Charts book egx30 index rebalance - august 01, 2012

JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE

CHARTS BOOK

CHARTS BOOK

By: Ramy Rashad, CMT

EGX30 Index Rebalance

6 IN & 6 OUT


CHARTS BOOK Wednesday, August 01, 2012

INDEX :

Name of Securities (IN) Code Page

Oriental Weavers Carpet Co. ORWE.CA 4

Egyptian Financial & Industrial EFIC.CA 5

Modern Waterproofing Co. WATP.CA 6

El Kahera For Housing & Dev. ELKA.CA 7

Sixth Of October Dev. & Inv. OCDI.CA 8

Raya Holding Co. RAYA.CA 9

2 CHARTS BOOK

Name of Securities (OUT) Code Page

El Saeed Contracting UEGC.CA 10

Universal Co. For Packaging Materials UNIP.CA 11

The General Co. For Ceramic & Porcelain PRCL.CA 12

Electro Cable Egypt Co. ELEC.CA 13

GMC Group For Industrial Commercial GMCI.CA 14



3

BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: 4,862Pt. )

TREND : short and medium term trends are pointing up

(Bullish breakout, with above average activity, over both a falling chan-

nel and a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, 50-day EMA

is doing a great job as a moving support line, the index is over the

Ichimoku Cloud (not shown) and Double Top P&F signal is about

to materialize. MOMENTUM : Very favorable readings (RSI is breaking out from its own triangle, MACD is over zero and

OBV is about to signal a major trend alteration

EGX30 RIC: .EGX30

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK

TRADING TECH-

NIQUE: Short-Term traders

(Days) & Medium-term

Traders (Weeks) are advised to Hold/Buy a

breakout over 4,900

First Second

Support 4,800 4,700 / 4,750

Resistance 4,900 5,000

Stop loss 4,685 4,560

Target 5,150 / 5,450 5,800



4

BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP19.43 )

TREND: Medium-term trend is Up again ( a decisive

breakout over a H&S classic bottom pattern with such a thrust in

trading volume signals a sure-fire Buy signal - P&F Double Top

Buy signal has been materialized (not shown))

MOMENTUM: Similar breakout in RSI and OBV (Momentum indicators agree on the new up-thrust move)

ORIENTAL WEAVERS CARPET CO. RIC: ORWE.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK

TRADING TECHNIQUE: Short-Term traders (Days)

& Medium-term Traders

(Weeks) are advised to BUY /

BUY on a dip to the breakout

level.

A sure-fire 10% up-side poten-

tial

You will run the “Liquidity

Risk”

First Second

Support 18.90 18.5

Resistance 22.0 -

Stop loss 18.40 -

Target 22.0 -



5


TREND: Confluence of resistances at current levels; (The security faces currently a multiple degree of moving resistance

lines and the 200-day EMA, price is over the Ichimoku Cloud (not

shown) which is bullish and the question you must ask now is;

Make or Break? MOMENTUM: OBV says it will break

the 10.85 and MACD says may be (The Volume indicator,

OBV, has cleared its prior swing high and as this indicator always

precedes prices, we can say that the security may penetrate the 11.0

level soon, MACD has bounced off the zero line which is bullish.

EGYPTIAN FINANCIAL & INDUSTRIAL RIC: EFIC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


are advised to Buy. Con-

servative Short-Term trad-

ers & Medium-term Trad-

ers (Weeks) are advised to

Buy a decisive up-breakout

over 10.85

First Second

Support 10.20 10.0

Resistance 10.5 10.85

Stop loss 10.0 -

Target 12.0 13.0



6


TREND: The trend still Bearish but Repeated pattern

is taking place; Watch out for a reversal in a medium-

term trend (The security is below Ichimoku Cloud, which is

bearish, but a possible Double Bottom pattern is taking place, vol-

ume is increasing on the second up-leg and taking out a declining

red trend line, 50-day EMA and a horizontal green trend line (All

around 2.10 / 2.25) is all what we need for a nearly 20% upside po-

tential. MOMENTUM: RSI is over the 50-line again

(but we need more positive signals from MACD and OBV)

MODERN WATERPROOFING CO. RIC: WATP.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


are advised to Buy only a de-

cisive breakout over 2.08.

Medium-term Traders

(Weeks) are advised to Buy

only a decisive breakout over

2.27

First Second

Support 2.0 1.95

Resistance 2.08 2.18 / 2.27

Stop loss 1.90 1.82

Target 2.27 2.5 / 2.70



7


TREND: Medium-term trend still in a balance state,

while short-term one is under a stress test (The security

faces a juncture zone @ 4.35 / 4.4 and only a decisive up-breakout

over this range, with explosion in trading activity, would alter the

short-term look)

MOMENTUM: MACD faces a resistance (we have

nearly the same message from MACD; the security still weak and,

so far, we have no early signals that a breakout will take place.)

EL KAHERA FOR HOUSING & DEV. RIC: ELKA.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK



(Weeks) are advised to Hold,

Buy a breakout over the first

resistance zone (provided,

Volume is high and MACD is

over the zero), and Cut Loss-

es below 4.15

First Second

Support 4.20 / 4.25 4.15

Resistance 4.35 / 4.40 4.5 / 4.7

Stop loss 4.15 -

Target 4.70 5.0



8


TREND: A medium-term and a short-term sideway

moves are easily seen with naked eyes (Just trade a range

and Buy / Sell breakouts.)

