Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Political Socialization.

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Chapter 6 Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Public Opinion and Political Socialization Political Socialization

Transcript of Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Political Socialization.

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Chapter 6Chapter 6

Public Opinion and Political Public Opinion and Political SocializationSocialization

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Public Opinion Matters-Just ask Public Opinion Matters-Just ask them!them!

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Public Opinion is ImportantPublic Opinion is Important

Can legitimize political authority through pollsCan legitimize political authority through polls Can make political actors more responsiveCan make political actors more responsive

– ClintonClinton delegate model delegate model– Bush (G.W.)Bush (G.W.) trustee model trustee model

It can help candidates win campaignsIt can help candidates win campaigns– Push poll- “A Push poll- “A push pollpush poll is where, using the guise of is where, using the guise of

opinion polling, opinion polling, disinformation about a candidate or about a candidate or issue is planted in the minds of those being 'surveyed'. issue is planted in the minds of those being 'surveyed'. Push-polls are designed to shape, rather than measure, Push-polls are designed to shape, rather than measure, public opinion” (sourcewatch.org). public opinion” (sourcewatch.org).

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Public opinion is important (caveat).Public opinion is important (caveat).

Public opinion isn’t stable or consistent.Public opinion isn’t stable or consistent. People have differing opinions.People have differing opinions. Public opinion is sometimes misinformed Public opinion is sometimes misinformed

(for most people, public opinion comes from (for most people, public opinion comes from their values and interests not their their values and interests not their knowledge base).knowledge base).

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Public Opinion-What is it and how is Public Opinion-What is it and how is it measured?it measured?

Public opinion-politically relevant opinions held by Public opinion-politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openlyordinary citizens that they express openly– America is made of multiple publicsAmerica is made of multiple publics

Election returns, newspaper editorials, Election returns, newspaper editorials, participation level in demonstrations, and poll participation level in demonstrations, and poll results are all indicators of public opinion. results are all indicators of public opinion.

Polls are the chief method by which public opinion Polls are the chief method by which public opinion is measured.is measured.

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Characteristics of Public OpinionCharacteristics of Public Opinion

When evaluating public opinion, it is important to When evaluating public opinion, it is important to examineexamine– Intensity (how strongly do people feel about an issue)Intensity (how strongly do people feel about an issue)– Stability/fluidity (how stable/fluid is public opinion on this Stability/fluidity (how stable/fluid is public opinion on this

issue over time)issue over time)– Latency (to what extent are people unfamiliar with the Latency (to what extent are people unfamiliar with the

issue or just haven’t formed opinions on the issue)issue or just haven’t formed opinions on the issue)– Distribution (what is the range of opinion on a particular Distribution (what is the range of opinion on a particular

issue)issue)

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The Vocabulary of Public Opinion The Vocabulary of Public Opinion PollsPolls

Public opinion poll-Public opinion poll- device more measuring device more measuring public opinion whereby a relatively small number public opinion whereby a relatively small number of individuals is interviewed for the purposes of of individuals is interviewed for the purposes of estimating the opinions of a whole communityestimating the opinions of a whole community

Population-Population- the people whose opinions are being the people whose opinions are being estimatedestimated

Sample-Sample- the relatively small number of people the relatively small number of people interviewed for the purpose of estimating the interviewed for the purpose of estimating the opinions of an entire populationopinions of an entire population

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The Vocabulary of Public Opinion The Vocabulary of Public Opinion PollsPolls

Probability sample-Probability sample-a sample for a poll in a sample for a poll in which each individual in the population has which each individual in the population has a known probability of being selected a known probability of being selected randomly for inclusion in the samplerandomly for inclusion in the sample

Sampling errorSampling error-a measure of the -a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll; mainly a accuracy of a public opinion poll; mainly a function of sample size and is usually function of sample size and is usually expressed in percentage termsexpressed in percentage terms

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What makes a good public opinion What makes a good public opinion poll?poll?

Random sample of entire population (1,000-Random sample of entire population (1,000-1,500)1,500)

Careful question wordingCareful question wording– ClearClear– Questions won’t bias responseQuestions won’t bias response– Answer categories capture range of opinionAnswer categories capture range of opinion

Low and clearly reported sampling errorLow and clearly reported sampling error Respondents have knowledge about the Respondents have knowledge about the

topictopic

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What are some shortcomings of What are some shortcomings of polls?polls?

Large sampling errorLarge sampling error Non-random samplesNon-random samples Timing of polls matching opinionTiming of polls matching opinion

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How is public opinion formed?How is public opinion formed?

People develop their attitudes about politics People develop their attitudes about politics and government through the process of and government through the process of political socialization.political socialization.

Early learning/experiences is the most Early learning/experiences is the most influential because it sets a foundation for influential because it sets a foundation for belief patterns. belief patterns.

Early learning affects later learning.Early learning affects later learning. There are several agents of political There are several agents of political

socialization.socialization.

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Agents of Political SocializationAgents of Political Socialization

FamilyFamily SchoolsSchools Mass MediaMass Media PeersPeers

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Agents of Political SocializationAgents of Political Socialization

Political Institutions and LeadersPolitical Institutions and Leaders ChurchesChurches

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How Americans Think PoliticallyHow Americans Think Politically

Cultural ThinkingCultural Thinking Ideological ThinkingIdeological Thinking Group ThinkingGroup Thinking Partisan ThinkingPartisan Thinking

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Cultural ThinkingCultural Thinking

This theory suggests that our shared values This theory suggests that our shared values of liberty, equality, and individualism shape of liberty, equality, and individualism shape how we think politically.how we think politically.

