Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY?

Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region

Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008

UNICEF

Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children

• data from people – and children

• from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’

• focus on ‘performance gaps’

• being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support?

UNICEF

For first time in more than a decade, resources are available

• A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years

• A 3rd wave of reforms is underway

• but there are risks– Spending will be on infrastructure – Policies remain sectoral – Political support for reform falters– External conditions change

UNICEF

4 Parts to Presentation

• Some Building Blocks • Where are we now ?• Big Issues (added value of study?)• What is driving policy?

UNICEF

Building Blocks 1

Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected

Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services

Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…)

Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood

Importance of children’s perspectives

UNICEF

Building Blocks 2

Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children • Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to

current or emerging challenges – Certain groups of children always excluded– ‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor– Often unable to monitor effect of their policies

• Reform can produce exclusion – ‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state– models imported from outside, not fully contextualised – incomplete reform– old models restored

UNICEF

4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response

‘the best interests of the child’

non-discrimination

participation

resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’

UNICEF

A Story of Crisis and Economic Re-bound

0

50

100

150

GD

P p

er c

apita

ind

ex (1

989

=100

)

Albania

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Bulgaria

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Romania

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths…

UNICEF

Where are we now?

Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being

Material situation Housing Health Education Peer relationships Family forms and care Risk and Safety

UNICEF

Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom (implementation)

• Vulnerability still High

• Rise in disparities

• Erosion of social services

• New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS

UNICEF

Performance Gap 1Poverty is coming down….

18.4

102.061.2

40.0

46.0

160.7

153.3

108.8

395.6

215.1

264.2

329.2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Around1990

Around1998-99

Around2002-3

By 2007

Non-Poor: Above$ 4.30 a Day

Vulnerable: Above$ 2.15 and Below$ 4.30 a Day

Poor: Below $ 2.15a Day

Source : World Bank 2005

UNICEF

But not all children are benefitting from economic growth

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ave

rage

GD

P p

er c

apita

(in

cur

rent

PP

P

$)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

For

mal

car

e (r

ate

per

100,

000)

GDPFormal care

Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries.

GDP and public care of children:

UNICEF

Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004)

Czech Republic

Hungary

PolandSlovakia

Slovenia

EstoniaLatvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

AlbaniaCroatia

Belarus

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

ArmeniaAzerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

6065

7075

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$

Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

Czech R.

HungaryPolandSlovakia

Slovenia

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

Albania

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Belarus

MoldovaRussia

UkraineArmenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

510

1520

2530

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004

Fitted values

Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality

Source: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

New barriers for the poorInformal Payments During Most Recent Consultation

Source: Balabanova 2004

8

19

28

40

42

47

56

65

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Belarus

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Republic of Moldova

Armenia

Georgia

%

UNICEF

Performance Gap 4 : Education Upper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%)

Czech Republic

HungaryPoland

Slovakia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

Albania

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Belarus

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

20

40

60

80

10

0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 Source: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

UNICEF

Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004)

Czech RepublicHungary

Poland

SlovakiaSlovenia

Latvia

Lithuania

BulgariaRomania

Albania

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

KyrgyzstanTajikistan

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

020

4060

80

%

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP Source: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

Access to Pre-School - by Income

Quintile

Figure 3.11: Attendance rate, 3-4 year olds, by household consumption level, selected countries, 2005

0102030405060708090

100

%

Top quintile

Bottom quintile

Source: UNICEF 2007

UNICEF

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Belar

us

Mon

tene

gro

Serbi

a

Bosni

a & H

.

Mol

dova

Mac

edon

ia

Geo

rgia

Armen

ia

Kazak

hsta

n

Kyrgy

zsta

n

Turkm

enist

an

Uzbek

istan

Azerb

aijan

Alban

ia

Tajikis

tan

Poorest w ealth index

Richest w ealth index

Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets

Source: MICS 2006

UNICEF

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Belaru

s

Mon

tene

gro

Roman

ia

Bosnia

& H

.

Mold

ova

Mac

edon

ia

Georg

ia

Turk

ey

Armen

ia

Kazak

hsta

n

Kyrgy

zsta

n

Turk

men

istan

Uzbek

istan

Azerb

aijan

Albania

Tajik

istan

%

Low maternal education

High maternal education

Stunting by maternal education

Source: MICS 2006

UNICEF

Czech RepublicHungary

PolandSlovakia

Slovenia

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

Albania

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Belarus

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

Armenia

AzerbaijanGeorgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

2040

6080

100

120

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP Per Capita $ PPP

Fitted values

Performance Gap 7 : Young PeopleMortality Rates 15-19yrs

Source: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

An epidemic with its roots in poverty

Incidence of HIV infections

Source: EuroHIV 2007

UNICEF

Why did children lose out in the first

phase of transition?

• Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation • Fiscal squeeze• Lack of institutional structures that protected their

interests• Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful • Past practices …

UNICEF

Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

% G

DP

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Ukraine

Russian Federation

Republic of Moldova

BelarusSource: WHO database 2008

UNICEF

A more mixed picture on EducationGovernment Expenditures on Education/GDP (%)

2004

Czech Republic

HungaryPoland

Bulgaria

Albania

FYR Macedonia

BelarusMoldova Ukraine

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

23

45

6

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, 2004

Fitted valuesSource: TRANSMONEE

UNICEF

Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006

Health care Education Housing

Pensions Environment Public infrastructure

Other

HEALTH

EDUCATION

HOUSING

PENSIONS

UNICEF

What are the big issues?

• Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ?

• What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies?

• A package of interventions & services all children have access to?

• Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads?

• Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? • How is Decentralization best approached?

UNICEF

Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters!

UNICEF

What does this mean for the study?

• That need for a clear hypothesis

• The link to policy - right from the start

• How can the analysis support (and inform)reform?

• Lead to a change in paradigm