that

depreciation may extend further in China. Recent

evidence on growth in China has been unpromising – we

estimate ‘underlying’ GDP growth may be as low as 3-4%

– with policy measures to date having only a modest

impact.

Currency depreciation looks to be one of the better policy

choices, if the authorities want to increase stimulus,

especially as it arguably is less risky than the traditional

credit/fiscal stimulus options in terms of reinforcing the

structural distortions in the economy.

Moreover, there is evidence that depreciation pressures,

in the form of capital outflows, remain strong. We

estimate non-FDI capital outflows at around US$79 billion

in July but for August the number may be double that

with outflows persisting and even intensifying after the

August 11 depreciation. If the authorities continue to cut

interest rates and/or boost liquidity through cuts in bank

reserve requirements capital outflows may intensify and

have to be accommodated with some more depreciation.

Commodity exposure the key risk factor…

One way to assess China-related currency risks going

forward is to build a simple scorecard of vulnerability

indicators. We have done this for 21 emerging and

advanced economies, based on three indicators:


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Emerging Markets

The share of a country’s exports going to China: a

variable which aims to capture the potential impact of

direct trade links with China.

Net commodity (oil and non-oil) exports of a country

as a % of GDP: a variable that aims to capture the

impact of China-related declines in commodity prices, a

key transmission channel from a weaker China to the

world economy given China’s dominant position in many

commodity markets.

The current account deficit as a % of GDP: a variable

that aims to capture the potential risks to a country from

an interruption of capital inflows related to a reduced

global risk appetite. Current account deficits can also

indicate weak domestic fundamentals or serious

economic imbalances which might lead investors to take

a dim view of a country.

We rank our sample of countries by each indicator and

then derive an overall risk rank based on a simple

average of the indicators. The results indicate that the

riskiest advanced currency is the Australian dollar.

Australia is a large commodity exporter and remarkably

now sends more than a third of its exports to China.

Australia’s current account is also in deficit to the tune of

3% of GDP. The UK and Canada meanwhile fall in the

‘moderately risky’ zone; both have large current account

deficits while Canada is a net commodity exporter.

Among the emerging currencies, the riskiest are the

currencies of Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Indonesia,

Argentina and Malaysia. All are significant commodity

exporters, several are strongly exposed to direct trade

with China and all but Malaysia have deficits on the

current account.

At the other end of the scale, the least risky countries

include the Eurozone, Poland, India, Korea, and Taiwan.

All are net commodity importers (whose terms of trade

should improve from falling commodity prices) and most

have current account surpluses.

The risk scores generated by this framework correlate

quite well with actual currency performance since August

10; the simple correlation coefficient is about 0.5. There

are some notable ‘anomalies’, however, which are worthy

of attention.

Among the riskiest countries, Argentina stands out as

having seen only limited FX depreciation. This is

surprising given the country’s weak fundamentals and

exposure to soybean prices which are China-sensitive.

Argentina’s currency is a managed one, however. It may

well be the case simply that depreciation pressures are

simply being ‘stored up’. The risk of a sharp correction in

the currency looks to be high over the coming months,

once the October elections are out of the way.

Exports to China, Net commodity Current account, Overall risk Currency change vs.

% of total exports, % of GDP % of GDP rank US$ since Aug 10, %

Australia 33.7 9.4 -2.9 1 -5.3

Brazil 18.0 3.9 -4.2 2= -8.1

Chile 24.4 16.6 -0.3 2= -2.4

South Africa 9.6 2.2 -5.3 4 -6.7

Indonesia 11.9 6.5 -2.4 5 -4.6

Argentina 6.8 8.1 -2.4 6 -1.1

Malaysia 13.5 9.0 2.9 7 -7.3

Canada 3.7 6.0 -4.4 8 -1.3

UK 4.1 -2.8 -5.2 9= -2.1

US 7.7 -1.6 -2.3 9= 1.5

Russia 6.7 17.4 4.9 11 -6.0

Turkey 1.8 -3.6 -5.0 12 -6.4

Japan 18.0 -6.6 2.4 13 3.8

Mexico 1.5 1.4 -2.1 14= -4.0

Thailand 11.9 -2.9 4.2 14= -2.1

Philippines 12.0 -5.2 4.4 16= -2.1

Taiwan 27.0 -13.8 15.3 16= -2.9

Korea 26.0 -14.8 7.9 18 -2.7

India 4.2 -5.4 -1.3 19 -3.5

Eurozone 6.4 -4.0 2.7 20= 1.0

Poland 1.0 -1.9 0.1 20= 0.6

Notes: Exports to China in 2014, commodity exports average 2010-13, current account 2015 OE forecast

