Chemistry-climate model validation ( CCMVal )
description
Transcript of Chemistry-climate model validation ( CCMVal )
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
Transition of WCRP projects beyond 2013: SPARC legacy and issues
Christian von Savigny (IUP Bremen) on behalf of SPARC
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
• Chemistry-climate model validation (CCMVal)
- Coordination of ongoing contribution of stratosphere-resolving chemistry-
climate models to WMP/UNEP ozone assessment and IPCC ARs
- Quantification of model uncertainties
• Assessment of key uncertainties in stratospheric and upper tropospheric measurements
• Linking various scientific communities:
- measurement and modeling communities
- stratospheric research community and the climate modeling (as in IPCC) community
- synergy between organizations (WCRP, IGBP, …)
SPARC overarching activities to be maintained beyond 2013:
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
• Quantify the interaction between ozone recovery and climate change
• Investigate air quality aspects of the troposphere-stratosphere system- changes in tropospheric chemical composition caused by stratospheric
changes- increasing air traffic?
• Quantify the impact of solar variability (on all time scales) on climate- Dynamical and chemical response of middle atmosphere- Improve understanding of solar cycle and QBO
• Foster stratospheric science in climate mitigation and adaptation
• Elucidate the role of polar regions in global climate
• Quantify effects of future stratospheric change on the global carbon cycle - Stratospheric changes will affect southern annual mode, effect on CO2 uptake
• Critically asses Geoengineering- Thourough assessment of chemical effects of SO2 injected into stratosphere
Key science questions beyond 2013
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
Key aspects for model improvement
• Improve climate models via data assimilation - improve gravity wave drag parameterizations
• Improve climate models via use of mesoscale/cloud-resolving models
- Focus on TTL (tropical tropopause layer)
• Quantify the impact of vertical domain and resolution in the middle atmosphere in climate modelling
- Do limited vertical resolution and vertical range compromise climate predictability?
• Improve decadal stratospheric ozone predictability
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
Adapted from
Steinbrecht et al., IJR
S [2009]
Key observational issues
Continuity of stratospheric ozone profile satellite record in jeopardy
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010Courtesy of J.-C. Lambert (BIRA-IASB)Updated: September 2009
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
Key observational issues
Figure courtesy of D. Fussen [2010]
Number of space experiments
WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010
• No scheduled European atmospheric profiler after Envisat (operational until 2013/2014 with 3 limb sensors)
• U.S. missions: OMPS-Limb on NPP (launch 2011), but no OMPS limb sounder on the following NPOESS satellites
• To our best knowledge there is no other scheduled and funded limb mission
• Possible solutions:- ALTIUS, a Belgian mission (PI Didier Fussen, BIRA) )- PREMIER, an Earth Explorer candidate mission (launch 2016- CASS, a mission currently discussed by CSA and NASA- SAGE III on ISS (no polar coverage)
• SPARC contributed to the CEOS ACC recommendation for a gap-filling mission
• Monitoring the evolution of O3 profiles (and related chemical species) during the ozone recovery phase is of key importance
Key observational issues