Chapter_7_Housing (Real Estate Prices)

7/27/2019 Chapter_7_Housing (Real Estate Prices)

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Roadmap to the Future

20DRAFT November 2012Chapter 7 Housing

Chapter 7


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www.dickinsonplan.com draft

202

Housing is a central topic of the comprehensive plan. The city is experiencing a high demand for housing that is forecasted

to continue for approximately another 10 years. The supply of housing units has not been able to keep up with demand,

resulting is significant difficulties for new residents in obtaining housing and sharp increases in the housing cost.

This chapter will provide a detailed description of existing housing characteristics and identify specific housing issues.

Responses to community survey questions about housing supplement housing data from various sources. The information

from all sources was used to develop policies to address specific housing issues. Finally, housing forecasts for the planning

period will be provided. The future demand for housing in the city is extraordinarily high largely due to the strong forecasted

job growth attributed to continued energy development in western North Dakota. Based on forecast, the city has the

potential of increasing its current stock of housing by 80 percent over the next 10 years. With such a strong growth rate,

existing housing issues will be exacerbated without proactive housing policies.

NUMBER AND TYPE OF HOUSING UNITS

Table 7-1 shows the total number of housing units recorded in the 2000 and 2010 US Censuses for Dickinson, Stark

County and North Dakota. During the 10-year period, 832 housing units were added in the city, presenting an 11.8

percent increase.

Table 7-1: Total Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2000-2010

2000 2010 Number Change Percent Change

Dickinson 7,033 7,865 832 11.8%

Stark County 9,722 10,735 1,013 10.4%

North Dakota 289,677 317,498 27,821 9.6%

SOURCE: 2000 AND 2010 US CENSUS

Table 7-2 shows the change in the type of residential structures between 2000 and 2010. During the decade, the city

experienced nearly a 75 percent increase in the number of single family attached structures (duplexes and townhomes). Thecity also experienced significant increases in apartment buildings with more than 20 units and mobile homes.

Table 7-2: Number of Dwelling Units per Structure, City of Dickinson, 2000 - 2010

Type of Residential Structure(Units per Structure)

2000 2010 2000-2010

1-unit, detached 4,382 62.4% 4,817 61.4% 9.9%

1-unit, attached 286 4.1% 500 6.4% 74.8%

2 units 239 3.4% 260 3.3% 8.8%

3 or more units 1,884 26.8% 1,993 24.6% 5.8%

20 or more units 666 9.5% 795 10.1% 19.4%

Mobile Home 230 3.3% 334 4.3% 45.2%

Total housing units 7,021 100% 7,844 100% 10.9%

SOURCE: US CENSUS

Chapter 7 Housing


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The data contained in Table 7-2 only includes the housing units built prior to April 2010 when the US Census was conducted

and does not include the sharp increase in residential building permits issued by the City after the census. Table 7-3 and

Figure 7-1 show the permitting activity in the city since 2008, the year energy development in western North Dakota began

to significantly increase. The total number of building permits for all construction types significantly increased in 2010 and

rate of growth in building permits has increased in each subsequent year. The majority of permits issued since 2008 arefor various types of single family housing units. Unofficial permit data from the City planner indicates approximately 900

permits have been issued in the first nine months of 2012 and a total of 1,500 permits are expected to be issued by year

end. A majority of the permits expected to be issued in 2012 will be for multi-family housing units.

Table 7-3: Building Permits Issued, City of Dickinson, 2008-2012 (Jan Aug)

2008 2009 2010 20112012

(January -August)

Unit Type#

%change

#%

change#

%change

#%

change#

%change

Single Family 82 -- 78 -4.9% 141 80.8% 137 -2.8% 418 205.1%

Multi Family 17 -- 14 -- 70 400.0% 74 5.7% 46 -37.8%

Commercial 34 -- 25 -26.5% 41 64.0% 41 0.0 30 -26.8%

Total 133 -- 117 -12.0% 252 115.4% 252 0.0 494 96.0%

Total Housing 99 -- 92 -7.1% 211 129.3% 211 0.0 464 119.9%

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS

Figure 7-1: Building Permits Issued, City of Dickinson, 2008-2012 (Jan Aug)

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS


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204 Chapter 7 Housing

Strategy: Maintain a ratio of approximately 66/33 for single-family detached/attached homes and multifamily

unit structures, which will provide all residents with housing options to meet lifestyle and cost-related needs.

Household Characteristics

Table 7-4 shows the household characteristics for the city, Stark County and North Dakota in 2010. The most significantobservation is the high percentage of non-family households (unrelated persons living together) in the city compared to

Stark County and North Dakota. With the exception of unmarried couples, non-family households are predominantly

renters. Given the relatively high percentage of non-family households, the City should encourage development of rental

housing to meet these households housing needs.