Overall risk rank based on simple average of ranks of each indicator

US currency change is trade-weighted dollar


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Emerging Markets

...with trade links less important – so far

Another apparent anomaly is that many of the countries

with large direct trade links to China have not seen strong

depreciation. Indeed, there is essentially no statistical

correlation between the share of exports to China and

recent currency performance.

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-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0 10 20 30 40

World: China exports and FX performanceFX performance vs. US$ since Aug 10,%


Exports to China as % of total

Australia

Taiwan

KoreaChile

Japan

BrazilMalaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

S.Africa

US

Russia

Argentina

Eurozone

India

UK

Canada

Turkey

Mexico

Poland

How can this pattern be explained? In the case of

China’s close Asian trading partners such as Korea and

Taiwan we believe the relative resilience of their

currencies reflects the fact that they are net commodity

importers and also have large current account surpluses

which protect their currencies from swings in global

capital flows. On top of this, there is evidence that

currency moves have been limited by central bank

intervention – especially in Korea.

Japan, like Korea and Taiwan, is a net commodity

importer and runs a current account surplus. But on top

of this, the yen has a tendency to gain in periods of

global uncertainty as Japanese investors repatriate

overseas assets (the result of course of years of

accumulated current account surpluses).

Like the yen, the US dollar has a reputation as a ‘safe

haven currency’ and this is borne out by recent

developments: the dollar has gained despite the US

looking moderately risky according to our scorecard.

We believe the dollar’s safe haven status reflects the

special nature of US financial markets, whose size and

depth and denomination in the global reserve currency

gives them an irresistible draw in times of global

uncertainty. We would note though that despite this, the

dollar has gained less than the euro or yen. One reason

for this is likely to be a compression of the interest rate

differential between the dollar and these currencies –

expectations of US rate hikes over the next 1-2 years

have been pared back since early August while no such

expectations existed in the Eurozone and Japan.

Several EMs have done worse in terms of currency

performance than their risk scores might suggest. Russia

is one of these: its risk score is boosted by its current

account position but this probably flatters the country.

Russia also has a massive problem of structural capital

flight and remains cut off from international markets by

sanctions.

Another is Turkey which has low exposure to Chinese

trade and is a net commodity importer. But Turkey’s

fundamentals are very poor (including a large current

account deficit) and with political risk also elevated this

probably explains its weak currency performance.

-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

PolandEurozone

IndiaKorea

TaiwanPhilippines

ThailandMexicoJapan

TurkeyRussia

USUK

CanadaMalaysia

ArgentinaIndonesia

South AfricaChileBrazil

Australia

World: Currencies and China risk ranks% change in currency versus US$ since Aug 10*

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics * for US, trade-weighted FX

Countries arranged top to bottom in order of decreasing China-related risk

Riskiest countries

Least risky countries

Less easy to explain are the large currency declines in

India and Mexico relative to their risk scores. In India’s

case it may be that the changed international

environment is leading investors to take a more sceptical

view of growth prospects than was recently the case,

perhaps focusing on the recent slowdown in reforms.

Mexico may be suffering from being a relatively liquid and

easy accessible market, with the currency being sold off

as a ‘proxy’ hedge for less liquid/open emerging markets.

Model simulations also suggest some

‘anomalies’

Another approach to identifying potential risks from the

China devaluation across countries is to use the Oxford

Economics Global Economic Model (GEM). As the model

is a fully integrated global system where countries are


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10 Sep 2015


Emerging Markets

linked through foreign trade, exchange rate and

commodity price movements it may capture some more

complex international interactions than our scorecard.

