Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal....
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Transcript of Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal....
![Page 1: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Chicken Little hypotheses
• Null Hypothesis (H0):
Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal.
• Alternative Hypothesis (Ha):
Chicken Little is correct and the sky is falling!
![Page 4: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Decision:
CorrectType 1 Error
“False Positive”
Type 2 Error
“False Negative”
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What type of error did the birds make when they listened to Chicken Little?
![Page 5: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Decision:
CorrectType 1 Error
“False Positive”
Type 2 Error
“False Negative”
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What type of error did the birds make when they listened to Chicken Little?
![Page 6: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Cassandra
• Granted the power of prophecy by Apollo.
• Cursed so that no one would believe her
• Prophecy of the Trojan Horse and the Fall of Troy
![Page 7: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Cassandra hypotheses• Null Hypothesis (H0):
Cassandra is wrong and the Trojans are winning the war.
• Alternative Hypothesis (Ha):
Cassandra is correct and a Greek ambush is imminent!
![Page 8: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Decision:
CorrectType 1 Error
“False Positive”
Type 2 Error
“False Negative”
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What type of error did the Trojans make when they didn’t listen to Cassandra?
![Page 9: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Decision:
CorrectType 1 Error
“False Positive”
Type 2 Error
“False Negative”
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What type of error did the Trojans make when they didn’t listen to Cassandra?
![Page 10: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Thomas Malthus (~1800)
• Economist who studied populations.
• Exponential population growth, linear food production (boom and bust)
• Positive checks: famine, disease, and war (death)
• Preventative checks: Birth control, abortion, and older ages of marriage
![Page 11: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Malthusian Growth Model
![Page 12: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Has there been a “Malthusian
catastrophe”?
![Page 13: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Ester Boserup• Mid to late 1900s
• “Boserupian Theory”
• Developments or inventions cause jumps in the food supply to match the growing population
![Page 14: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Time
![Page 15: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Time
![Page 16: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Consequences?
![Page 17: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Malthusian hypotheses
• Null Hypothesis (H0):
Malthus is wrong and catastrophe is not imminent.
• Alternative Hypothesis (Ha):
Malthus is correct and catastrophe IS imminent
![Page 18: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Decision:
Correct(Malthus is right, and we agreed with him).
Type 1 Error(Malthus is wrong and we agreed with him). Chicken Little
Type 2 Error(Malthus is right and we disagreed with him). Cassandra
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct(Malthus is wrong and we disagreed with him).
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What would be the consequences of a Type 2 Error?of a Type 1 Error?
Malthus
![Page 19: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Decision:
Correct(Malthus is right, and we agreed with him).
Type 1 Error(Malthus is wrong and we agreed with him). Chicken Little
Type 2 Error(Malthus is right and we disagreed with him). Cassandra
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Correct(Malthus is wrong and we disagreed with him).
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
What would be the consequences of a Type 2 Error?of a Type 1 Error?
Malthus
![Page 20: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Julian Simon• Economist
• Consequences of Type 1 error: slowing of economic growth
• Human ingenuity the scarcest resource
• Growth and development are the answer to our problems
![Page 21: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Riskiness of Errors• Chicken Little?• Cassandra?• Malthus? (Overpopulation?)
• Climate Change?
![Page 22: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Climate hypotheses• Null Hypothesis (H0):
Climate Scientists are wrong and catastrophe is not imminent.
• Alternative Hypothesis (Ha):
Climate Scientists are correct and catastrophe IS imminent
![Page 23: Chicken Little hypotheses Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): Chicken Little is wrong and everything is normal. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Chicken Little is.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ea75503460f94baaaf2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Decision:
Null is False
Null is True
Reality:
Reject Null
Fail to Reject Null
Climate Scientists are right and we agree with them. Action.
Type 1 Error (Chicken Little)“False Positive”
Consequences?Risky?
Type 2 Error(Cassandra)“False Negative”
Consequences? Risky?
Climate Scientists are wrong and we disagree with them. Inaction.