Childcare Services Existing Conditions and Issues

R ll A A h b lt VP d P i i lRussell A. Archambault, VP and PrincipalMelissa Cohen, Market Analyst/Planner

RKG Associates, Inc.Alexandria, VA Alexandria, VA

October 3, 2009

Focus on services for children under age 6 Focus on services for children under age 6 Examined child care services at Fort Lee and

in study area communitiesy Cursory assessment of before-and-after

school servicesF d d f i id d l Future demand for services considered only direct impacts of military expansion

Child care costs Child care costs Quantity vs. Quality

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Estimated regional supply of child care derived from Estimated regional supply of child care derived from DSS database (number/type of facilities, total child care “slots”, schedule (days/hours of operation), locationlocation

Does not track available or vacant slots Approximately 20,000 child care slots (300 providers)

in study area Over 6,700 child care slots, or 34% of the study

area total are located within 10 miles of Fort Leearea total, are located within 10 miles of Fort Lee 66% licensed – 34% unlicensed No estimate of unregulated home-based providers

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Location Facilities Slots % Total Slots* Low HighFull-Day Child Care Facilities Est. Avail. Slots

Location Facilities Slots % Total Slots Low HighChesterfield 139 10,869 72% 1,087 1,630 Colonial Heights 8 1,013 81% 101 152 Dinwiddie 10 248 69% 25 37 Hopewell 17 787 71% 79 118 Petersburg 49 1,033 71% 103 155 Prince George 6 332 41% 33 50

Total 229 14 282 71% 1 428 2 142Total 229 14,282 71% 1,428 2,142 * % ot total slots in each communitySource: VA Department of Social Services and RKG Associates

Estimated 10%-15% vacant slots Larger centers may have higher vacancyg y g y Estimates are very fluid

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Distance toFort Lee CDC FDH CCS CCE VR Total % Total

Child Care Facilities by TypeLicensed Unlicensed

<10 miles 48 41 0 22 33 144 47%10-15 miles 9 14 0 4 8 35 11%>15 miles 46 42 2 27 12 129 42%

Total 103 97 2 53 53 308 100%Total 103 97 2 53 53 308 100%

Distance toChild Care Slots by Type

UnlicensedLicensedFort Lee CDC FDH CCS CCE VR* Total % Total

<10 miles 4,388 439 0 1,761 132 6,720 34%10-15 miles 1,536 157 0 440 32 2,165 11%>15 miles 7 371 486 230 2 987 48 11 122 56%>15 miles 7,371 486 230 2,987 48 11,122 56%

Total 13,295 1,082 230 5,188 212 20,007 100%* Estimated number of slotsSource: VA Department of Social Services

October 09Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Shortage of infant/toddler slotsg• Estimate approximately 1,160-1,860 available at

both full & part-day facilities

Only 21 (9.2%) facilities listed as open on weekends

Only 24 (10.5%) facilities had start times before 6 a m and 41 (17 9%) stayed open past 7 p ma.m. and 41 (17.9%) stayed open past 7 p.m.

Only a few centers in study area possess national accreditation statusaccreditation status

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Based on projected growth of children under age 6 Based on projected growth of children under age 6 from military-related families through 2011

Secondary growth not evaluated Secondary growth not evaluated

Considered supply within 15-mile radius of the post

Included full-day child care facilities only

Assumed vacancy of 10%-15%

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Projected TotalLocation Demand Slots Low High

Chesterfield 120 3 054 305 458

Est. Avail. Slots

Chesterfield 120 3,054 305 458Colonial Heights 27 1,013 101 152Dinwiddie 19 248 25 37H ll 27 787 79 118Hopewell 27 787 79 118Petersburg 41 1,033 103 155Prince George 48 332 33 50F t L * 103 198 100 100Fort Lee* 103 198 100 100

Total 385 6,665 657 985* Estimated availability at Fort Lee assumes new facility construction

Tight demand-to-capacity in several locations Estimates considered conservative

Source: VA Department of Social Services and RKG Associates

Estimates considered conservative

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Chester costs are 20%- 40% higher than other Chester costs are 20% 40% higher than other locales

Petersburg generally most affordable Military families making more than $34 000 could Military families making more than $34,000 could

generally find comparable prices off-post Supply of affordable child care slots could not be

determined from available data Military provides subsidies for off-post child care

but facility must be nationally accredited orbut facility must be nationally accredited or credentialed – only several located in study area which limits usefulness of program

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Income Monthly Step %Category Family Income Cost Increase Increase

1 Up to $28,000 $196 - -2 $28,001-$34,000 $314 $118 60%3 $34,001-$44,000 $368 $54 17%4 $44,001-$55,000 $424 $56 15%5 $55,001-$70,000 $504 $80 19%, ,6 More than $70,000 $550 $46 9%

Source: Fort Lee CYSD

October 09Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Promotes standards that surpass basic licensing and p gregulatory requirements

Recognizes child care as extension or precursor of Recognizes child care as extension or precursor of education system as opposed to “baby sitting” service

Early Childhood Learning

Revolves around education & training system for Revolves around education & training system for child care professionals, learning curriculum, and physical environment of the facility

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

QRIS Star Quality Initiative being tested in pilot program of 200 child care facilitiesprogram of 200 child care facilities

Funding for training professionals, expanding i l d di f iliticurriculum resources, and upgrading facilities

Participation in program by child care providers will be voluntary – a market driven approach

Upgraded child care could increase costs Upgraded child care could increase costs

Star rating system will likely direct parents to higher quality providers and force others to get certifiedquality providers and force others to get certified

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Study area has considerable supply of total child care slots but distribution is skewed towards northern portions of study area

Projected demand of direct growth from military-related families can generally be absorbed by estimated vacant child care slots

• Prince George and Dinwiddie Counties may experience tightening of child care supply – could cause spillover to adjoining areasFort Lee’s on post supply may also be tight despite pending expansion plans of child• Fort Lee s on-post supply may also be tight despite pending expansion plans of child development center – could also cause spillover effect

Before & After school programs in Prince George may requiring restructuring and/or expansion due to growth

Shortages exist for infant/toddler care, extended hours of operation, and weekend care

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy

Average cost of study area child care generally commensurate with on-post rates co e su ate t o post ates

Approximately one third of providers operate as unlicensed facilities under state’s regulatory program

Licensing requirements are considered to be minimum standards – but very few accredited facilities near Fort LLee

State initiatives to improve child care quality are moving forward – using voluntary market-driven approachforward – using voluntary, market-driven approach

Future increases in quality may be more evident in higher income, more densely developed portions of study areaincome, more densely developed portions of study area

Fort Lee Growth Management Strategy