For example, a country may not trade much with China

but its exports may compete with those of China in third

markets and so may still lose out from China’s

devaluation. Alternatively, a country may not trade much

with China but may trade a great deal with countries that

do, and so will be hit if that country’s GDP slumps due to

China-related effects.

Using the OE model we have examined in recent

analyses the impact of a sharp economic slowdown in

China across a range of countries, and the results of

these simulations can be used as an alternative risk

indicator for currencies.

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Phili

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Tu

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US

A

Arg

en

tin

a

Eu

rozo

ne

Ca

na

da

Au

str

alia

Ind

on

esia

Po

land

UK

Ma

laysia

Th

aila

nd

S.A

fric

a

Ru

ssia

Me

xic

o

Bra

zil

Ta

iwa

n

Ind

ia

Ja

pan

Ko

rea

Ch

ile

China downside scenario effect on GDP by 2017

Currency change v. US$ since Aug 10

World: China downside effects and currencies%


If we look at the estimated impact on GDP by 2017 of our

current China downside model scenario, we can see that

there is a loose relationship with currency moves since

August 10: most of the countries with bigger

depreciations are those that the model scenario suggests

would be hard hit in GDP terms by weak Chinese growth,

while countries with lower estimated GDP impacts from a

slower China have mostly seen smaller FX moves.

But as with the scorecard rankings, there are again

significant anomalies. Two of the countries with the

biggest negative impacts on GDP according to our model

scenario, Korea and Chile, have seen quite modest

depreciation while Japan – also hit hard in the model

scenario – has seen its currency gain since August 10.

Turkey, meanwhile, has seen one of the biggest currency

depreciations but is not badly hit in the model scenario.

Conclusion

China’s surprise devaluation has set off a chain reaction

of large currency moves across the rest of the world, and

there could well be more to come.

There are compelling reasons for expecting further

depreciation in China, not least of which is that China’s

effective exchange rate is still over 10% above the level

of a year ago even after the devaluation. China is very

much the ‘odd one out’ among the major emerging

markets in this regard: in a period where emerging

currencies have on the whole done very badly, China’s

currency has been gaining implying a broad-based loss

of competitiveness against other EMs.

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Russia

Brazil

Ukraine

Malaysia

Australia

Mexico

Turkey

Canada

South Africa

Indonesia

Japan

Eurozone

Chile

Korea

Poland

Thailand

Taiwan

UK

India

PhilippinesSwitzerland

China

Argentina

US

World: Effective exchange rates% change in nominal effective exchange rate since August 1 2014

Source : Oxford Economics/JPM Morgan/Haver Analytics

Our simple scorecard framework for assessing FX

vulnerability to China-related pressures finds that the

commodity-sensitive EMs – and Australia – are among

the most at risk.

Some of China’s close trading partners like Korea and

Taiwan have meanwhile not suffered much yet. This is

probably partly due thanks to large current account

surpluses, but also reflects currency intervention. Bigger

currency moves in these Asian countries may yet be in

the pipeline, and weak Chinese growth may also

manifest itself there in other ways e.g.by increasing

deflation pressures and compressing interest rates.

This article was first published on 4 September. For

further information contact Adam Slater

([email protected])


http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/308130

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/308130

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10 Sep 2015


Emerging Markets

Latest data

Recent Data Releases

Previous month Latest Comment

China – CPI (Aug)

– Manuf. producer prices (Aug)

– Exports (Aug)

– Imports (Aug)

– Trade balance (Aug,12m total)

1.6% y/y

-4.5% y/y

-8.4% y/y

-8.2% y/y

$536.2bn

2.0% y/y

-4.9% y/y

-5.5% y/y

-13.8% y/y

$546.6bn

Dull trend in exports continues – which is likely to spur the authorities to consider further depreciation of the CNY. Meanwhile, imports are depressed because of very low commodity prices, subdued business and consumer confidence, and investment slowdown.

Russia – GDP (Q2, s. adj.)

