Chapter 5: Fossil

Fuel Resources

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Fossil Fuels

Account for about 82% of the planet’s

energy consumption

1. Crude Oil

2. Coal

3. Natural Gas

Not all the same

Availability

Energy Capacity

Climate Impact

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Let’s Take a Look

Worldwide consumption

Estimated remaining resource base

Cost per unit of energy

CO2 emissions of various fossil fuels.

The Future of Fossil Fuel Energy

Production

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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What are Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels are sourced from prehistoric

caches of carbonaceous materials

compressed into energy-dense solids,

liquids or gasses that can fuel human

energy needs.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Types of Fossil Fuels

Primary Fossil Fuels

Coal – stationary energy production (can’t use in ICE)

Oil – flexible (stationary or mobile), but requires

refining.

Natural Gas (or just gas) – pretty useful stuff.

Emerging Fossil Fuels

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

But they are not the same

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Table 5-2. Energy density and typical 2005-2015 cost

range for coal, petroleum, and natural gas

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-2. Fossil fuel component of worldwide energy

production, 2000 and 2012

Note: Total value of pie: for 2000, 416 EJ (394 quads); for 2007, 533 EJ (524 quads)

Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Fossil Fuels are “New”

Fossil fuels are a relatively new thing,

introduced only about 0.04% of human

existence ago!

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-11. Long-term view of fossil fuel production for years AD 0-3000 with

projection for “robust” world fossil fuel scenario for years AD 1800-2500

Assumptions: EUR of 500,000 EJ for all types of fossil fuels

Projection of “long-term fossil fuel availability” scenario

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Upstream Losses

Coal extraction costs including

transportation are estimated to be 2-4%.

Petroleum upstream losses are on the

order of 17%.

Gas losses are estimated at 12%.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Consumption by Type (2005 and 2012)

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Reserves and Resources

Reserve - A proven quantity of fossil fuel

known to exist in a given location within

agreed tolerances on the accuracy of

estimating fuel quantities.

Resource – An estimated quantity of fuel

yet to be fully explored and evaluated.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Reserves by Type (2004 and 2014)

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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OIL

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Table 5-1. Available end products from the refining of crude

petroleum, in order of increasing viscosity

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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COAL

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Coal Reserves and Resources

One estimate is that the worldwide coal resource is 5 times the

known reserve.

Coal energy reserves are 4 times that of oil or gas.

Coal energy resource is likely that much higher as well.

Coal fired energy production will likely extend much further into the

future than gas or oil based energy production.

China and the US have small oil reserves (and thus resources) and

will continue to rely on imports until our habits change.

Reserve to consumption data cannot accurately predict when we will

run out (because of the unknown nature of resources), but can likely

predict what will run out first…NOT COAL!

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-4. U.S. petroleum output including all states, 1900-2008

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-6. Annual and Cumulative U.S. petroleum output including all states,

1900-2008

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-7. Comparison of observed and estimated cumulative consumption

curves for U.S. conventional petroleum production, 1900-2005

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-5. World oil production data 1900-2006, with three best-fit projections

as a function of EUR values of 2.5 trillion, 3.25 trillion, and 4 trillion barrels

EUR – Estimated Ultimate Recovery

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Peaking

Predicting the peak availability of any fossil fuel is of tremendous interest from a policy perspective.

The decline afterwards can incur great societal pressures.

An EUR of 4 Trillion Barrels suggests a peak in oil production around 2030 with a 36% decline over the following 40 years.

All indications are that the demand will continue to increase during this decline.

This creates opportunities for new extraction techniques and for nonconventional fossil fuels.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Nonconventional Fossil Fuels

Oil Shale – Sedimentary rock with fossil organic matter. Oil is extracted by heating.

Tar Sands – Sands mixed with highly viscous hydrocarbon tar. Tar is extracted by heating.

Synthetic Gas/Liquid Fuels products from Coal – Potential for a natural gas substitute and synthetic diesel fuel.

Gas from Advanced Extraction Techniques – Fracking.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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CO2 Coal: C + O2 → CO2 + 30 MJ/kg

Oil: C8H18 + 12.5 O2 = 8 CO2 + 9 H2O + 50 MJ/kg

Gas: CH4 + 2 O2 = CO2 + 2 H2O + 50 MJ/kg

Molecular weights: Carbon 12, Oxygen 16, Hydrogen 1 or Methane 16, CO2 44, gasoline 114

Coal → 8.18 MJ/kg CO2, Gasoline → 16.1 MJ/kg CO2 and Natural gas → 18.2 MJ/kg CO2 IF YOU ARE INTERESTED ONLY IN CO2 production per unit of energy. DECARBONIZATION – replacing coal as an energy source with gas or oil. Good for Canada, not so for US or China. Will get bad for everyone when gas and oil deplete.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Non-Conventional Fossils

Tar Sands – about 3.6 trillion barrels in Canada and Venezuela. Conversion in Alberta, CN produced about 1 million barrels a day in 2005. Oil Shales – about 2.6 trillion barrels in US, Brazil, Asia, Europe and Middle East

Cost more (about twice as much) to convert to oil/gas.

Gasification of coal has been going on in North Dakota since 1985 and produces natural gas clean enough to introduce into the pipeline grid. Still costs too much.

Twice the upstream costs and correspondingly more CO2 load.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Figure 5-11. Long-term view of fossil fuel production for years AD 0-3000 with

projection for “robust” world fossil fuel scenario for years AD 1800-2500

Assumptions: EUR of 500,000 EJ for all types of fossil fuels

Projection of “long-term fossil fuel availability” scenario

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Fossil Fuels

Concern about fossil fuel availability, particularly oil and natural gas is a major driver of our present efforts in energy system transformation. Coal is the most plentiful and cheapest, but is also emits the highest quantities of CO2 per unit of energy released.

At current rates of consumption, fossil fuels are relatively scarce.

Precise analysis of rise, peak and decline in usage, better understanding of reserves and resources, and non-conventional sourcing from oil shale, tar sands and synthetic fuel from coal make this a moving target.

T

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Fossil Fuels Remembered

A Catalyst for Innovation

An endowment of “seed money” from the natural world

A stepping stone to the development of new energy systems

OR

The cause of permanent degradation of the planetary ecosystem