Table 7-4: Household Characteristics, Dickinson and North Dakota, 2010

Household Characteristics Dickinson Stark County North Dakota

Total Households 7,521 6,860 181,192

Average Household Size 2.25 2.31 2.30

Family Households 4,308 5,088 170,916

Percent of Total Households 57.3% 74.2% 60.8%

Average Family Size 2.89 2.90 2.91

Non-Family Households 3,213 1,772 110,276

Percent of Total Households 42.7% 25.8% 34.6%

SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2010 CENSUS

Housing Tenure

Housing tenure is a term used to describe whether a housing unit is owned or rented. Table 7-5 shows the housing tenure

profile in 2000 and 2010 for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. Compared to Stark County and the state, the

city has a greater percentage of occupied housing units that are rented. Between 2000 and 2010, the citys increase

in renter occupied units exceeded the increase in owner occupied units. During the decade the city experienced a 23.3

percent increase in renter occupied units, compared to a 13.3 percent increase for the state. The significant increase in

renter occupied units in the city suggest that new residents are either choosing rental housing and/or fewer new residents

are able to afford home ownership.


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Table 7-5: Housing Tenure of Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2000-2010

Dickinson Stark County North Dakota

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010

Total Occupied Units 6,517 7,517 8,932 10,085 257,152 281,192Owner Occupied Units 4,169 4,625 6,276 6,860 171,299 183,943

Percent of Total 64.0% 61.5% 70.3% 68.0% 66.6% 65.4%

Renter Occupied Units 2,348 2,896 2,656 3,225 85,853 97,249

Percent of Total 36.0% 38.5% 29.7% 32.0% 33.4% 34.6%

Owner Occupied 2000-2010Number Change

456 584 24,040

Owner Occupied 2000-2010Percent Change

10.9% 9.3% 14.0%

Renter Occupied 2000-2010 NumberChange

548 569 11,396

Renter Occupied 2000-2010Percent Change

23.3% 21.4% 13.3%

SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2000 AND 2010 CENSUS

Table 7-6 provides data on the population residing in owner occupied and renter occupied housing units in 2010 for

Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. The data for the city is similar to that of Stark County and North Dakota and

are consistent with the data provided in Table 7-5. Approximately two-thirds of the city population resided in an owner

occupied unit and one-third resided in a rental housing unit. It is interesting to note 27.3 percent of renters lived alone.

Assuming the percentage remains relatively constant moving forward, the City and developers of apartments should make

efforts to meet the demand by constructing a sufficient number of studio or one-bedroom apartments.

Table 7-6: Housing Tenure and Population, City of Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota

Household Population by Housing Tenure Dickinson Stark County North Dakota

Population in Owner-Occupied Units 11,491 17,154 457,030

Percent of Total Population in Households in OccupiedUnits

67.8% 78.8% 70.6%

Average Household Size in Owner-Occupied Units2.48 2.50 2.48

Owner-Occupied Unit, Persons Living Alone 1,035 1,478 41,156

Percent of Population in Owner-Occupied Units 9.0% 8.6% 9.1%

Population in Renter-Occupied Units 5,462 6,136 190,505

Percent of Total Population in Households in OccupiedUnits

32.2% 28.2% 29.4%

Average Household Size in Renter-Occupied Units 1.89 1.90 1.96

Renter-Occupied Unit, Persons Living Alone 1,491 1,639 47,407

Percent of Population in Renter-Occupied Units 27.3% 26.7% 24.9%

SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2010 CENSUS


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Community Survey 1 asked respondents to indicate how much attention should be devoted to various city issues. Two

issues were related to housing availability. Two-thirds of respondents indicated much attention should be devoted to the

availability of homes to purchase and 82 percent of the respondents indicated much attention should be devoted to the

availability of rental housing. The results of the community survey suggest there is a strong unmet demand for both owner

and renter occupied housing units.Housing Costs

Housing costs in the city are presented both in terms of the value of owner and renter occupied housing units. Much of the

data presented in this section is from 2010 American Community Survey and given the significant housing shortage in the

city that has persisted since 2010, data likely underestimate current housing costs.

Value of Owner Occupied Housing Units

Table 7-7 shows the median value of owner occupied housing units in 2010 for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota.

Based on US Census data, the median value of an owner occupied housing unit was 6 percent higher than the states

median value in 2010. The data prepared by the North Dakota Housing Financing Agency (see Figure 7-2) suggests

the 2010 Census under estimates the median values of owner occupied housing units in the city. It is important to notethe housing value data in the census is based on the homeowners view of the value of their property. In April 2010, city

homeowners may have fully recognized the strength of the housing market.

Table 7-7: Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2010


Median Value $118,000 $115,300 $111,300

SOURCE: 2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast report compiled housing value data for

eight regions in the state. Dickinson was designated in the Roosevelt-Custer Region VIII that included the following counties:Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dune, Golden Valley, Hettinger, Slope and Stark Counties. Table 7-8 provides a profile of the

value of owner occupied housing units in 2010 for the city and Region VIII. Compared to Region VIII, the significantly fewer

owner occupied housing with values under $90,000 and a greater percentage of homes valued between $125,000 and

$200,000.


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Table 7-8: Value of all Owner Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson and Region VIII, 2010

Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value Dickinson Region VIII

Total 4,805 11,983

Less than $40,000Number 302 1,182

Percent of Total 9.3% 15.7%

$40,000 to $69,999

Number 447 2,000


$70,000 to $89,999

Number 592 1,607


$90,000 to $124,000

Number 1,305 2,225


$125,000 to $199,000

Number 1,487 2,648


$200,000 or More

Number 672 1,621


SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST


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Figure 7-2: Median Home Prices by City in North Dakota

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY AND NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS

*Note Data is still being compiled for communities for year 2005, 2007 and 2011

The increased demand for housing has had a tremendous effect on housing sale prices. As shown in Table 7-9 and Figure

7-3, the average sale price for a home increased from $151,045 in 2009 to $194,651 in 2011, representing nearly

a 30 percent increase in three years. The median sale price increased from $144,450 in 2009 to $183,950 in 2011,

representing more than a 27 percent increase in three years.

