CHEMICAL CLIMATOLOGY STUDIES:CO2, CH4, SO2, PM2.5, SO4, …

• Observed Changes in Greenhouse Gases• Maryland Healthy Air Act and Observed

Changes in Air Quality

Konstantin K. Vinnikov & Russell R. Dickerson (AOSC/UMD),Nickolay A. Krotkov (GSFC/NASA) , ...

MDE/UMD Quarterly Meeting, November 12, 2013

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1995-2012 TREND

19.46 ppm/10yr

19.31 ppm/10yr

19.68 ppm/10yr

19.57 ppm/10yr

19.07 ppm/10yr

19.12 ppm/10yr

18.78 ppm/10yr

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SOUTH POLE, ANTARCTICA.89.98oS, 24.80oW, 2810m Data are considered “BACKGROUND”.Data provided by:Kirk Thoning, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA

1995-2012 TREND=18.78 ppm/10yr

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THESE USA CO2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE

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MEAN TREND1995-2012

14.06 ppm/10yr

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GLOBAL MONITORING OF CH4 BY NOAA: HOURLY RECORDS

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THESE ARE FIVE THE LONGEST HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF THEM ARE VALID. ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE VERY SHORT.

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Conclusion:

•NOAA monitors global changes of main greenhouse gases.

•Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane near land surface display strong diurnal and seasonal cycles. Monitoring of these gases organized by NOAA is not sufficient to control regional sources and sinks of these gases.

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MARYLAND, HOURLY TIME SERIES OF SO2 EMISSION

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TREND COMPONENTS OF ENERGY GENERATED AND SO2 EMITTED

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CHANGE OF SURFACE SO2 IN RESPONSE TO HEALTHY AIR ACT.

TIME SERIES OF HOURLY SO2 CONCENTRATION OBSERVED AT MD/DC AQS

Observed AQS data display noticeable decrease of SO2 concentrations after 2010.

Let us compare seasonal/ diurnal patterns of SO2 for two periods 2006-2008 and 2010-2012, before and after Healthy Air Act X-time.

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SEASONAL/DIURNAL VARIATIONS SO2 OBSERVED AT THREE MD AQS BEFORE (2006-08) AND AFTER (2010-12) MARYLAND HEALTHY AIR ACT X-TIME

Are these changes really caused by the Healthy Air Act? Are they caused by change power plants SO2 emissions in MD?

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SATELLITE (OMI) OBSERVED DECREASE OF COLUMN MEAN SO2 CONTENT AT MARYLAND BEFORE AND AFTER 2010

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LAG-CORRELATION FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM COMPONENT IN TEMPORAL VARIATIONS SO2 CONCENTRATIONS AND DECAY TIMES OF SO2 ANOMALIES

R(τ) - is empirical estimate of Lag-correlation function for different Lags, τ. R(τ) ≈ exp(-|τ|/To) - is approximation of Lag-correlation function.To – Decay Time - is estimated from least square condition: Σ(ln(R(τ))-|τ|/To)2=min.

To – Estimated Decay Time (or - Life Time of temporal perturbations, or – Scale of temporal variability) for our variables is equal to about few hours.

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Seasonal-Diurnal Cycles of PM2.5 Particles (μg/m3) during 2010-2012

Estimates of R(τ) - Lag-Correlation Functions of PM2.5

η – fraction of white noiseΤ - LagT - Decay time, or Scale

.)1()0(

;1)0(/||eR

RT

MEAN, μg/m3

STD, μg/m3

White Noise, %

QNTL(95%) μg/m3

QNTL(99%) μg/m3

QNTL(99.9%) μg/m3

SCALE T, hour

Rockville 11.1 6.7 15 25 34 46 19

Beltsville 11.9 8.0 29* 25 34 48 13*Oldtown 12.8 7.6 12 27 37 53 18Fairhill 10.9 7.1 8 26 35 46 18Hagerstown 11.7 7.6 14 27 37 50 20

* means pure approximation

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1. Diurnal Cycle in PM2.5 is weak and can be neglected.

2. Decay Time of PM2.5 anomalies is 18-20 hr which is ~4 times larger compared to SO2. This means that changes in PM2.5 can be partly imported to MD from neighboring States.

3. Five MD and one DC stations display significant systematic decrease observed PM2.5 concentration in 2010-12 compared to 2006-08. This decrease is the largest during the warm months of a year.

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Decrease of SULFATE (SO4) in atmospheric aerosol PM2.5 observed in MD

Frostburg, MD and Washington, DC stations monitor content of Sulfate in aerosol particles smaller than 2.5 μm.

Beltsville, MD and Blackwater NWR, MD observed total amount of Sulfate in atmospheric aerosol particles using Teflon and Nylon filters.

We see analogous decrease of Sulfate concentration from 2006-08 to 2010-12 in data of both pairs of these stations.

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TEMPORAL VARIATION OF MD SURFACE OBSERVED OPTICAL DEPTH tau500

AERONET Project Observed decrease of Atmospheric Optical Depth tau500 in Maryland from 2006-8 to 2010-12 is consistent with observed decrease of surface concentration of PM2.5 particles.

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ttt

CONCLUSIONS:

By comparing mean values of variables for 2006-08 (before MD HAA) and for 2010-12 (three year after MD HAA) we found the following:

1. Significant decrease of MD Power Plants SO2 Emission agreement w CEMs.2. Tremendous decrease of SO2 concentration observed at MD AQS stations.3. Small decrease in surface concentration of PM2.5 particles in MD. 4. Consistent Decrease of Optical Depth of Atmospheric Air tau500.

We estimated Decay Time of anomalies of observed variables and found:

1. Decay Time of fluctuations of Electric Energy Generated and SO2 emitted by all Power Plants of MD together is in range 2-3 days.

2. Decay Time of SO2 anomalies at surface stations is much smaller and is in range 2-8 hours depending on season and daytime.

3. Decay Time of anomalies of PM2.5 aerosol particles is 18-20 hours.

Very short Life Time of SO2 in atmosphere permit us to attribute the most of the “tremendous decrease of SO2 concentration observed in MD” after 2010 to the Healthy Air Act.

Longer Life Time of atmospheric aerosols means that the observed decrease in PM2.5, Sulfate, and Atmospheric Optical Depth in MD can be PARTLY imported from the neighboring States.

Available but limited Medical Statistical reports show simultaneous decrease of Asthma Hospitalization and Cardiovascular mortality in MD and neighboring States. Health effects of MD Healthy Air Act still should be assessed.