SEARCH Understanding Change Panel:Priority Needs and Implementation Status

Matt BermanJohn WalshNov. 5, 2007

Charge to panel:

Plan the data analysis, modeling, and synthesis activities to understand the nature and causes of change, and to reduce uncertainty of projections of future change.

History of SEARCH Understanding Change program planning

1. Started with Arctic Oscillation HypothesisAO shifted, and the Arctic didn’t.

2. “Is Arctic moving to a new state” hypothesis?

Answering whether Arctic has moved to a new state no longer

urgent before science program really started.• Arctic environment is changing faster than science can

mobilize to understand and predict it, much less plan for the consequences.

• Policy environment shifting – from “is it happening?” to “what to do about it?”

Need for Understanding Activities

• On a national and global scale: need science to support well-informed mitigation policy, i.e.,– How soon will ____ happen?– Can we afford to wait 20 years to begin deep cuts in greenhouse

gas emissions?

• On a local and regional scale: need science to support well-informed adaptation policy, i.e.,– Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystem management– Arctic infrastructure and settlement policy

Synthesis: Making SEARCH Relevant to U.S. and Global Climate Policy

• Quantify feedbacks to global climate system

• Locate critical thresholds

• Measure rates and trajectory of change

greenhouse effect with feedbacks

Arctic temperature

CO2 forcing

base greenhouse

effect

CO2, CH4 feedback from thermokarst,

fires

albedo feedback from snow, ice,

vegetation

Greenland ice sheet melts

NA thermohaline circulation shuts down

• 2000

• 2020

Matt Berman SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05

Human and Natural Systems Linked Across Local and Global Scales

Regime shifts in climate and the environment, unprecedented in

the historical and recent geological record

Sweeping impacts of change on Northern populations and

cultures

Expansion of global geopolitical and economic interests into the

North

Increasing interdependence between the Arctic region and

global processes

Hajo Eicken SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05

What are some of the high-priority needs for increased understanding

Based on:

• Urgency of need for increased understanding?• Readiness for progress by coordination of ongoing

activities?

• Fit to SEARCH program objectives and observations?

Sea ice

What is driving the ongoing retreat?

What is driving the ongoing sea ice retreat?

Projects underway

ARCSS SASS: Serreze (Heat budget analysis) Perovich (Solar radiation disposition)

SEARCH AON: Proshutinsky, Morison, Rigor, Eicken, Lee, Schlosser, Stanton, Toole, Steele Woodgate, others

NOAA: Rhines/Erickson, Richter-Menge

IARC: Polyakov

Other IPY projects

Greenland ice sheet

How is the Greenland ice sheet changing and why?

How is the Greenland ice sheet changing and why?

Projects underway

ARCSS SASS: Fahnestock

NASA: Bales, Bromwich, Cassano, Wu, Bindschadler, Krabill

NSF CReSIS (Gogenini)

Various other IPY projects

Arctic marine ecosystems

How are they changing and why?

How are Arctic marine ecosystems changing and why?

Projects underway

ARCSS SASS: Ashjian, Urban

ARCSS SBI, SNACS: Ashjian, Bates

BEST (Bering focus): Hunt, various other projects

NOAA Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic; Grebmeier

AYK Sustainable Salmon Initiative: (western Alaska salmon)

NPRB BSIERP: Trites (Bering patch dynamics study)

Feedbacks of change

• How are clouds affecting Arctic climate change?

• How will future Arctic ecosystem changes affect methane and CO2 releases?

Feedbacks of change: how are clouds affecting Arctic change?

Projects underway

SEARCH UCP: Persson

NSF SASS: Francis

NOAA: Ket/Uttal/Stone

NASA:

Feedbacks of change: how will future Arctic ecosystem changes affect methane and CO2

releases?

Projects underway

ARCSS SNACS: Rhew

NOAA: Swmiletov

Human and social dimensions

• What are likely consequences for humans of rapid environmental change (vulnerability analyses)?

• How are and will arctic communities adapt to directional environmental change?

• How will human adaptations to environmental change affect ecosystems to cause further ecological changes?

Human and social dimensions

• What are likely consequences for humans of rapid environmental change (vulnerability analyses)?

Lammers, Ogilvie (SASS); Ashjian (SNACS)

• How are and will arctic communities adapt to directional environmental change?

John (HBest); other Arctic Social Science programs, i.e., Huskey

• How will human adaptations to environmental change affect ecosystems to cause further ecological changes?

Kofinas (SASS), McGovern (IPY)

SEARCH Integration Projects

NSF: Chapin, Bromwich (Arctic System Reanalysis),

Proshutinsinsky/Zhang/Pantaleev (ocean/ice data assimilation)

NOAA: Overland, Intrieri, Fetterer; Wang (data assimilation)