It is important to note the data provided in Table 7-9, Figure 7-2 and Figure 7-3 represent only homes listed on the Multiple

Listing Service (MLS) and do not include exclusive listings or sale by owner properties. When comparing average versus

median sale prices, it is important to remember very high or very low homes sales can skew the average price up or down.

As such, median sale prices tend to reflect a more statistically accurate measurement of the home values.

The average sold price or list price ratio shows the difference between the listed price for a home and the actual selling

price. A value of 100 percent means that a home sold for the listed price. As can be seen from the data, homes sold slightly

less than the listed price, although the gap has minimized over the past three years from 96.1 percent in 2009 to 98.5

percent in 2011.

$65,000

$70,444

$97,000

$69,350

$125,000

$132,000

$93,000

$116,500

$117,000

$94,500

$73,800

$103,750

$80,000

$131,000

$139,707

$110,000

$139,900

$129,900

$129,950

$81,000

$42,750

$139,900

$82,250

$133,900

$138,000

$144,450

$143,600

$137,000

$185,000

$85,900

$160,000

$169,900

$89,900

$172,000

$161,200

$183,950

$162,500

$160,000

$0 $40,000 $80,000 $120,000 $160,000 $200,000

Williston

Wahpeton-Breckenridge

Watford City

Minot

Jamestown

Grand Forks

Fargo-Moorhead

Dickinson

Bismarck-Mandan

North Dakota

2011 2009 2007 2005


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Table 7-9: Dickinson Home Sale Prices 2009-2011

YearAverage

Sale PricePrice

IncreasePercentChange

Median Sale PricePrice

IncreasePercentChange

Average Sold Price/ListPrice Ratio

2009 $151,045 - - $144,450 - - 96.1%2010 $173,992 $22,947 15.2 $165,000 $20,550 14.2 97.3%

2011 $194,651 $20,659 11.9 $183,950 $18,950 11.5 98.5%

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS

Figure 7-3: Average Sale versus Median Sale Home Price, City of Dickinson

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS

Gross Rent

Gross rent is defined as the amount of the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities (electricity, gas,

and water and sewer) and fuels (oil, coal, kerosene, wood, etc.) if these are paid for by the renter (or paid for the renter

by someone else). Gross rent is intended to eliminate differentials which result from varying practices with respect to the

inclusion of utilities and fuels as part of the rental payment.

Table 7-10 shows the 2010 median gross rent of renter occupied units paying cash (as opposed to in-kind payments) for

Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. Based on data from the 2010 American Community Survey, the 2010 median

gross rent in the city is only five percent greater than that of the state.


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Table 7-10: Median Monthly Rent of Renter Occupied Housing Units Paying Cash Rent, Dickinson, Stark Countyand North Dakota, 2010


Median Gross Rent $584 $547 $555

SOURCE: 2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Table 7-11 provides gross rent data presented in ranges of gross rent for Dickinson and Region VIII. Generally, compared

to Region VIII, the city has relatively fewer rental units with monthly rents less than $450 and relatively greater rental units

with monthly rents more than $450.

Table 7-11: Median Gross Monthly Rent of Renter Occupied Housing Units Paying Cash Rent, Dickinson andRegion VIII, 2010

Renter Units Dickinson Region VII

Total 2,311 3,408

Less than $250Number 181 357


$250 to $349

Number 198 378


$350 to $449

Number 215 523


$450 to $549

Number 434 568


$550 to $749

Number 766 965


$750 or More

Number 517 617


SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST

Housing Affordability

As noted above, the supply of housing in the city has not kept up with the strong demand for housing, resulting in recent

sharp increases for housing. Nearly three-quarters of respondents to Community Survey 1 felt much attention should be

devoted to the cost of purchasing a home and more than 82 percent responded that much attention should be devoted

to the cost of housing rent. Using the community survey results, input from several public meetings and conversations with

City officials and community stakeholders, it is reasonable to conclude the housing cost is a major issue for the entire

community.


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Persons with modest wages or fixed incomes are struggling to pay escalating housing costs. Employers are having difficulties

retaining and recruiting workers due to the shortage and high cost of housing. Some residents have chosen to move from

the city in search of more affordable housing elsewhere. However, the rising home prices are benefiting residents that

bought before the significant increase in home values and the increase has given residents increased equity in their homes.

The equity can then be used to help pay for needed improvements to homes or can be used for other financial purposes.

Affordable housing is a function of the supply of low-cost housing and the income levels of households/individuals.

Housing affordability is generally defined by how much of a households income is devoted to housing costs (mortgage/

rent plus utilities). For individual households, housing is considered affordable when no more than 30 percent of household

income is expended on housing costs.

Homeownership and Rental Costs

Table 7-12 provides data on the amount monthly housing costs for homeowners in Dickinson. The percentage of homeowner

households whose housing costs exceeded 30 percent of their household income dropped from year 2000 to year 2010.