– Consumer prices (Aug)

-1.6% q/q

-2.2% y/y

15.6% y/y

-2.0% q/q

-4.5% y/y

15.8% y/y

Deep recession driven by plunge in domestic demand in response to jump in inflation, sanctions, more difficult financing conditions and lower confidence levels. Inflation is running at a higher level in Q3 than we had been expecting, and the RUB’s fall in August will push up import prices again.

Korea – Employment (Aug)

– Unemployment rate (Aug, s.adj)

1.2% y/y

3.7%

1.0% y/y

3.6%

Labour market still in reasonable shape, with employment rising and wage growth of 3-4%.

Mexico – Consumer prices (Aug)

– Consumer confidence (Aug)

2.7% y/y

91.0

2.6% y/y

89.9

Despite peso decline, inflation is still below 3% target. But consumer confidence now ebbing.

Turkey – Retail sales vol. (Jul)

– Industrial output (Jul)

– Current account (Jul,12m total)

– GDP (Q2, seas.adj.)

– Consumer spending (Q2)

– Investment (Q2)

– Export volumes (Q2)

3.9% y/y

4.6% y/y

-$44.3bn

1.5% q/q

2.6% y/y

4.5% y/y

0.3% y/y

-0.8% y/y

6.0% y/y

0.7% y/y

-$45.0bn

1.3% q/q

4.2% y/y

5.1% y/y

10.0% y/y

-1.7% y/y

Quarterly GDP growth was quite a bit stronger than we had expected, with a surge in investment the main factor (probably financed by heavy borrowing). However, this is unlikely to persist given the rise in political uncertainty, a subdued external background and increasingly difficult financing conditions. Despite the plunge in oil prices this year, the current account gap is still running at a substantial US$45bn a year.

Taiwan – Exports (Aug, US$)

– Imports (Aug)

– Trade balance (Aug,12m total)


-11.9% y/y

-17.4% y/y

$50.2bn

-0.6% y/y

-14.8% y/y

-16.7% y/y

$50.1bn

-0.4% y/y

Weak performance of exports has carried over into Q3, which is worrying for the overall growth outlook. Indeed, sales to US are now down on a year ago, as are exports to other key markets (largest fall is to ASEAN).

Chile – IMACEC activity index

(s.adj, Jul)


– Core CPI (Aug)

0.8% m/m

3.0% y/y

4.6% y/y

4.9% y/y

0.1% m/m

2.7% y/y

5.0% y/y

4.9% y/y

Growth still quite patchy, with consumer spending growth threatened by renewed rising trend in CPI inflation (in large part the result of the depreciating peso and stubbornly high growth in unit labour costs).

Malaysia – Exports (Jul, US$)

– Imports (Jul)

– Trade balance (Jul,12m total)

-9.6% y/y

-15.2% y/y

$23.0bn

-13.4% y/y

-11.4% y/y

$22.5bn

External surpluses are not big enough (reflecting low commodity prices and relatively buoyant domestic demand) to counter the impact of capital outflows on the MYR.

Czech – Ind. output (Jul, s. adj)

1.0% m/m

6.1% y/y

1.3% m/m

7.2% y/y

Strong industrial performance reflecting solid domestic and external demand.



10 Sep 2015 Emerging Markets

Asia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

US$bn (seasonally adjusted)

China & HK

Source: Taiwan Ministry of Finance / Oxford Economics

Taiwan: Exports by destination

Rest of emerging Asia

US

Europe

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US$bn (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

China: Trade

Exports

Imports

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

CPI

Source: China Bureau of Statistics

China: Inflation

Manufactured goods PPI

Non-food CPI

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year (3 month moving average)

Korea


East Asia: Exports

Taiwan

China

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

%

Korea


Emerging Asia: Short-term interest rates

China

Malaysia

Taiwan

Thailand

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

Indonesia


ASEAN: Goods' Exports (US$)

3 month moving average

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand




Asia

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

India

Indonesia

Korea

appreciation

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Equity markets

India

Indonesia

Korea

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

H1 2008 = 100

Housing

Source: Hang Seng Index Services / Hong Kong Rating & Valuation Dept.