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Ideological ThinkingIdeological Thinking

IdeologyIdeology-consistent pattern of political -consistent pattern of political attitudes that stems from a core beliefattitudes that stems from a core belief– to measure ideology need to look at beliefs to measure ideology need to look at beliefs

about the scope of government intervention in about the scope of government intervention in economy and social values (should the economy and social values (should the government promote traditional values or government promote traditional values or should the government not favor any particular should the government not favor any particular set of values)set of values)

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Ideological Thinking: Some Ideological Thinking: Some TermsTerms

LiberalsLiberals ConservativesConservatives LibertariansLibertarians Populists Populists NeoliberalismNeoliberalism Left WingLeft Wing ConservativismConservativism NeoconservativismNeoconservativism Religious ConservativismReligious Conservativism Right WingRight Wing

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Ideological ThinkingIdeological Thinking

Don’t confuse ideology (liberal v. Don’t confuse ideology (liberal v. conservative) with party identification conservative) with party identification (Democrats v. Republicans)(Democrats v. Republicans)

According to a 2009 Gallup poll:According to a 2009 Gallup poll:– 40% identify as conservatives40% identify as conservatives– 36% identify as moderates36% identify as moderates– 21% identify as liberals21% identify as liberals– Over the past decade the percentage of people Over the past decade the percentage of people

calling themselves moderates has declined.calling themselves moderates has declined.

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Ideological ThinkingIdeological Thinking

Problem with ideology is that people aren’t Problem with ideology is that people aren’t always consistent in their beliefsalways consistent in their beliefs

Political elites tend to be more ideologically Political elites tend to be more ideologically consistent than the average personconsistent than the average person

No more than 1/3 of Americans hold No more than 1/3 of Americans hold consistent opinions across issuesconsistent opinions across issues

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Ideological ThinkingIdeological Thinking

1950 Study the American Voter created 4 1950 Study the American Voter created 4 classificationsclassifications– ideologues 12% of populationideologues 12% of population– group benefits voters 42%group benefits voters 42%– nature of the times voters 24%nature of the times voters 24%– no issue content voters 22%no issue content voters 22%

However, examining ideology is still helpful However, examining ideology is still helpful in discussing broad patterns of opinions. in discussing broad patterns of opinions.

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Group Thinking: The Outlook of Group Thinking: The Outlook of ManyMany

More important than ideology in determining More important than ideology in determining attitudes.attitudes.– ReligionReligion– ClassClass– RegionRegion– Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity– GenderGender– AgeAge

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Group Thinking: The Outlook of Group Thinking: The Outlook of ManyMany

Crosscutting cleavagesCrosscutting cleavages because because everyone belongs to multiple groups, no one everyone belongs to multiple groups, no one factor dominates in determining attitudesfactor dominates in determining attitudes

““[C]ross cutting cleavages encourage [C]ross cutting cleavages encourage individuals to appreciate and understand individuals to appreciate and understand differences, which leads them toward differences, which leads them toward moderate opinions” (Patterson, 2006, p. moderate opinions” (Patterson, 2006, p. 214).214).

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Partisan ThinkingPartisan Thinking

Party identificationParty identification-refers to a person’s ingrained -refers to a person’s ingrained sense of loyalty to a political partysense of loyalty to a political party– Largest source of division on opinion; emotional Largest source of division on opinion; emotional

attachment to a particular partyattachment to a particular party– 2/3s identify as Democrats or Republicans; 1/3 2/3s identify as Democrats or Republicans; 1/3

independents (but even most independents say they independents (but even most independents say they lean toward one party or another)lean toward one party or another)

– For most adults party identification is stable and does For most adults party identification is stable and does not change over adult lifenot change over adult life

– attachment influenced by childhood socializationattachment influenced by childhood socialization

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The Power of Public OpinionThe Power of Public Opinion

The extent to which one believes politicians The extent to which one believes politicians should heed public opinion is determined by should heed public opinion is determined by belief in the delegate or trustee modelbelief in the delegate or trustee model– Delegates believe that politicians should comply Delegates believe that politicians should comply

with public opinionwith public opinion– Trustees believe that politicians should act Trustees believe that politicians should act

within their own consciencewithin their own conscience

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The Power of Public OpinionThe Power of Public Opinion

– To what extent are politicians responsive to To what extent are politicians responsive to public opinion?public opinion? Somewhat responsive if the issue is Somewhat responsive if the issue is

controversial/highly visiblecontroversial/highly visible For other issues it limits policy options available to For other issues it limits policy options available to

politicians; identifies what people will clearly NOT go politicians; identifies what people will clearly NOT go forfor

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The Power of Public OpinionThe Power of Public Opinion

““One of the best indicators of the power of One of the best indicators of the power of public opinion is the great effort made by public opinion is the great effort made by political leaders to harness it in support of political leaders to harness it in support of their goals…for this reason and others, their goals…for this reason and others, great effort is made to organize and great effort is made to organize and represent public opinion through elections, represent public opinion through elections, political parties, interest groups, the news political parties, interest groups, the news media, and political institutions” (Patterson, media, and political institutions” (Patterson, 2006, p. 220)2006, p. 220)