In 2000, 14.7 percent of homeowner households had housing costs greater than 30 percent of their household income. In

2010, that percentage dropped to 13.0 percent. The finding could be a result of sampling techniques used by the Censusto measure household income. Another possible explanation is the price of owner occupied housing units was in the early

stages of escalation in April 2010 when the census was conducted. Regardless of the results of the 2010 US Census, the

availability and cost of purchasing an owner occupied housing unit is a major community issue in 2012.

Table 7-12: Monthly Homeowner Costs as a Percentage of Household Income, Dickinson ND, 2000 and 2010

Monthly Owner Costs as a Percentage of Household Income2000 2010

Number Percent Number Percent

Less than 20.0 percent 2,296 60.3% 3,009 32.6%

20.0 to 24.9 percent 607 15.9% 751 15.6%

25.0 to 29.9 percent 287 7.5 407 8.530.0 to 34.9 percent 146 3.8 221 4.6

35.0 percent or more 414 10.9% 406 8.4%

Not computed 56 1.5% 11 0.2%

Total 3,806 100% 4,805 100%

SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2000 AND 2010 CENSUSES

Data in Table 7-13 clearly shows rental housing in the city became less affordable between 2000 and 2010. In 2000,

33.7 percent of renter households had housing costs greater than 30 percent of their household income. In 2010, that

percentage increased to 40.6 percent. In 2010, 35 percent of renter households paid gross rent that was greater than 35

percent of their household income.


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Table 7-13: Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income, Dickinson, 2000 and 2010

Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income2000 2010

Number Percent Number Percent

Less than 15.0 percent 481 20.8% 457 19.3%15.0 to 19.9 percent 384 16.6% 313 13.2%

20.0 to 24.9 percent 297 12.8% 374 15.8%

25.0 to 29.9 percent 237 10.2% 193 8.2%

30.0 to 34.9 percent 107 4.6% 133 5.6%

35.0 percent or more 674 29.1% 828 35.0

Not computed 134 5.8% 68 2.9%

Total 2,314 100 2,366 100

SOURCE: US CENSUS (EXCLUDES UNITS WHERE GRAPH CANNOT BE COMPUTED)

Table 7-14 provides valuable information regarding a households ability to purchase a home or rent a housing unit. Themonthly affordable housing costs were estimated at 30 percent of each income category and the affordable purchase price

was based on a lenders formula. The main assumptions made in calculating the affordable purchase price included a 30-

year loan fixed at 4 percent interest, 5 percent down payment, property taxes at 1.25 percent of the loan, mortgage and

hazard insurance at 0.6 percent of the loan and total debt at no more than 20 percent of income.

Households with extremely low and very low household incomes are expected to reside in rental housing. The 2010

median gross rent in Dickinson was $584 (US Census); however, based on input from the community, rental prices have

significantly increased through 2012. Households with extremely low and very low household incomes will experience

significant challenges in finding an affordable renter-occupied housing unit. In addition, with current median home prices

estimated between $160,000 and $190,000, the following income groups may have difficulty purchasing a home:

All households with extremely low and very low household incomes A majority of household with low incomes

A significant portion of moderate income households

As result, high demand for rental housing will likely exist within the city of Dickinson. Table 7-14 shows future demand for

rental housing, affordable rental housing and affordable owner occupied housing units.


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Table 7-14: Housing Affordability by Household Income Groups, City of Dickinson, 2010

SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST USING DATA FROM THE USDEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU

Community Survey 2 included a question asking What type of affordable housing units would you like to see constructed

in Dickinson? Survey respondents indicated they would like to see more single family homes, townhomes/duplexes and

apartments constructed as affordable housing options. Figure 7-4 shows the results of the survey question with single-family

homes representing the largest type of affordable unit desired.

The community appears to also support development of affordable housing. Only 5.5 percent of respondents chose a

response of I dont want affordable units in my neighborhood regardless of what they look like. However, to make this a

reality, the City should consider developing incentives for affordable units that are both attractive and functional. Because

of the strong real estate market in Dickinson, construction of affordable units may be difficult unless the City can help

incentivize such development.

Figure 7-4: Community Survey Affordable Housing

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #2

Income Categories Based on Income as Percentage of the Median Family Income (MFI) FY 2010

ExtremelyLow: 0% to30% MFI

Very Low:

31% to 50% MFI

Low Income:

51% to 80% MFI

Moderate:

81% to 115% MFI

Upper:Above

115% MFI

Tax Credit:

51% to 60% M

Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Ma

AnnualIncomeRanges

$0 $19,142 $19,143 $31,904 $31,905 $51,046 $51,047 $73,378$73,379

and above$31,905 $38,

MonthlyAffordableHousingCosts

$0 $479 $480 $798 $799 $1,276 $1,277 $1,834$1,834

and above$798 $95

AffordablePurchase

Price

$0 $39,178 $65,182 $104,442 $150,371 $181,238 $78,356

7.0%

39.0%

27.0%

22.0%

5.0% Manufactured Homes

Single-family Homes

Townhomes/Duplexes

Apartments

I don't want affordable units in

my neighborhood no matter

what they look like.


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Strategy: Establish an affordable housing project on city-owned land south of SW 8th Street or on property south

of I-94 and west of 10th Avenue or on other city-owned property. A portion of the land could be set aside or

sold for a nominal ($1) fee to Community Action Partnership or other non-profit developers such as Habitat for

Humanity or Lutheran Social Services.

