Chesapeake Bay Seminar Series

Sea level rise and coastal change:What the last several hundred years and Hurricane Isabeltell us about future coastal vulnerability in Chesapeake Bay

Michael Kearney (Department of Geography, University of Maryland)

Online broadcast athttp://ian.umces.edu/seminarbroadcast.htm

Hosted by the Integration & Application Network at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

http://ian.umces.edu

integration application network

Sea level and coastal change:Sea level and coastal change:What the last several hundred years and What the last several hundred years and

Hurricane Isabel tell us about future Hurricane Isabel tell us about future coastal vulnerability in Chesapeake Baycoastal vulnerability in Chesapeake Bay

Michael S. KearneyMichael S. KearneyDepartment of GeographyDepartment of Geography

OutlineOutline•• Flooding is often associated with Flooding is often associated with

storms and hurricanesstorms and hurricanes•• Sea level is rising inSea level is rising in

Chesapeake BayChesapeake Bay•• Flooding is enhanced with sea level Flooding is enhanced with sea level

rise, storm surge & wave setuprise, storm surge & wave setup•• Salt marshes are affectedSalt marshes are affected

by sea level riseby sea level rise•• Better storm surge predictive Better storm surge predictive

capacity neededcapacity neededM

ean

sea

leve

l (m

m)

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

Year

1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2001

30 cm or 1 ftsea level

rise

Hurricane Floyd (1999) caused Hurricane Floyd (1999) caused massive flooding in North Carolinamassive flooding in North Carolina

Image NOAA/GOESImage NOAA/GOES

Image US Army Corps of EngineersImage US Army Corps of Engineers

Large floods have historically Large floods have historically been devastatingbeen devastating

Image Isaac's Storm by Erik LarsonImage Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson

Galveston Island, Texas, Sept 8 1900 after a Category 4 hurricanGalveston Island, Texas, Sept 8 1900 after a Category 4 hurricanee

Canals in Holland regularly froze during Canals in Holland regularly froze during ‘Little Ice Age’ (ca. 1400‘Little Ice Age’ (ca. 1400--1850)1850)

Winter Landscape, Pieter Breugel the Younger Winter Landscape, Pieter Breugel the Younger –– 1601 Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna. 1601 Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna.

Relative sea level rise =Relative sea level rise =

Chesapeake Bay has had a slow rate of sea level rise Chesapeake Bay has had a slow rate of sea level rise (~0.56 mm/yr) over the last thousand years(~0.56 mm/yr) over the last thousand years

Kearney, M.S. (1996) J. Coastal Res. 12: 977Kearney, M.S. (1996) J. Coastal Res. 12: 977--983983

Historical maps, charts and photography Historical maps, charts and photography have been used to infer changehave been used to infer change

Image Maryland ArchivesImage Maryland Archives Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991)Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991)J. Coastal Res. 7: 403J. Coastal Res. 7: 403--415415

1919thth and earlyand early2020thth century

mid 20mid 20thth century century onward

1717thth centurycenturycentury onward

Chesapeake Bay islandsChesapeake Bay islandsare rapidly disappearingare rapidly disappearing

Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991) J. Coastal Res. 7: 403Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991) J. Coastal Res. 7: 403--415415

James Island is a well documented James Island is a well documented disappearing islanddisappearing island

Photo by David Harp 1999Photo by David Harp 1999

Stevenson, J.C., and Kearney, M.S. (1996). Pp 233Stevenson, J.C., and Kearney, M.S. (1996). Pp 233--259 in 259 in Estuarine Shores: evolution, environments and human Estuarine Shores: evolution, environments and human alterationsalterations, Nordstrom, K.F., and Roman, C.T. (, Nordstrom, K.F., and Roman, C.T. (edseds). ).

Civil War archaeology: Civil War archaeology: Effects of shore Effects of shore erosion on Union prison camp in S. Marylanderosion on Union prison camp in S. Maryland

Image: Image: The Vanishing LandsThe Vanishing Lands by S.P. by S.P. LeathermanLeatherman

Many Chesapeake Bay islands have alreadyMany Chesapeake Bay islands have already disappeared or been abandoneddisappeared or been abandoned

Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991) J. Coastal Res. 7: 403Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C. (1991) J. Coastal Res. 7: 403--415415

Chesapeake Bay islandsChesapeake Bay islandsare rapidly disappearingare rapidly disappearing

Image: J.C. StevensonImage: J.C. Stevenson

BlackwaterBlackwater National Wildlife RefugeNational Wildlife Refuge

Sea level is rising in Chesapeake Bay Sea level is rising in Chesapeake Bay (Baltimore tide gauge)(Baltimore tide gauge)

The mean rise in sea level in the upper Chesapeake since 1950 ~ The mean rise in sea level in the upper Chesapeake since 1950 ~ 3 mm/yr.3 mm/yr.There have been several sharp decadal accelerations (runThere have been several sharp decadal accelerations (run--ups)ups)

in sea level since 1950, most notably since the late 1980s.in sea level since 1950, most notably since the late 1980s.Kearney, M.S. et al (2002) EOS 83: 173,177Kearney, M.S. et al (2002) EOS 83: 173,177--178178