MOMENTUM: MACD @ support (RSI over the 50-line

again and has successfully reversed the down trend, but the OBV is

bearish with series of lower highs, however, we have an early sig-

nal that clearing the first resistance level may take place.)

SIXTH OF OCTOBER DEV. & INV. RIC: OCDI.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


are advised to Buy a breakout

over 16.85, take profits near

18.60 and then Buy a

breakout over later level. Cut

losses below 15.7. Medium-

term Traders (Weeks) are

advised to Buy a breakout

over 18.60. Take profits near

First Second

Support 15.70 13.0


Stop loss 15.6 12.9

Target 18.5 24.0



9


TREND: The trend is down after a decisive breakout

below the classic H&S topping pattern (The security is

below the Ichimoku Cloud (not shown), which is bearish, no Buy

signal in the P&F H/L chart and as long as the security fail to deci-

sively penetrate the second resistance range, you shouldn't think

about any buying opportunity in the security.) MOMENTUM: RSI short-term positive divergence

signal has been materialized (but we still need to see a

breakout over both the 50-line and a declining trend line.)

RAYA HOLDING CO. RIC: RAYA.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


are advised to Sell a breakout

below the 4.28 level. In case,

the security successfully pen-

etrated, all traders, especially,

the Long-term traders

(Months) are advised to Buy

a decisive breakout over a

second resistance range.

First Second

Support 4.28 4.03

Resistance 4.40 / 4.48 4.60 / 4.70

Stop loss 4.25 -

Target - -



10


TREND: The medium-term trend is clearly down (and the short-term one is taking the lateral shape after failing to

attain the declining resistance line of the falling channel. As a re-

sult, different trading techniques should be used. A decisive up-

breakout, with heavy volume, over 1.15 may open the gate for an-

other test to the second resistance level.

MOMENTUM: MACD found support @ the zero

line (which is bullish, so far)

EL SAEED CONTRACTING RIC: UEGC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


Are advised to trade a range,

Buy a breakout over 1.15

and take profits near the se-

cond resistance zone. Medi-

um-term Traders (Weeks) are advised to Sell rallies

First Second

Support 1.12 1.08

Resistance 1.15 1.20 / 1.25

Stop loss 1.07 -

Target - -



11


TREND: Testing the low with nearly no activity (is a

major bullish signal, keeping in mind the structure of the possible

Bottom formation. When you see a significant pick up in trading

activity with a breakout over 8.4 / 8.5, you need to call your broker

and tell him to Buy in.). Don’t be aggressive here, just wait for a

decisive up-breakout to materialize. Conservative long-term traders

should wait for a decisive up-breakout over 10.0.

MOMENTUM: RSI is over 50 and rising, MACD is

over zero and rising

UNIVERSAL CO FOR PACKAGING MATERIALS RIC: UNIP.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


Are advised to Buy on a dip

and/or Buy a breakout over

8.40 / 8.50. Medium-term

Traders (Weeks) are advised

to Buy a breakout over 8.4 /

8.5. All traders are advised to

Buy a breakout over 10.0.

First Second

Support 7.5 / 7.60 7.3


Stop loss 7.5 7.3

Target 10 15



12


TREND: The medium-term trend is up again (Taking

out the early July swing high @ 4.44, with multiple closes over it

and with explosion in trading activity, signals a beginning of a new

up-trend.)

MOMENTUM: New high in MACD & Important

resistance in RSI (indicate that a consolidation near the

breakout range (4.25 / 4.45) may continue for some time before a

serious up-thrust move.)

THE GENERAL CO. FOR CERAMIC & PORCELAIN RIC: PRCL.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK



(Weeks) are advised to Buy a

pull back move to the

breakout range (4.25/4.45)

and/or Buy a breakout over

4.80. Hide in cash below the

rising green trend line.

First Second

Support 4.45 4.25

Resistance 4.75 / 4.80 5.0

Stop loss 4.20 -

Target 5.0 / 5.30 6.0



13


TREND: Down to sideway as seen via the weekly

chart. Long-term trend is bearish as seen via the

Ichimoku Cloud (price and lagging line is below the

Cloud)

MOMENTUM: Long-term momentum readings is

below the mid-points and accelerating

ELECTRO CABLE EGYPT CO. RIC: ELEC.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK

TRADING TECHNIQUE: All traders are advised to

Sell Rallies.

A decisive up-breakout over

the first resistance level

should triggers your Buy stop.

First Second

Support 0.73 / 0.74 -


Stop loss 0.68 -

Target - -



14


TREND: The security tries to bottom out ( a decisive up

-breakout over 2.50/ 2.60 is a must before jumping to bullish con-

clusion. - Long-term Ichimoku Cloud is still very bearish)

MOMENTUM: Bullish up-breakout over symmet-

rical triangle in both the Price Momentum RSI & the

Volume Momentum OBV (This indicates that price may do

the same in the near future.)

GMC GROUP FOR INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL RIC: GMCI.CA

SIGNIFICANT LEVELS:

CHARTS BOOK


are advised to Buy dips

Medium-term Traders

(Weeks) are advised to Buy a

decisive breakout over 2.62

First Second

Support 2.47 / 2.50 2.35


Stop loss 2.40 -

Target 3.5 -

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15 CHARTS BOOK

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Charts book egx30 index rebalance - august 01, 2012

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