Community Survey 2 included a question that addressed the subject of the city use of mandates and incentives to promote

the development of affordable housing. Figure 7-5 shows the response to the survey question that asked Should the City

offer incentives (more home per acre, fee waivers) for developers to build affordable housing or should the City require that

developers construct affordable housing? The results suggest that the community prefers some type of City assistance to

increase the development of affordable housing.

Figure 7-5: Community Survey Housing Incentives and/or Mandates


The North Dakota Housing Finance Agencys (NDHFA) Housing Incentive Fund (HIF) allows individuals, businesses and

financial institutions to receive a dollar-for-dollar state income tax credit in exchange for their contributions. Dollars given

can be targeted to a specific project or community. Currently, Dickinson has two projects that have applied for the tax

credits, which would produce 34 affordable units.

The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast report estimated that in 2010 there

were 714 households in the city that would qualify for the tax credit, and by year 2025 there could be an estimated

1,380 qualifying households. To qualify for the tax credit a households income needs to be between 51 and 60 percent

of the median family city income. In 2010, the median family city income was $63,807. To qualify for the tax credithouseholds need to have an income between $32,542 and $38,284. For more information regarding NDHFAs HIF

program including income limits, development costs and other program questions, please visit: http://www.ndhfa.org/

default.asp?nMenu=05379.


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Strategy: Encourage developers to utilize NDHFAs HIF program, which allows developers to receive up to a

25 percent tax credit on potential projects, to stimulate affordable housing development for rental and owner

housing needs.

Strategy: Create a housing partnership to develop affordable housing. The partnership would consist of a non-

profit community development corporation such as the Community Action Partnership, a lending consortium and

an information and counseling service. Community Action Partnership could utilize the NDHFA HIF program to

leverage funds for affordable housing. The lending consortium usually consists of credit unions and banks that

would be willing to finance affordable housing projects. NDHFA would also serve as the information/counseling

service.

Manufactured Homes

Manufactured homes can be affordable housing option for many households. Two manufactured home communities in the

city were developed several decades ago and lack the design features and amenities included in todays manufactured home

communities. To address the public perception to the two existing manufactured home communities, Community Survey 2

included the following question: Should manufactured/mobile home developments include performance standards suchas architectural design guidelines, larger lot sizes, open space and landscaping? Figure 7-6 shows the response to the

question. Results indicate the community supports the development of well-designed manufacturing communities.

Figure 7-6: Community Survey Manufactured/Mobile Homes


63.4%5.9%

30.7%

Yes

No

Maybe - I'd have to see

examples before I decide


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Strategy: Encourage development of manufactured home development and require mobile home and

manufactured housing developments to incorporate performance standards such as design guidelines, larger

lot sizes, landscaping and open space recreation areas.

Temporary Housing

The rapid growth in energy development over the past five years has generated a tremendous workforce of temporary

energy-extraction employees. Most workers are from out of state and regularly commute back to their home communities.

As such, the vast majority of the workers rely on various temporary housing. The workers have found temporary housing

from the following sources:

Hotel rooms contracted out for extended periods of time by the oil companies

RV and mobile home parks

Subletting of homes

On-site housing of employees

Temporary crew camp facilities

Crew camp facilities, if designed and managed properly, offer several benefits including alleviating demand for permanenthousing units, generating city revenue, providing infrastructure improvements paid by crew camp owners and creating

redevelopment opportunities when temporary crew camp facilities are no longer needed.

To help alleviate the housing demand and reduce the likelihood of overbuilding housing, temporary crew camps should

be encouraged and built in the city. Future crew camp sites should be placed where infrastructure currently exists or will be

built by the crew camp developers. In addition, facilities should be situated where they can be converted to another use

or easily dismantled. Compatibility with nearby residential uses should be a central factor in determining an appropriate

location for crew camps. Crew camps should be located in areas that are predominantly commercial or industrial in nature.

Figure 7-7 shows the result of a Community Survey 1 question, which asked Where should crew camps be located? The

majority of respondents (65 percent) indicated crew camps should be located near within 1-2 miles of the city boundary.

However, if impacts of crew camps can be properly mitigated, they could be developed within the existing city boundary to

maximize the efficiency of infrastructure and law enforcement services.


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Figure 7-7: Community Survey Crew Camps


Strategy: Utilize existing crew camp policies and development standards to minimize impacts to the community

and locate future crew camps in commercial or light industrial areas, preferably near existing crew camp facilities.

Strategy: Develop plans for future reuse of crew camp facilities or the land where crew camp facilities have been

removed from the site. Potential reuse options include senior style apartment complexes, housing for Dickinson

State University students or commercial/industrial type projects.Future Housing Demand

As discussed in the Population Characteristics, Trends and Projections Chapter, NDSU prepared three employment and

housing forecast scenarios. The scenarios differed in the assumed future rate of energy development in western North

Dakota and the amount of the forecasted demand the city was able to meet. The City Commission chose a forecast

scenario that assumed 1) the future energy development would be at a rate equal to the average of the slow and rapid

growth of energy development and 2) that the city would exceed its current share of regional housing (50 percent) and meet

70 percent of the forecasted demand for permanent housing.

