Chapter 9: Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

A More Perfect Union 1/e

Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Civic Engagement and Political Participation

– Voting

– Volunteering

– Running for Office

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Elections in the United States

– Nominations and Primary Elections

• Types of Primary Elections

• Presidential Primaries

– General Elections

– Referendum, Initiative, and Recall

– The Act of Voting

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Elections in the United States

– The 2000 Election and Its Impact

– Types of Ballots

– Why Ballot Design Matters

– Voting by Mail

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(continued)

Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Running for Office: The Choice to Run

– Formal Eligibility Requirements

– Informal Eligibility Requirements

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• The Nature of Campaigns Today

– The Professionalism of Political Campaigns

– Media and New Technologies: Transforming Political Campaigns

• Personality versus Policy

• Revolutionizing the Campaign: The Internet

– Money and Modern Campaigns

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Regulating Campaign Contributions

– Regulatory Loopholes: Independent Expenditures

– Regulatory Loopholes: Soft Money

– The Impact of Regulation: The Growth of PACs

– The Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002

– Regulatory Loophole: 527s

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Presidential Campaigns

– Party Conventions and the General Election Campaign

– The Electoral College

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Who Votes? Factors in Voter Participation

– Education Level—the Number one Predictor of Voting

– The Age Factor

– Race and Voter Participation

– Income—a Reliable Predictor of Voting

– Party Competitiveness and Voter Turnout

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• How Voters Decide

– Major Factors in Voter Decision Making

• Party Identification

• Policy Priorities

• Incumbency

– Campaign Influences on Voter Choice

• Greater Reliance on Paid Professional Staffers

• Negative Campaigning

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Elections, Campaigns, and Voting

• Why Some People Do Not Vote

– Lack of Efficacy

– Voter Fatigue and Negative Campaigns

– The Structure of Elections

– The Rational Abstention Thesis

– The Impact of Nonvoting

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Chapter ThreeChapter Three

ElectionsElections

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--11 Qualified Political Parties in California Qualified Political Parties in California

%0.4www.peaceandfreedom.orgPeace and Freedom

%0.5Other

%18.7Decline to state

%0.1www.natural-law.orgNatural Law

%0.5www.ca.lp.orgLibertarian

%0.9www.cagreens.orgGreen

%2.0www.aipca.orgAmerican Independent

%34.3www.cagop.orgRepublican

%42.5www.cadem.orgDemocratic

Percent of

registered

voters*

WebsiteQualified party

* Does not total exactly 100% due to rounding.* Does not total exactly 100% due to rounding.

15,837,108 registered voters in October 2006 15,837,108 registered voters in October 2006 —— 70% of the 22,652,190 Californians eligible to vote.70% of the 22,652,190 Californians eligible to vote.

Source: California Secretary of StateSource: California Secretary of State

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--22 Expenditures in State Expenditures in State

Assembly Campaigns: 1976Assembly Campaigns: 1976--1998 1998 Incumbents significantly outspend challengersIncumbents significantly outspend challengers

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--22 Expenditures in State Expenditures in State

Assembly Campaigns: 1976Assembly Campaigns: 1976--1998 1998 Winners outspend losersWinners outspend losers

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--33

The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees, The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees,

and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of

the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.

$11,000,000$955,520Tribal GovernmentPro Proposition 70 (lost)

San Manuel Band of Mission Indians

$1,010,525$11,413,588

Political Party CommitteeLargest recipients were Michael Machado (won) and Peg Pinard (lost)

California Democratic Party

$12,818,278$1,014,315Public Sector UnionPro Proposition 56 (lost)Pro Proposition 72 (lost)

California State Council of Service Employees International Union

$13,700,000$688,650Tribal GovernmentPro Proposition 70 (lost)

Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians

Amount to Ballot

Measures

Amount to Candidates

Interest Group, Policy or Candidate Supported or Opposed, and Outcome

Contributor Name

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--33

The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees, The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees,

and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of

the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.

$8,285,047$83,800Tribal GovernmentCon Proposition 68 (lost)

Auburn Rancheria

$8,334,600$1,251,600Tribal GovernmentPro Proposition 70 (lost) Con Proposition 68 (lost)

Morongo Band of Mission Indians

$10,178,721$0Candidate CommitteePro Proposition 57 (won) Con Proposition 68 (lost)

Schwarzenegger’s California Recovery Team, Governor

$8,620,336$1,838,925

Public Sector UnionPro Proposition 55 (won)Pro Proposition 56 (lost)Pro Proposition 72 (lost)

California Teachers Association

Amount to Ballot

Measures

Amount to Candidates

Interest Group, Policy or Candidate Supported or Opposed, and Outcome

Contributor Name

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--33

The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees, The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees,

and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of

the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.

