Chicago crime conference
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Transcript of Chicago crime conference
www.shapingtomorrow.com
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Presented by:Dr Mike Jackson
Founder – Shaping Tomorrow
Leading in a Global Environment
The Future of Crime to 2030
www.shapingtomorrow.com
2Shaping Tomorrow
www.shapingtomorrow.com
3
Competitorsand new
approaches
Source: Sheila Moorcroft
Demographics Values andlifestyles
Energy andresources
Worldevents
Legislation
Newtechnologies
Economictrends
KeyIssues/
question(s)
Future of Crime to 2030
There are thousands of trends at any one timeHow do you make sense of and respond to it all?
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Technology trendsDriverless carsGoogle Glass/Oculus riftDrones/Exoskeletons/RobotsWearables/CloakingCloud/Big dataCyber security IoT and SMART everythingMobile payments/self serve!Artificial intelligence3D printed guns, drugs & ?
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – Newton
One man’s meat is another’s poison –Lucretius
The future is already here: it’s just unevenly distributed -William Gibson
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55Business trendsCrowd-sourcingZero cost40% of existing jobs eliminated by 2020!But, talent shortages
and, many new roles
Predictive analyticsReal-time artificial intelligenceSocial networking
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66Values and lifestylesSocial
Behavioral monitoringInstant gratificationAgeingLack of trustFinancial instabilityUnemploymentCivil unrest
https://uk-mg-bt.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.partner=bt-1&.rand=1n3ejdfu45vtd#mail
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7Political trends
Rising inequalityCyber securityTransparency vs privacyDemographics
Time, distance and price are collapsing
TRUST THE KEY USP!!
Anticipation and preparedness CRITICAL!! BUT HOW?
Proactive forward policy required
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88Potential surprises
Supply chain threatsTerrorismInfrastructure damageFinancial riskExtreme weatherExtraction/frackingTechnology misuseConventional and asymmetric threats
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9Future policing?Individualized crime assessments/organisation dataExploiting intelligence to assist officers in real-timeGreater focus on cyber crimeContinued fight against drug trafficking/BitcoinsOpen-source intelligence inc videoLegal CloudsSMART policemen and vehiclesRobo-cops!Greater risk, change and business management skills
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1010Preparing for the future
Horizon scanningStrategic foresightAction planningChange preparednessNetworking
A switch from static news gathering, limited analysis and reactive response to:
Dynamic intelligence reconnaissance, whole system thinking and anticipatory response and preparedness
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1111Early warning
Using social & web intelligence to see what’s coming
Cypruscrisis
Growthreturns
UkraineChina
Source: Shaping Tomorrow
Graphical pattern finding
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1212Strategic foresight
Automatic and crowd scans for: search terms,organizations,peoplescanners,protesters, regulators etc.
Continuous and systematic scanning
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1. Geopolitical tensions over access to strategic water resources could become more systemically impactful.
2. Among other existential risks is the possibility that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence could move rapidly in unexpected directions
3. The inevitable spread of drone technology will create new hard-to-address capabilities for actors
4. Organized-crime groups or national militaries have an overwhelming, dominant and lasting advantage over defenders could be just one disruptive technology away. Knowing which is key?
5. more ..
80 page report read in 20 seconds
Auto scanning example
Auto foresight
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14Aggregated foresight
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1515Watson
Cognitive technology that processes information more like a human than a computer—by understanding natural language, generating hypotheses based on evidence and learning
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IBM's Watson Can Now Debate Its Opponents
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1616Modeling, gaming and simulationStructured data analytics
Visual dashboards as early warning systemsBalanced scorecardsPartnership approaches
MMORPGS e.g IFTF Warcraft equivalents
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1717World data/future data
Rising interest in mixing large data sets
e.g crime and happiness
Massive funding for global intelligence projectsData fusion e.g GapMinderForward Indicators e.g.
Shock Index
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1818Predictive analytics
Aim to move from single keyword to real-time, multiple meta data searchesScour the web, extract, analyze, rank, make it usefulCollaboration, knowledge management, search and discovery, data integration
Big Data uses for Foresight
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1919Content profiling
Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile:e.g. industry, interests, expertise
Sentiment analysise.g. fear, excitement
Narrative capturee.g. ideas
Latent Semantic Indexinge.g. concept searches
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2020Think & Act
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2121Law enforcement - strategic foresight intelligenceRequirements
Knowledge managementSystematicCollaborativePersistentNational serviceLow cost
BenefitsStrategicAgilePersistentResilientInnovationRisk aware
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A national/global law enforcement Oracle?
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2222Thanks for listening
Questions? Contact me to receive this presentation in your organization?Mike Jackson
(H) 01902 851918(O) 01902 851985(M) 07966 155912(E) [email protected](S)* shapingtomorrow
or visit us at shapingtomorrow.com* Skype
* Skype