Temporary and permanent energy-sector workforces have different housing needs. As such, housing forecasts were

prepared for the total number of housing units (temporary and permanent housing) and the number of permanent housing.

The demand for temporary housing includes crew camps, long-term hotel leases and other non-traditional housing while

the demand for permanent housing will be met by conventional housing products.

Table 7-15 and Figure 7-8 show the forecasted total, permanent and temporary housing demand for the city. Table 7-16

provides summary information on the peak year for permanent and temporary housing demand, the number of new

permanent housing units required to meet peak demand, and the percent change in permanent housing units to meet peak

demand and other measures to assist the city planning for growth in residential development. The City will need to track

new units permitted to compare the supply of permitted housing units to the forecasted demand. By monitoring the supply

6.0%

64.5%

20.5%

9.0%

Within city limits

On the urban fringe (within 1-2

miles of the city boundary)

Somewhere in the county

Do not want anywhere


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of new housing in relation to demand, City planning staff will be able to evaluate if over-building is occurring or whether

supply is not keeping up with the forecasted demand resulting in upward pressures on the cost of housing.

Table 7-15: Forecasted Housing Demand, City of Dickinson, 2011-2035

Year Total HousingDemand

PermanentHousing Demand

Percent ChangeFrom Prior Year

TemporaryHousing Demand

Percent Changefrom Prior Year

2011 11,263 8,435 -- 2,828 --

2012 12,659 9,189 8.9% 3,470 22.7%

2013 13,913 10,040 9.3% 3.873 11.6%

2014 15,054 10,928 8.8% 4,126 6.5%

2015 16,211 11,903 8.9% 4,308 4.4%

2016 17,285 12,971 9.0% 4,314 0.1%

2017 18,436 14,185 9.4% 4,251 -1.5%

2018 19,380 15,294 7.8% 4,086 -3.9%

2019 20,152 16,274 6.4% 3,878 -5.1%2020 20,761 17,059 4.8% 3,702 -4.5%

2021 21,381 17,824 4.5% 3,557 -3.9%

2022 21,400 18,074 1.4% 3,326 -6.5%

2023 21,476 18,313 1.3% 3,163 -4.9%

2024 20,228 18,468 0.8% 1,760 -44.4%

2025 18,996 18,544 0.4% 452 -74.3%

2026 18,940 18,601 0.3% 339 -25.0%

2027 18,927 18,662 0.3% 265 -21.8%

2028 18,929 18,722 0.3% 207 -21.9%

2029 18,928 18,779 0.3% 149 -28.0%

2030 18,906 18,833 0.3% 73 -51.0%

2031 18,933 18,881 0.3% 52 -28.8%

2032 18,922 18,922 0.2% 0 -100.0%

2033 18,933 18,933 0.1% 0 --

2034 18,939 18,939 0.0% 0 --

2035 18,943 18,943 0.0% 0 --

SOURCE: NDSU


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Figure 7-8: Forecasted Housing Demand, City of Dickinson, 2011 - 2035

SOURCE: NDSU

Table 7-16: Summary of Housing Demand, City of Dickinson 2011 - 2035

PermanentHousing

TemporaryHousing

Peak Demand (Units) 18,943 4,314

Year for Peak Demand 2035 2016

Peak Years in Growth of Demand 2016-2017 2011-2012

Annual Number of Units Added (Peak Year Demand) 1,000 --

Number Change (2011 to 2035) 11,078 --

Percent Change (2011 to 2035) 140.9% --

SOURCE: KLJ

To meet the forecasted supply of housing, Dickinson should consider establishing a new residential zoning district that

would allow a greater density than the R-3 zoning district. A new high density residential zoning district could help alleviate

the strong housing demand by providing developers with an option to construct more units per acre which would help to

bring down the costs of housing and promote the cost-effective use of city infrastructure.

Figure 7-9 shows the result of a Community Survey #2 question which addressed the issue of establishing a new high

density zoning district. The response to this question suggests community support for a new high density zoning district. Only

one-third of the respondents rejected the idea outright.


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Figure 7-9: Community Survey - High Density Zoning


Strategy: Create a new, high-density residential district that would allow more than 25 units per acre, thus

increasing the number of homes per acre which can help reduce housing costs while also promote the cost-

effective use of city infrastructure.

The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast provides valuable information on the

number and type of households that constitute the aggregate forecasted demand for housing. Table 7-17 shows theforecasted demand for owner occupied housing units by age group. Between 2010 and 2025 the demand for owner

occupied housing units is forecasted to increase by more than 70 percent. The greatest forecasted demand for owner

occupied housing units will be from persons aged 25 to 44 years.


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Table 7-17: Owner Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder, City of Dickinson, 2010 - 2025

Age Group 2010 # of Units 2015 # of Units 2020 # of Units 2025 # of UnitsPercent Change

2010-2025

Less than25 years 105 125 143 157 49.5%

25-44Years

1,360 2,270 3,012 3,080 126.5%

45-64years

2,130 2,409 2,994 3,183 49.4%

65 yearsand older

1,210 1,296 1,477 1,801 48.8%

DickinsonTotal

4,805 6,100 7,626 8,221 71.1%

Region VIIITotal

15,882 20,675 24,981 26,817 68.9%

SOURCE: CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU AND 2006-2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, 5-YEAR ESTIMATES

Table 7-18 shows the forecasted demand for renter occupied units by age group. Between 2010 and 2025 the demand

for renter occupied housing units is forecasted to increase by 114 percent. The demand for renter occupied housing units

is relatively greater than Region VIII. Strong demand for renter occupied units is forecasted for persons aged 25 to 64.

