Childcare availability and female labor supply Anna Lovasz - Agnes Szabo-Morvai The impact of...
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![Page 1: Childcare availability and female labor supply Anna Lovasz - Agnes Szabo-Morvai The impact of day-care services on mothers’ employment, fertility, and.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649e755503460f94b75df2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Childcare availability and female labor supply
Anna Lovasz - Agnes Szabo-Morvai
The impact of day-care services on mothers’ employment, fertility, and redistribution in
Visegrad countries - WorkshopBudapest, March 30-31, 2012
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Research question and literature
• How does the lack of formal childcare availability constrain female labor supply?– International evidence that it does constrain:
Apps&Rees 2001; Kimmel 1992,2001; Lokshin 2004– Who is most affected by constraint?
• By income, education level, region/settlement type, family status, age
– Is the market for private daycare „stepping in” where public is insufficient?
• Is this increasing inequality based on affordability?
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Relevance• Policy issues:
– Where to build kindergartens?– Who should pay and how much for nurseries?– Should market for private daycare be encouraged more
(decrease administrative barriers, etc)?Labor market activity
– Bick, 2010: lack of subsidized childcare is a barrier to female labor supply
– Connelly, 1992: higher child care costs are the primary reason of lower participation rate of mothers
Fertility– Apps & Rees, 2001, Del Boca and Sauer, 2009 : countries with
better prospects for mothers of small children (availability of childcare and flexible jobs), have higher female labor supply and fertility rate
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Childcare availability
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DataCombine three data sources, Hungary 2002-2011:• Labor Force Survey
– Household composition, labor status, children– Rotating panel, at most 6 quarters’ data about one
household• T-STAR Geographical data
– Nursery and kindergarten availability, family daycare (2008-2010), commuting
– Matched to LFS using settlement codes• Wage and Employment Survey
– Expected wage according to education, industry, etc.
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Childcare scarcity in Hungary
Scar
city Kindergarten: 69%
Nursery: 99%
Utilization rate = enrolled children / available places
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Methodology: what happens at age 3?
• Increase in availability between nursery and kindergarten effect on LS?– Kindergarten should accept all children above 3 if
open places left– Largest enrollment wave in September – Continuous enrollment if unfilled places
• typically in lower quality kindergartens• often wait until next September, when kids leave for
school
• Problem: other effects at age 3– Maternity leave ends– Willingness to separate from child?
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Factors affecting childcare usage and mother’s labor market participation when child turns 3
Childcare availability
Willingness to separate (Blaskó)-This factor is present and has a strong effect-Its timing is uncertain-Continuous variable
Maternity leave-High-sum maternity support ends at age 2, no work allowed-Low-sum maternity support (~ 100 EUR) ends at age 3-Mothers are allowed to work and receive low-sum support
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Facts and Figures I.0
.2.4
.6.8
Act
ivity
ra
te
0 2 4 6 8Age of youngest child (year)
Activity rate vs age of youngest child
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Facts and Figures II..5
.52
.54
.56
.58
Act
ivity
ra
te
0 5 10 15Month of the year
Activity rate through the year (child: 3-3.5y)
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Facts and Figures III.0
10
00
20
00
30
00
40
00
Co
un
t
0 2 4 6 8Age of youngest child (year)
Want a job: NO; N/l b/c child: NO Want a job: NO; N/l b/c child: YESWant a job: YES; N/l b/c child: NO Want a job: YES; N/l b/c child: YESWork
Working and reasons for not searching
Work
Don’t want; N.l. b/c childcare problem
Don’t want; N.l. b/c NO childcare problem
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Facts and Figures IV.0
.2.4
.6.8
Perc
ent
0 2 4 6 8Age of youngest child (year)
Work Available for work in 2 weeksNot looking for a job b/c of a child Not search, but want a job
Work availability and search
Working
Available
Not looking b/c of child
Not looking, but want
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Ideal experiment and problems• Population of women who want a child (unobservable)• Assign children to them randomly (no sample selection)• Randomly offer them (group 1) or not (group 2) childcare
(childcare availability is exogenous) Compare the activity rate of group 1 & 2• Problems in real life data:
– Selection into motherhood– Endogeneity of childcare availability– Concurrent „treatment”: end of maternity leave
• Usually tackled by parametric, multi-equation models– Selection into motherhood is usually not handled by these
We plan to take an approach that requires less behavioral assumptions but handles these problems
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Quasi-experiment: regression discontinuity design
• Random assignment would solve selection problem
• Can think of mothers of children aged 2.7-3.3 as very similar, except:– Under 3: only nursery, low childcare availability (7%
on average)– Over 3: kindergarten, high availability (83% on
average)• In this „discontinuity sample”, assignment is
random– Child age not correlated to characteristics that
determine participation– Except: willingness to outsource daycare
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Strategy 1
Kr: regional kindergarten availability: available kg places / number of children (or # of chilod-bearing age women)Nr: regional nursery school availabilityGamma i: other parameters that affect availability
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Local Average Treatment Effect
Age of youngest child
Activ
ity ra
te
3
LATE
Observed
Unobserved
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Preliminary results: activity rate by level of change in childcare availability
• Availability: number of places / number of children in population of given age • Change in availability if: No nursery, but kindergarten available OR availability of
kindergarten is higher0
.2.4
.6.8
Act
ivity
ra
te
0 2 4 6 8Age of youngest child (year)
(mean) aktiv_change (mean) aktiv_nochange
Activity rate vs age of youngest child
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Strategy 2
• Exploit gap between when child turns 3 (end of maternity leave) and kindergarten enrollment month (mostly in September)?
Maternity leaveEnrollm. 0 1 Total
0 3,134 55,468 58,602 1 59,266 0 59,266
Total 62,400 55,468 117,868
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Preliminary results: activity by regular or late enrollment
0
.2.4
.6.8
Act
ivity
ra
te
0 2 4 6 8Age of youngest child (year)
(mean) aktiv_enrolltime (mean) aktiv_enrolllate2
Activity rate vs age of youngest child
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Strategy 3
• Available places in 2010: – in nurseries : 26.000– in family daycare: 4.000
• appr. 15% increase in available places since 2007, with geographical differences
• Source of variation: – geographical and time differences of childcare
availability– regional differences in availability growth
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Issues/questions• Develop model and RD design: what is treatment? Exogenous change in change in availability (Ex: retirement of
kindergarten teacher leads to closing) Reduced form: we observe childcare availability and labor
market participation, but do not observe actual enrollment for given mothers
• Female labor supply or household decision model? literature shows decisions made jointly when young children
present (Lundberg 1988)• Fertility decision not modeled• Include family members: informal childcare• Childcare availability or affordability?• Availability at location: living or working? use Kertesi et al.: composed small regions based on
commuting data• Availability of flexible jobs?
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ANY COMMENTS ARE WELCOME!Thank you for your attention,