Hong Kong: Asset prices

Offices

Stockmarket

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Malaysia



Thailand

Philippines

Singapore

appreciation

40

45

50

55

60

65

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

50 = expansion/contraction breakeven point

Source: Markit

India: Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

6

7

8

9

10

11

12


%


India: Interest rates

3-month interbank rate

10-year government bond yield

Repo policy rate




Latin America

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Index (seasonally adjusted, 2013=100)


Latin America: Imports of goods

Argentina

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% year

Chile


Latin America: Consumer prices

Mexico

Colombia

Brazil

-28

-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

21

28

35

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year

US non-oil import volumes (RHS)


Mexican GDP & US non-oil import volumes% year

Mexican monthly GDP proxy (LHS)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

2008=100 (IMACEC, seasonally adjusted)


Chile: Monthly indicator of economic activity

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

%

Chile


Latin America: Short-term interest rates

Mexico

Brazil

Colombia

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)

Chile



Brazil

depreciation

Argentina

Mexico




Emerging Europe

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year

Poland


Central & Eastern Europe: Consumer prices

Czech

Russia

Hungary

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Index (H1 2008 = 100)


Central Europe: Industrial output

Hungary

Slovak

Czech

Poland

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

2010=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Slovak


Central Europe: Merchandise exports in EUR

Czech

Hungary

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

Poland


Russia and Poland: GDP

Russia

20

30

40

50

60

70

8040

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15

RUB per US$ (inverted)


Russia: RUB and oil priceOil price (US$ pb)

RUB per US$ (RHS)

Oil price (LHS)

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24


%


Russia: Interest rates

Interbank rate (31 to 90 days)

1-week repo rate

%

10 year bond yield




Rest of World

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

50 = expansion / contraction line


South Africa: PMI

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year


Turkey: Real GDP

Exports

GDP

Consumer spending

Investment

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

%

"Core" inflation

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Turkey: Interest rates and inflation

Average bank lending rate

1-week interbank rate

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Emergers: Exchange rates

Turkey (v Euro)

depreciation

S. Africa (v US$)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Malaysia: Foreign exchange reservesUS$ bn

Source : Oxford Economics/Bank Negara

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


%

Poland


Emergers: 10 year government bond yields

Brazil

South Africa

Turkey




China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland

2014

Jul 9.0 -2.8 3.9 0.9 1.9 1.5 3.5 6.8 2.4

Aug 6.9 -2.7 -1.5 0.5 1.9 0.0 4.5 8.2 0.5

Sep 8.0 -4.5 0.8 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 8.5 2.0

Oct 7.7 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 2.4 2.9 2.7 8.3 1.8