Between 2010 and 2025 the demand for renter occupied housing units for persons aged 25 to 44 years is forecasted

to increase more than 200 percent, and the demand for persons aged 45 to 64 years is forecasted to double. Given the

very strong forecasted demand for renter occupied units, the City should encourage development of apartments and other

rental housing products.

Table 7-18: Renter Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder, City of Dickinson and Region VIII, 2010 -

2025

Age Group 2010 # of Units 2015 # of Units 2020 # of Units 2025 # of UnitsPercent Change

2010-2025

Less than25 years

493 690 788 863 75.1%

25-44Years

711 1,625 2,156 2,204 210.0%

45-64years

511 807 1,002 1,066 108.6%

65 yearsand older

651 671 764 931 43.0%

DickinsonTotal

2,366 3,793 4,710 5,064 114.0%

Region VIIITotal

3,899 5,979 7,273 7,795 99.9%



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Table 7-19 shows the forecast of homebuyer type who are expected to purchase a home in the city between 2010 and

2025. The forecasted number of homebuyers in all income groups and first time homebuyers is expected to double

between 2010 and 2025. The forecasted doubling of home purchases by low income households will likely not be met

unless the supply of affordable housing increases significantly. Housing developers should attempt to meet the forecasted

demand of households eligible for the NDHFAs HIF tax credit program.

Table 7-19: Households by Homebuyer Type, City of Dickinson, 2010 - 2025

HomebuyerType

2010 # of Units 2015 # of Units 2020 # of Units 2025 # of UnitsPercent Change

2010-2025

First TimeBuyer

1,185 2,123 2,766 2,851 140.0%

LowIncome

2,145 3,202 4,043 4,242 97.8%

ModerateIncome

1,240 1,858 2,393 2,491 100.9%

UpperIncome

1,771 2,656 3,419 3,559 101.0%

Eligible forTax Credit

1,861 1,966 2,241 2,732 46.8%


Notes: 1. First Time Homebuyer defined as less than 45 years with household income from $30,000 to $74,999

2. Low Income Homebuyer defined as less than 65 years with household income less than $50,000

3. Moderate Income Homebuyer defined as ages 25 to 64 with household income from $50,000 to $74,999

4. Upscale Homebuyer defined as ages 25 to 64 with household income of $75,000 or more

Housing Programs and Incentives

Housing availability and cost will continue to be a major concern for many residents as forecasted energy development

in western North Dakota is expected to continue over the next decade. To help meet the strong demand for housing of all

types, including affordable housing, the use of housing programs and incentives is recommended. The City should consider

implementing, or supporting the implementation by others, the following housing programs and incentives.

Community Land Trust

The National Community Land Trust Network is a nationwide organization that helps promote community land trusts (CLT)

as well as assists communities in establishing such land trusts. A typical CLT is defined as a non-profit entity that owns land

and leases it for a nominal fee thereby reducing housing costs. Participating residents get the benefit of owning a home

while being able to afford the purchase because the land belongs to the CLT, thus removing a significant cost in the home

purchase price. A provision is established in the resale of the home limiting the amount of profit the current owner whichensures the home will remain relatively affordable over a long period of time.

The goal of CLT as defined by the National Community Land Trust Network is to provide access to land and housing to

people who are otherwise denied access, increase long-term community control of neighborhood resources, empower

residents through involvement and participation in the organization and preserve the affordability of housing permanently.

CLTs are well suited for communities struggling with the issue of housing affordability because CLTs do not need additional

subsidies each time the house resells; the permanent affordability is built into the land lease in perpetuity.

For more information on CLTs visit: http://www.cltnetwork.org//index.php.


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Resident Owned Communities

Resident owned communities (ROC) are growing in popularity. A ROC is essentially a manufactured home park, mobile

home or trailer park whereby residents purchase land from the private owner and establish a not-for-profit organization

similar to a homeowners association. The key to successfully implementing a ROC is having buy-in from all residents towork together and buy the land. Several organizations exist to help mobile home park residents establish a ROC, including

ROC USA and NeighborWorks Montana, a statewide housing organization funded with the goal of promoting sustainable

homeownership. Neighborworks Montana would be a valuable resource if Dickinson decided to promote the establishment

of ROCs in the community.

Figure 7-10: ROC House in a NeighborWorks Montana Community in Great Falls, MT

SOURCE: NEIGHBORWORKS MONTANA

For more information on ROCs visit: http://www.nwmt.org/roc.html or http://rocusa.org/.

Funding Incentives including NDHFAs HIF Program

Low income housing tax credits (LIHTC) and the HIF program provide developers tax credits to facilitate financing for

affordable housing development. LIHTCs are given on a national basis and funded through the US Department of Housing

and Urban Development (HUD). However, local housing programs and NDHFA can assist home builders and developers

in applying for LIHTC and HIF tax credits.