Sea level rise determined from Sea level rise determined from satellites is ~1 mm/yr faster compared satellites is ~1 mm/yr faster compared

with tide gauges with tide gauges (Douglas 2001)(Douglas 2001)

TopexTopex/Poseidon Jet Propulsion Laboratory 8/28/03/Poseidon Jet Propulsion Laboratory 8/28/03

~2.8 mm/yr

Virginia Beach storm surges maps are partVirginia Beach storm surges maps are part of their emergency preparednessof their emergency preparedness

http://http://www.vbgov.comwww.vbgov.com//

Wave setup can compound the Wave setup can compound the effect of sea level rise effect of sea level rise

Large waves moving directly onshore

Waves from Hurricane Isabel on North Carolina’s coastWaves from Hurricane Isabel on North Carolina’s coast

Total flood height =Total flood height =sea level + storm surge + wave setupsea level + storm surge + wave setup

US Army Corps of Engineers US Army Corps of Engineers Shore Protection ManualShore Protection Manual

Relative wave power increased Relative wave power increased with increasing water depthwith increasing water depth

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1 2 3 4

Cases

Rela

tive

Wav

e P

ower

15’

15’

16’

16’

2 s wave

4 s wave

Sea level rise will increase riskSea level rise will increase riskof coastal erosion and floodingof coastal erosion and flooding

US EPAUS EPA

(m)

Risk of flooding much greater when storm Risk of flooding much greater when storm surge and wave setup are consideredsurge and wave setup are considered

Titus, J.G. and Richman, C. (2001)Titus, J.G. and Richman, C. (2001)Climate Research Climate Research 18: 20518: 205--228228

ElevationElevation

Mean sea level has risen 30 cmMean sea level has risen 30 cm(1 foot) over the last century(1 foot) over the last century

Mea

n se

a le

vel (

mm

)

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

Year

1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2001

30 cm or 1 ftsea level

rise

PSMSL data

Baltimore tide gauge Baltimore tide gauge

Relative sea level rise canRelative sea level rise canlead to salt marsh losslead to salt marsh loss

BlackwaterBlackwater National Wildlife Refuge National Wildlife Refuge (Oct. 2000)(Oct. 2000)

Photo: J. C. StevensonPhoto: J. C. Stevenson

Physical changes in marsh Physical changes in marsh condition accompany marsh losscondition accompany marsh loss

Photo: E.W. KochPhoto: E.W. Koch

Kearney, M.S., et alKearney, M.S., et al (1988).(1988). Geog. Rev.Geog. Rev. 78:78: 205205--220.220.

Substantial marsh loss observed at Substantial marsh loss observed at BlackwaterBlackwater National Wildlife RefugeNational Wildlife Refuge

MarshMarshOpen waterOpen water

UplandUpland

19381938

19901990

Stevenson, J.C. et al (2002) in Fisheries in a Changing Climate,Stevenson, J.C. et al (2002) in Fisheries in a Changing Climate,McGinnMcGinn, N.A. (ed), N.A. (ed)

Marsh health compromised by Marsh health compromised by relative sea level riserelative sea level rise

Kearney, M.S. et al. (Kearney, M.S. et al. (unpubunpub))

Different regions of Chesapeake Different regions of Chesapeake Bay have a different futureBay have a different future

Turning the Tide: Saving the Chesapeake Bay by Tom Horton (1Turning the Tide: Saving the Chesapeake Bay by Tom Horton (1stst Edition)Edition)

Isabel makes landfall Sept 18, 2003Isabel makes landfall Sept 18, 2003Photo: NASA/MODIS

Isabel: surge height and impactIsabel: surge height and impact

19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept18 Sept17 Sept0

1

2He

ight (m

eters r

elative

to ML

LW)

Photo: Monica Salerno Photo: Don Merritt Photo: Don Boesch

Cambridge tide gauge. Data: NOAA /NOS COOPS

AnnapolisAnnapolisHorn PointHorn PointCambridgeCambridge

Large scale effects of Hurricane Isabel Large scale effects of Hurricane Isabel evident from spaceevident from space

After Hurricane IsabelAfter Hurricane Isabel(Sept. 19(Sept. 19--20 2003)20 2003)

Terra

& A

qua

sens

ors,

NAS

A Te

rra &

Aqu

a se

nsor

s, N

ASA

Before Hurricane Isabel Before Hurricane Isabel (July(July--August 2003)August 2003)

Isabel same size and path as 1933 hurricaneIsabel same size and path as 1933 hurricane

Min pressure (" Hg)Min pressure (" Hg)

Max sustained wind speedMax sustained wind speed

Tidal surge in Potomac RiverTidal surge in Potomac River(feet above MLLW)(feet above MLLW)

28.328.3

98 mph98 mph

11.1 '11.1 '

28.328.3

98 mph98 mph

11.3 '11.3 '