Nov 7.2 -4.5 -1.9 5.2 2.5 -0.4 0.8 7.9 0.3

Dec 7.9 -3.5 -0.5 3.6 2.0 3.9 2.2 6.1 5.7

2015

Jan 6.8 -4.8 -3.5 2.8 1.3 0.9 -1.2 5.6 4.0

Feb 6.8 -6.3 0.2 4.8 1.7 -1.6 1.1 5.2 4.8

Mar 5.6 -6.8 -1.3 2.5 1.5 -0.6 4.7 7.7 5.7

Apr 5.9 -7.7 -2.5 3.4 1.2 -4.5 3.6 1.7 2.8

May 6.1 -6.3 -1.6 2.5 0.0 -5.5 2.5 -1.4 5.3

Jun 6.8 -5.3 -1.5 3.8 0.6 -4.8 4.6 -1.7 5.1

Jul 6.0 -8.3 -3.4 - - -4.7 0.7 -2.8 3.9

Industrial Production

Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated


2014

Aug 2.0 6.5 1.4 7.0 4.1 7.6 9.5 2.1 -0.3

Sep 1.6 6.7 1.1 5.6 4.2 8.0 8.9 0.7 -0.3

Oct 1.6 6.6 1.2 4.6 4.3 8.3 9.0 1.1 -0.6

Nov 1.4 6.6 1.0 3.3 4.2 9.1 9.2 0.9 -0.6

Dec 1.5 6.4 0.8 4.3 4.1 11.4 8.2 0.6 -1.0

2015

Jan 0.8 7.1 0.8 5.2 3.1 15.0 7.2 -0.9 -1.4

Feb 1.4 7.7 0.5 5.4 3.0 16.7 7.5 -0.2 -1.6

Mar 1.4 8.1 0.4 5.3 3.1 16.9 7.6 -0.6 -1.5

Apr 1.5 8.2 0.4 4.9 3.1 16.4 7.9 -0.8 -1.1

May 1.2 8.5 0.5 5.0 2.9 15.8 8.1 -0.7 -0.9

Jun 1.4 8.9 0.7 5.4 2.9 15.3 7.2 -0.6 -0.8

Jul 1.6 9.6 0.7 3.8 2.7 15.6 6.8 -0.6 -0.7

Aug 2.0 - 0.7 - 2.6 15.8 7.1 -0.4 -

Consumer prices






2014

Aug 9.3 -4.5 -0.4 1.6 3.5 -2.5 -1.8 9.5 -1.1

Sep 15.3 -5.9 6.3 2.1 3.9 -15.0 -0.3 4.6 2.3

Oct 11.6 -19.7 2.3 -5.2 7.8 -4.4 2.0 0.6 -2.7

Nov 4.7 -25.0 -2.7 9.4 4.1 -21.5 -4.5 3.5 -4.5

Dec 9.7 -16.1 3.1 -1.0 3.5 -22.5 -3.3 -2.9 -6.3

2015

Jan -3.3 -14.5 -1.0 -9.4 2.3 -29.7 -1.8 3.4 -10.8

Feb 48.2 -24.1 -3.3 -14.9 -2.5 -19.5 -5.2 -6.7 -8.2

Mar -15.0 -3.7 -4.5 -21.3 -1.3 -30.3 -13.8 -8.9 -10.8

Apr -6.4 -23.2 -8.0 -15.8 -1.6 -33.9 -1.0 -11.7 -14.7

May -2.8 -19.2 -11.0 -21.5 -7.3 -29.8 -15.0 -3.8 -11.1

Jun 2.1 -4.1 -2.6 -15.8 -3.6 -25.6 -11.3 -13.9 -8.5

Jul -8.4 -19.5 -3.4 -10.3 0.0 - -15.6 -11.9 -

Aug -5.5 -24.3 -14.7 - - - - -14.8 -

Exports (US dollars)



2014

Aug -2.5 -4.5 2.9 1.2 6.9 -10.9 -1.8 13.9 0.8

Sep 6.9 9.0 7.6 26.5 4.0 -9.5 -3.2 -0.1 3.4

Oct 4.6 -15.4 -3.3 3.7 7.6 -12.5 -7.4 -1.5 -1.9

Nov -6.8 -5.5 -4.1 26.4 9.8 -22.5 2.9 5.0 -3.1

Dec -2.5 -5.6 -1.0 -3.6 8.1 -24.6 -8.9 -12.3 -1.2

2015

Jan -19.9 -16.0 -11.8 -11.7 1.5 -40.5 -10.6 -4.7 -16.3

Feb -20.5 -17.3 -19.4 -16.5 -1.1 -35.2 -6.8 -22.4 -14.6

Mar -12.7 -5.6 -15.6 -13.5 -0.6 -36.8 -8.9 -17.7 -15.5

Apr -16.2 -23.7 -17.7 -8.0 1.3 -40.8 -11.4 -22.1 -15.8

May -17.7 -30.1 -15.3 -16.1 -3.8 -40.3 -11.6 -5.4 -18.8

Jun -6.4 -16.7 -13.6 -13.4 -0.8 -38.3 -15.2 -16.1 -9.3

Jul -8.2 -24.8 -15.3 -10.3 3.7 - -12.5 -17.4 -

Aug -13.8 -33.7 -18.3 - - - - -16.7 -

Imports (US dollars)



China and emerging currency index World: Exchange rates ......2015/09/10 · China’s economic...

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