Property tax exemptions are another tool the City can use to promote development of affordable housing. The City could

include property tax exemption provisions in development agreements that establish price points for a specified number

of housing units, the number, type and size of housing units and other factors that would yield a specified amount of

affordable housing.


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The US Department of Agriculture-Rural Development awards grants and low-interest loans specifically targeted for

constructing affordable housing units. Rental assistance and housing preservation grants are also offered to ensure low-

income housing units are retained and not demolished for market-rate housing. Visit http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/HMF_

MFH.html for more information.

Land Development Incentives

Dickinson can implement several land development strategies to incentivize affordable housing units. Incentives may

include providing density bonuses for subdivisions that provide affordable housing units, revising zoning guidelines to

encourage smaller lot sizes, infill development and a new high-density residential zone and providing financial assistance

with infrastructure costs.

Homeless Coalition

The Region 8 Southwest Homeless Coalition is responsible for assisting homeless persons and families in the Dickinson

area find shelter and food. The coalition also partners with the North Dakota Coalition for Homeless People, which is

located in Bismarck. As noted on the coalitions website, The Coalition believes that housing and other basic human needs

should be within everyones reach in an affordable and dignified manner. Our vision is to be a statewide team of agencies

collaborating to end homelessness.

The Citys support of the homeless coalition would assist it in its mission to help those who are less fortunate find housing

and food. The coalition has prepared a 10-year strategic plan to end homelessness in the region (the plan can be accessed

at: http://www.ndhomelesscoalition.org/images/10year/Dickinson10YearPlan.pdf).The City should continue to work with

the program to expand the services listed below and support the strategies contained in the 10-year plan, especially as

more people relocate to the Dickinson area.

Services

Develop supportive housing for homeless individuals and families.

Work to prevent further homelessness. Improve access to services for the homeless.

Share information and strategies among local homeless coalitions.

Advocate for local initiatives to improve housing and services for the homeless.

Promote involvement, collaboration and leadership from local service providers and units of government through the

development and implementation of a statewide Continuum of Care plan.

Objectives and Recommended Policies

Objective 1: Increase quantity and quality of rental units to accommodate low- and fixed-income residents.

Policy 1.1 Establish a density bonus for development projects that include affordable housing. Density bonuses should

be based on the number of affordable units in the project and should be implemented using a sliding scale (e.g. moreaffordable units equals higher density).

Policy 1.2 Coordinate with non-profit development groups to create affordable housing projects and promote the North

Dakota Housing Finance Agencys Housing Incentive Fund (HIF), which allows developers to construct affordable rental

units and to receive up to a 25 percent tax credit.

Policy 1.3 Encourage developers to utilize low-income tax credits provided by HIF to support the development of affordable

rental properties.


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Policy 1.4 The City should consider participating in the US Department of Housing and Urban Development HOME

Investment Partnerships, Self-Help Home Ownership and Home Ownership Zone programs to increase the number of

affordable housing units in the city.

Policy 1.5 City staff shall place a priority on the review projects with affordable housing. The City shall also consider

waiving application fees and other city fees for projects with a specified percentage of units dedicated to affordable housing

(e.g. 1-9 units equals 50 percent reduction in fees and 10 more units equals no fees).

Objective 2: Develop incentives to construct quality, affordable single-family homes and provide more housing

options.

Policy 2.1 Promote affordable housing development to accommodate housing needs of service sector workers. Consider

grant or loan programs administered by the Department of Commerce, Bank of North Dakota and USDA Rural Development.

Policy 2.2 Allow accessory dwelling units on single-family detached properties subject to lot area, height and floor area

standards to increase the supply of affordable housing. Accessory dwelling units shall be permitted in subdivisions that

receive preliminary plat approval after the adoption of the comprehensive plan. The City consider allowing accessory

dwelling units in all subdivisions.

Policy 2.3 Encourage creation of Community Land Trusts and Resident-Owned Communities in the city.

Policy 2.4 Monitor the amount and types of housing being built to ensure supply is meeting demand, and use the

collected data to prevent incentivizing of projects that could lead to excess supply.

Objective 3: Strengthen neighborhoods by developing pedestrian scale retail services.

Policy 3.1 Promote development of commercial retail uses at strategic locations such as within walking distance of

DSU, in the downtown to support existing professional service businesses, and within planned residential areas to provide

convenient access to retail businesses.

Policy 3.2 Establish new zoning regulations to encourage mixed residential development and establish a new high density

zoning district with a maximum density of 25 or more units per acres.

Policy 3.3 Encourage high-quality mobile home and manufactured housing subdivision developments at appropriate

locations and establish with performance standards in the zoning ordinance that address the design and private common

amenities in manufactured home communities.

Objective 4: Encourage development of crew camps at appropriate locations and encourage crew camps design

that can be redeveloped for other uses.

Policy 4.1 Crew camps should not be established in areas that would directly impact existing or planned residential areas.

Crew camps should be established in predominantly intensive commercial or industrial areas.

Policy 4.2 Consider the recommended amendments to the crew camp ordinance provided in Appendix B intended to

address ambiguities and unaddressed issues in the existing ordinance.

Policy 4.3 Encourage crew camp facilities designed for reuse options such as student housing for Dickinson State

University, senior style apartments, low-income housing or a homeless shelter.

Objective 5: Support the activities of the Southwest Homeless Coalition to create a homeless or transitional

shelter.


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