Children's Environmental Health Climate-change (1)

8/6/2019 Children's Environmental Health Climate-change (1)

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Climate

Change andHealthWith special referenceto risks facing small

island-states

Anthony J McMichael

National Centre for Epidemiology & Population HealthThe Australian National University

Canberra, ACT 0200


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Climate Change: the debate

Skepticism is now receding. We know that:

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing

GHGs affect the climate system (thankfully!)

World average temperature has risen relatively fastover the past 30 years

Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating

Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes havechanged over the past two decades


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Kilimanjaro 1970


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Kilimanjaro 2000

Ice on Kilimanjaro

0

5

10

15

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Area(km

2 )


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Climate Change: Basic Issues

Earths climate varies naturally because of a variety

of cosmological and geological processes.

Climate change refers to an additional, andrelatively rapid, change induced by human actions.

The additional change several degrees C within a

century will disrupt the foundations of life on Earth.

Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a

narrow band of climatic-environmental conditions.


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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

One Earth is available(The planets total bio-capacity = 1.0)

Number of Earthsused by humanity

Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002

Num

berofEar

ths


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From: Steffen et al. In press 2004

Atmos CO2conc

Domesticated landLoss of trop forest, woodland

Coastal shrimp farmsFully exploited fisheries

Climate disastersAv surface temp

(NH)

Atmos ozone loss

Atmos CH4concAtmos N2O conc

Coastal N2 flux

Global biodiversity

Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000


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Band of historical

climatic variability

20

15

1900 21002000

14

16

17

18

13

19

Average Global

Temperature (OC)

Year

205019501860

IPCC (2001)

estimatesa 1.4-5.8 oCincrease

Low

High

Central estimate = 2.5 oC(plus increased variability)

This presents a rate-of-change

problem for many natural

systems/processes


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Sea-level rise over coming centuriesfollowing 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions

200 400 600 800

Time from start (years)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Sea-lev

elrise(m) Total sea level rise

Ocean Expansion

Ice-melt

Greenhouse gas emissions (super-Kyoto action)

IPCC 2001IPCC, 2001

Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium

Peaking in 2050


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SLR Risks to SmallIsland-States

Coastal flooding

Amplified storm surges

Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.) Salination of island fresh-water (esp.

subterranean cells)

Impaired crop production

Population displacement: diverse health risks(nutrition, infection, mental health)


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Health effects

Temperature-related

illness and death

Extreme weather-

related health effects

Air pollution-related

health effects

Water and food-borne

diseases

Vector borne and

rodent borne diseases

Health Effects

Temperature-related

illness and death

Extreme weather-

related (floods, storms,

etc.) health effects

Air pollution-related

health effects

Human

exposures

Regional weatherchanges

Heat waves

Extreme weather

Temperature

Precipitation

Regional weatherchanges

Heat waves

Extreme weather

Temperature

Sea-level rise

Contamination

pathways

Transmission

dynamics-

-

-

-rodent

Microbial changes:

Contamination paths

Transmission dynamics

Water and food-bornediseases

Vector borne and

borne diseases

ClimateChangeClimateChange

Changes in agro-

ecosystems, hydrology

Socioeconomic and

demographic disruption

Effects of food and

water shortages

Mental, nutritional,

infectious-disease and

other effects

Modulatinginfluences


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ENSO and

climate change

The effect of global climate change on the future frequencyand/or amplitude of El Nio is uncertain .

Events may become more frequent or more intense.

However, even with little change in amplitude, climatechange is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and

heavy rainfall, and to increase the risk of droughts andfloods that occur with El Nio

[IPCC 2001].


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VECTOR-BORNEDISEASE

Estimated population at risk of dengue fever


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1990

2085

Estimated population at risk of dengue feverunder standard climate change scenario:1990, 2085

Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August 2002.

.
http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf


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Baseline2000 Courtesy: Kris Ebi

Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. I


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Baseline20002025Courtesy: Kris Ebi

Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. II


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Baseline200020252050Courtesy: Kris Ebi

Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. III


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What Should Health Ministries Do?

Commission/conduct national assessments of risks to healthfrom CC (and SLR)

Participate in emergency management preparedness(communications, facilities, skills)

Argue the centrality of population health as the real bottomline in the sustainability debate

Make links with other ministries education, primaryindustry (agriculture), fisheries, development planning, etc.

Highlight the sense and cost-savings of adaptation

strategies, to lessen adverse impacts


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ThatThat

s Alls All


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Global average temperature (oC) over the past millennium


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The International Energy Agency predicts that the

increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to

2030 in China alone will almost equal the increase fromthe entire industrialized world.

China is the world's second largest emitter of such

gases, after the United States even though China's

per-person emissions are, for example, still only one-

eighth of those in the United States.

GHG: Coming Decades


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Climate change impacts on rain-fed

cereal production, 2080

(IIASA: Fischer et al, 2001)

Need to convert estimates of regionalfood yields into estimates of changes in

numbers of malnourished people


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Scenario: A1F1 (high) CSIROMK2

Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Headland

Broome..

..

..

..Carnarvon.

Scenario: A1B (mid) CSIROMK2

Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Headland

Broome..

.

. ....

Carnarvon.

Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Headland

Broome..

..

..

.. Brisbane.

Model Estimate: CurrentDengue Risk Region

NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003

Dengue Fever: Estimated geographic

region suitable for maintenance ofAe.

aegypti, alternative climate scenarios

for 2050


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Categories of climate

extremes Simple extremes based directly on climate

statistics

Hot day = day with temperature > 95th

centile

Complex, event-driven extremes

Droughts

Floods Hurricanes/typhoons/tropical cyclones


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Changes in climaticphenomenon

Confidence inobserved changes

(latter half of 1900s)

Probability ofprojected changes

to 2100

Higher maximum temperatures- more hot days

Likely Very likely

Higher minimum temperatures,- fewer cold days and frost days

Very likely Very likely

Increase of heat index over landareas

Likely Very likely

More intense precipitation events Likely,(N mid to high

latitudes)

Very likely

Increased summer continental dryingand associated risk of drought

Likely, in a few areas Likely, over mostmid-latitudecontinental

interiors.Increase in tropical cyclone peak

wind intensitiesNot observed in the

few analysisavailable

Likely, over someareas

Increase in tropical cyclone mean andpeak precipitation intensities

Insufficient data Likely, over someareas

IPCC WORKING GROUP I, Third Assessment Report, 2001

Children's Environmental Health Climate-change (1)

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