19331933hurricanehurricane

HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel

Data courtesy NOAA and Data courtesy NOAA and UniSysUniSys WeatherWeather

Chesapeake Biological Laboratory after the 1933Chesapeake Biological Laboratory after the 1933hurricane. Photo courtesy Calvert Marine Museumhurricane. Photo courtesy Calvert Marine Museum

Temperature and sea levelTemperature and sea levelwill continue to risewill continue to rise

MidMid--AtlanticAtlanticYearYear temperature risetemperature rise

(projected)(projected)

20302030 1.0 1.0 °°C C –– 1.5 1.5 °°CC20952095 2.7 2.7 °°C C –– 5.3 5.3 °°CC

MidMid--AtlanticAtlanticYearYear sea level risesea level rise

(projected)(projected)

20302030 109 mm 109 mm –– 310 mm310 mm20952095 409 mm 409 mm –– 1029 mm1029 mm

Projected future rise in global temperatureProjected future rise in global temperature Projected future rise in global sea levelProjected future rise in global sea level

Data: IPCC and Pennsylvania State UniversityData: IPCC and Pennsylvania State University

Rapid response system for storm Rapid response system for storm surge prediction neededsurge prediction needed

Rapid Response Rapid Response SystemSystem

NASA/GSFCNASA/GSFC

TerraTerra

Direct Direct BroadcastBroadcastReceiving Receiving

StationStation

GES DAACGES DAACNASA/GSFCNASA/GSFC NOAANOAA

University of University of MarylandMaryland

Geography DeptGeography Dept

USDA Forest USDA Forest ServiceService

Remote SensingRemote SensingApplication CenterApplication Center

EDOSEDOS MODISMODISL0 DataL0 Data

Active Fire andActive Fire andCorrected ReflectanceCorrected Reflectancehttp://http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.govrapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov

Cumulative Fire MapsCumulative Fire Mapshttp://http://www.fs.fed.us/eng/rsacwww.fs.fed.us/eng/rsac

Active FireActive FireLocationsLocations Burn Severity MapsBurn Severity Maps

Handcrafted ImageryHandcrafted Imagery

L1B DataL1B Data

October 2001October 2001

Active Fire LocationsActive Fire LocationsSelected ImagerySelected Imagery

Web Fire Maps and Fire Web Fire Maps and Fire Feature ServerFeature Server

http://http://rapidresponse.umd.edurapidresponse.umd.edu

Backup FeedBackup FeedL1B DataL1B Data

Active Fire Active Fire LocationsLocations

GOFC Fire GOFC Fire PartnersPartners

NASA Earth NASA Earth ObservatoryObservatoryhttp://http://earthobservatory.nasa.govearthobservatory.nasa.gov

MODIS Rapid Response Project: DesignMODIS Rapid Response Project: Design

Christopher Justice, Dept of Geography, University of MarylandChristopher Justice, Dept of Geography, University of Maryland

Coastal Data Center could develop Coastal Data Center could develop storm surge prediction capacity storm surge prediction capacity

GIS Interactive wwwUser Interface

INFORMAL DATA

SOURCES

COAST DATA CENTER Data Base

DATA PRE-PROCESSING

ESTABLISHEDDATA

SYSTEMS

CoastDataCenter

Data SourcesData & Information System

DERIVED VARIABLES

MARSH HEALTH MAPS

METADATA

WWWUser Interface

APPLICATIONS

USER CONSULTATION

RESEARCH

Users

Uses Ocean.US IOOS Data Management & Communication System (DMAC) design principles for national and international connectivity

S. Prince, Dept of Geography, University of MarylandS. Prince, Dept of Geography, University of Maryland

ConclusionsConclusions•• Flooding is often associated with Flooding is often associated with

storms and hurricanesstorms and hurricanes•• Sea level is rising inSea level is rising in

Chesapeake BayChesapeake Bay•• Flooding is enhanced with sea level Flooding is enhanced with sea level

rise, storm surge & wave setuprise, storm surge & wave setup•• Salt marshes are affectedSalt marshes are affected

by sea level riseby sea level rise•• Better storm surge predictive Better storm surge predictive

capacity neededcapacity neededM

ean

sea

leve

l (m

m)

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

Year

1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2001

30 cm or 1 ftsea level

rise

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements•• J.C. Stevenson (UMCES HPL)J.C. Stevenson (UMCES HPL)•• Eric Eric VermoteVermote (NASA/Goddard & UMD Geography)(NASA/Goddard & UMD Geography)•• Dan Rice (UMCES HPL)Dan Rice (UMCES HPL)•• Larry Ward (UNH)Larry Ward (UNH)•• Andrew Rogers (UMD Geography)Andrew Rogers (UMD Geography)

Chesapeake Bay Seminar Series

QUESTION TIME

Sea level rise and coastal change:What the last several hundred years and

Hurricane Isabel tell us about future coastal vulnerability in Chesapeake Bay

Michael Kearney(Department of Geography, University of Maryland)

Photo: NASA/MODIS

Hosted by the Integration & Application Network at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

http://ian.umces.edu

integration application network