$5,571,142$498,004Tribal GovernmentCon Proposition 68 (lost)

Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians

$6,693,293$47,300Tribal GovernmentCon Proposition 68 (lost)

Pala Band of Mission Indians

$1,374,528$6,314,060

Political Party CommitteeLargest recipients were Gary Podesto (lost), Dean Gardner (lost), and Shirley Horton (won)

California Republican Party

$8,244,241$97,000Tribal GovernmentCon Proposition 68 (lost)

Rumsey Band of Wintun Indians

Amount to Ballot

Measures

Amount to Candidates

Interest Group, Policy or Candidate Supported or Opposed, and Outcome

Contributor Name

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--33

The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees, The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees,

and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of

the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.

$4,181,776$558,874Telephone UtilitiesCon Proposition 67 (lost)

SBC Communications

$4,800,008$54,200Gambling & CasinosPro Proposition 68 (lost)

Magna Entertainment Corp

$0$5,313,732Candidate self-financeRepublican candidate 21st

Assembly (lost)Poizner Family Trust

$5,304,911$453,456AutomotivePro Proposition 64

California Motor Car Dealers Association

Amount to Ballot

Measures

Amount to Candidates

Interest Group, Policy or Candidate Supported or Opposed, and Outcome

Contributor Name

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--33

The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees, The top 20 contributors to candidates, party committees,

and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of and/or ballot measure committees accounted for 29 percent of

the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.the total contributions in 2004 election cycle.

$3,109,888$0GovernmentPro Proposition 1A (won)

League of California Cities

$3,414,000$2,000Gambling & CasinosPro Proposition 68 (lost)

Pinnacle Entertainment

$3,302,426$334,620Tribal GovernmentCon Proposition 68 (lost)

Viejas Band of Kumeyaay Indians

$3,978,835$354,276

Hospitals & Nursing HomesPro Proposition 67 (lost)Pro Proposition 72 (lost)Pro Proposition 63 (won)

California Healthcare Association

Amount to Ballot

Measures

Amount to Candidates

Interest Group, Policy or Candidate Supported or Opposed, and Outcome

Contributor Name

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--44

California Campaign Contribution LimitsCalifornia Campaign Contribution Limits

----No limit------No limitBallot Measure Committee

------------$27,900/year$27,900/yearPolitical Party

--------------$200/yearSmall Contribution Committee

--------------$5,600/yearPolitical Action Committee

No limit$0 $11,100/election$5,600/election$5,600/electionOther statewide

No limit$0 $22,300/election$22,300/election$22,300/electionGovernor*

$100,000 No limit$3,300/electionNo limit$0 $6,700/election$3,300/election$3,300/election**State legislative

Candidate

LoanContribution

Candidate (to self)Candidate (to another candidate)

Political Party

Reg’dLobbyist

Small Contribution Committee

Political Action Committee

Individual

From

To

Source: State of California, Fair Political Practices Commission.

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--55 California Voter Participation by Race/Ethnicity 2004

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--55 California Voter Participation by Age 2004

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--5 5 California Voter Participation by Education

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--5 5 California Voter Participation by Income

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--66

Voter Participation: Percent of Eligible Population Voter Participation: Percent of Eligible Population

Voting in General ElectionsVoting in General Elections

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

CaliforniaCalifornia’’s Coastals Coastal--Inland Political DivideInland Political Divide

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

November 2006 Gubernatorial ElectionNovember 2006 Gubernatorial Election

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

November 2004 Presidential ElectionNovember 2004 Presidential Election

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

October 2003 Special Election: October 2003 Special Election:

Shall Gray Davis be Recalled?Shall Gray Davis be Recalled?

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

November 2002 Gubernatorial ElectionNovember 2002 Gubernatorial Election

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

November 2000 Presidential ElectionNovember 2000 Presidential Election

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--77

November 1998 Gubernatorial ElectionNovember 1998 Gubernatorial Election

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--88 Diminishing DemocratDiminishing Democrat--Republican Republican

Registration and Growth of IndependentsRegistration and Growth of Independents

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--99 Growing Latino ElectorateGrowing Latino Electorate

Exhibit 3Exhibit 3--1010

Increasing Absentee VotingIncreasing Absentee Voting