Chapter 9: Evaluating intelligence-led policing
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Transcript of Chapter 9: Evaluating intelligence-led policing
Chapter 9: Evaluating intelligence-led policing
Evaluation is key to crime control
Five features of a rational approach to crime control: Adequate investment in measuring and monitoring Open access to crime and justice information Reliance on evidence in the development of policy Commitment to rigorous evaluation A flexible and eclectic approach to control
Weatherburn, D. (2004) Law and Order in Australia: Rhetoric and Reality (Sydney: Federation Press) pp.36-38.
Basics of evaluation
Did you get what you expected? Was the program implemented as expected? Did it crime reduce? If so…
Compared to what? What is the baseline ‘null hypothesis’ situation that makes
a good comparison?
Two structures to evaluation
InterpretInterpret ImpactImpact
InfluenceInfluence
Information structures
Two structures to evaluation
InterpretInterpret ImpactImpact
InfluenceInfluence
Organizational structures
Two types of evaluation
Outcome evaluation Tells you whether a process had the desired effect, i.e. that
crime was reduced
Process evaluation Can tell you why the outcome occurred. Examines the
operation to see why an observed outcome happened
Operation Vendas
Pilot informally assessed as successful, but Operation Vendas did not have desired impact
New South Wales, Australia Sought to increase the risk and speed of capture for
offenders by boosting the volume of forensic evidence collection and reducing the time to get samples analyzed
Process evaluation Found stated aim of crime scene examinations never
attained Discovered a lack of forensic resources Identified training problems
Operation Safe Streets
Philadelphia Police Department Placed officers on permanent post at over 200 drug
corners in the city Outcome evaluation found officers had a localized
dampening effect on crime Giannetti (2007) reports that
Officers began to take calls away from corners Foot patrols reverted to roving car patrols Incentive to arrest was removed and information flow to
detectives reduced
Volume and type of anonymous drug tip
Analytical skills for evaluation
Some skills that may be required Analytical dexterity Proficiency in non-parametric and regression interpretation Spatial analysis Interrupted time series analysis Crime mapping
‘quite soon, crime mapping will become as much an essential tool of criminological research as statistical analysis is at present’ Clarke, R.V. (2004) 'Technology, criminology and crime science', European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 10:1, pp. 60.
Maryland Scientific Methods Scale
Scale of zero (no confidence in the findings) to five (high confidence in the results)
A hierarchy of evaluation standards (top to bottom) Randomized, controlled, double-blind trials Quasi-experimental studies (experiments without
randomization) Controlled observational studies Observational studies without a control group Expert opinion!
Realistic evaluation
Pawson and Tilley’s realistic evaluation or scientific realist approach
Researchers should Investigate the relationships between context, mechanism
and outcome Study using more qualitative, narrative, and ethnographic
research techniques. Understand that the key is to clarify how the choices that
people make affect the outcome of the programs under examination
Operation Anchorage
Canberra, Australia – Australian Capital Territory (ACT)
February 2001 to end of June 2001 Significant problem with burglary Anchorage placed significant emphasis on
Senior leadership Targeting of recidivist offenders through crime and
intelligence analysis The development of joint operations across different
branches of ACT Policing
Operation Anchorage
Four teams of 10-12 investigators 6 police analysts New targets were circulated every two weeks Anchorage came on the heels of two relatively
unsuccessful operations, called Chronicle and Dilute
Weekly burglary frequency in the ACT
Economic and social costs of crime
In Australia, a 2003 estimate of the cost of burglary to society found a cost in Australian dollars of
AU$2,400 per burglary AU$2,000 per residential burglary AU$4,500 per non-residential burglary
Total saving for Operation Anchorage AU$7,125,600
AU$1,257,600 during Anchorage AU$5,868,000 benefit after Anchorage
Financial benefits of Operation Anchorage
Studying recidivists
232 people arrested during Anchorage 119 had committed at least one offence before 1999 Chart their aggregate number of days in prison or on
remand…
Incarceration rates
Impact of recidivist incarceration
Measuring success in different ways
In regard to major criminal and terrorist operations…
‘Not only are we expected to anticipate the next move, but we also have to do something about bringing those involved to justice. This highlights one of the fundamental differences between intelligence that aims to warn and prevent, and investigations for which success is measured by successful prosecution and conviction’
Mick Keelty, Australian Federal Police Commissioner, 2004
Cost-effectiveness of the use of CIs
Reward cost only Full cost
Cost for each arrest £54 ($87) £697 ($1,125)
Cost for each crime clearance £27 ($44) £348 ($561)
Value of property recovered to cost ratio
£34 ($55) to 1 £2.60 ($4.20) to 1
Adapted from Dunnighan and Norris (1999)
Operation Green Ice
Operation Green Ice DEA set up their own bank in a sting operation to tempt
drug traffickers into money laundering Undercover agents laundered US$20 million of Colombian
drug cartel money Led to arrest of seven of the Cali drug cartel’s top financial
managers, the seizure of more than US$50 million in assets worldwide, and the arrest of 177 people
United Nations estimated Cali cartel profits to be about US$30 billion a year
RCMP Disruption Attributes ToolCore business Financial Personnel
Attribute description
The instruments / process central to the criminal enterprise
Financial capacity / status of the group including profits / financial assets gained through organized crime
Individuals employed through organized crime
High Removed the capacity to supply/operate
Removed and/or interrupted the organization’s financial ability to mount their large scale operations
Arrested and/or charged individuals with the majority of the knowledge, contact, expertise, experience, and executive influence
Medium Interrupted production and/or distribution of supply network
Seizure / restraint of significant proceeds of crime relative to the financial scope of the organization
Arrested and/or charged support personnel/skilled operators with expertise, knowledge and contacts
Low Seized commodities without disrupting production and/or distribution
Seizure / restraints of minor proceeds of crime or interruption of the means to launder and/or legitimize proceeds of crime
Arrested and/or charged replaceable unskilled operators / street level operators / couriers
Nil No commodities seized
No profits / financial assets seized No individuals arrested
Performance anxiety
Some performance areas are so vague as to create huge numbers of performance measures.
UK government priority areas include reducing crime investigating crime promoting safety providing assistance citizen focus resource use local policing
Unintended consequences of measures
Tunnel vision Sub-optimization Myopia Measure fixation Misrepresentation Misinterpretation Gaming Ossification Demoralization Discreditability